CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Pennsylvania
Sample
Conducted
Margin of Error

837 Republican Likely Voters

April 13-15, 2016

4.8%

1. How would you rate the condition of the economy in Pennsylvania today?
Very good . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%
Fairly good . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28%
Fairly bad . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48%
Very bad . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16%
Not sure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7%

2. How likely is it that you will vote in the 2016 Presidential primary in Pennsylvania?
Definitely will vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .89%
Probably will vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6%
Maybe will vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2%
Probably will not vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%
Definitely will not vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0%
I already voted early in-person or by mail (absentee) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%
Dont know . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%

3. Which candidate are you most likely to vote for in the Pennsylvania Republican Presidential
primary in 2016?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Ted Cruz . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26%

John Kasich . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23%
Donald Trump . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46%
No preference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4%

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Pennsylvania
4. Which best describes your support for [First Choice Candidate Name] right now?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Very strong Ive decided . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52%

Strong I probably wont change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32%
Somewhat strong I might still change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13%
Not too strong Ill probably keep looking . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3%

5. Overall, do you feel the Republicans process for selecting a nominee in 2016 has generally
been fair or not fair so far?
Asked of Republican primary voters

It has been fair . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52%

It has NOT been fair . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48%

6. As you may know, the Republican party requires a nominee to get 1,237 delegates in
the primaries for the nomination. If Donald Trump does not get 1,237 but Trump still has more
delegates than Ted Cruz, and more delegates than John Kasich, what do you feel Republicans
should do at the convention this summer?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Select Trump, because hell still have more delegates than any other candidate
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47%
Let Trump, Cruz and Kasich fight for delegate support at the convention to
decide the winner . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45%
Turn to someone new who isnt running right now . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8%

7. Which of the candidates do you feel is the most...

Asked of Republican primary voters

Electable in
november
Understanding of
people like you
Effective at getting
things done
Authentic
Conservative
Optimistic

Donald Trump

Ted Cruz

John Kasich

47%

24%

29%

45%

28%

27%

57%
45%
20%
48%

18%
24%
64%
24%

25%
31%
16%
28%

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Pennsylvania
8. If you had to pick one, which of these is most important in your vote right now:
Asked of Republican primary voters

Terrorism . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19%
Jobs and the economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50%
Immigration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15%
Faith and values . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16%

9. Do you agree or disagree with the following: We need a President who will do whatever it
takes to stop terrorism, including things that might restrict some peoples civil liberties
Asked of Republican primary voters

Agree . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .68%
Disagree . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .32%

10. Do you think the Republican partys platform on same-sex marriage should:
Asked of Republican primary voters

Oppose same-sex marriages . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32%

Accept same-sex marriages . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26%
Not comment on same-sex marriage either way . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42%

11. The next Republican President needs to:

Asked of Republican primary voters

Stand up to Democrats more effectively . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53%

Negotiate with Democrats more effectively . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47%

12. If Donald Trump becomes the Republican nominee, how do you think he will approach the
General election campaign this fall?
Asked of Republican primary voters

He will continue to be as outspoken as he is now . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66%

He will be less outspoken than he is now . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18%
He will become more outspoken than he is now . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16%

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Pennsylvania
13. For you personally, do you feel each of these things is becoming...
Asked of Republican primary voters

Your own financial

outlook
Your ability to
practice your faith as
you wish
Your freedom to say
and do what you
want
Your feeling of safety
from terrorism

More secure

Staying the
same

Less secure

7%

43%

50%

5%

51%

44%

4%

34%

62%

4%

33%

63%

14. How do you feel about the Tea Party movement?

Support . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .38%
Oppose . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16%
Neutral . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46%

15. Would you describe yourself as a born-again or evangelical Christian?

Yes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35%
No . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59%
Not sure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6%

16. In general, how would you describe your own political viewpoint?
Very liberal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2%
Somewhat liberal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2%
Moderate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31%
Somewhat conservative . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .37%
Very conservative . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25%
Not sure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3%

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Pennsylvania
17. Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a ...?
Strong Democrat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%
Not very strong Democrat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%
Lean Democrat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2%
Independent . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7%
Lean Republican . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11%
Not very strong Republican . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31%
Strong Republican . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47%
Not sure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0%

18. Are you registered as a ...

Democrat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0%
Republican . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99%
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0%
Not affiliated with any party . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0%
Not sure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0%

19. Are you male or female?

Male . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50%
Female . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50%

20. In what year were you born? [Age recoded from birth year]
18-29 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11%
30-44 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22%
45-64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44%
65+ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22%

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Pennsylvania
21. What racial or ethnic group best describes you?
White . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94%
Black . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%
Hispanic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4%

22. What is the highest level of education you have completed?

HS or less . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21%
Some college . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26%
College grad . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33%
Post grad . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20%

