RecentClimateTrendsinUrbanandRuralAreas

CityUniversityofNewYork,HunterCollege
DepartmentofGeography
By:IntiazMahamad
intiaz.mahamad34@myhunter.cuny.edu

Abstract
ThereisnodoubtthatclimatechangeposesarisktoNewYorkStatecommunitiesfromthe
AdirondackhighlandsdowntotheLongIslandshore.Whilethereisextensiveresearchonthis
environmentalmatter,acomparisonofchangesexperiencedbytwodistinctsettingsisrarely
thefocalpoint.Thispaperfocusedspecificallyonhowairtemperatureandprecipitationhave
changedoverthepastthirtyyearsbycomparinganurbansettingtoaruralsettingwithinNYS.
Thestudyfoundthattemperatureandprecipitationhaveincreasedwithinbothsites.However,
theincreaseismoresignificantintheruralsetting.While
temperaturesintheurbanregion
haveincreasedby0.54
C,temperaturesintheruralregionhavewarmedby1.30Cper27
years.Similarly,precipitationhasincreasedby180.9mmintheurbanregion,whiletherural
regionhasseenariseof288.1mmper27years.

Keywords:
Climatechange,climatetrends,urban,rural,NewYorkCity,theCatskillregion,
temperature,precipitation.

Introduction
Climatechangeandglobalwarmingareacknowledgedinternationallyasthemostsignificant
environmentaldilemmafacingtheworldtoday.Theplanetsairtemperaturehaswarmedby
0.6

C
throughoutthe20thcentury,andmanyclimatologistshaveconcludedthatwarmingwill
continueduringthe21stcenturyasconcentrationofgreenhousegasescontinuetorise.While
othercomponentssuchastheMilankovitchCyclesandpollutantaerosolsalsocontributeto
climatechange,increasingconcentrationofgreenhousegases,suchcarbondioxidevia
anthropogenicprocessesplayalargerroleinthisprocess.

Airtemperaturehasincreasedbyapproximately1.1
C
inthenortheasternregionoftheUnited
States
duringthe20thcentury.
Morespecifically,temperatureswithinNewYorkStatehave
increasedbyroughly1
C.AccordingtotheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC),
theincreaseinallroundsurfacetemperaturesareexpectedtolingerinthe21stcentury,and
willmostcertainlybefollowedbychangesinprecipitation,aswellasinhydrologicalprocesses
suchassnowmeltandstreamflow.

Howcertainregionsoftheworldwillbeaffectedbyclimatechangeremainsunsure.To
understandhowurbanandruralareashaverespondedtoclimatechangespecificallywithin
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NewYorkState,astudyusingtheclimaticparametersofairtemperatureandprecipitationwas
conducted.Thestudyfocusedonrecentclimatictrendsbyusingdatafromthepastthirtyyears.
Thehypothesisisthaturbanareas,comparedtoruralareas,haveexperiencedthegreatest
changeintemperatureandprecipitation.Morespecifically,urbanareashaveseenthegreatest
increaseintemperatureandprecipitation.

Methodology

StudySite
Tounderstandhowanurbanandruralsettinghasvariablyrespondedtoclimatechangeinthe
pastthirtyyearsintermsoftemperatureandprecipitation,twolocationswithinNewYork
Statewerechosenasstudysites:NewYorkCity,representingtheurbansettlingandtheCatskill
Mountainregion,presentingtheruralsetting.Studysitesareapproximately100milesapart.In
relationtopopulation,NYChas8.4millionpeople,whiletheCatskillregionhasabout500,000
2
people.Intermsofsize,NYChasanareaof1,215km
;whiletheCatskillregionhasanareaof
2
15,500km
.

TheCatskillregionencompassestheNYScountiesofDelaware,Greene,Schoharie,Sullivan,and
Ulster.Geologically,theregionsitsontheAlleghenyPlateau,andiscomposedofmostly
sedimentarybedrock.Dissectedbystreamsandrivers,themountainousregionhas
approximately35peaksthatriseaboveanelevationof1000meters.Itsclimateisidentifiedas
humidcontinentalthatfeaturescoldwintersandcoolsummers,andabundantrainand
snowfallthatiscomparablyuniformyearround.Theregionislargelyforested,however,there
aredairyfarmsinlowlandareas.

TheNewYorkCityregionencompassestheboroughsoftheBronx,Manhattan,Queens,
Brooklyn,andStatenIsland.Geologically,thecityislocatedofmostlymetamorphicbedrocks
suchasschistandgneiss.Itsclimateislabeledashumidsubtropicalwithcoldanddamp
winters,andhotandhumidsummers.Whileprecipitationfallsyearround,Springisusuallythe
wettesttimeoftheyear.UnliketheCatskillregion,NYCishighlyurbanizedwithskyscrapers,
concretesidewalks,bridgesandcommercialvehicles.

