America's Current Wall: Border Security and Tactical Infrastructure Spending

April
2016 Issue #16

The
Soter Group
AMERICAS CURRENT WALL Border Security and Tactical Infrastructure Spending

One of the fundamental roles of government is to protect its citizens. Throughout time, walls have been
constructed in various forms castle walls for medieval kings, the Great Wall of China, the Berlin Wall,
to name a few. The United States southwest border has had walls, fences, and gates for decades. An
analysis of the last twenty years, particularly the last two administrations, provides some useful
information and data regarding efforts to secure the southwest border while also facilitating trade,
tourism, and legal immigration. The key to securing any border of the U.S. is the balancing act of policy,
effectiveness of programs (e.g., fences, gates, surveillance), and incentives and disincentives that
influence trade, tourists, immigrants, criminals, and terrorists.
The Secure Border Initiative (SBI) was announced in November 2005 during George W. Bushs
Presidency. A portion of this initiative focused on tactical infrastructure (TI) namely, physical assets
such as fences, gates, roads, lighting, etc. that would assist the Border Patrol in its mission to gain
operational control of the Southwest border. The other primary focus of SBI was on surveillance
technology and sensors that could be deployed along the border. Investments in TI and SBI technology
were collectively captured within U.S. Customs and Border Protections (CBP) Border Security Fencing,
Infrastructure and Technology (BSFIT) budget account. Following the end of the program in 2011, the
SBI TI program had added 515-530 miles of primary pedestrian and vehicle fencing along the Southwest
border (in addition to pre-existing fencing of approximately 120-135 miles).
Miles of Southwest Border Fencing and Tac>cal Infrastructure Spending
700
$1,800
600
$1,600
500
$1,400
$1,200
400
$1,000
300
$800
$600
200
$400
100
$200
$-
Miles of Primary Pedestrian and Vehicle Fencing
$2,000
Government Fiscal Year

Total Border Security Fencing, Infrastructure and Technology (BSFIT) Budget
Major Southwest Border Tac`cal Infrastructure Program Prime Contract Obliga`ons

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April 2016 Issue #16

The
Soter Group
As of March 2011, just several months after the SBI program was cancelled, CBP reported a total
cumulative investment of $2.9 billion in the Tactical Infrastructure program. Around the same time, it
was estimated that the total 20-year lifecycle cost of the Tactical Infrastructure program including pre-
SBI infrastructure, deployment, and ongoing operation and maintenance would be roughly $6.5 billion.
Concurrently, CBP reported a dramatic decrease in apprehensions along the Southwest border, from
nearly 1.2 million in fiscal year 2005 to a recent low of approximately 330,000 in 2011. While significant
investment was directed towards the deployment of border fencing, a ramp up in spending and staffing
for the Border Patrol occurred as well. The Border Patrols total program budget increased from $1.5
billion in 2005 to over $3.5 billion in 2011; meanwhile, staffing along the Southwest border nearly
doubled from 9,891 to 18,506.
Unfortunately, interpretation of this data is not entirely straightforward. Is the decrease in
apprehensions due entirely to deterrence or are alternate channels being used for illegal immigration
and cross-border activities? Is there less activity due to the relative economic environments or other
factors? Assuming the decrease can be attributed to security infrastructure, technology, and personnel
deployments in the region, limited data makes it difficult to granularly discern the relative contributions
of each of these categories of investment.
Southwest Border Apprehensions
20,000
$4,000
18,000
16,000
$3,000
14,000
$2,500
12,000
10,000
$2,000
8,000
$1,500
6,000
$1,000
4,000
$500
2,000
-
Border Patrol Program Budget (in $ millions)
$3,500
$-

Southwest Border Apprehensions (in '000s)
Border Patrol Southwest Border Stang


The
Soter Group
Other dynamics on the border also complicate the assessment of whether building additional walls
along the U.S.-Mexico border would be a prudent and effective solution. What is the marginal utility of
each extra foot of fence height or mile of fence length? How much is the U.S. willing to spend on each
apprehension? One notable trend is that the ratio of Mexicans to non-Mexicans apprehended along the
border has been shifting in favor of non-Mexicans. No longer is the U.S-Mexico border strictly an issue
between the U.S. and Mexico. The U.S. and Mexico should work closely together to better understand
the increase in non-Mexicans crossing the border and how to address and mitigate this trend.
Composi>on of Southwest Border Apprehensions
1,800,000
120%
1,600,000
100%
1,400,000
80%
1,000,000
60%
800,000
600,000
40%
400,000
% Mexican
1,200,000
20%
200,000
-
0%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Mexicans
Other Than Mexicans (OTMs)

President Bush versus President Obama
President Bush spent $2.7 billion on BSFIT investments, including SBI and TI activities, from fiscal
year 2006 to 2008; and President Obama has funded, expanded, and maintained these
investments for the last eight years with $3.7 billion in aggregate budget.
President Bush spent $13.7 billion on Border Patrol Programs over eight years. President Obama
is expected to spend an estimated $27.5 billion over his eight years in office.
President Bush had an average of 12,180 Border Patrol agents nationwide per year during his
tenure. Under President Obama, staffing levels have averaged 20,863 to date.
Under President Bush, 8.0 million apprehensions were made on the Southwest border.
President Obama administration has apprehended 2.9 million to date during his tenure.
A secure border has been important to both Republican and Democratic Presidents. President Obama
has spent more on the Southwest border than any other President in U.S. history. However, the U.S.
must always come back to the basics: what are the right policies, programs, budgets, immigrant
incentives/disincentives that will enable the U.S. to protect itself, promote tourism and fair trade, and
stop individuals from unlawfully entering or leaving the country?

The
Soter Group
About The Soter Group

The Soter Group provides services to both the Federal government and the commercial entities that
support it. Our Commercial Services Division provides market research and assessments, competitive
assessments, business development and sales pipeline support, and strategic advisory services to
commercial clients seeking to enter or grow in the Federal government security market. Justin Taft,
President & CEO, and Peter Wong, Director of Market Research, authored these perspectives. The Soter
Group welcomes the opportunity for our research to be cited in third-party reports. To learn more and
to hire The Soter Group, please visit www.TheSoterGroup.com and/or email info@TheSoterGroup.com.
To access and read all of our free market reports please visit: https://www.scribd.com/thesotergroupllc

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April

2016 Issue #16