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Pennsylvania Likely Republican Voters
1. Economy in State
How would you rate the condition of the economy in Pennsylvania today?
Gender
Very good
Fairly good
Fairly bad
Very bad
Not sure
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

1%
28%
48%
16%
7%

2%
28%
56%
11%
3%

1%
27%
40%
21%
12%

0%
30%
37%
12%
21%

1%
28%
42%
21%
7%

2%
25%
54%
15%
4%

0%
32%
47%
14%
6%

1%
28%
48%
16%
8%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(837)

(421)

(416)

(95)

(184)

(371)

(187)

(787)

(8)

(8)

(34)

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Pennsylvania Likely Republican Voters

2. Likelihood of Voting
How likely is it that you will vote in the 2016 Presidential primary in Pennsylvania?
Gender
Definitely will vote
Probably will vote
Maybe will vote
Probably will not vote
Definitely will not vote
Already voted early or absentee
Dont know
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

89%
6%
2%
1%
0%
1%
1%

91%
3%
3%
1%
0%
1%
1%

88%
8%
2%
0%
1%
0%
1%

80%
13%
5%
2%
0%
0%
0%

84%
7%
4%
1%
1%
2%
1%

92%
4%
1%
1%
0%
1%
2%

94%
5%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%

89%
6%
2%
1%
0%
1%
1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(837)

(421)

(416)

(95)

(184)

(371)

(187)

(787)

(8)

(8)

(34)

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Pennsylvania Likely Republican Voters

3. First Choice Republican Candidate

Which candidate are you most likely to vote for in the Pennsylvania Republican Presidential primary in 2016?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Gender

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

Ted Cruz
John Kasich
Donald Trump
No preference

26%
23%
46%
4%

28%
24%
46%
2%

24%
23%
47%
6%

20%
52%
19%
9%

30%
24%
40%
6%

29%
14%
55%
2%

20%
26%
50%
3%

25%
24%
47%
4%

Totals
(Weighted N)

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(833)

(421)

(412)

(95)

(184)

(366)

(187)

(783)

(8)

(8)

(34)

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Pennsylvania Likely Republican Voters

4. Republican Candidate Support

Which best describes your support for [First Choice Candidate Name] right now?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Gender
Very strong
Strong
Somewhat strong
Not too strong
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

52%
32%
13%
3%

55%
31%
11%
4%

49%
32%
15%
4%

38%
40%
16%
6%

52%
30%
14%
5%

58%
30%
9%
2%

47%
32%
16%
4%

53%
30%
13%
4%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(793)

(406)

(387)

(87)

(169)

(356)

(181)

(744)

(8)

(8)

(33)

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Pennsylvania Likely Republican Voters

5. Republican Selection of Nominees

Overall, do you feel the Republicans process for selecting a nominee in 2016 has generally been fair or not fair so far?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Gender
It has been fair
It has NOT been fair
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

52%
48%

52%
48%

52%
48%

73%
27%

53%
47%

49%
51%

45%
55%

52%
48%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(836)

(421)

(415)

(95)

(184)

(370)

(186)

(787)

(8)

(8)

(34)

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Pennsylvania Likely Republican Voters

6. Republican Convention
As you may know, the Republican party requires a nominee to get 1,237 delegates in the primaries for the nomination. If Donald Trump does not get 1,237 but
Trump still has more delegates than Ted Cruz, and more delegates than John Kasich, what do you feel Republicans should do at the convention this summer?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Gender
Select Trump, because hell still have
more delegates than any other
candidate
Let Trump, Cruz and Kasich fight for
delegate support at the convention to
decide the winner
Turn to someone new who isnt
running right now
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

47%

45%

49%

21%

41%

55%

50%

48%

45%

49%

42%

69%

47%

40%

42%

44%

8%

6%

10%

10%

12%

5%

9%

8%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(835)

(421)

(413)

(95)

(184)

(368)

(187)

(785)

(8)

(8)

(34)

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Pennsylvania Likely Republican Voters

7. Republican Candidate Traits Electable in november

Which of the candidates do you feel is the most...
Asked of Republican primary voters

Gender

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
John Kasich

47%
24%
29%

45%
23%
32%

49%
25%
26%

27%
15%
58%

37%
32%
31%

55%
24%
21%

52%
20%
28%

48%
23%
29%

Totals
(Weighted N)

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(801)

(406)

(394)

(93)

(173)

(351)

(183)

(755)

(8)

(8)

(30)

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Pennsylvania Likely Republican Voters

8. Republican Candidate Traits Understanding of people like you

Which of the candidates do you feel is the most...
Asked of Republican primary voters

