Professional Documents
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CustomizedGeometricriskpremiumestimator
Whatisyourriskfreerate?
Enteryourstartingyear
LT
1928
Estimatesofriskpremiumsfrom19
areprovidedatthebottomofthista
Valueofstocksinstartingyear:
ValueofT.Billsinstartingyear:
ValueofT.bondsinstartingyear:
Estimateofriskpremiumbasedonyourinputs:
100
100
100
4.54%
AnnualReturnsonInvestmentsin
Year
1928
1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
CompoundedValueof$100
Stocks
$ 143.81
$ 131.88
$ 98.75
$ 55.46
$ 50.66
$ 75.99
$ 75.09
$ 110.18
$ 145.38
$ 94.00
$ 121.53
$ 120.20
$ 107.37
$ 93.66
$ 111.61
$ 139.59
$ 166.15
$ 225.67
$ 206.65
$ 217.39
$ 229.79
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
T.Bills
103.08
106.34
111.18
113.74
114.96
116.06
116.44
116.64
116.84
117.19
117.29
117.33
117.36
117.46
117.85
118.30
118.75
119.20
119.65
120.33
121.56
Returns by year
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
18.30%
30.81%
23.68%
18.15%
-1.21%
52.56%
32.60%
7.44%
-10.46%
43.72%
12.06%
0.34%
26.64%
-8.81%
22.61%
16.42%
12.40%
-9.97%
23.80%
10.81%
-8.24%
3.56%
14.22%
18.76%
-14.31%
-25.90%
37.00%
23.83%
-6.98%
6.51%
18.52%
31.74%
-4.70%
20.42%
22.34%
6.15%
31.24%
18.49%
5.81%
16.54%
1.10%
1.17%
1.48%
1.67%
1.89%
0.96%
1.66%
2.56%
3.23%
1.78%
3.26%
3.05%
2.27%
2.78%
3.11%
3.51%
3.90%
4.84%
4.33%
5.26%
6.56%
6.69%
4.54%
3.95%
6.73%
7.78%
5.99%
4.97%
5.13%
6.93%
9.94%
11.22%
14.30%
11.01%
8.45%
9.61%
7.49%
6.04%
5.72%
6.45%
4.66%
0.43%
-0.30%
2.27%
4.14%
3.29%
-1.34%
-2.26%
6.80%
-2.10%
-2.65%
11.64%
2.06%
5.69%
1.68%
3.73%
0.72%
2.91%
-1.58%
3.27%
-5.01%
16.75%
9.79%
2.82%
3.66%
1.99%
3.61%
15.98%
1.29%
-0.78%
0.67%
-2.99%
8.20%
32.81%
3.20%
13.73%
25.71%
24.28%
-4.96%
8.22%
Page 2
$
$
$
$
$
$
271.85
355.60
439.80
519.62
513.35
783.18
###
###
$ 999.05
###
###
###
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###
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###
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###
###
###
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
122.90
124.34
126.18
128.29
130.72
131.98
134.17
137.60
142.04
144.57
149.27
153.82
157.30
161.67
166.70
172.54
179.28
187.95
196.10
206.41
219.96
234.66
245.32
255.01
272.16
293.33
310.90
326.35
343.09
366.87
403.33
448.58
512.73
569.18
617.26
676.60
727.26
771.15
815.27
867.86
Returns by year
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
31.48%
-3.06%
30.23%
7.49%
9.97%
1.33%
37.20%
22.68%
33.10%
28.34%
20.89%
-9.03%
-11.85%
-21.97%
28.36%
10.74%
4.83%
15.61%
5.48%
-36.55%
25.94%
14.82%
2.10%
15.89%
32.15%
13.52%
1.36%
8.11%
7.55%
5.61%
3.41%
2.98%
3.99%
5.52%
5.02%
5.05%
4.73%
4.51%
5.76%
3.67%
1.66%
1.03%
1.23%
3.01%
4.68%
4.64%
1.59%
0.14%
0.13%
0.03%
0.05%
0.07%
0.05%
0.21%
17.69%
6.24%
15.00%
9.36%
14.21%
-8.04%
23.48%
1.43%
9.94%
14.92%
-8.25%
16.66%
5.57%
15.12%
0.38%
4.49%
2.87%
1.96%
10.21%
20.10%
-11.12%
8.46%
16.04%
2.97%
-9.10%
10.75%
1.28%
ArithmeticAverage
19282015
11.41%
19662015
11.01%
20062015
9.03%
3.49%
4.97%
1.16%
5.23%
7.12%
5.16%
GeometricAverage
19282015
9.50%
19662015
9.61%
20062015
7.25%
3.45%
4.92%
1.14%
4.96%
6.71%
4.71%
Page 3
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$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
