Crude Oil Demand Supply 2016 by Yardeni Globdemsup

Energy Briefing:
Global Crude Oil

Demand & Supply
Yardeni Research, Inc.
January 21, 2016
Dr. Edward Yardeni

516-972-7683
eyardeni@yardeni.com
Debbie Johnson
480-664-1333
djohnson@yardeni.com
Please visit our sites at

www.yardeni.com
blog.yardeni.com
thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents
Table Of Contents
Crude Oil Price

World Oil Demand & Supply
Oil Demand/Supply Ratio
Oil Supply: OPEC & Non-OPEC
Crude Oil Output
Oil Demand: World
Oil Demand: World, OECD, Non-OECD
Oil Demand: G7
Oil Demand: Europe
Oil Demand: Asia, OPEC, Middle East
Oil Demand: Asia
Oil Demand: FSU & Eastern Europe
Oil Demand: Latin America
Oil Supply: OPEC
Oil Supply: Non-OPEC Americas
Oil Supply: Non-OPEC Europe
Oil Supply: Non-OPEC Africa/Middle East
Oil Supply: Non-OPEC Asia
Oil Supply: Big Producers
Oil Demand
January 21, 2016 / Energy Briefing: Global Crude Oil Demand & Supply
1
2-3
4
5
6
7
8-9
10-12
13
14
15-16
17
18-19
20-21
22
23
24
25
26
27-28

www.yardeni.com
Crude Oil Price

Figure 1.
170
170
CRUDE OIL FUTURES PRICES*

(dollars per barrel)
150
150
130
130
110
110
90
90
70
70
Brent Crude Oil Price

50
50
West Texas Intermediate

Crude Oil Price
30
30
1/20
yardeni.com
10
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
10
2017
* Nearby futures price.

Source: Haver Analytics.
Figure 2.
30
30
CRUDE OIL FUTURES PRICES*

(dollars per barrel)
20
20
Spread between Brent and WTI

Crude Oil Nearby Futures
10
10
1/20
-10
-10
yardeni.com
-20
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
-20
2017
* Nearby futures price.

Source: Haver Analytics.
Page 1 / January 21, 2016 / Energy Briefing: Global Crude Oil Demand & Supply

www.yardeni.com

Figure 3.
96
94
92
90
88
86
84
82
80
78
76
74
72
70
68
WORLD CRUDE OIL SUPPLY*
Nov
(million barrels per day, 12-month average)
Source of Data
Oil Market Intelligence (OMI)

US Department of Energy (DOE)
yardeni.com
66
94
96
94
92
90
88
86
84
82
80
78
76
74
72
70
68
66
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
Oil Demand (OMI)

Supply (DOE)
yardeni.com
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
WORLD CRUDE OIL DEMAND & SUPPLY*
16
Oil Demand (OMI)

Supply (OMI)
yardeni.com
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
96
94
92
90
88
86
84
82
80
78
76
74
72
70
68
66
17
Nov
66
17
Nov
94
97
95
93
91
89
87
85
83
81
79
77
75
73
71
69
67
65
95
96
94
92
90
88
86
84
82
80
78
76
74
72
70
68
97
95
93
91
89
87
85
83
81
79
77
75
73
71
69
67
65
17
*Supply and demand data are not strictly comparable since they are based on different sources and on estimates.
Source: Oil Market Intelligence and Department of Energy.

www.yardeni.com

Figure 4.
98
96
94
92
90
88
86
84
82
80
78
76
74
72
70
68
66
WORLD CRUDE OIL SUPPLY*

(million barrels per day)
Source of Data
Oil Market Intelligence (OMI)
US Department of Energy (DOE)
yardeni.com
94
100
95
Nov
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
98
96
94
92
90
88
86
84
82
80
78
76
74
72
70
68
66
17
100

Nov
95
90
90
85
85
80
Oil Demand (OMI)
80
75
Supply (DOE)
75
70
70
65
65
yardeni.com
60
94
100
95
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
60
17
100

Nov
95
90
90
85
85
80
80
Oil Demand (OMI)
75
75
Supply (OMI)
70
70
65
65
yardeni.com
60
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
60
17
*Supply and demand data are not strictly comparable since they are based on different sources and on estimates.
Source: Oil Market Intelligence and Department of Energy.