Gender

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
John Kasich

45%
28%
27%

47%
26%
28%

44%
30%
27%

22%
37%
42%

44%
27%
28%

52%
28%
20%

46%
22%
32%

46%
26%
28%

Totals
(Weighted N)

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(801)

(410)

(391)

(95)

(174)

(353)

(178)

(751)

(8)

(8)

(33)

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Pennsylvania Likely Republican Voters

9. Republican Candidate Traits Effective at getting things done

Which of the candidates do you feel is the most...
Asked of Republican primary voters

Gender

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
John Kasich

57%
18%
25%

54%
19%
27%

61%
17%
22%

29%
17%
54%

62%
17%
21%

64%
20%
16%

55%
16%
30%

58%
17%
24%

Totals
(Weighted N)

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(809)

(406)

(403)

(95)

(179)

(355)

(179)

(760)

(8)

(8)

(33)

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Pennsylvania Likely Republican Voters

10. Republican Candidate Traits Authentic

Which of the candidates do you feel is the most...
Asked of Republican primary voters

Gender

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
John Kasich

45%
24%
31%

45%
26%
29%

45%
21%
34%

35%
18%
47%

43%
25%
32%

50%
27%
23%

41%
19%
40%

46%
23%
31%

Totals
(Weighted N)

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(803)

(410)

(393)

(95)

(168)

(358)

(182)

(754)

(8)

(8)

(33)

10

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Pennsylvania Likely Republican Voters

11. Republican Candidate Traits Conservative

Which of the candidates do you feel is the most...
Asked of Republican primary voters

Gender

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
John Kasich

20%
64%
16%

21%
69%
10%

20%
58%
22%

10%
68%
22%

17%
59%
24%

24%
66%
10%

21%
63%
16%

21%
63%
16%

Totals
(Weighted N)

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(800)

(409)

(391)

(95)

(174)

(354)

(176)

(753)

(8)

(8)

(31)

11

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Pennsylvania Likely Republican Voters

12. Republican Candidate Traits Optimistic

Which of the candidates do you feel is the most...
Asked of Republican primary voters

Gender

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
John Kasich

48%
24%
28%

45%
24%
32%

52%
24%
25%

40%
17%
44%

39%
29%
32%

53%
24%
23%

52%
21%
27%

49%
23%
28%

Totals
(Weighted N)

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(803)

(408)

(395)

(95)

(170)

(357)

(181)

(754)

(8)

(8)

(33)

12

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Pennsylvania Likely Republican Voters

13. Republican Vote Reasons

If you had to pick one, which of these is most important in your vote right now:
Asked of Republican primary voters

Gender
Terrorism
Jobs and the economy
Immigration
Faith and values
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

19%
50%
15%
16%

14%
52%
16%
17%

24%
47%
14%
14%

16%
48%
15%
20%

21%
51%
8%
20%

16%
53%
17%
14%

27%
44%
18%
11%

20%
50%
15%
15%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(837)

(421)

(415)

(95)

(184)

(371)

(187)

(787)

(8)

(8)

(34)

13

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Pennsylvania Likely Republican Voters

14. Republican Stop Terrorism

Do you agree or disagree with the following: We need a President who will do whatever it takes to stop terrorism, including things that might restrict some peoples
civil liberties
Asked of Republican primary voters

Gender
Agree
Disagree
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

68%
32%

64%
36%

73%
27%

33%
67%

66%
34%

73%
27%

79%
21%

69%
31%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(833)

(419)

(413)

(95)

(184)

(369)

(184)

(784)

(8)

(8)

(33)

14

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Pennsylvania Likely Republican Voters

15. Republican Same-sex Marriage

Do you think the Republican partys platform on same-sex marriage should:
Asked of Republican primary voters

Gender
Oppose same-sex marriages
Accept same-sex marriages
Not comment on same-sex marriage
either way
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

32%
26%

32%
27%

32%
26%

18%
50%

34%
25%

35%
24%

31%
21%

31%
26%

42%

41%

42%

32%

41%

41%

48%

43%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(836)

(421)

(414)

(95)

(183)

(370)

(187)

(786)

(8)

(8)

(34)

15

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Pennsylvania Likely Republican Voters

16. Republican Candidate Actions

The next Republican President needs to:
Asked of Republican primary voters

Gender
Stand up to Democrats more
effectively
Negotiate with Democrats more
effectively
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

53%

57%

48%

44%

49%

60%

46%

53%

47%

43%

52%

56%

51%

40%

54%

47%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(835)

(420)

(415)

(95)

(184)

(369)

(187)

(785)

(8)

(8)

(34)

16

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Pennsylvania Likely Republican Voters

17. Trump General Election

If Donald Trump becomes the Republican nominee, how do you think he will approach the General election campaign this fall?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Gender
He will continue to be as outspoken
as he is now
He will be less outspoken than he is
now
He will become more outspoken than
he is now
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