938.24
1,009.08
1,065.69
1,101.98
1,134.84
1,180.07
1,245.15
1,307.68
1,373.76
1,438.70
1,503.58
1,590.23
1,648.63
1,675.96
1,693.22
1,714.00
1,765.59
1,848.18
1,933.98
1,964.64
1,967.29
1,969.84
1,970.44
1,971.42
1,972.72
1,973.77
1,977.91
RiskPremium
StocksT.Bills
7.92%
6.05%
7.87%
RiskPremium
StocksT.Bills
6.05%
4.69%
6.11%
Returns by year
companies
html
file/variable.htm
matesofriskpremiumsfrom1928,overthelast50yearsandoverthelast10years
providedatthebottomofthistable.
ndedValueof$100
T.Bonds Stocks - Bills
Stocks - Bonds
$
100.84
40.73%
42.98%
$
105.07 -11.46%
-12.50%
$
109.85 -29.67%
-29.66%
$
107.03 -46.15%
-41.28%
$
116.44
-9.71%
-17.43%
$
118.60
49.02%
48.13%
$
128.05
-1.51%
-9.15%
$
133.78
46.57%
42.27%
$
140.49
31.77%
26.93%
$
142.43 -35.64%
-36.72%
$
148.43
29.21%
25.07%
$
154.98
-1.14%
-5.51%
$
163.35 -10.70%
-16.08%
$
160.04 -12.85%
-10.75%
$
163.72
18.84%
16.88%
$
167.79
24.68%
22.57%
$
172.12
18.65%
16.45%
$
178.67
35.44%
32.02%
$
184.26
-8.81%
-11.56%
$
185.95
4.63%
4.28%
$
189.58
4.68%
3.75%
Historical risk
premium
Page 4
Returns by year
$
198.42
$
199.27
$
198.68
$
203.19
$
211.61
$
218.57
$
215.65
$
210.79
$
225.11
$
220.39
$
214.56
$
239.53
$
244.46
$
258.38
$
262.74
$
272.53
$
274.49
$
282.47
$
278.01
$
287.11
$
272.71
$
318.41
$
349.57
$
359.42
$
372.57
$
379.98
$
393.68
$
456.61
$
462.50
$
458.90
$
461.98
$
448.17
$
484.91
$
644.04
$
664.65
$
755.92
$
950.29
$ 1,181.06
$ 1,122.47
$ 1,214.78
17.20%
29.63%
22.20%
16.48%
-3.10%
51.60%
30.94%
4.88%
-13.69%
41.94%
8.80%
-2.71%
24.37%
-11.59%
19.50%
12.91%
8.50%
-14.81%
19.47%
5.55%
-14.80%
-3.12%
9.68%
14.80%
-21.03%
-33.68%
31.01%
18.86%
-12.11%
-0.42%
8.58%
20.52%
-19.00%
9.41%
13.89%
-3.47%
23.75%
12.46%
0.09%
10.09%
13.64%
30.38%
23.97%
15.88%
-5.35%
49.27%
33.93%
9.70%
-17.25%
45.82%
14.70%
-11.30%
24.58%
-14.51%
20.93%
12.69%
11.68%
-12.88%
25.38%
7.54%
-3.23%
-13.19%
4.43%
15.94%
-17.97%
-27.89%
33.39%
7.85%
-8.27%
7.29%
17.85%
34.72%
-12.90%
-12.40%
19.14%
-7.59%
5.52%
-5.79%
10.77%
8.31%
6.11%
6.62%
5.97%
6.36%
6.53%
6.66%
6.11%
6.57%
6.60%
6.33%
5.90%
5.87%
6.08%
5.50%
4.64%
5.17%
5.22%
4.93%
4.97%
5.21%
5.73%
5.37%
5.10%
5.34%
5.12%
5.13%
4.97%
5.07%
5.12%
Page 5
Returns by year
$ 1,429.72
23.37%
13.78%
$ 1,518.87 -10.61%
-9.30%
$ 1,746.77
24.62%
15.23%
$ 1,910.30
4.09%
-1.87%
$ 2,181.77
6.98%
-4.24%
$ 2,006.43
-2.66%
9.36%
$ 2,477.55
31.68%
13.71%
$ 2,512.94
17.66%
21.25%
$ 2,762.71
28.05%
23.16%
$ 3,174.95
23.61%
13.42%
$ 2,912.88
16.38%
29.14%
$ 3,398.03 -14.79%
-25.69%
$ 3,587.37 -15.52%
-17.42%
$ 4,129.65 -23.62%
-37.08%
$ 4,145.15
27.33%
27.98%
$ 4,331.30
9.52%
6.25%
$ 4,455.50
1.82%
1.97%
$ 4,542.87
10.94%
13.65%
$ 5,006.69
0.84%
-4.73%
$ 6,013.10 -38.14%
-56.65%
$ 5,344.65
25.80%
37.05%
$ 5,796.96
14.69%
6.36%
$ 6,726.52
2.07%
-13.94%
$ 6,926.40
15.84%
12.92%
$ 6,295.79
32.08%
41.25%
$ 6,972.34
13.47%
2.78%
$ 7,061.89
1.15%
0.08%
RiskPremium
StandardError
StocksT.Bond StocksT.BillStocksT.Bonds
6.18%
2.15%
2.29%
3.89%
2.42%
2.74%
3.88%
6.06%
8.66%
StocksT.Bonds
4.54%
2.90%
2.53%
Page 6
5.24%
5.00%
5.14%
5.03%
4.90%
4.97%
5.08%
5.30%
5.53%
5.63%
5.96%
5.51%
5.17%
4.53%
4.82%
4.84%
4.80%
4.91%
4.79%
3.88%
4.29%
4.31%