www.yardeni.com
Oil Demand/Supply Ratio

Figure 5.
1.12
1.12
WORLD CRUDE
OIL DEMAND/SUPPLY RATIO*
1.10
1.10
1.08
1.08
1.06
1.06
1.04
1.04
1.02
1.02
Nov
1.00
yardeni.com
94
95
96
1.00
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
* 12-month average of world crude oil demand as a ratio of 12-month average of world crude supply
Source: Oil Market Intelligence.
Figure 6.
1.07
135
WORLD CRUDE OIL DEMAND/SUPPLY RATIO & BRENT CRUDE OIL PRICE
120
1.06
105
Oil Demand/Supply Ratio*
90
Brent Crude Oil

Futures Price**
(yearly percent change)
1.05
75
60
45
1.04
30
15
1.03
0
-15
1.02
-30
1/20
1.01
-45
Nov
1.00
-60
yardeni.com
2005
2006
-75
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
* 12-month average of world crude oil demand as a ratio of 12-month average world crude supply.
** Nearby futures price.
Source: Oil Market Intelligence and Financial Times.

www.yardeni.com
Oil Supply: OPEC & Non-OPEC

Figure 7.
58
56
CRUDE OIL OUTPUT: OPEC & NON-OPEC (OMI Data)
58
Nov
56
54
54
Non-OPEC (57.0)
52
52
50
50
48
48
46
46
44
44
42
42
40
40
Nov
38
38
36
36
OPEC (39.0)
34
34
32
32
30
30
28
28
26
24
26
yardeni.com
93
94
95
24
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
Figure 8.
65
65
CRUDE OIL OUTPUT: OPEC & NON-OPEC (DOE Data)

Jun
55
55
Non-OPEC
45
45
Jun
Total OPEC
35
35
25
25
yardeni.com
15
15
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Source: US Department of Energy.

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Crude Oil Output

Figure 9.
40
CRUDE OIL OUTPUT: OPEC (OMI vs. DOE data)
40
Nov

36
36
32
32
28
28
24
24
OMI
DOE
20
20
16
16
yardeni.com
12
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
14
16
12
18
Source: US Department of Energy and Oil Market Intelligence.
Figure 10.
62
60
62
CRUDE OIL OUTPUT: NON-OPEC (OMI vs. DOE data)

60
58
58
Nov
56
56
54
54
52
52
50
50
48
48
46
46
OMI
44
44
DOE
42
42
40
40
yardeni.com
38
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
14
16
38
18
Source: US Department of Energy and Oil Market Intelligence.

www.yardeni.com
Oil Demand: World

Figure 11.
96
94
Nov
CRUDE OIL DEMAND
96
94
92
92
90
90
88
88
World (95.2)
86
86
84
84
82
82
80
80
78
78
76
76
74
74
72
72
70
70
68
68
66
66
64
64
62
60
62
yardeni.com
60
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Figure 12.
5
CRUDE OIL DEMAND
(yearly percent change in 12-month average)

4
3
Nov
-1
-1
World (2.4)
-2
-2
-3
-3
-4
yardeni.com
-4
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

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Figure 13.
55
55
CRUDE OIL DEMAND

50
50
Nov
Nov
45
45
40
40
35
35
30
30
OECD-34 (46.2)
Non-OECD* (49.0)
25
20
25
yardeni.com
93
94
95
20
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
* Total excluding OECD-34

Figure 14.
10
10
CRUDE OIL DEMAND

8
OECD-34 (1.2)
Non-OECD* (3.5)
4
Nov
2
Nov
-2
-2
-4
-4
-6
yardeni.com
-6
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
* Total excluding OECD-34.

www.yardeni.com

Figure 15.
60
57
CRUDE OIL DEMAND
54
60
Nov
54
New World:
Total World Minus US, Western Europe, & Japan
51
51
Old World:
US, Western Europe, & Japan
48
57
48
45
45
42
42
39
39
Nov
36
36
33
33
30
30
yardeni.com
27
27
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Figure 16.
8
CRUDE OIL DEMAND

6
4
Nov
-2
-2
-4
-6
New World:
Total World Minus US, Western Europe, & Japan
Old World:
US, Western Europe, & Japan
-4
-6
yardeni.com
-8
-8
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

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Oil Demand: G7
Figure 17.
38
38
CRUDE OIL DEMAND

