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Kathryn Chambers
CMST 430
Dr. Lyle
4 November 2014
Polling Theory
Modern campaigning has capitalized the focus of candidates and has also become
multifaceted more and more in todays society. It has become extremely important that the
increase of campaign strategies, the establishment of persuasive messages, and the creation and
engagement of advertising capture main focuses when trying to win an election. There are many
ways advertising occurs. Commercial advertisements placed in newspapers, magazines, and on
television are common and generally the first form of advertisement that comes to mind.
However, there are additional ways to advertise and campaign that have manifested over the
course of recent years. Some of which ways include polls and public opinion polls. Public
opinion polls have more importance today than ever before. Polls are an important concept to a
candidates campaign strategy. Polls can inform a political candidate on important issues, where
to direct their strategy and efforts, and influence potential contributors for support financially and
publically. Polls are a great method for candidates to monitor their campaigns and the opinions of
the public. They are conducted with variables and constants to make them scientific and as
accurate as possible. Pollsters are hired to utilize their resources, time and energy on constructing
effective polls, collecting data, and analyzing the results in order to benefit their candidates. It is
worth to note that not all polls are completely accurate. Polls can be as scientific as the pollster
constructs it. Because humans make polls and all humans make mistakes, there is room for error.
According to an article Freaking Out About Outliers: When the Polls Are Way Off, the author

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states, five percent of the time (one out of 20), well get results that are wildly wrong, just by
luck of draw. That is, a polling firm can be doing everything right, but if they conduct enough
polls, theyll occasional get bad results (Masket 1). With this statistic and the creative use of
advertisement, it must be understood that public opinion polls today are used more for persuasive
and advertising techniques than to display information. The use of polling for advertising is seen
from the types of polls out there, how polls are conducted, and the manner in which polls are
interpreted and reported.
According to the text in Politics and Communication in America, there are six types of
polls that are used most often. The first type is the focus group. This is a type of polling
comprises a group of people that discus what is important to them as far as their beliefs,
attitudes, and values. This group is small in number compared to the other types of polls, but the
individuals beliefs, attitudes and values help to develop a campaign strategy. Discussion topics,
campaign moves, and advertising maneuvers are tested using this type of polling. The second
type of polling is the benchmark poll. This is a common and basic type of polling that contains
five principal components:
(1) Survey the political mood of voters on all types of items such as evaluations
od he candidates, the economy, and the directions of the nation; (2) survey
attitudes on numerous issues in order to discover those most favorable to the
electorate; (3) attempt to reveal how voters perceive the candidates based on
personal attributes; (4) test potential candidate weakness in order to gauge the
magnitude of impact and how to answer criticism; and (5) focus on themes or
issues that will work against the opponent (Denton & Kuypers 190).

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The next type of polling is tracking polls. These polls are frequently conducted to understand
whether the current campaigning techniques are effective or not. They tend to track the
recognition of the candidates name and support on issues. The fourth and fifth types of polls are
dial groups and mall intercepts. These polls are similar to the focus group. Dial group is used by
the television and identifies groups of people with specific characteristic traits. Grouping and
identifying specific characteristics can evaluate a campaign message as effective or ineffective.
An interviewer approaches a specific topic and asks certain questions pertaining to the topic
when using mall intercepts. Both dial groups and mall intercepts are both conducted in public
places, like the mall. The last major type of polling is known as push polls. These are polls that
ask certain questions, usually with a negative connotation, that put ideas in the publics mind.
They push voters from the candidates opponent. It is a persuasive advertising technique that is
frowned upon in political campaigning, but is still used. With these main types of polling, it is
observed that the polls primary focuses are the attitudes and opinions of the public on messages
the pollsters and campaign managers dictate. They feed information, certain topics, and issues to
the public in favor of their campaign by essentially telling the public what they want to hear.
They then use this information to advise candidates on their political moves and therefore,
making the results of these polls more distinguished.
The types of polls mainly used are important in realizing that polls are advertising
techniques, but the way they are conducted contribute to a candidates campaign. They pertain
more to advertising than to scientific research. Each method of collecting data has advantages
and disadvantages and a pollster must choose the most appropriate. For example, mail surveys
are a commonly used method of polling. Because a questionnaire is mailed out and there is no
biased of the interviewer who must be trained or supported, it is an advantage to the polling firms

