1/7/2013

GI TR HIN TI RNG - NPV (Net Present Value)

T S LI CH CHI PH - B/C (Benefits Costs)

THI GIAN HON VN PP (Payback Period)

SUT SINH LI NI B - IRR (Internal Rate of Return)

U TIN THM NH GIA CH TIU NPV, IRR

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1/7/2013

GI TR HIN TI RNG - NPV (Net Present Value)

NPV dng o s thay i li ch rng ca d n, v s dng
nh l mt iu kin quyt nh u t.
Cng thc:

(B0 C0 ) (B1 C1 ) (B2 C2 )

(Bn Cn )
+
+
+
....
+
(1+ r)0
(1+ r)1
(1+ r)2
(1+ r)n
n ( Bt Ct )
NPV =
t
t =0 (1 + r )
NPV =

Trong :
Bt: L li ch ca d n trong giai on t
Ct: L chi ph ca d n trong giai on t
r: T sut chit khu kinh t hoc ti chnh
n: S nm hot ng ca d n
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Quy tc nh gi d n bng ch tiu NPV

a. Cc d n u t c lp nhau
Nguyn tc: Khng chp nhn bt k d n u t no ngoi tr d
n u t to ra mt NPV dng (> 0) khi c chit khu bi sut
chit khu ph hp.
V d:
D.n A: Gi tr chi ph hin ti 1 triu $, NPV: + 70.000
D.n B: Gi tr chi ph hin ti 5 triu $, NPV: - 50.000
D.n C: Gi tr chi ph hin ti 2 triu $, NPV: +100.000
D.n D: Gi tr chi ph hin ti 3 triu $, NPV: - 25.000
Chp nhn u t d n no?

1/7/2013

Quy tc nh gi d n bng ch tiu NPV

b. Cng ty c mt gii hn v ngn sch
Nguyn tc: Trng hp c s gii hn v ngn sch, th chn la
cc d n u t (phng n) no m to ra NPV ln nht trong kh
nng ngn sch u t cho php.
V d: Tp hp cc d n c m t cc c hi u t m cng ty
phi la chn vi mt ngn sch c nh chi cho vn l 4 triu la.
D n E: Chi ph 1 triu la, NPV l + 60.000
D n F: Chi ph 3 triu la, NPV l + 400.000
D n G: Chi ph 2 triu la, NPV l + 150.000
D n H: Chi ph 2 triu la, NPV l + 225.000
Nu gi s: D n E c NPV l 60.000, chn nh th no?

Quy tc nh gi d n bng ch tiu NPV

c. Cc d n loi tr ln nhau
Nguyn tc: Trong trng hp ngn sch khng gii hn, nhng ch
c la chn 1 d n thc hin th cng ty nn chn d n u
t no m to ra NPV ln nht.
* Cc d n c iu kin quy m u t, thi gian thc hin, sut
chit khu l bng nhau.
V d:
D.n I: Gi tr chi ph hin ti 1 triu $, NPV: 300.000
D.n J: Gi tr chi ph hin ti 4 triu la, NPV: 700.000
D.n K: Gi tr chi ph hin ti 1,5 triu la, NPV: 600.000
D n c chn ?

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Quy tc nh gi d n bng ch tiu NPV

d. Cc d n c th loi tr ln nhau, thi gian u t khng
bng nhau
Trong trng hp ngn sch khng gii hn, nhng ch c la
chn 1 d n thc hin, v cc d n phi chn la c thi gian
th chin khng bng nhau th c th s dng 2 phng php:
Phng php thay th

Phng php dng tin bng nhau

Bc 1: Tnh NPV theo

vng i nguyn thy
Bc 2: Tmvng i
chung cho 2 d n
Bc 3: iu chnh NPV
theo vng i chung mi
Bc 4: Thm nh theo
NPV mi

Bc 1: Tnh NPV theo vng

i nguyn thy
Bc 2: Chuyn dng tin
ban u thnh dng tin u
Bc 3: Hiu chnh NPV
theo dng tin u v v hn
Bc 4: Thm nh theo NPV
mi hiu chnh
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T S LI CH CHI PH - B/C (Benefits Costs)

T s li ch chi ph (B/C)
Cng thc:

Hin gi li ch
Hin gi chi ph

PV(B)
PV(C)

Bt
t
t = 0 (1 + r )
B /C = n
Ct

t
t = 0 (1 + r )