4.10%
4.20%
4.62%
4.60%
4.54%
Year
1927
1928
1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
S&P500
17.66
24.35
21.45
15.34
8.12
6.92
9.97
9.5
13.43
17.18
10.55
13.14
12.46
10.58
8.69
9.77
11.67
13.28
17.36
15.3
15.3
15.2
16.79
20.43
23.77
26.57
24.81
35.98
45.48
46.67
39.99
55.21
59.89
58.11
71.55
63.1
75.02
84.75
Page 7
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
92.43
80.33
96.47
103.86
92.06
92.15
102.09
118.05
97.55
68.56
90.19
107.46
95.1
96.11
107.94
135.76
122.55
140.64
164.93
167.24
211.28
242.17
247.08
277.72
353.4
330.22
417.09
435.71
466.45
459.27
615.93
740.74
970.43
1229.23
1469.25
1320.28
1148.09
879.82
1111.91
1211.92
2.83
2.88
2.98
3.04
3.24
3.19
3.16
3.19
3.61
3.72
3.73
4.22
4.86
5.18
5.97
6.44
6.83
6.93
7.12
7.83
8.20
8.19
9.17
10.22
11.73
12.35
12.97
12.64
12.69
13.36
14.17
14.89
15.52
16.20
16.71
16.27
15.74
16.08
17.39
19.44
3.06%
3.59%
3.09%
2.93%
3.52%
3.46%
3.10%
2.70%
3.70%
5.43%
4.14%
3.93%
5.11%
5.39%
5.53%
4.74%
5.57%
4.93%
4.32%
4.68%
3.88%
3.38%
3.71%
3.68%
3.32%
3.74%
3.11%
2.90%
2.72%
2.91%
2.30%
2.01%
1.60%
1.32%
1.14%
1.23%
1.37%
1.83%
1.56%
1.60%
Page 8
4.62%
4.84%
5.70%
6.03%
7.65%
6.39%
5.93%
6.36%
6.74%
7.43%
8.00%
6.87%
7.69%
9.01%
10.39%
12.84%
13.72%
10.54%
11.83%
11.50%
9.26%
7.11%
8.99%
9.11%
7.84%
8.08%
7.09%
6.77%
5.77%
7.81%
5.71%
6.30%
5.81%
4.65%
6.44%
5.11%
5.05%
3.82%
4.25%
4.22%
0.72%
2.91%
1.58%
3.27%
5.01%
16.75%
9.79%
2.82%
3.66%
1.99%
3.61%
15.98%
1.29%
0.78%
0.67%
2.99%
8.20%
32.81%
3.20%
13.73%
25.71%
24.28%
4.96%
8.22%
17.69%
6.24%
15.00%
9.36%
14.21%
8.04%
23.48%
1.43%
9.94%
14.92%
8.25%
16.66%
5.57%
15.12%
0.38%
4.49%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
1248.29
1418.3
1468.36
903.25
1115.1
1257.64
1257.6
1426.19
1848.36
2058.9
2043.9
22.22
24.88
27.73
28.39
22.41
22.73
26.43
31.25
36.28
39.44
43.00
1.78%
1.75%
4.39%
4.70%
1.89%
4.02%
3.14%
2.01%
1.81%
2.10%
2.19%
1.96%
1.92%
2.10%
2.21%
Page 9
3.84%
3.29%
1.88%
1.76%
3.04%
2.17%
2.27%
2.87%
1.96%
10.21%
20.10%
11.12%
8.46%
16.04%
2.97%
9.10%
10.75%
1.28%
Page 10
Page 11
Used estimated dividend for 2014, based upon Dec 2014 estimated dividend yield for S&P 500
Page 12
T. Bill rates
Title:
3-Month Treasury Bill: Secondary Market Rate
Series ID:
TB3MS
Source:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Release:
H.15 Selected Interest Rates
Seasonal AdjuNot Applicable
Frequency:
Monthly
Units:
Percent
Date Range: 1934-01-01 to 2008-11-01
Last Updated:2008-12-02 10:34 AM CST
Notes:
Averages of Business Days, Discount Basis
DATE
VALUE
Jan-34
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
july
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-35
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
july
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-36
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
july
Aug
Sept
Oct
Year
0.72
0.62
0.24
0.15
0.16
0.15
0.15
0.19
0.21
0.27
0.25
0.23
0.20
0.19
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.16
0.20
0.20
0.16
0.15
0.20
0.20
0.20
0.20
0.20
0.20
0.15
0.20
0.16
0.13
Sum
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
Page 13
1.29
0.7
0.7
1.21
0.31
0.15
0.10
0.33
1.35
1.52
1.52
1.52
1.52
2.27
4.09
4.41
4.69
5.91
6.69
7.57
3.85
