XYDNGBOCONGNLU

TICHNHCADN
PhntchLichChiph
ThSPhngThanhBnh

ihcKinhtTP.HCM
KhoaKinhtPhttrin
Email:ptbinh@ifa.edu.vn

Mctiubiging
Cutrcbngbocongnlutichnhtheo
phngphptrctip
Mtsbindngngnlucbn
Nguyntcvquycxydngbocongnlu
Thnhphncabocongnlu
Phngphpxydngbocongnlu
Quytrnhxydngbocongnlutheophng
phptrctip
Phlc

PT TH
TRNG

PT KY THUAT

PT NHAN LC

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

MANPOWER
ANALYSIS,

MARKET
ANALYSIS

BNG THNG S
U T

NGUN VN

K HOCH
U T

DOANH THU

K HOCH
HOT NG

CHI PH

K HOCH
KT THC

BO CO NGN LU TIPV
BO CO NGN LU EPV

KHC

Cutrcbngboco
ngnlu(TIPV)
Bocongnlutichnhcadnlmt
bngmtcckhonthcthu(cash
receipts)vthcchi(cashexpenditures)
cadnquathigian.
Bocongnluthngcutrcthnhhai
phnchnh:(i)Ngnluvov(ii)Ngnlu
ra,vhiucangnluvovngnlura
lngnlurng(netcashflow,NCF).

Cutrcbngboco
ngnlu(TIPV)
Thngbtubngvicxydngbocongn
luquanimtngut(TIPV),risuyraboco
ngnlutheoquanimchshu(EPV):
Ngnlu
TNGUT
(FCF)

Ngnlu
TITR
(CFD)

Ngnlu
CHSHU
(CFE)

Cutrcbngboco
ngnlu(TIPV)
Vngidn,btutnm0,kt
thcnmthanhl(nhocn+1)
Ngnluvo(CIF)
Ngnlura(COF)
Ngnlurng(NCF)trcthu
Thuthunhpdoanhnghip(nuc)
Ngnlurngsauthu

Nm

1.Ngnluvo
Doanhthuthun
AR
Gitrthanhl
2.Ngnlura
utvncnh
Chiphhotng
AP
CB
3.Ngnlurngtrcthu

=(1)(2)

4.Thuthunhpdoanhnghip
5.NgnlurngsauthuTIPV

=(3)(4)

Nm

1.Ngnluvo
Doanhthuthun
Gitrthanhl
2.Ngnlura
utvncnh
Thayivnlung
Chiphhotng
3.Ngnlurngtrcthu

=(1)(2)

4.Thuthunhpdoanhnghip
5.NgnlurngsauthuTIPV

=(3)(4)

Cutrcbngboco
ngnlu(TIPV)
CutrcbocongnluTIPV
cthcthitlpmtcch
chitithntheohngdnca
Harberger&Jenkins(2002)
hocUSAID(2009)

Mubocongn
lutheoUSAID
(2009)

Cutrcbngboco
ngnlu(EPV)
Xydngtbocongnluca
quanimtngutvihaiiu
chnhsau:

Tinvaycxemnhmthngmc
ngnluvo
Tintrn(trgcvli)cxemnh
mthngmcngnlura

Nm

1.NgnlurngsauthuTIPV
2.Tinvay
3.Trn
4.NgnlurngsauthuEPV
Nm

=(1)+(2)(3)
0

1.NgnlurngsauthuTIPV
2.Ngnlutitr
3.NgnlurngsauthuEPV

=(1)+(2)

Nm

1.Ngnluvo
Doanhthuthun
Gitrthanhl
Tinvay
2.Ngnlura
utvncnh
Thayivnlung
Chiphhotng
Trgcvli
3.Ngnlurngtrcthu

=(1)(2)

4.Thuthunhpdoanhnghip
5.NgnlurngsauthuEPV

=(3)(4)

Bindngngnlu

Thc thu tr thc

chi

BindngngnlulbindngcadngNCFsauthu

Giai oan hoat ong

0

Giai oan
au t ban
au

10

11

12

13

14

Bindngngnlu
BindngngnlulbindngcadngNCFsauthu

Thc thu tr thc

chi

Giai oan hoat ong

Giai oan
au t
ban au

10

11

12

13

14

Bindngngnlu
BindngngnlulbindngcadngNCFsauthu

Thc thu tr thc

chi

Giai oan hoat ong

Giai oan
au t
ban au

10

11 12

13

14

Bindngngnlu
Thc thu tr thc
chi

BindngngnlulbindngcadngNCFsauthu
Giai oan hoat ong
0

Giai oan
au t
ban au

10

11

12

13

Nguyntcvquycxy
dngbocongnlu
Nguyntccbn

Thcthu,thcchi

Ngoil

Chiphchicacctisnhinhu

Chiphchmcacckhonchitrongqukh

Tcnggintip

Nguyntcvquycxy
dngbocongnlu
Quyc

Nmbtudn:NM0

Nmktthcdn:NMn(csxcnh?)

