By

Steven D'Souza
Diana Renner

Christine and Silverio D Souza

Margit and Petru Gheorghiu


& 008 011

PART 1

Chapter 1
1-1 020
1-2 024
1-3 026
1-4 030
1-5 033
1-6 039

Chapter 2
2-1 045
2-2 049
2-3 055
2-4 060
2-5 062

Chapter 3
3-1 069
3-2 071
3-3 073

3-4 079

PART 2

Chapter 4
4-1 086
4-2 090
4-3 094
4-4 101
4-5 112

Chapter 5
5-1 119
5-2 123
5-3 127
5-4 131
5-5 134
5-6 137
5-7 140

PART 3

Chapter 6
6-1 149

6-2 156
6-3 162
6-4 166
6-5 172
6-6 176
6-7 180
6-8 184
6-9 186

Chapter 7
7-1 193
7-2 197
7-3 199
7-4 204
7-5 208
7-6 211
7-7 214

Chapter 8
8-1 223
8-2 227
8-3 232
8-4 236
8-5 239

8-6 242
8-7 246
8-8 249
8-9 252
8-10 256

Chapter 9
9-1 261
9-2 264
9-3 267
9-4 270
9-5 273
9-6 276
9-7 279
9-8 284

288

01 293
02 301

308
312

Foreword

Not Knowing:
The Art of Turning Uncertainty into Opportunity

Marty Linsky
Cambridge Leadership Associates
Leadership on the LineThe Practice of Adaptive
Leadership

2014 3 20

10

Introduction

Not Knowing:
The Art of Turning Uncertainty into Opportunity

11

Not

Knowing

12

Craiova
Oltenia

Stefan

Radio Free Europe

Ceausescu
1987

13

 1987

2000

2006

30

14

Antonio Machado

15

PART I

The Dangers
of
Knowledge

16

17

Chapter

The Dangers
of
Knowledge

Chapter 1

Not Knowing:

The Art of Turning Uncertainty into Opportunity

1-1

Knowledge is Powerful

Sir Francis Bacon

Part I : The Dangers of Knowledge

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

20

Chapter 1: The Dangers of Knowledge

David Rock
3

Michael Gazzaniga

21

YOUR KNOWLEDGE

NEW IDEAS
FREEDOM
C R E AT I V I T Y
FLUIDITY
SILENCE
E XC I T E M E N T
C O U R AG E
MINDFULNESS
O P P O RT U N I T Y
INTELL IGENCE
TSUNAMI
CURIOSITY
BASE
AXPERIENCE
LEARNING
LIGHT
AWA R E N E S S
I N F O R M AT I O N
R E A L I Z AT I O N
S PAC E
IMMUNITY
FLEXIBILITY
INTELLIGENCE

Chapter 1

Not Knowing:
The Art of Turning Uncertainty into Opportunity

1-2

The Allure of the Known

1537 Padua
Andreas Vesalius

35

5
1514 Brussels

6
7

Part I : The Dangers of Knowledge

GalenPergamon

24

Chapter 1: The Dangers of Knowledge

1400

25

Chapter 1

Not Knowing:
The Art of Turning Uncertainty into Opportunity

1-3

Overconfidence Blinkers

Daniel Kahneman

Maximilien de RobespierreGalileo Lovano

Bonnie Prince LorenzoWounded KneeQueen
ShaddockPygmalionMurphys Last Ride

Doctor Faustus
243
MBA

Part I : The Dangers of Knowledge

26

Chapter 1: The Dangers of Knowledge


10

11

12

50

94
X
13

14

Heraclitus

27

IntelAndy Grove 1995

Richard S Tedlow
1950

15
1996
Taking
Dr Thomas A Stamey
on Prostrate Cancer

Part I : The Dangers of Knowledge

28

Chapter 1: The Dangers of Knowledge


16

29

Chapter 1

Not Knowing:
The Art of Turning Uncertainty into Opportunity

1-4

The limits of Specialization

Albert Einstein

17
I

Part I : The Dangers of Knowledge

30

Chapter 1: The Dangers of Knowledge

The Curse of Knowledge Chip and Dan Heath

18

anchoring bias

19
The International AIDS Vaccine Initiative

Andy Zynga
20

14
34

31

Expert Political Judgement21

Philip Tetlock 2,500
Archilochus

22

Part I : The Dangers of Knowledge

32

Chapter 1: The Dangers of Knowledge

Chapter 1

Not Knowing:
The Art of Turning Uncertainty into Opportunity

1-5

Wilful Blindness

Heraclitus

Libby Montana
2,600
Kootenai River

50

80

ground

zero
the

33

WR Grace Company 1963

1960 1955

Bob Wilkins
1960 1990

30

Gayla Benefield
I

Part I : The Dangers of Knowledge

Erin Brockovich23
40
30

36

Chapter 1: The Dangers of Knowledge

24

Paul Peronard

25

37

26

Part I : The Dangers of Knowledge

38

Chapter 1: The Dangers of Knowledge

Chapter 1

Not Knowing:

The Art of Turning Uncertainty into Opportunity

1-6

The Pretence of Knowledge

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Friedrich Hayek 1974

The Pretense of Knowledge

27
2008 11 Lehman Brothers

Queen Elizabeth II

2009 6 17 the British Academy

2009 7 26

39

the Bank ofInternational Settlements

the Bank of England

28

Part I : The Dangers of Knowledge

Alan Greenspanthe Federal

Reserve ofthe US

40

Chapter 1: The Dangers of Knowledge

29

2013 1,441 30

10 15

Gerd Gigerenzerthe
Max Planck Institute

31
2008
32

41

32

 (CIP)

Steven D'Souza Diana Renner

2016.03

320 2016.5 Catch On HC0046

Not knowingthe art of turning uncertainty into opportunity

ISBN 978-986-5695-44-6
1. 2. 3.
494.2

105001570

Not Knowing: The Art of Turning Uncertainty into Opportunity by Steven D Souza and Diana
Renner
Copyright 2014 Steven D Souza and Diana Renner
Copyright 2014 LID Publishing
Copyright licensed by LID Publishing
arranged with Andrew Nurnberg Associates International Limited
Complex Chinese Translation copyright 2016
by Briefing Press, a Division of AND Publishing Ltd.
All rights reserved.

Not Knowing: The Art of Turning Uncertainty into Opportunity

Catch On HC0046 Steven DSouza

Diana Renner
RINO
Briefing Press 333 11 402271820010227181258
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2016 3 320 ISBN 978-986-5695-44-6 Printed

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