OECD G7* (32.9)
36
36
34
34
Nov
32
30
32
yardeni.com
30
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
* Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, United States, and US territories.
Figure 18.
22
21
22
CRUDE OIL DEMAND
21
United States (19.4)
20
20
Nov
19
19
18
18
17
17
Western Europe (13.6)
16
16
15
15
14
Nov
13
14
13
yardeni.com
12
12
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

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Oil Demand: G7
Figure 19.
6.0
5.8
6.0
CRUDE OIL DEMAND
5.8
5.6
5.6
Japan (4.3)
5.4
5.4
5.2
5.2
5.0
5.0
4.8
4.8
4.6
4.6
4.4
4.4
Nov
4.2
4.0
3.8
4.2
4.0
yardeni.com
3.8
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Figure 20.
2.6
2.6
CRUDE OIL DEMAND

2.4
2.4
Canada (2.3)
Nov
2.2
2.2
2.0
2.0
1.8
1.8
1.6
1.6
1.4
yardeni.com
1.4
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

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Oil Demand: G7
Figure 21.
15
15
CRUDE OIL DEMAND

Europe Big 4*
Plus Japan (11.1)
14
14
13
13
12
12
11
Nov
yardeni.com
11
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
* France, Germany, Italy, and the UK.
Figure 22.
3.2
3.0
3.2
CRUDE OIL DEMAND
3.0
2.8
2.8
2.6
2.6
Nov
2.4
2.4
2.2
2.2
2.0
2.0
1.8
1.8
1.6
1.6
Germany (2.4)
France (1.7)
Italy (1.3)
UK (1.5)
Spain (1.2)
1.4
1.2
1.0
1.4
1.2
1.0
yardeni.com
.8
.8
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

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Oil Demand: Europe

Figure 23.
6.4
6.2
6.4
CRUDE OIL DEMAND
6.2
6.0
6.0
5.8
5.8
Other EU* (5.6)
5.6
Nov
5.6
5.4
5.4
5.2
5.2
5.0
5.0
4.8
4.8
4.6
4.6
4.4
4.4
4.2
4.2
4.0
yardeni.com
4.0
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
* Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Greece, Ireland, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, and Sweden.
Figure 24.
2.4
CRUDE OIL DEMAND
2.4
Nov
2.2
2.2
Other OECD Europe* (2.4)

2.0
2.0
1.8
1.8
1.6
1.6
1.4
yardeni.com
1.4
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
* Czech Republic, Hungary, Norway, Poland, Slovak Republic, Switzerland, and Turkey.

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Oil Demand: Asia, OPEC, Middle East

Figure 25.
15
15
CRUDE OIL DEMAND
(millions of barrels per day, 12-month avg)

Nov
Asia Excluding China,

South Korea, & Japan (13.2)
10
10
yardeni.com
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Figure 26.
10.0
9.5
10.0
CRUDE OIL DEMAND
Nov
9.0
9.5
9.0
Nov
8.5
8.5
8.0
8.0
7.5
7.5
7.0
OPEC*
7.0
6.5
6.0
5.5
6.5
6.0
Middle East
5.5
5.0
5.0
4.5
4.5
4.0
4.0
3.5
3.5
3.0
3.0
yardeni.com
2.5
2.5
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
* Algeria, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Neutral Zone, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Venezuela.

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Oil Demand: Asia

Figure 27.
11.2
10.6
11.2
CRUDE OIL DEMAND
Nov
10.6
10.0
10.0
9.4
9.4
8.8
8.8
8.2
8.2
China (10.8)
7.6
7.6
7.0
7.0
6.4
6.4
5.8
5.8
5.2
5.2
4.6
4.6
4.0
4.0
3.4
3.4
2.8
2.8
2.2
1.6
2.2
yardeni.com
1.6
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Figure 28.
4.4
4.2
4.4
CRUDE OIL DEMAND
Nov
(12-month average, million barrels per day)
4.2
4.0
4.0
3.8
3.8
3.6
3.6
3.4
3.4
3.2
3.2
India (4.2)
3.0
3.0
2.8
2.8
2.6
2.6
2.4
2.4
2.2
2.2
2.0
2.0
1.8
1.8
1.6
1.6
1.4
1.4
1.2
1.2
1.0
.8
1.0
yardeni.com
.8
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