66%

64%

68%

59%

69%

71%

59%

66%

18%

21%

14%

26%

8%

16%

27%

19%

16%

14%

17%

15%

24%

13%

14%

15%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(830)

(417)

(413)

(95)

(184)

(366)

(184)

(782)

(8)

(8)

(31)

17

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Pennsylvania Likely Republican Voters

18. Republican Personal Changes Your own financial outlook

For you personally, do you feel each of these things is becoming...
Asked of Republican primary voters

Gender
More secure
Staying the same
Less secure
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

7%
43%
50%

11%
37%
52%

4%
50%
47%

21%
44%
34%

7%
47%
45%

5%
40%
55%

3%
45%
51%

8%
44%
49%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(829)

(414)

(415)

(93)

(184)

(367)

(185)

(780)

(8)

(8)

(34)

18

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Pennsylvania Likely Republican Voters

19. Republican Personal Changes Your ability to practice your faith as you wish
For you personally, do you feel each of these things is becoming...
Asked of Republican primary voters

Gender
More secure
Staying the same
Less secure
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

5%
51%
44%

7%
43%
49%

2%
58%
40%

4%
64%
32%

3%
56%
41%

6%
43%
51%

5%
54%
41%

5%
52%
43%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(830)

(415)

(415)

(93)

(184)

(367)

(186)

(780)

(8)

(8)

(34)

19

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Pennsylvania Likely Republican Voters

20. Republican Personal Changes Your freedom to say and do what you want
For you personally, do you feel each of these things is becoming...
Asked of Republican primary voters

Gender
More secure
Staying the same
Less secure
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

4%
34%
62%

5%
29%
66%

4%
39%
57%

6%
51%
43%

4%
32%
65%

5%
28%
67%

3%
40%
57%

5%
34%
61%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(824)

(410)

(415)

(93)

(181)

(364)

(186)

(776)

(8)

(8)

(33)

20

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Pennsylvania Likely Republican Voters

21. Republican Personal Changes Your feeling of safety from terrorism

For you personally, do you feel each of these things is becoming...
Asked of Republican primary voters

Gender
More secure
Staying the same
Less secure
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

4%
33%
63%

5%
34%
61%

4%
31%
65%

12%
41%
46%

1%
41%
58%

4%
28%
67%

3%
29%
68%

4%
33%
63%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(827)

(411)

(415)

(93)

(184)

(363)

(186)

(777)

(8)

(8)

(34)

21

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Pennsylvania Likely Republican Voters
Sample
Conducted
Margin of Error

837 Likely Republican Primary Voters

April 13-15, 2016

4.8%

1. Economy in State
How would you rate the condition of the economy in Pennsylvania today?
Ideology
Very good
Fairly good
Fairly bad
Very bad
Not sure
Totals
(Weighted N)

Totals
(Weighted N)

Evangelical

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

1%
28%
48%
16%
7%

2%
22%
49%
22%
5%

0%
21%
63%
9%
6%

1%
41%
34%
17%
7%

1%
18%
60%
17%
3%

1%
33%
40%
15%
10%

1%
22%
54%
13%
10%

1%
30%
47%
17%
5%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(837)

(210)

(307)

(255)

(314)

(523)

(290)

(491)

Gender
Very good
Fairly good
Fairly bad
Very bad
Not sure

Tea Party

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

1%
28%
48%
16%
7%

2%
28%
56%
11%
3%

1%
27%
40%
21%
12%

0%
30%
37%
12%
21%

1%
28%
42%
21%
7%

2%
25%
54%
15%
4%

0%
32%
47%
14%
6%

1%
26%
49%
15%
8%

0%
30%
46%
19%
5%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(837)

(421)

(416)

(95)

(184)

(371)

(187)

(653)

(144)

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Pennsylvania Likely Republican Voters

2. Likelihood of Voting
How likely is it that you will vote in the 2016 Presidential primary in Pennsylvania?
Ideology
Definitely will vote
Probably will vote
Maybe will vote
Probably will not vote
Definitely will not vote
I already voted early in-person or by
mail (absentee)
Dont know
Totals
(Weighted N)

Tea Party

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

89%
6%
2%
1%
0%

95%
3%
1%
0%
0%

89%
6%
3%
1%
0%

89%
4%
4%
0%
0%

95%
3%
0%
0%
0%

86%
7%
4%
1%
0%

86%
8%
2%
1%
0%

92%
3%
3%
1%
0%

1%
1%

1%
0%

1%
0%

0%
2%

2%
0%

0%
2%

1%
2%

1%
0%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(837)

(210)

(307)

(255)

(314)

(523)

(290)

(491)

Gender
Definitely will vote
Probably will vote
Maybe will vote
Probably will not vote
Definitely will not vote
I already voted early in-person or by
mail (absentee)
Dont know
Totals
(Weighted N)

