Strategic Memo

Date: March 16, 2016

To: Interested Parties
Fr: Kevin Artl, Kirk for Senate Campaign Manager
Re: The Coming Race

Illinois Choice: An Independent Leader, Strong on National

Security & Protecting Veterans vs. A Record of Partisanship &
Incompetence
The Choice
Last night, Sen. Mark Kirk secured a resounding victory in the Republican primary for
U.S. Senate.
Illinois voters now turn their attention to November and a clear choice: a candidate with
an independent record of accomplishment in the U.S. Senate or a reckless and partisan
politician with a record of incompetence and neglect in the care of veterans.
The general election will be decided on four issues where the contrasts between Mark
Kirk and Tammy Duckworth are greatest: national security, protecting veterans, the
economy along with the role of government, and independent leadership.
On each of these issues, Sen. Kirk holds significant leads with voters and is well
positioned to grow and consolidate a winning coalition in the coming race.
A Winner
Mark Kirk is a winner.
Underestimated and counted out of every race hes ever run, Mark Kirk will once again
win in November the same way he has won before.
Sen. Kirk starts the general election campaign in a familiar spot with a challenge of
winning in a state where Democrats greatly outnumber Republicans and where tens of
millions of liberal special interest dollars will be spent to defeat him.
He can, and will, overcome these challenges. Heres how.
Sen. Kirk has overcome long odds in life and in every political race he has ever entered.
Hes overcome illness and a long, grueling regimen of rehabilitation. Sen. Kirk promised
to never stop fighting for the people of Illinois and is forged with a sense of clarity and
purpose to put Illinois above the hyper-partisan gridlock created by Washington
politicians like Tammy Duckworth.

In elections past, Mark Kirk consistently outperforms the top of the ticket. In his 2004
Congressional race he outperformed the top of the ticket by 17 points. In 2006, he
outperformed by 13 points; in 2008 by 16 points; and in 2010 Senate race by 2 points.
In 2012, Duckworth actually underperformed President Obama by 3 points.
While Sen. Kirk brings people together, reaches across the political aisle and opposes
his party when he disagrees on issues, Tammy Duckworth is the quintessential
Washington partisan who puts her own political ambitions and her party above all else.
Recently, Sen. Kirk, citing his duty to the people of Illinois, stated his support for
conducting hearings on consideration of the next Supreme Court nominee. Duckworth
can point to no examples where she has taken on her own party and put the people of
Illinois above her partisan interests.
Turnout
While some pundits like to predict turnout spikes based on partisanship or even
candidate traits in presidential election years, data demonstrates that turnout in Illinois
consistently follows historical patterns. Put simply, there are no environmental or
geographic anomalies over the last 12 years.
Robust Fundraising Infrastructure
In this cycle, Sen. Kirk has raised over $8.6 million from more than 20,000 contributors.
During the last two quarters alone, the campaign has added over 7,000 new donors to
the campaigns database.
National Security
2016 will be a national security election.
Internal polling shows 23 percent of respondents say foreign affairs issues like national
defense, terrorism and homeland security are the issues they are most interested in.
Among voters, foreign affairs concerns have more than doubled since last year. This
changing issues environment favors Sen. Kirk.
Specifically, Tammy Duckworth supports bringing 200,000 Syrian refugees into the U.S.
Sen. Kirk opposes allowing any Syrian refugees into the U.S. until it can be done safely.
By a 21-point margin (53-32), Illinois voters support Sen. Kirks plan vs. Duckworths
reckless idea.
Sen. Kirk is providing national leadership on security issues at a time when Iran is saber
rattling and expanding their influence across the Middle East and ISIS is printing fake
passports and infiltrating the West to conduct horrific acts of terror.
Sen. Kirk opposes the presidents reckless call to close the prison at Guantanamo Bay
while Tammy Duckworth wants to bring dozens of terrorists to the United States and
ship others to failed states where they will most certainly rejoin their war on the West.
When Illinois voters learn more about Rep. Duckworths reckless, partisan record the
gap will continue to grow and support for Sen. Kirk will solidify.

Veterans
On one of the most critical issues facing Illinois and Americacaring for our veterans
Sen. Kirk is leading by holding the VA accountable and exposing a record of
incompetence, cover-ups and neglect.
In contrast, Rep. Duckworths failures to administer and advocate on behalf of Illinois
veterans has been highlighted in recent new stories as more whistleblowers and former
employees (now a total of four individuals) speak publicly about their experiences
with Duckworth in her service at the Illinois VA and then in Congress.
In early April, Illinois and national media will turn their attention to the case and the
damning testimony of the two IDVA whistleblowers. The resulting coverage is certain to
damage Rep. Duckworth and spotlight her shameful history of putting her political
career ahead of her duty to veterans in need.
Voters prefer Sen. Kirks record on advocating for veterans compared to Cong.
Duckworths record of mismanagement and failure while working as Illinois Director of
Veterans Affairs under Gov. Rod Blagojevich. Internal polling shows Sen. Kirk holds a 29
percent advantage with Illinois voters (53-24 percent) on which candidate is stronger on
protecting veterans.
Bottom line: Tammy Duckworth promised to fight for veterans but repeatedly failed to
deliver for them. Sen. Kirk is leading the fight to end the troubles with the VA and fix
Illinois failing VA hospitals.
Economy
Sen. Kirk is a recognized leader on calling for a balanced budget amendment, lower
taxes and holding government accountable.
Rep. Duckworth has never seen a tax increase she does not support and would be a
certain rubber stamp for the most partisan budget and tax proposals.
Illinois voters consistently put fiscal sanity above partisan ideology.
Sen. Kirk will exploit this advantage and challenge Rep. Duckworth to explain her lack of
substance on fiscal issues, jobs and the economy.
Bottom Line
As Sen. Kirk intensifies his preparations for the fall campaign, Tammy Duckworth will
begin preparing for her trial and trying to explain her positions on national security-positions that are at odds with the vast majority of Illinois voters.
Furthermore, Tuesdays primary demonstrated that Hillary Clinton will not bring the
coattails to Democrat races in Illinois that President Obama had in the past.
The election will come down to independent voters and big issue differences, especially
on national security, as well as Tammy Duckworths failures at the VA, her hyperpartisan record and her ongoing legal issues.

Ultimately, the accumulation of negative attention on Tammy Duckworth will do

significant damage with that key voting bloc, whereas Sen. Kirks brand of thoughtful,
independent leadership has been embraced by Illinois independent voters election after
election.