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Oil Demand: Asia

Figure 29.
1.3
1.3
CRUDE OIL DEMAND
Nov
1.2
1.2
Australia & New Zealand (1.2)

1.1
1.1
1.0
1.0
.9
.9
.8
.8
.7
yardeni.com
.7
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Figure 30.
2.6
2.4
2.6
CRUDE OIL DEMAND
Nov
2.2
2.0
2.4
2.2
2.0
South Korea (2.4)
1.8
1.8
1.6
1.6
1.4
1.4
1.2
1.2
1.0
1.0
.8
.8
.6
.6
.4
yardeni.com
.4
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

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Oil Demand: FSU & Eastern Europe

Figure 31.
10
10
CRUDE OIL DEMAND

9
Former Soviet Union (4.8)
Nov
yardeni.com
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Figure 32.
1.2
1.2
CRUDE OIL DEMAND

1.1
1.1
1.0
1.0
.9
.9
Eastern Europe* (0.7)

.8
.8
.7
.7
Nov
.6
.5
.6
yardeni.com
.5
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
* Albania, Bosnia Herzegovenia, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Former Yugoslav Republic Of Macedonia, Gibraltar, Malta, Romania, Federal Republic of
Yugoslavia, Slovenia, Former Yugoslavia.

www.yardeni.com

Figure 33.
6.9
6.7
6.5
6.9
CRUDE OIL DEMAND
Nov
6.7
6.5
6.3
6.3
6.1
6.1
5.9
5.9
5.7
5.7
5.5
5.5
5.3
5.3
Latin America* (6.6)
5.1
5.1
4.9
4.9
4.7
4.7
4.5
4.5
4.3
4.3
4.1
4.1
3.9
3.9
3.7
3.7
3.5
3.5
3.3
3.3
3.1
2.9
3.1
yardeni.com
2.9
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
* Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica,
Nantilles, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Trinidad, Uruguay, Venezuela, Other Latin America.
Figure 34.
1.5
1.5
CRUDE OIL DEMAND

Nov
Latin America
Excluding Mexico and Brazil (1.3)
1.0
1.0
.5
.5
.0
yardeni.com
.0
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

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Figure 35.
3.7
3.5
3.7
CRUDE OIL DEMAND
3.5
Nov
3.3
3.3
3.1
3.1
2.9
2.9
Brazil (3.3)
2.7
2.7
2.5
2.5
2.3
2.3
2.1
2.1
1.9
1.9
1.7
1.7
1.5
1.5
yardeni.com
1.3
1.3
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Figure 36.
2.3
2.3
CRUDE OIL DEMAND

2.2
2.2
2.1
2.1
Mexico (2.0)
2.0
Nov
2.0
1.9
1.9
1.8
1.8
1.7
1.7
1.6
1.6
1.5
yardeni.com
1.5
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

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Oil Supply: OPEC

Figure 37.
42
40
CRUDE OIL SUPPLY: OPEC
.4
DUBAI
Nov
38
.3
36
34
.2
32
30
.1
28
26
Nov
24
.0
95
3.2
3.0
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
13
15
ABU DHABI
17
Nov
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
13
15
17
1.6
INDONESIA
2.8
1.4
2.6
2.4
1.2
2.2
2.0
1.0
1.8
1.6
.8
Nov
1.4
1.2
.6
95
1.4
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
13
15
17
ALGERIA
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
13
15
17
4.6
IRAN
4.2
1.2
Nov
3.8
1.0
3.4
.8
Nov
3.0
.6
2.6
.4
2.2
1.8
.2
95
2.3
2.1
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
13
15
17
ANGOLA
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
13
15
17
5.0
IRAQ
Nov
4.5
4.0
1.9
Nov
1.7
3.5
3.0
1.5
2.5
1.3
2.0
1.1
1.5
.9
1.0
.7
.5
yardeni.com
.5
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
13
15
17
95
97
99
.0
01
03
05
07
09
11
13
15
17