Allweatherstationsusedwereexaminedforpossibleinclusioninthisstudy.Weatherstations
wereusedifthey1)containsustaineddatagatheringwithnomorethanfivechronological
yearsofamissingdata,and2)hadnotbeenmovedtoalocationmorethan5kilometersaway
ortoanaltitudehigherthan25meters.Thesebenchmarksprovidedsixsitesofdifferingrecord
forstudy:threeinNYCandthreeintheCatskillregion.ThestationsusedintheNYCanalysisare
CentralPark,LaGuardiaAirportandJohnF.KennedyAirport.ThestationsusedfortheCatskill

regionareSlideMountain,EastJewettandMohonkLake.Table1showsasummaryofthe
weatherstationsusedinthisstudy,whileFigure1showstheirgeographicpositions.

Sitename

SiteID

Location

Latitude
(N)

Longitude
(W)

Elevation
(m)

CentralPark

305801 NewYorkCity

40.78

73.97

40

LaGuardia
Airport

305811 NewYorkCity

40.78

73.88

JohnF.Kennedy 305803 NewYorkCity

Airport

40.64

73.76

SlideMountain

307799

Catskill
region

42.02

74.42

808

EastJewett

302366

Catskill
region

42.24

74.14

607

MohonkLake

305426

Catskill
region

41.77

74.16

380

Table1:
Thelocationsanddescriptionsoftheweatherstationswhosedatawereevaluatedin
thisresearch,andarefromNOAA'sNationalCentersforEnvironmentalInformation(NCEI).

Figure1:
Thegeographicpositionsoftheweatherstationsunderstudy.Theimageontheleft
showstheCatskillregionsanditsstations,whiletheimageontherightshowsNYC.

Data
Thedataforthisstudywasobtainedfromthe
NationalCentersforEnvironmentalInformation
(NCEI)throughtheNationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration(NOAA).TheNCEIis
knownforhavingtheworld'slargestarchiveofweatherdata.Themeandaily,monthlyand
annualtemperaturedatarecordedindegreesCelsiuswereobtainedfromtheorganization,as
wellastotaloraccumulateddaily,monthlyandannualprecipitationdatarecordedin
millimeters.PrecipitationdataobtainedfromNCEIincludesbothaccumulatedrainfalland
snowfall.Datafrom1985to2014wasoriginallycollected.However,theyears1985and
20132014wereeliminatedtomakethedataofallstationsconsistent,andtoalsohavean
invariablecomparisonperiodforeachdatacategory.Thisstudythereforeusesa
twentysevenyearperiod;19862012.

Results
Inthissection,thetrendresultsareshownfor1)monthlyandannualmeansurface
temperatureand2)monthlyandannualtotaloraccumulatedprecipitation.Anadditionalstudy
wascarriedouttoshowreturnperiodsforextremeprecipitationcases.Thoseresultswillalso
beshowninthissection.

Temperature
Meanmonthlytemperatureincreasedatallsixsitesthatwereassessedinthisstudy(Figure
2ab).ThewarmingtrendattheNewYorkCitysitesvariesfrom0.00240.0043
Camonth,
whileincreasingtrendattheCatskillregionsitesvariesfrom0.00380.0077Camonth.On
average,temperatureshavewarmedby0.0034CamonthinNewYorkCity,comparedto
0.0056CamonthintheCatskillregion.

Figure2a.

Figure2b.

Figure2a
showstemperaturechangesamonthperCatallsixsitesusedinthisstudy.
Figure
2b
showsatimeseriesofmonthlymeantemperatureatallsixsitesfromJanuary1986to
December2012.

Meanannualtemperaturealsowarmedatallsixsitesthatwereassessedinthisstudy(Figure
3ab).TheincreasingtrendsattheNewYorkCitysitesvariesfrom0.010.03
Cayear,while
increasingtrendsattheCatskillregionsitesvariesfrom0.030.07Cayear.Onaverage,
temperatureshavewarmedby0.02CayearinNewYorkCity,comparedto0.05Cayearin
theCatskillregion.

Figure3a.

Figure3b.

Figure3a
showstemperaturechangesayearperCatallsixsitesusedinthisstudy.
Figure3b
showsatimeseriesofannualmeantemperatureatallsixsitesfrom1986to2012.