6.64
10.22
12.92
7.11
13.02
12.18
9.07
11.11
12.44
14.02
15.61
19.36
17.33
Average
0.32%
0.18%
0.17%
0.30%
0.08%
0.04%
0.03%
0.08%
0.34%
0.38%
0.38%
0.38%
0.38%
0.57%
1.02%
1.10%
1.17%
1.48%
1.67%
1.89%
0.96%
1.66%
2.56%
3.23%
1.78%
3.26%
3.05%
2.27%
2.78%
3.11%
3.51%
3.90%
4.84%
4.33%
T. Bill rates
Nov
Dec
Jan-37
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
july
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-38
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
july
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-39
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
july
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-40
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
july
Aug
0.11
0.12
0.17
0.15
0.38
0.56
0.41
0.36
0.28
0.29
0.31
0.20
0.09
0.11
0.10
0.08
0.08
0.09
0.05
0.05
0.07
0.06
0.08
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.14
0.05
0.05
0.04
0.01
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.06
0.10
0.05
0.04
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Page 14
21.04
26.25
26.74
18.16
15.81
26.90
31.11
23.96
19.88
20.51
27.73
39.75
44.88
57.20
44.04
33.79
38.45
29.95
24.14
22.89
25.80
32.44
30.20
22.44
13.62
11.93
15.94
22.06
20.09
20.21
18.91
18.04
23.05
14.69
6.63
4.12
4.91
12.04
18.71
18.57
6.34
0.54
5.26%
6.56%
6.69%
4.54%
3.95%
6.73%
7.78%
5.99%
4.97%
5.13%
6.93%
9.94%
11.22%
14.30%
11.01%
8.45%
9.61%
7.49%
6.04%
5.72%
6.45%
8.11%
7.55%
5.61%
3.41%
2.98%
3.99%
5.52%
5.02%
5.05%
4.73%
4.51%
5.76%
3.67%
1.66%
1.03%
1.23%
3.01%
4.68%
4.64%
1.59%
0.14%
T. Bill rates
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-41
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
july
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-42
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
july
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-43
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
july
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-44
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
0.05
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.04
0.11
0.10
0.11
0.12
0.12
0.13
0.10
0.09
0.28
0.33
0.27
0.25
0.25
0.32
0.37
0.37
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
Page 15
T. Bill rates
july
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-45
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
july
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-46
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
july
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-47
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
july
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-48
Feb
Mar
Apr
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.66
0.75
0.80
0.85
0.92
0.95
0.97
1.00
1.00
1.00
Page 16
T. Bill rates
May
June
july
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-49
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
july
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-50
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
july
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-51
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
july
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-52
