Excedance Probability

10100

Flow (cfs)

8100

6100

4100

2100

100
-3.1000
0.999

0.99

-2.1000

0.95

-1.1000
0.9
0.8

0.7

-0.1000
0.5
0.6

0.4

0.3

0.9000
0.2

0.1

0.05

1.9000

0.01

2.9000
0.001

4/7

Excedance Probability

100000

Flow (cfs)

10000

1000

100
-3.1000
0.999

0.99

-2.1000

0.95

-1.1000
0.9
0.8

0.7

-0.1000
0.5
0.6

0.4

0.3

0.9000
0.2

0.1

0.05

1.9000

0.01

2.9000
0.001

5/7

c) The log-normal probability distribution (shown in 1b) seems most appropriate because it plots
rather cleanly along the indicated line. In contrast, the normal probability distribution shows a
reasonable amount of curvature (not a straight line).
d) Since the data appear to be log-normally distributed, I will use the sample statistics reported in 1b to
estimate the population curve as:
Return Period
2
5
10
50
100

Probability
0.5
0.8
0.9
0.98
0.99

K
0
0.841621
1.281552
2.053749
2.326348

Q in log scale
3.156338238
3.399794083
3.527052767
3.750426357
3.829281082

Q in ordinary scale
1433.303754
2510.695723
3365.524579
5628.936598
6749.647336
K

6/7

Problem 2:

7/7