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(Hollihan 180). There are disadvantages, however. One disadvantage is that the uneducated are
less likely to respond. This excludes a portion of the population and the results may vary.
Another disadvantage is that the use of mail is not fast. It may take a few days or weeks for a
response. Another form of polling is the use of telephones. The advantages of telephone polling
are that they can be quick and instantaneous and generate fast reactions from breaking news.
However, like mailing polls, telephone polling also has disadvantages that challenge researches.
Phones may not be the most effective way of reaching a sample. Some circumstances may hinder
from a person participating in phone polls if they are working or unable to afford a phone.
According to the text, there is an economic biased with telephone polling that African
Americans and Hispanic Americans are often underrepresented in phone polls, that elderly
citizens may be less likely to respond to pollsters, and that as a result post stratification statistical
manipulations must be used to weight the data to ensure proper samples (Kaldenberg, Koenig, &
Becker, 1994; Voss, Gelman, & King, 1995) (Hollihan 181). By using telephone polling,
another large sample of the population is missed and can vary results. Internet polls are similar to
telephone and mailing polls. They have similar advantages such as speediness instantaneousness.
They also have similar disadvantages of economic bias. Elderly and low-income families are less
likely to use the Internet. Personal interviews can be useful because a response is given on the
spot, however there may be a form of biased due to training and support of the interviewer.
While it is clear that each poll has advantages and disadvantages to the techniques, it is
also important to acknowledge that after the data is collected, the interpretation and explanation
of the research can also have an effect on the outcomes of polls. In todays society, the collecting
of reliable samples is becoming more and more difficult. Each method of polling shares a
disadvantage; they all miss some measure of the population. It is crucial to the polling companies

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that these methods and results are as accurate and reliable as possible. With the growing number
of ways a poll can be conducted, there is also a growing number in which the results are
presented. In the text from Politics and Communication in America, Bill Hamilton observes that
there are three new trends in polling. First advertising material is being tested by new marketing
techniques. Second, telephone polling is being conducted to test radio spots or audio tracks.
Lastly, flash polls are becoming more and more popular (Denton & Kuypers 191). Flash polls
consist of a few questions and asked to a small number of people. Another problem with
presenting the information is that polls do not distinguish between opinion and awareness (191).
A sample may respond to the poll, but that does not indicate whether or not they understand the
questions or the issues at hand. On the same note, people who have very strong opinions and
influences, but do not participate in polling, are not accounted for. The text also states that the
error must be below five percent or the information is worthless. Political opinion polls are used
more for persuasion, image control, and image creation than reports of information (191). A
campaigning staff working for a specific candidate will not release a poll that shows negatively
for the candidate they are working for. It does not make sense for a campaign to release negative
advertising. Therefore, by campaigners controlling the polls that are released, they are able to
control the positive or negative information given to the mass media.
The use of polling for determining actual success can be dangerous. Polls are a great way
to put a candidates name out there, find what issues are important and gain financial and public
support. However, polls are not the end all be all. There is room for error and outlier. A candidate
must understand that with the different methods of polling such as flash pools, push polls, and
interviews, polls are used for advertising purposes and campaign strategy. A candidate should
never get too comfortable with the results of a public opinion poll before the election. A

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candidate may have an idea of where he or she stands, but that should not determine the effort of
the campaign. Polls are a great tool for strategizing a campaign and providing a certain type of
advertisement.

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Works Cited

Denton, Robert E., and Jim A. Kuypers. Politics and Communication in America: Campaigns,
Media, and Governing in the 21st Century. Long Grove, IL: Waveland, 2008. Print.
Hollihan, Thomas A. "The Importance of Public Opinion Polls." Uncivil Wars: Political
Campaigns in a Media Age. Boston: St. Martin's, 2009. 167-97. Print.
Masket, Seth. "Freaking Out About Outliers: When the Polls Are Way, Way Off." Pacific
Standard.

N.p.,

22

Sept.

2014.

Web.

03

Nov.

2014.

<http://www.psmag.com/navigation/politics-and-law/freaking-outliers-polling-votingelection-colorado-senate-quinnipiac-91043/>.