www.yardeni.com
Oil Supply: OPEC

Figure 38.
4
KUWAIT
.9
QATAR
.8
Nov
Nov
.7
.6
2
.5
.4
.3
0
.2
95
2.0
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
13
15
17
LIBYA
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
13
15
17
12
SAUDI ARABIA
1.6
Nov
1.2
10
.8
Nov
.4
.0
-.4
6
95
.8
.7
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
13
15
17
NEUTRAL ZONE
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
13
15
17
3.2
U.A.E.
Nov
3.0
.6
2.8
.5
2.6
.4
2.4
.3
2.2
.2
2.0
.1
1.8
Nov
.0
1.6
-.1
1.4
95
2.8
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
13
15
17
NIGERIA
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
13
15
17
4
VENEZUELA
2.6
3
2.4
Nov
2.2
2
2.0
Nov
1.8
1.6
yardeni.com
1.4
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
13
15
17
95
97
99
0
01
03
05
07
09
11
13
15
17

www.yardeni.com
Oil Supply: Non-OPEC Americas

Figure 39.
60
58
56
54
52
50
48
46
44
42
40
CRUDE OIL SUPPLY: NON-OPEC

4.0
CANADA
Nov
2.8
2.4
2.0
1.6
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
13
15
17
OTHER AMERICAS
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
13
15
COLUMBIA
17
Nov
1.0
.8
.6
.4
Nov
.2
95
12
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
13
15
NON-OPEC NGLs
17
Nov
10
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
13
15
MEXICO
6
Nov
4
2
95
.9
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
13
15
17
ARGENTINA
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
13
15
UNITED STATES
Nov
.7
.6
Nov
.4
95
3.0
2.7
2.4
2.1
1.8
1.5
1.2
.9
.6
.3
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
13
15
17
yardeni.com
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
13
15
4.6
4.2
3.8
3.4
3.0
2.6
2.2
1.8
1.4
17
.8
.5
1.2
1.1
1.0
.9
.8
.7
.6
.5
.4
17
1.0
3.6
3.2
95
1.2
Nov
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
17
BRAZIL
Nov
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
13
15
17

www.yardeni.com
Oil Supply: Non-OPEC Europe

Figure 40.
8
EUROPE
.9
OTHER EUROPE

7
.8
.7
.6
.5
Nov
Nov
.3
95
7.0
6.6
.4
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
13
15
17
NORTH SEA
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
13
15
17
.5
OTHER NORTH SEA
6.2
5.8
.4
5.4
5.0
4.6
.3
4.2
3.8
3.4
3.0
Nov
Nov
2.6
.2
2.2
1.8
.1
95
3.7
3.5
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
13
15
17
NORWAY
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
13
15
17
3
UNITED KINGDOM
3.3
3.1
2.9
2.7
2.5
2.3
2.1
Nov
1.9
1.7
Nov
1.5
1.3
yardeni.com
1.1
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
13
15
17
95
97
99
0
01
03
05
07
09
11
13
15
17

www.yardeni.com
Oil Supply: Non-OPEC Africa/Middle East

Figure 41.
5.0
AFRICA/MIDDLE EAST
2.2
OTHER AFRICA/MIDDLE EAST
2.0
4.5
1.8
1.6
4.0
1.4
Nov
3.5
Nov
1.2
3.0
1.0
95
1.0
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
13
15
17
EGYPT
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
13
15
17
.40
GABON
.9
.35
Nov
.8
.30
.7
.25
Nov
.6
.20
.5
.15
95
1.1
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
13
15
17
OMAN
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
13
15
17
.8
SYRIA
.7
1.0
Nov
.6
.5
.9
.4
.3
.8
.2
.1
.7
Nov
yardeni.com
.6
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
13
15
17
95
97
99
.0
-.1
01
03
05
07
09
11
13
15
17

www.yardeni.com
Oil Supply: Non-OPEC Asia

Figure 42.
22
20
ASIA
Nov
.8
MALAYSIA
.7
18
Nov
.6
16
.5
14
.4
12
10
.3
95
12
11
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
13
15
RUSSIA
17
Nov
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
13
15
17
1.2
OTHER ASIA
1.1
10
1.0
Nov
.9
.8
.7
.6
.5
95
.9
.8
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
13
15
17
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
13
15
17
AUSTRALIA
.7
.6
.5
Nov
.4
.3
.2
95
4.5
4.3
4.1
3.9
3.7
3.5
3.3
3.1
2.9
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
13
15
17
CHINA
Nov
95
.9
97
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
13
15
17
INDIA
Nov
.8
.7
.6
.5
yardeni.com
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
13
15
17

www.yardeni.com
Oil Supply: Big Producers

Figure 43.
14.5
13.5
14.5
CRUDE OIL OUTPUT: UNITED STATES & CANADA

vs. SAUDI ARABIA
13.5
Nov
US + Canada (13.1)
12.5
12.5
Saudi Arabia (10.2)