Evangelical

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

89%
6%
2%
1%
0%

91%
3%
3%
1%
0%

88%
8%
2%
0%
1%

80%
13%
5%
2%
0%

84%
7%
4%
1%
1%

92%
4%
1%
1%
0%

94%
5%
1%
0%
0%

89%
6%
2%
1%
0%

91%
5%
2%
1%
0%

1%
1%

1%
1%

0%
1%

0%
0%

2%
1%

1%
2%

0%
0%

1%
1%

0%
0%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(837)

(421)

(416)

(95)

(184)

(371)

(187)

(653)

(144)

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Pennsylvania Likely Republican Voters

3. First Choice Republican Candidate

Which candidate are you most likely to vote for in the Pennsylvania Republican Presidential primary in 2016?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Ideology

Tea Party

Evangelical

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

Ted Cruz
John Kasich
Donald Trump
No preference

26%
23%
46%
4%

46%
12%
40%
2%

26%
24%
47%
4%

15%
34%
48%
3%

41%
8%
49%
2%

17%
32%
45%
5%

34%
23%
40%
2%

22%
24%
50%
4%

Totals
(Weighted N)

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(833)

(209)

(307)

(252)

(310)

(522)

(286)

(491)

Gender

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

Ted Cruz
John Kasich
Donald Trump
No preference

26%
23%
46%
4%

28%
24%
46%
2%

24%
23%
47%
6%

20%
52%
19%
9%

30%
24%
40%
6%

29%
14%
55%
2%

20%
26%
50%
3%

28%
21%
47%
4%

18%
35%
44%
4%

Totals
(Weighted N)

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(833)

(421)

(412)

(95)

(184)

(366)

(187)

(649)

(144)

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Pennsylvania Likely Republican Voters

4. Republican Candidate Support

Which best describes your support for [First Choice Candidate Name] right now?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Ideology
Very strong
Strong
Somewhat strong
Not too strong
Totals
(Weighted N)

Totals
(Weighted N)

Evangelical

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

52%
32%
13%
3%

65%
27%
7%
1%

48%
35%
15%
3%

44%
33%
16%
7%

60%
29%
9%
2%

47%
33%
15%
5%

52%
34%
12%
2%

52%
31%
13%
5%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(793)

(203)

(294)

(243)

(301)

(492)

(277)

(469)

Gender
Very strong
Strong
Somewhat strong
Not too strong

Tea Party

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

52%
32%
13%
3%

55%
31%
11%
4%

49%
32%
15%
4%

38%
40%
16%
6%

52%
30%
14%
5%

58%
30%
9%
2%

47%
32%
16%
4%

52%
34%
12%
2%

49%
24%
17%
9%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(793)

(406)

(387)

(87)

(169)

(356)

(181)

(617)

(138)

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Pennsylvania Likely Republican Voters

5. Republican Selection of Nominees

Overall, do you feel the Republicans process for selecting a nominee in 2016 has generally been fair or not fair so far?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Ideology
It has been fair
It has NOT been fair
Totals
(Weighted N)

Totals
(Weighted N)

Evangelical

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

52%
48%

61%
39%

48%
52%

47%
53%

57%
43%

49%
51%

57%
43%

49%
51%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(836)

(210)

(307)

(255)

(314)

(522)

(290)

(491)

Gender
It has been fair
It has NOT been fair

Tea Party

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

52%
48%

52%
48%

52%
48%

73%
27%

53%
47%

49%
51%

45%
55%

54%
46%

45%
55%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(836)

(421)

(415)

(95)

(184)

(370)

(186)

(653)

(144)

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Pennsylvania Likely Republican Voters

6. Republican Convention
As you may know, the Republican party requires a nominee to get 1,237 delegates in the primaries for the nomination. If Donald Trump does not get 1,237 but
Trump still has more delegates than Ted Cruz, and more delegates than John Kasich, what do you feel Republicans should do at the convention this summer?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Ideology
Select Trump, because hell still have
more delegates than any other
candidate
Let Trump, Cruz and Kasich fight for
delegate support at the convention to
decide the winner
Turn to someone new who isnt
running right now
Totals
(Weighted N)

Totals
(Weighted N)

Evangelical

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

47%

42%

47%

48%

49%

45%

44%

48%

45%

57%

43%

39%

47%

44%

49%

44%

8%

1%

9%

13%

3%

10%

8%

8%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(835)

(210)

(307)

(253)

(314)

(520)

(288)

(491)

Gender
Select Trump, because hell still have
more delegates than any other
candidate
Let Trump, Cruz and Kasich fight for
delegate support at the convention to
decide the winner
Turn to someone new who isnt
running right now