Nmthanhl:NMn+1(tyvodn)

Thiimphtsinhlichvchiph:CUIMIGIAI
ON(CUINM)

nvtint:NIT

Khuhao:NGTHNG

Thanhtoncckhonmuabnchu:MTNM

Ccthnhphncabo
congnlu
Thngtinuvoxydngboco
ngnluctchctheotrnhtthi
giancabagiaion:

Giaionut

Giaionhotng

Giaionktthc

Ccthnhphncabo
congnlu
Migiaionphiccckhoch
tngng

Huhtccthngsyucuchocc

khochnyccungcptcc
munkthut,thtrng,nhnlc
vtitr(nhcptrcy).

Ccthnhphncabo
congnlu
Cckhochchyucamtdn:

Khochut

Khochhotng

Khochktthcdn

Cckhochnysctrnhby
chititccphnsau

Phngphpxydngbo
congnlu
Chaiphngphp

Trctip

Gintip

Ktquthmnhtheohaiphngphpphi
nhnhau
Phnlnnidungmnhcschngdn
theophngphptrctip

Xydngbocongnlu
theophngphptrctip
Bc1:Bngthngscadn(*)
Bc2:Khochut
Bc3:Khochhotng
Bc4:Khochktthcdn
Bc5:BocongnluTIPV
Bc6:BocongnluEPV

BNGTHNGS

Ccktqukvng
Ccbinscadnctnghptheo
phnnhmcth(*)

Huhtccconstrongbngthngs
phicnhptay

Nudncnhiuphngnkhcnhau
thphilpbngthngsringchotng
phngn

Bngthngscadn
PhnbitAssumptionsviDecisions?
nghacavicphnbitnytrong
phntchrironhlnglg?

nghacabngthngscgkhc
nhaugiachuynvinphntchv
ngiraquytnh?

Bngthngscadn
ut

Doanhthuhotng

Tisnmi

Cngsut,snlng

Tisnhinhu

Gi,chstng/gimgi

Titr

Chiphhotng

Vnchshu

Trctip

Vnvay,livay

Gintip

Chiphvn

Thngtinkhc(thu,thu

quan,trcp,tgi,lmpht,
thanhl,v.v.)

Bngthngscadn
nvtnhphinhtqun
Dliuctnghptheonm(nh
tinlng,in,nc,v.v.)
ikhi,sutchitkhuvlisut
danhnghaphitnhtheocngthc
Vd:rd,m=rd,r+gP+rd,r*gP

KHOCHUT

Ccktqukvng
Khochuttisnmi
Gitrcctisnhinhu(nuc)
Lchkhuhaotisn
Nhucuvngunvnut
Lchvayvtrn
Ngnlutitr

Khochut
Kthpthngtintccphntch

thtrngvphntchkthut
thitlpmtkhochchititcho
cckhonchitiuvnkvng
hngnmtrongsutgiaion
utcadn.

Khochut
Gmhaiphn:

Chitiumuasm(thcchi)cctisnmi
cadnvchiphchicacctisn
hinhumdnssdng
Cckhacnhtitrdn

Cthccckhochkhcnhauchocc
quym/vtrkhcnhau(phngnkhc
nhau)

Khochut
tai,mtbng
Chiphxydng
Chiphmymc,thitb
Chiphtvnthitk
Chiphqunldn
Dphngph
Chiphkhc
Xlccloithurasao?

Nn phn theo nhm

hng ha/dch v
ngoi thng v phi
ngoi thng; v mi
hng mc nn chia
nh theo cc thnh
phn ca n (nu c
th)

Ngun:USAID,2009,pp.70

Ngun:USAID,2009,pp.70

Khochut
Cnphnbitgiachiphchiv

chiphchmcamttisnkhilpk
hochut.

Chiphchicavicsdngmttisn
chomtdncthllichmtidoti
snskhngcsdngchomtmc
chttnhtkhc.

Khochut

Gitrcamttisncxemlchiph
chmnutisnkhngcmtmcch
sdngnokhc.Loitisnnhvyc
chiphchibngkhng.

Chiphchicacctisnhinhuthng
cavonm0trongngnludn.
nhgivxlgitrcctisnhinhu
nhthno?

Khochut
Nm
Nm

Ngnlura

tai

tai

Nhxng

Nhxng

Thitb

Thitb

Khc

Khc

Khochut
Xcnhnguntitrchocckhonchitiu
utktrn

Vnchshu

Vaytrongnc

Vayncngoi(nuc)

Ngunnocavongnluvotyvo
quanimthmnh

Xltai
tsnc(xemnhtisnhinhu)

Theogithtrngtithiimut

Chiphvnutbanu(nm0)

Khngtnhkhuhao

Gitrthanhlbnggitrutbanuc
iuchnhlmpht
Khngphnbvogivn(chiphhotng
trongbocothunhp)

Xltai
tdonhncgiao

Chiphnbgiiphngmtbng,ti
nhc(hocchiphgiaotkhc)
cxemnhchiphvnut

Phnbchiphnynhthno?