Feb
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.06
1.09
1.12
1.14
1.16
1.17
1.17
1.17
1.17
1.17
1.17
1.02
1.04
1.07
1.05
1.08
1.10
1.07
1.12
1.12
1.15
1.16
1.15
1.16
1.20
1.30
1.31
1.36
1.34
1.34
1.36
1.40
1.47
1.55
1.45
1.56
1.62
1.63
1.54
1.56
1.73
1.57
1.54
Page 17
T. Bill rates
Mar
Apr
May
June
july
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-53
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
july
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-54
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
july
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-55
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
july
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1.59
1.57
1.67
1.70
1.81
1.83
1.71
1.74
1.85
2.09
1.96
1.97
2.01
2.19
2.16
2.11
2.04
2.04
1.79
1.38
1.44
1.60
1.18
0.97
1.03
0.97
0.76
0.64
0.72
0.92
1.01
0.98
0.93
1.15
1.22
1.17
1.28
1.59
1.45
1.41
1.60
1.90
2.07
2.23
2.24
2.54
Page 18
T. Bill rates
Jan-56
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
july
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-57
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
july
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-58
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
july
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-59
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
july
Aug
Sept
Oct
2.41
2.32
2.25
2.60
2.61
2.49
2.31
2.60
2.84
2.90
2.99
3.21
3.11
3.10
3.08
3.07
3.06
3.29
3.16
3.37
3.53
3.58
3.31
3.04
2.44
1.53
1.30
1.13
0.91
0.83
0.91
1.69
2.44
2.63
2.67
2.77
2.82
2.70
2.80
2.95
2.84
3.21
3.20
3.38
4.04
4.05
Page 19
T. Bill rates
Nov
Dec
Jan-60
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
july
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-61
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
july
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-62
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
july
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-63
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
july
Aug
4.15
4.49
4.35
3.96
3.31
3.23
3.29
2.46
2.30
2.30
2.48
2.30
2.37
2.25
2.24
2.42
2.39
2.29
2.29
2.33
2.24
2.39
2.28
2.30
2.48
2.60
2.72
2.73
2.72
2.73
2.69
2.73
2.92
2.82
2.78
2.74
2.83
2.87
2.91
2.92
2.89
2.90
2.93
2.99
3.18
3.32
Page 20
T. Bill rates
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-64
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
july
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-65
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
july
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-66
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
july
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-67
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
3.38
3.45
3.52
3.52
3.52
3.53
3.54
3.47
3.48
3.48
3.46
3.50
3.53
3.57
3.64
3.84
3.81
3.93
3.93
3.93
3.89
3.80
3.84
3.84
3.92
4.03
4.09
4.38
4.59
4.65
4.59
4.62
4.64
4.50
4.80
4.96
5.37
5.35
5.32
4.96
4.72
4.56
4.26
3.84
3.60
3.54
Page 21
T. Bill rates
july
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-68
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
july
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-69
