Confidence Interval Estimates

Confidence intervals are used to find a range of values that we believe (with varying
degrees of confidence) the true population value falls.
Part 1: For the interval estimate of the proportion of yellow candies with 99% confidence
^p = 236/1464
(99)= 0.01
n= 1464
x= 236
^p = 0.1612022
/2 = 0.005

E=

a
2

^p -E= 0.1364554

E= 0.02474678

^p +E= .18594896

0.1364554 < p < .18594896

Part 2: For the interval estimate of the mean number of candies in a bag with 95% confidence

x = 61.3

n= 24

(95)= 0.05
/2 = 0.025

7.941
= 3.17868

58.1213 < < 64.478

E= 1.961

Part 3: For the interval estimate of the standard deviation of the number of candies in a bag with
98% confidence
s=
< <

n= 24

2
R

s= 7.941
= 41.638

38.0764

<

(98)= 0.02
X 2L = 10.196

/2 = 0.01

142.2487

For part 1 we are 99% confident that in each bag of skittles, the true proportion of yellow
candies would be between 14% and 19% per a bag.
For part 2 we are 95% confident that the true mean of the number of candies in each bag
is between 59 to 65 candies per a bag.
For part 3 we are 98% confident that the total number of candies in a bag will be between
39 candies and 143 candies.

Hypothesis Tests

The hypothesis test is used to make a statement about the value of a population
parameters equality (such as proportion, mean, or standard deviation) to some claimed
value.
Part 4: For testing the claim that 20% of Skittles are red using a 0.05 significance level
^p = 313/1464
(95)= .05
n= 1464
x= 313
^p = 0.2138
/2 = 0.025
H 0 : p = 0.2
H1:
p 0.2
z=

^p
p

z =1.32

p = 0.0934

0.0934 > 0.025 fail to reject null hypothesis

p value >
There is not sufficient evidence for us to reject the claim that the true percentage of red
Skittles in each bag is 20%.
Part 5: For testing the claim that the mean number of Skittles in a 2.17 oz. bag is 55.
(.01)=.01
/2 = 0.005
n= 24
x = 61.3
H 0 : = 55
H1:
55
t=

x
s

t=3.887 tchart for (23, .005)= 2.807

P=0.000745

There is sufficient evidence for us to reject the claim that the true mean of skittles per a
2.17 oz bag is 55.
Reflection:
Interval estimates and hypothesis tests are very closely related. They can almost be
considered each other's equivalent. The interval estimate is a precursor to the parameter
being estimated. The hypothesis test does just what the name implies; it tests a
hypothesis for a population. Interval estimates estimate the interval by which the overall
population can fall into when testing the hypothesis. Human error is always possible
when using data. There are also type 1 and type two errors where you reject the null
hypothesis but it is true and where you do not reject the null hypothesis but it is wrong,
respectively. The sampling method can be improved by increasing the test size. From
our research we have learned that there are generally more than 55 skittles per a bag.
We also learned that a majority of the skittles in a bag are red.