CRIPPLED CAPITALISM

Capitalism versus Financialism

Gordon T Long
4/13/2016

MARCH 2016 Edition

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CRIPPLED CAPITALISM
Capitalism versus Financialism
APRIL MONTHLY MARKET COMMENTARY
EXECUTIVE BRIEF .................................................................................................................................. 3
MARKET MESSAGE ....................................................................................................................................................................... 3
I DEFINING CHARTS ..................................................................................................................................................................11
Defining Chart #3 - The Big M and Super Cycle b .................................................................................................................... 12
Defining Chart #4 Intermediate Term Topping Process ............................................................................................................. 13
Boundary Conditions .......................................................................................................................................................................... 14
Channels & Regressions ................................................................................................................................................................... 15
II TARGETS .................................................................................................................................................................................24
III QUARTERLY SENTIMENT RISK AND FUNDAMENTALS ..................................................................................................28
SENTIMENT ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 28
RISK ANALYSIS - Complacency ..................................................................................................................................................... 35
NEW-FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS Valuation Summary ............................................................................................................ 36
IV STUDIES..................................................................................................................................................................................37
MARKET BOUNCE A Retracement or Market Turn? .............................................................................................................37
CHARTS OF NOTE ............................................................................................................................................................................ 37
Q1 EARNINGS An impending macroeconomic and profits implosion ...........................................................................46
STUDY: Q1 EARNINGS ..............................................................................................................................................................46
CHARTS OF NOTE ............................................................................................................................................................................ 46
BUYBACKS Slowing Due to Debt-Credit Rating Concerns .................................................................................................51
STUDY: BUYBACKS .....................................................................................................................................................................51
CHARTS OF NOTE ............................................................................................................................................................................ 51
US RECESSION RUMBLINGS ......................................................................................................................................................55
CHARTS OF NOTE ............................................................................................................................................................................ 55
V - TRIGGER$ ZONES ...................................................................................................................................................................61
VI - DRIVER$ & BIA$ .....................................................................................................................................................................62
CRIPPLED CAPITALISM CAPITALISM VERSUS FINANCIALISM VERSUS FASCISM ........................................... 63
MAESTRO GREENSPAN A Legacy of Obfuscation ...........................................................................................................63
CAPITALISM Requires Savings ...............................................................................................................................................64
CAPITALISM Requires Productive Investment of Savings ..................................................................................................64
CAPITALISM Requires Gains in Productivity ........................................................................................................................68
CAPITALISM Delivers an Increased Standard of Living .......................................................................................................70
CAPITALISM Requires a Free Market System .......................................................................................................................71
MASSIVE SHIFTS OCCURRING Reacting Wrongly ...............................................................................................................74
CONCLUSION ................................................................................................................................................................................75

MARCH 2016 Edition

Copyright 2016 GordonTLong.com

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