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
july
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-70
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
july
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-71
Feb
Mar
Apr
4.21
4.27
4.42
4.56
4.73
4.97
5.00
4.98
5.17
5.38
5.66
5.52
5.31
5.09
5.19
5.35
5.45
5.96
6.14
6.12
6.02
6.11
6.04
6.44
7.00
6.98
7.09
7.00
7.24
7.82
7.87
7.13
6.63
6.51
6.84
6.68
6.45
6.41
6.12
5.91
5.28
4.87
4.44
3.70
3.38
3.86
Page 22
T. Bill rates
May
June
july
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-72
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
july
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-73
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
july
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-74
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
july
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-75
Feb
4.14
4.75
5.40
4.94
4.69
4.46
4.22
4.01
3.38
3.20
3.73
3.71
3.69
3.91
3.98
4.02
4.66
4.74
4.78
5.07
5.41
5.60
6.09
6.26
6.36
7.19
8.01
8.67
8.29
7.22
7.83
7.45
7.77
7.12
7.96
8.33
8.23
7.90
7.55
8.96
8.06
7.46
7.47
7.15
6.26
5.50
Page 23
T. Bill rates
Mar
Apr
May
June
july
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-76
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
july
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-77
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
july
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-78
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
july
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
5.49
5.61
5.23
5.34
6.13
6.44
6.42
5.96
5.48
5.44
4.87
4.88
5.00
4.86
5.20
5.41
5.23
5.14
5.08
4.92
4.75
4.35
4.62
4.67
4.60
4.54
4.96
5.02
5.19
5.49
5.81
6.16
6.10
6.07
6.44
6.45
6.29
6.29
6.41
6.73
7.01
7.08
7.85
7.99
8.64
9.08
Page 24
T. Bill rates
Jan-79
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
july
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-80
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
july
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-81
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
july
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-82
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
july
Aug
Sept
Oct
9.35
9.32
9.48
9.46
9.61
9.06
9.24
9.52
10.26
11.70
11.79
12.04
12.00
12.86
15.20
13.20
8.58
7.07
8.06
9.13
10.27
11.62
13.73
15.49
15.02
14.79
13.36
13.69
16.30
14.73
14.95
15.51
14.70
13.54
10.86
10.85
12.28
13.48
12.68
12.70
12.09
12.47
11.35
8.68
7.92
7.71
Page 25
T. Bill rates
Nov
Dec
Jan-83
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
july
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-84
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
july
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-85
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
july
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-86
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
july
Aug
8.07
7.94
7.86
8.11
8.35
8.21
8.19
8.79
9.08
9.34
9.00
8.64
8.76
9.00
8.90
9.09
9.52
9.69
9.83
9.87
10.12
10.47
10.37
9.74
8.61
8.06
7.76
8.27
8.52
7.95
7.48
6.95
7.08
7.14
7.10
7.16
7.24
7.10
7.07
7.06
6.56