11.5
11.5
10.5
10.5
Nov
9.5
9.5
8.5
8.5
7.5
7.5
6.5
6.5
yardeni.com
5.5
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
5.5
17
Figure 44.
14.5
13.5
14.5
CRUDE OIL OUTPUT: UNITED STATES & CANADA

vs. RUSSIA
13.5
Nov
12.5
12.5
US + Canada (13.1)
Russia (11.1)
11.5
11.5
Nov
10.5
10.5
9.5
9.5
8.5
8.5
7.5
7.5
6.5
6.5
5.5
5.5
yardeni.com
4.5
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
4.5
17

www.yardeni.com
Oil Demand
Figure 45.
9.0
8.8
9.0
CRUDE OIL DEMAND
8.8
8.6
8.6
Europe Big 4* (6.9)
8.4
8.4
8.2
8.2
8.0
8.0
7.8
7.8
7.6
7.6
7.4
7.4
7.2
7.2
7.0
7.0
Nov
6.8
6.6
yardeni.com
6.8
6.6
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
* France, Germany, Italy, and UK.
Figure 46.
20
20
CRUDE OIL DEMAND

15
15
China (6.1)
10
10
Nov
5
-5
yardeni.com
-5
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

www.yardeni.com
Oil Demand
Figure 47.
30
30
CRUDE OIL DEMAND

25
25
20
20
India (10.2)
15
15
Nov
10
10
yardeni.com
-5
-5
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

www.yardeni.com
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Energy Briefing:

Global Crude Oil

January 21, 2016

Dr. Edward Yardeni

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thinking outside the box

Crude Oil Price

Yardeni Research, Inc.

Crude Oil Price

CRUDE OIL FUTURES PRICES*

Brent Crude Oil Price

West Texas Intermediate

* Nearby futures price.

CRUDE OIL FUTURES PRICES*

Spread between Brent and WTI

* Nearby futures price.

Yardeni Research, Inc.

World Oil Demand & Supply

WORLD CRUDE OIL SUPPLY*

(million barrels per day, 12-month average)

Oil Market Intelligence (OMI)

(million barrels per day, 12-month average)

Oil Demand (OMI)

WORLD CRUDE OIL DEMAND & SUPPLY*

Oil Demand (OMI)

(million barrels per day, 12-month average)

WORLD CRUDE OIL DEMAND & SUPPLY*

Yardeni Research, Inc.

World Oil Demand & Supply

WORLD CRUDE OIL SUPPLY*

WORLD CRUDE OIL DEMAND & SUPPLY*

Oil Demand (OMI)

WORLD CRUDE OIL DEMAND & SUPPLY*

Oil Demand (OMI)

Yardeni Research, Inc.

Oil Demand/Supply Ratio

Oil Demand/Supply Ratio*

Brent Crude Oil

Yardeni Research, Inc.

Oil Supply: OPEC & Non-OPEC

CRUDE OIL OUTPUT: OPEC & NON-OPEC (OMI Data)

(million barrels per day)

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

CRUDE OIL OUTPUT: OPEC & NON-OPEC (DOE Data)

Yardeni Research, Inc.

Crude Oil Output

CRUDE OIL OUTPUT: OPEC (OMI vs. DOE data)

(million barrels per day)

Source: US Department of Energy and Oil Market Intelligence.

CRUDE OIL OUTPUT: NON-OPEC (OMI vs. DOE data)

Source: US Department of Energy and Oil Market Intelligence.

Yardeni Research, Inc.

Oil Demand: World

CRUDE OIL DEMAND

(million barrels per day, 12-month average)

CRUDE OIL DEMAND

(yearly percent change in 12-month average)

Yardeni Research, Inc.

Oil Demand: World, OECD, Non-OECD

CRUDE OIL DEMAND

(million barrels per day, 12-month average)

* Total excluding OECD-34

CRUDE OIL DEMAND

(yearly percent change in 12-month average)