Tea Party

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

47%

45%

49%

21%

41%

55%

50%

47%

48%

45%

49%

42%

69%

47%

40%

42%

46%

44%

8%

6%

10%

10%

12%

5%

9%

7%

8%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(835)

(421)

(413)

(95)

(184)

(368)

(187)

(651)

(144)

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Pennsylvania Likely Republican Voters

7. Republican Candidate Traits Electable in november

Which of the candidates do you feel is the most...
Asked of Republican primary voters

Ideology

Tea Party

Evangelical

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
John Kasich

47%
24%
29%

42%
39%
20%

49%
19%
32%

46%
20%
33%

49%
34%
17%

46%
18%
36%

46%
28%
26%

48%
22%
31%

Totals
(Weighted N)

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(801)

(208)

(301)

(235)

(305)

(496)

(274)

(475)

Gender

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
John Kasich

47%
24%
29%

45%
23%
32%

49%
25%
26%

27%
15%
58%

37%
32%
31%

55%
24%
21%

52%
20%
28%

48%
25%
27%

42%
20%
38%

Totals
(Weighted N)

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(801)

(406)

(394)

(93)

(173)

(351)

(183)

(624)

(138)

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Pennsylvania Likely Republican Voters

8. Republican Candidate Traits Understanding of people like you

Which of the candidates do you feel is the most...
Asked of Republican primary voters

Ideology

Tea Party

Evangelical

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
John Kasich

45%
28%
27%

42%
44%
14%

44%
27%
29%

46%
19%
35%

46%
41%
12%

45%
19%
36%

39%
37%
23%

49%
23%
28%

Totals
(Weighted N)

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(801)

(209)

(300)

(235)

(309)

(491)

(273)

(475)

Gender

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
John Kasich

45%
28%
27%

47%
26%
28%

44%
30%
27%

22%
37%
42%

44%
27%
28%

52%
28%
20%

46%
22%
32%

45%
30%
25%

45%
18%
37%

Totals
(Weighted N)

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(801)

(410)

(391)

(95)

(174)

(353)

(178)

(625)

(138)

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Pennsylvania Likely Republican Voters

9. Republican Candidate Traits Effective at getting things done

Which of the candidates do you feel is the most...
Asked of Republican primary voters

Ideology

Tea Party

Evangelical

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
John Kasich

57%
18%
25%

49%
31%
20%

56%
19%
25%

61%
8%
31%

60%
26%
14%

56%
13%
31%

52%
27%
21%

59%
14%
27%

Totals
(Weighted N)

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(809)

(207)

(301)

(238)

(308)

(501)

(273)

(483)

Gender

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
John Kasich

57%
18%
25%

54%
19%
27%

61%
17%
22%

29%
17%
54%

62%
17%
21%

64%
20%
16%

55%
16%
30%

59%
19%
22%

51%
11%
38%

Totals
(Weighted N)

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(809)

(406)

(403)

(95)

(179)

(355)

(179)

(633)

(138)

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Pennsylvania Likely Republican Voters

10. Republican Candidate Traits Authentic

Which of the candidates do you feel is the most...
Asked of Republican primary voters

Ideology

Tea Party

Evangelical

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
John Kasich

45%
24%
31%

42%
42%
16%

44%
26%
30%

44%
9%
47%

45%
41%
15%

45%
13%
42%

41%
32%
26%

46%
20%
34%

Totals
(Weighted N)

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(803)

(207)

(295)

(241)

(307)

(496)

(276)

(475)

Gender

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
John Kasich

45%
24%
31%

45%
26%
29%

45%
21%
34%

35%
18%
47%

43%
25%
32%

50%
27%
23%

41%
19%
40%

46%
25%
28%

38%
17%
45%

Totals
(Weighted N)

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(803)

(410)

(393)

(95)

(168)

(358)

(182)

(624)

(141)

10

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Pennsylvania Likely Republican Voters

11. Republican Candidate Traits Conservative

Which of the candidates do you feel is the most...
Asked of Republican primary voters

Ideology

Tea Party

Evangelical

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
John Kasich

20%
64%
16%

17%
74%
9%

20%
69%
11%

21%
50%
29%

17%
76%
7%

22%
56%
21%

23%
60%
18%

18%
67%
15%

Totals
(Weighted N)

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(800)

(207)

(303)

(232)

(311)

(489)

(274)

(477)

Gender

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
John Kasich

20%
64%
16%

21%
69%
10%

20%
58%
22%

10%
68%
22%

17%
59%
24%

24%
66%
10%

21%
63%
16%

23%
62%
16%

12%
70%
18%

Totals
(Weighted N)

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(800)

(409)

(391)

(95)

(174)

(354)

(176)

(627)

(136)

11

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Pennsylvania Likely Republican Voters