6.06
6.15
6.21
5.83
5.53
Page 26
T. Bill rates
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-87
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
july
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-88
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
july
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-89
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
july
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-90
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
5.21
5.18
5.35
5.53
5.43
5.59
5.59
5.64
5.66
5.67
5.69
6.04
6.40
6.13
5.69
5.77
5.81
5.66
5.70
5.91
6.26
6.46
6.73
7.06
7.24
7.35
7.76
8.07
8.27
8.53
8.82
8.65
8.43
8.15
7.88
7.90
7.75
7.64
7.69
7.63
7.64
7.74
7.90
7.77
7.74
7.73
Page 27
T. Bill rates
july
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-91
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
july
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-92
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
july
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-93
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
july
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-94
Feb
Mar
Apr
7.62
7.45
7.36
7.17
7.06
6.74
6.22
5.94
5.91
5.65
5.46
5.57
5.58
5.33
5.22
4.99
4.56
4.07
3.80
3.84
4.04
3.75
3.63
3.66
3.21
3.13
2.91
2.86
3.13
3.22
3.00
2.93
2.95
2.87
2.96
3.07
3.04
3.02
2.95
3.02
3.10
3.06
2.98
3.25
3.50
3.68
Page 28
T. Bill rates
May
June
july
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-95
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
july
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-96
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
july
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-97
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
july
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-98
Feb
4.14
4.14
4.33
4.48
4.62
4.95
5.29
5.60
5.71
5.77
5.73
5.65
5.67
5.47
5.42
5.40
5.28
5.28
5.36
5.14
5.00
4.83
4.96
4.95
5.02
5.09
5.15
5.05
5.09
4.99
5.03
4.91
5.03
5.01
5.14
5.16
5.05
4.93
5.05
5.14
4.95
4.97
5.14
5.16
5.04
5.09
5.49
5.01
5.06
Page 29
T. Bill rates
Mar
Apr
May
June
july
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-99
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
july
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-00
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
july
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-01
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
july
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
5.03
4.95
5.00
4.98
4.96
4.90
4.61
3.96
4.41
4.39
4.34
4.44
4.44
4.29
4.50
4.57
4.55
4.72
4.68
4.86
5.07
5.20
5.32
5.55
5.69
5.66
5.79
5.69
5.96
6.09
6.00
6.11
6.17
5.77
5.15
4.88
4.42
3.87
3.62
3.49
3.51
3.36
2.64
2.16
1.87
1.69
4.78
4.64
5.82
3.39
Page 30
T. Bill rates
Jan-02
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
july
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-03
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
july
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-04
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
july
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-05
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