Precipitation
Allsixsitesinbothregionsshowedincreasingprogressioninthemonthlyprecipitationamount
(Figure4ab).Thesetrendsrangefrom0.040.06mmpermonthforNewYorkCitysites,and
0.070.10mmpermonthforCatskillregionsites.Overthecourseoftwentysevenyears,
precipitationincreasedonaverageby0.05mmpermonthinNewYorkCity,comparedto0.08
mmpermonthintheCatskills.

Figure4a.

Figure4b.

Figure4a
showschangesinprecipitationmeasuredinmmpermonthatallsixsitesusedinthis
study.
Figure4b
showsatimeseriesofaccumulatedmonthlyprecipitationatallsixsitesfrom
January1986toDecember2012.

Increasingtrendsintheannualaccumulatedprecipitationamountwerealsoshownatallsix
sites(Figure5ab).Thesetrendsrangefrom5.57.0mmperyearforNewYorkCitysites,and
8.314.8mmperyearforCatskillregionsites.Overthecourseofthetwentysevenyearperiod
usedinthisstudy,precipitationincreasedonaverageby6.70mmperyearinNewYorkCity,
comparedto10.67mmperyearinCatskills.

Figure5a.

Figure5b.

Figure5a
showschangesinprecipitationmeasuredinmmperyearatallsixsitesusedinthe
study.
Figure5b
showsatimeseriesofaccumulatedannualprecipitationatallsixsitesfrom
1986to2012.

ReturnPeriod
Tounderstandthefrequencyofextremeprecipitationevents,specificallythosethatarehigher
thannormalatthetwostudysites,theProbabilityofOccurrence(Fa)andReturnPeriodwere
computedforallsixsites.Thereturnperiodestimatesthelikelihoodofanevent,suchasan
earthquake,floodorextremeprecipitationtooccur,usingtheprobabilityofoccurrenceofthe
8

event.Table2showstheformulasusedandFigure6abshowtheresultsoftheanalysis.The
probabilityofoccurrenceandreturnperiodwerecalculatedforbothmonthlyandannual
precipitationeventsfrom1986to2012.

ProbabilityofOccurrence(Fa,100%):
100(2n1)/2y
n=rankofeachevent
y=totalnumberofevents

ReturnPeriod:
100/Fa
Fa=probabilityofoccurrence(100%)

Table2:
Theformulascontactedandusedfortheprobabilityofoccurrenceandreturnperiod
analysisofextremeprecipitationcases.

Findingsfromtheanalysisofmonthlyprecipitationdatashowedthatextremeeventswithhigh
accumulationsofrainfallandorsnowfallhaveareturnperiodofapproximately211634
monthswithprecipitationamountsof425481mm.Findingsfromtheanalysisofannual
precipitationdatashowedthatextremeeventswithhighaccumulationsofrainfallandor
snowfallhaveareturnperiodofapproximately1854yearswithprecipitationamountsof
16541850mm.FindingsfromtheanalysisalsoshowthatAugust2011wasthewettestmonth
duringthetwentysevenyearperiodatfourofthesixsitesusedinthisstudy(October2005for
MohonkLakeandSlideMountain).Andtheyear2011isthewettestyearfrom1986to2012at
fiveofthesixsitesusedinthestudy(1996forSlideMountain).Manymeteorologistscredit
HurricaneIrene,whichmadelandfallinNewYorkonAugust28th,2011,formakingthismonth
andyearoneofthewettesttime
everrecordedsincerecordkeepingbegan.

Figure6a:
ThereturnperiodofmonthlyprecipitationfromJanuary1986toDecember2012.

Figure6b:
Returnperiodofannualprecipitationfrom1986to2012.

Figure6a
showsthereturnperiodofmonthlyaccumulatedprecipitationfor
allsixsitesusedin
thestudyfromJanuary1986toDecember2012.
Figure6b
showsthe
returnperiodofannual
accumulatedprecipitationfor
allsixsitesduringthetwentysevenyearperiod.

Discussion
ThisstudyofclimatechangeinNewYorkCityandtheCatskillMountainsrevealedaninclination
forsurfacetemperatureandprecipitationtorisefrom1986to2012.Temperaturesintheurban
regionhaveincreasedby0.54
Cper27years,whiletemperaturesintheruralregionhave
increaseddrasticallyby1.30C.Precipitationintheurbanregionhasincreasedby180.9mm
per27years,and288.1mmper27yearsintheruralregion.Thisstudyofclimatechangehas
alsoshownthattemperatureandprecipitationincreaseisstrongerormoresignificantinthe
ruralregion,comparedtotheurbanregion.