12. Republican Candidate Traits Optimistic

Which of the candidates do you feel is the most...
Asked of Republican primary voters

Ideology

Tea Party

Evangelical

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
John Kasich

48%
24%
28%

43%
37%
20%

48%
25%
27%

47%
13%
39%

48%
33%
18%

48%
17%
35%

44%
32%
25%

48%
20%
31%

Totals
(Weighted N)

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(803)

(209)

(300)

(233)

(313)

(490)

(275)

(475)

Gender

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
John Kasich

48%
24%
28%

45%
24%
32%

52%
24%
25%

40%
17%
44%

39%
29%
32%

53%
24%
23%

52%
21%
27%

49%
25%
26%

43%
18%
39%

Totals
(Weighted N)

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(803)

(408)

(395)

(95)

(170)

(357)

(181)

(627)

(137)

12

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Pennsylvania Likely Republican Voters

13. Republican Vote Reasons

If you had to pick one, which of these is most important in your vote right now:
Asked of Republican primary voters

Ideology
Terrorism
Jobs and the economy
Immigration
Faith and values
Totals
(Weighted N)

Totals
(Weighted N)

Evangelical

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

19%
50%
15%
16%

18%
43%
15%
25%

20%
49%
18%
13%

23%
52%
12%
13%

19%
50%
16%
15%

20%
50%
15%
16%

20%
33%
14%
33%

20%
58%
17%
5%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(837)

(210)

(307)

(255)

(314)

(523)

(290)

(491)

Gender
Terrorism
Jobs and the economy
Immigration
Faith and values

Tea Party

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

19%
50%
15%
16%

14%
52%
16%
17%

24%
47%
14%
14%

16%
48%
15%
20%

21%
51%
8%
20%

16%
53%
17%
14%

27%
44%
18%
11%

19%
49%
15%
17%

23%
52%
15%
10%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(837)

(421)

(415)

(95)

(184)

(371)

(187)

(653)

(144)

13

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Pennsylvania Likely Republican Voters

14. Republican Stop Terrorism

Do you agree or disagree with the following: We need a President who will do whatever it takes to stop terrorism, including things that might restrict some peoples
civil liberties
Asked of Republican primary voters

Ideology
Agree
Disagree
Totals
(Weighted N)

Totals
(Weighted N)

Evangelical

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

68%
32%

70%
30%

72%
28%

63%
37%

72%
28%

66%
34%

75%
25%

64%
36%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(833)

(207)

(305)

(255)

(312)

(521)

(288)

(491)

Gender
Agree
Disagree

Tea Party

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

68%
32%

64%
36%

73%
27%

33%
67%

66%
34%

73%
27%

79%
21%

72%
28%

55%
45%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(833)

(419)

(413)

(95)

(184)

(369)

(184)

(651)

(143)

14

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Pennsylvania Likely Republican Voters

15. Republican Same-sex Marriage

Do you think the Republican partys platform on same-sex marriage should:
Asked of Republican primary voters

Ideology
Oppose same-sex marriages
Accept same-sex marriages
Not comment on same-sex marriage
either way
Totals
(Weighted N)

Totals
(Weighted N)

Evangelical

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

32%
26%

53%
9%

31%
19%

19%
45%

40%
16%

27%
33%

51%
14%

22%
34%

42%

38%

50%

36%

44%

40%

35%

44%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(836)

(210)

(306)

(255)

(313)

(523)

(290)

(490)

Gender
Oppose same-sex marriages
Accept same-sex marriages
Not comment on same-sex marriage
either way

Tea Party

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

32%
26%

32%
27%

32%
26%

18%
50%

34%
25%

35%
24%

31%
21%

35%
22%

20%
40%

42%

41%

42%

32%

41%

41%

48%

43%

40%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(836)

(421)

(414)

(95)

(183)

(370)

(187)

(652)

(144)

15

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Pennsylvania Likely Republican Voters

16. Republican Candidate Actions

The next Republican President needs to:
Asked of Republican primary voters

Ideology
Stand up to Democrats more
effectively
Negotiate with Democrats more
effectively
Totals
(Weighted N)

Totals
(Weighted N)

Evangelical

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

53%

73%

60%

26%

71%

42%

57%

50%

47%

27%

40%

74%

29%

58%

43%

50%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(835)

(210)

(305)

(255)

(313)

(523)

(289)

(491)

Gender
Stand up to Democrats more
effectively
Negotiate with Democrats more
effectively

Tea Party

Total

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

53%

57%

48%

44%

49%

60%

46%

57%

38%

47%

43%

52%

56%

51%

40%

54%

43%

62%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(835)

(420)

(415)

(95)

(184)

(369)

(187)

(652)

(144)

16

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Pennsylvania Likely Republican Voters