july
Aug
Sept
Oct
1.65
1.73
1.79
1.72
1.73
1.70
1.68
1.62
1.63
1.58
1.23
1.19
1.17
1.17
1.13
1.13
1.07
0.92
0.90
0.95
0.94
0.92
0.93
0.90
0.88
0.93
0.94
0.94
1.02
1.27
1.33
1.48
1.65
1.76
2.07
2.19
2.33
2.54
2.74
2.78
2.84
2.97
3.22
3.44
3.42
3.71
1.60
1.01
1.37
Page 31
T. Bill rates
Nov
Dec
Jan-06
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
july
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-07
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
july
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-08
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
july
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
January 09
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
3.88
3.89
4.24
4.43
4.51
4.60
4.72
4.79
4.95
4.96
4.81
4.92
4.94
4.85
4.98
5.03
4.94
4.87
4.73
4.61
4.82
4.20
3.89
3.90
3.27
3.00
2.75
2.12
1.26
1.29
1.73
1.86
1.63
1.72
1.13
0.67
0.19
0.03
0.13
0.30
0.21
0.16
0.18
0.18
0.18
0.17
3.15
4.73
4.35
1.37
Page 32
T. Bill rates
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
0.12
0.07
0.05
0.14
0.16
Page 33
T. Bond return
UStreasury10yearbondatendofeachyear
FederalReserveofSt.Louis(FRED)
Source:
Computation Tocomputethereturnonaconstantmaturitybond,Iaddtwocomponentsthepromisedcouponatth
Thereturnonthe10yearbondfor1928=3.17%(Couponratepromisedattheendof1927)Pricec
Bond used:
Year
1927
1928
1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
T.Bondrate Returnonbond
3.17%
3.45%
0.84%
3.36%
4.20%
3.22%
4.54%
3.93%
2.56%
3.35%
8.79%
3.53%
1.86%
3.01%
7.96%
2.84%
4.47%
2.59%
5.02%
2.73%
1.38%
2.56%
4.21%
2.35%
4.41%
2.01%
5.40%
2.47%
2.02%
2.49%
2.29%
2.49%
2.49%
2.48%
2.58%
2.33%
3.80%
2.24%
3.13%
2.39%
0.92%
2.44%
1.95%
2.19%
4.66%
2.39%
0.43%
2.70%
0.30%
2.75%
2.27%
2.59%
4.14%
2.51%
3.29%
2.96%
1.34%
3.59%
2.26%
3.21%
6.80%
3.86%
2.10%
4.69%
2.65%
Page 34
T. Bond return
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
3.84%
4.06%
3.86%
4.13%
4.18%
4.62%
4.84%
5.70%
6.03%
7.65%
6.39%
5.93%
6.36%
6.74%
7.43%
8.00%
6.87%
7.69%
9.01%
10.39%
12.84%
13.72%
10.54%
11.83%
11.50%
9.26%
7.11%
8.99%
9.11%
7.84%
8.08%
7.09%
6.77%
5.77%
7.81%
5.71%
6.30%
5.81%
4.65%
6.44%
11.64%
2.06%
5.69%
1.68%
3.73%
0.72%
2.91%
1.58%
3.27%
5.01%
16.75%
9.79%
2.82%
3.66%
1.99%
3.61%
15.98%
1.29%
0.78%
0.67%
2.99%
8.20%
32.81%
3.20%
13.73%
25.71%
24.28%
4.96%
8.22%
17.69%
6.24%
15.00%
9.36%
14.21%
8.04%
23.48%
1.43%
9.94%
14.92%
8.25%
Page 35
T. Bond return
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
5.11%
5.05%
3.82%
4.25%
4.22%
4.39%
4.70%
4.02%
2.21%
3.84%
3.29%
1.88%
1.76%
16.66%
5.57%
15.12%
0.38%
4.49%
2.87%
1.96%
10.21%
20.10%
11.12%
8.46%
16.04%
2.97%
Page 36
T. Bond return
thepromisedcouponatthestartoftheyearandthepricechangeduetointerestratechanges.
theendof1927)Pricechangeonabondwithacouponrateof3.17%,whentheinterestrategoesto3.45%.
Page 37
T. Bond return
Page 38
T. Bond return
Page 39
Arithmetic Average
Geometric Average
Stocks - T. BillsStocks - T. BondsStocks - T. BillsStocks - T. Bonds
1928-2015
7.92%
6.18%
6.05%
4.54%
Std Error
2.15%
2.29%
1966-2015
6.05%
3.89%
4.69%
2.90%
Std Error
2.42%
2.74%
2006-2015
7.87%
3.88%
6.11%
2.53%
Std Error
6.06%
8.66%
Page 40
- T. Bonds
Page 41