Trong :
PV(B): Hin gi li ch
PV(C): Hin gi chi ph

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Quy tc nh gi d n bng ch tiu - B/C

a. Cc d n u t c lp nhau
Nguyn tc:
Cc d n c B/C 1 s c chp nhn u t.
Cc d n c B/C < 1 s b loi b.
V d:
D n I: Chi ph PV: 1 triu $, Li ch PV: 1,3 triu $
B/C = 1,3/1 = 1.3
D n J: Chi ph PV: 8 triu $, Li ch PV: 9,4 triu $
B/C = 9,4/8 = 1.175
D n K: Chi ph PV: 1.5 triu $, Li ch PV: 2,1triu $
B/C = 2,1/1,5 = 1.4
Nu da vo ch tiu ny, c th chp nhn c 3 d n.
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Quy tc nh gi d n bng ch tiu - B/C

b. Cc d n loi tr ln nhau
Trng hp ny thm nh cc d n theo ch tiu B/C c th
dn n cc quyt nh sai lm v u t.
V d:
D n I, Chi ph PV: 1triu $, Li ch PV: 1,3triu$
B/C = 1,3/1 = 1.3;
NPV = 0,3 triu
D n J: Chi ph PV: 8 triu $, Li ch PV: 9,4 triu$
B/C = 9,4/8 = 1.175; NPV = 1,4 triu
D n K: Chi ph PV: 1.5 triu $, Li ch PV: 2,1triu $
B/C = 2,1/1,5 = 1.4; NPV = 0,6 triu
Nu da vo ch tiu B/C chn d n?
Nu da vo ch tiu NPV chn d n?
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THI GIAN HON VN PP (Payback Period)

PP l thi gian cn thit hon tr s vn u t t li ch rng
n
ca d n.
NCFt
Cng thc:

PP = n +

t =0

NCFn+1
Trong :
n: Nm m dng tin rng tch ly ca d n <0, nhng sang nm
n+1 th dng tin tch ly s 0.
n
: Dng tin rng tch ly ca d n n thi im n.
NCFt
t =0

NCFn+1 : Tin rng ca d n ti thi im n+1.

nh gi d n bng ch tiu PP
Nguyn tc: PP hon vn PP hon vn yu cu
D n loi tr ln nhau, PP nh nht c chn
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SUT SINH LI NI B - IRR (Internal Rate of Return)

IRR l t sut chit khu m nu t sut ny c s dng
tnh hin gi dng tin rng ca d n s em li NPV bng 0.
n

( Bt Ct )
=0
t
(1
+
r
)
t =0

NPV =

Cch tnh IRR (bng phng php ni suy-phng php sai s)

- Chn r1 lm cho NPV1 > 0
- Chn r2 lm cho NPV2 < 0
Sau , p dng cng thc:

IRR = r1 + (r2 r1 )

NPV1
NPV1 + NPV2
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Quy tc nh gi d n bng ch tiu IRR

a. Cc d n u t c lp nhau
Nguyn tc:
D n no c IRR r (sut sinh li mong mun ca d n) s
c chp nhn.
D n c IRR < 0 s b loi b.
V d:
T l chit khu (ch ph vn): 10%
IRRA = 30%; IRRB = 20%
Da vo IRR, c 2 d n u c chp nhn.

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Quy tc nh gi d n bng ch tiu IRR

b. Cc d n loi tr ln nhau
Trng hp ny thm nh cc d n theo ch tiu IRR c th
dn n cc quyt nh sai lm v u t.
V d:

D an A

D an B

au t ban au

1000$ vao nam 0

1000$ vao nam 0

Li ch

3200 vao nam 5

5200$ vao nam 10

NPV tai r = 8%

-1000+(3200)/(1.08)5 =
1178

-1000+(5200)/(1.08)10
= 1409

IRR

26,2%

17,9%

Neu da vao IRR th chon d an A;

Neu da vao NPV th chon d an B
Nh vay, trong trng hp nay IRR khong ang tin cay.
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U TIN THM NH GIA CH TIU NPV, IRR

D n c kt qu i nghch gia hai ch tiu NPV v IRR, quy
m u t khc nhau v loi tr.

- Tnh dng ngn lu tng thm (d n c NPVln-NPVnh).

- Sau , chng ta tnh IRR ca dng ngn lu ny v a
ra kt lun da vo tnh cht ca IRR.
. Nu IRR > r, th chn d n
. Nu IRR < r, th bc b d n
V d: Dng ngn lu ca 2 d n nh sau (bng), hy tnh NPV,
IRR v xp hng hai d n.
Dong ngan lu
D an T ban au

Nam 1

Nam 2

Nam 3

Nam 4

-70.000

9.250

24.100

29.122

40.000

-60.000

40.000

20.420

10.520

5.000
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U TIN THM NH GIA CH TIU NPV, IRR

VD(tt):
Vi sut chit khu r=12%, ket qua xep hang theo NPV va IRR
nh sau:
D an
NPV
Xep hang IRR Xep hang
X

3,620

14%

2,659

15%

quyt nh chn d n no, chng ta tnh dng ngn lu gia tng

Dong ngan lu gia tang gia hai d an
Nam
0
1
2
3
4
D an (X-Y) -10.000 -30.750
3.680 18.602 35.000
IRR
13%
Ngn lu gia tng c IRR=13% vn > ryu cu =12%, chn d n X.
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U TIN THM NH GIA CH TIU NPV, IRR

Nhn xt chung:
quyt nh chn d n no, chng ta u tin cn c ch tiu
NPV chn la,ch tiu NPV thch hp trong mi trng hp v d
tnh ton, n nh, xc nh c thu nhp rng ti a ca cc d n.
Ch s B/C, IRR khng c u tin trong thm nh d n v trong
mt s trng hp khng cho kt lun chnh xc.

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