17. Trump General Election

If Donald Trump becomes the Republican nominee, how do you think he will approach the General election campaign this fall?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Ideology
He will continue to be as outspoken
as he is now
He will be less outspoken than he is
now
He will become more outspoken than
he is now
Totals
(Weighted N)

Totals
(Weighted N)

Evangelical

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

66%

75%

69%

55%

73%

62%

74%

60%

18%

13%

18%

23%

15%

20%

15%

21%

16%

12%

14%

22%

12%

18%

12%

19%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(830)

(209)

(303)

(253)

(312)

(518)

(285)

(489)

Gender
He will continue to be as outspoken
as he is now
He will be less outspoken than he is
now
He will become more outspoken than
he is now

Tea Party

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

66%

64%

68%

59%

69%

71%

59%

68%

64%

18%

21%

14%

26%

8%

16%

27%

17%

20%

16%

14%

17%

15%

24%

13%

14%

15%

17%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(830)

(417)

(413)

(95)

(184)

(366)

(184)

(651)

(139)

17

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Pennsylvania Likely Republican Voters

18. Republican Personal Changes Your own financial outlook

For you personally, do you feel each of these things is becoming...
Asked of Republican primary voters

Ideology
More secure
Staying the same
Less secure
Totals
(Weighted N)

Totals
(Weighted N)

Evangelical

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

7%
43%
50%

4%
38%
58%

11%
37%
53%

5%
52%
43%

6%
32%
61%

8%
50%
43%

8%
47%
44%

6%
41%
53%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(829)

(208)

(305)

(254)

(309)

(520)

(287)

(490)

Gender
More secure
Staying the same
Less secure

Tea Party

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

7%
43%
50%

11%
37%
52%

4%
50%
47%

21%
44%
34%

7%
47%
45%

5%
40%
55%

3%
45%
51%

7%
44%
49%

4%
44%
52%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(829)

(414)

(415)

(93)

(184)

(367)

(185)

(646)

(143)

18

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Pennsylvania Likely Republican Voters

19. Republican Personal Changes Your ability to practice your faith as you wish
For you personally, do you feel each of these things is becoming...
Asked of Republican primary voters

Ideology
More secure
Staying the same
Less secure
Totals
(Weighted N)

Totals
(Weighted N)

Evangelical

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

5%
51%
44%

3%
34%
63%

6%
46%
49%

5%
64%
31%

3%
35%
61%

6%
60%
34%

5%
36%
59%

5%
59%
36%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(830)

(209)

(304)

(254)

(309)

(520)

(287)

(491)

Gender
More secure
Staying the same
Less secure

Tea Party

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

5%
51%
44%

7%
43%
49%

2%
58%
40%

4%
64%
32%

3%
56%
41%

6%
43%
51%

5%
54%
41%

5%
50%
45%

2%
54%
44%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(830)

(415)

(415)

(93)

(184)

(367)

(186)

(647)

(143)

19

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Pennsylvania Likely Republican Voters

20. Republican Personal Changes Your freedom to say and do what you want
For you personally, do you feel each of these things is becoming...
Asked of Republican primary voters

Ideology
More secure
Staying the same
Less secure
Totals
(Weighted N)

Totals
(Weighted N)

Evangelical

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

4%
34%
62%

1%
24%
76%

5%
25%
71%

6%
47%
47%

3%
22%
75%

5%
41%
53%

3%
31%
66%

5%
35%
59%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(824)

(209)

(305)

(249)

(308)

(516)

(287)

(485)

Gender
More secure
Staying the same
Less secure

Tea Party

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

4%
34%
62%

5%
29%
66%

4%
39%
57%

6%
51%
43%

4%
32%
65%

5%
28%
67%

3%
40%
57%

4%
33%
63%

1%
38%
61%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(824)

(410)

(415)

(93)

(181)

(364)

(186)

(641)

(143)

20

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Pennsylvania Likely Republican Voters

21. Republican Personal Changes Your feeling of safety from terrorism

For you personally, do you feel each of these things is becoming...
Asked of Republican primary voters

Ideology
More secure
Staying the same
Less secure
Totals
(Weighted N)

Totals
(Weighted N)

Evangelical

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

4%
33%
63%

2%
25%
73%

4%
20%
76%

5%
48%
47%

4%
21%
76%

5%
40%
55%

5%
30%
65%

4%
34%
62%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(827)

(209)

(305)

(250)

(309)

(517)

(287)

(488)

Gender
More secure
Staying the same
Less secure

Tea Party

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

4%
33%
63%

5%
34%
61%

4%
31%
65%

12%
41%
46%

1%
41%
58%

4%
28%
67%

3%
29%
68%

4%
29%
67%

4%
44%
52%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(827)

(411)

(415)

(93)

(184)

(363)

(186)

(644)

(143)

21