Thetemporaltrendsinairtemperaturefoundinthisstudywerecomparedtothoseofthe
precedingstudiesofthe20thandearly21stcenturyonclimatechange.The
inclinations
found
inthisstudyareuniformwithapatternofnortheasternUSandglobal20thandearly21st
centuryclimatechangestudiesthathavebeennotedbyothers.ApreviousstudybyKeimetal.
(2003)foundthatmeanannualsurfacetemperaturewarmedby0.411.11Cduringthe20th
centuryacrosstheNortheast,whichincludesNewYorkState.TrombulakandWolfson(2004)
alsofoundthat20thcenturytemperaturesinNewYorkhaveincreasedby0.86C.

Thetemporaltrendsinprecipitationfoundinthisstudywerealsoanalyzedtothoseofexisting
studiesofthe20thandearly21stcentury.AccordingtotheIPCC(2001),precipitationamount
hasincreasedgloballyby2%duringthe20thcentury.AstudybyLinsandSlack(1999)found
thatprecipitationincreasedacrosstheNortheastfrom19441993.Morespecifically,andmore
10

recently,Burnsetal.(2006)foundthatprecipitationhasincreasedinNewYorkfrom
19522005.The19862012increaseinmonthlyandannualprecipitationreportedinthisstudy
isthereforeuniformwiththeconclusionsofpreviousstudies.

Whiletemporaltrendsinairtemperatureandprecipitationfoundinthisstudymatchesfindings
foundinothercontemporarystudies,trendsdonomatchgloballyinrelationtoclimatechange
inurbanandruralregions.AstudybyKaracaetal.(1995)inTurkeyshowedurbanregionsin
thesouthandruralregionsinthenorthresponddifferentlytoclimatechange.Thestudyfound
anupwardtrendinurbantemperatures,whileacoolingtrendwasreportedintherural
temperatures.AsimilarstudybyZelenaovaetal.(2015)inSlovakiafoundthatairtemperatures
andprecipitationincreasedinbothurbanandruralareas.However,theupwardtrendismore
significantinurbanareas.

ThefindingsfromtheSlovakiastudyisunliketheresultsfoundinthisstudy,whichshowsthat
ruralareashavemoresignificantupwardtrends,comparedtourbanareas,inairtemperature
andprecipitation.Itcanthereforebeconcludedthattheresultsfoundinthesestudiespresent
evidencethaturbanandruralareasresponddifferentlytoclimatechangeglobally.To
understandhowurbanandruralareashaverespondedtoclimatechangeintheNortheast,
morespecificallyinNewYork,furtherstudieswillhavetobeconducted.Studiesinvolvingother
urbanandruralareas,besidesNewYorkCityandtheCatskillMountainregion,willneedtobe
carriedouttocometoastrongerconclusion.

Whileuncertaintyremainsonhowurbanandruralareashaverespondedtoclimatechange
globally,itiscertainlyevidentthatincreasingtrendsatareasofhigherelevationaremore
pronounced.SlideMountain,thehighestpeakintheCatskillMountainregionandtheonly
mountainweatherstationusedinthisstudy,showsthestrongestincreasingtrendinmeanair
temperatures.Locatingatanelevationof808m,temperatureshavewarmedby
0.0077Ca
monthand0.07Cayearfrom1986to2012.Burnsetal.(2006)foundthattemperaturesat
thissitehaveincreasedby1.8Cduringthe19622005studyperiod.Andsimilartrendswere
foundinastudybyFreietal.(2002),atthesamelocation.

Conclusion
Thefindingsofthisresearchdemonstrateapatternofincreasingsurfacetemperaturesand
precipitationduring19862012inNewYorkCityandtheCatskillMountainregion.Thetrendsin
surfacetemperatureandprecipitationrecognizedherearepredominantlyuniformwithother
studiesinthenortheasternUS.Inrelationtohowtheurbanandruralareashaverespondedto
climatechange,findingsfromthisstudyshowthatCatskillMountain,aruralregion,hasseen
moresignificantorpronouncedincreasingtrendsinbothweathervariablesdiscussedinthe

11

study.Whileotherglobalstudieshaveshowndifferentresults,itcanbeconcludedthaturban
andruralregionsgloballywillresponddifferentlytoclimatechange.

Ultimately,theconclusionofthisstudyadvocatethathighelevationsitesasillustratedbythe
SlideMountainweathersitecouldbeheatingatasubstantialratethantheclimateoflower
elevationsites.Thisfindingissignificantasthewatersupplyofmanycitiescomefromhigh
elevationmountainousregions.Therefore,manymountainousregionsinthenortheastandin
otherlocationsshouldbecarefullymonitoredtotrackfuturechangesthatwouldgrantamore
preciseevaluationoftheforthcomingwatersupply.

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