Xltai
tthu

Trmtln:Xemnhchiphvnut(ti
nmthanhtontinthu)trongboco
ngnlu(vphnbnhthno?)
Trhngnm:Xemnhchiphhotng
hngnmtrongbocongnlu(vphn
bnhthno?)

Lchkhuhao
Mcch:

Tnhchiphkhuhaohngnma
vobngBocothunhp,tc
nhhngnngnlurngcadn
thngqualchnthucakhuhao
TnhgitrthanhlvGITRTHANH
Llmthngmccangnluvo

Lchkhuhao
Lu:

Khuhaokhngphilmthngmccabo
congnlu,nhngcnhhngnngn
lurngcadnthngqualchnthu
Nuchiphvnutccnmkhcnhauth
nnlpcclchkhuhaoring
Btutnhkhuhaokhino?
Tnhkhuhaotrncschiphutcha
baogmccloithunhtrndoanhs(*)

Lchkhuhao
Lu:

Nuclmphtthgitrthanhlsctnh
bnggitrcnlitheossch(*)ciu
chnhchslmphttrongnc(nmthanhl
sovinmut)
Nudncutcctisnvhnhth
khuhaoctnhbnggitrut/vngi
dn(khngcgitrthanhl)
Snmkhuhaothngphituntheoquy
nhcanhnc

Lchkhuhao
Nm
Gitrtisnuk
Khuhaotrongk
Khuhaotchly
Gitrtisncuik

Lchkhuhao
Nm

Gitrtisnuk
Khuhaotrongk

Nm

n+1

Ngnluvo

Gitrthanhl

Khuhaotchly
Gitrtisncuik

iuchnh
lmpht

Lchkhuhao
Nm

Bocothunhp

Gitrtisnuk
Khuhaotrongk
Khuhaotchly
Gitrtisncuik

Nm

..

NCFtrcthu
Thu
NCFsauthu
NPV

Lchvayvtrn
Mcch:

TnhliphtsinhavoBocothu
nhpnhmxcnhgitrlchnthuca
livay
TnhNGNLUTITR,tsuyra
NCFcadntheoquanimchshu
(EPV)
NCFEPV=NCFTIPV+Ngnlutitr

Lchvayvtrn
Cccphngthchaysau:

Trvngcu,khngnhn

Trvngcu,cnhn

Trvngcvliu,khngnhn

Trvngcvliu,cnhn

Chnhnvngc

Snvaydngtnhstinphitrn
hngnmlsnukcakbtu
trn

Lchvayvtrn
Nm
(1)Nuk

(2)Liphtsinhtrongk
(3)Trn

thngsdnghmPMT

Trvngc

thngsdnghmPPMT

Trli

thngsdnghmIPMT

(4)Ncuik

=(1)+(2)(3)

Lchvayvtrn
Lu:

Livaydanhngha
Lachnngsnukcathiim
btutrn(*)
Ncuiktithiimktthchpng
vayvnphibng0
Nucvayngoitphilpbngring
bngngoit,riisangVNDtheotgi
danhnghahinhnh

Lchvayvtrn
Lu:

Theophngthctrvngcvliu
thkhonnphitrhngnmphitnh
theocngthcPMT(PPMTvIPMT)
BnchtcacngthcPMTldatrn
cngthctnhhingidngtinuhu
hn(xembiginggitrtinttheothi
gian)

Lchvayvtrn
Gisgi:

A=stinphitrhngnmtheophngthc
vngcvliu
PV=Snukbtuthiimtrn
AFrn=Thaschitkhucadngtinu
huhnvinnmtrnvlisutr

Tac:

PV
A=
AFrn

(1 + r ) 1
AF =
r (1 + r ) n
n
r

Lchvayvtrn
Nm

Bocothunhp

(1)Nuk
(2)Liphtsinhtrongk
(3)Trn
Trvngc
Trli
(4)Ncuik

Nm

..

NCFtrcthu
Thu
NCFsauthu
NPV

Lchvayvtrn
Nm

Ngnlutitr

(1)Nuk
(2)Liphtsinhtrongk
(3)Trn
Trvngc
Trli
(4)Ncuik

Nm
NCFTIPV
Ngnlutitr
NCFEPV

..

Lchvayvtrn
Nm
(1)Nuk

Lchnthu

(2)Liphtsinhtrongk
(3)Trn
Trvngc

PV(Lchnthu)

Trli
(4)Ncuik

TIPVvsAEPV

Lchvayvtrn
Nm
(1)Nuk
(2)Liphtsinhtrongk
(3)Trn
Trvngc
Trli
(4)Ncuik

Nm

..

EBIT
Livay
EBT
Thu

NCF

Ngnlutitr
Nm

(1)Tinvay
(2)Trn
(3)Ngnlutitr

(3)=(1)(2)

KHOCHHOTNG

Ccktqukvng
Doanhthuhotng
Chiphhotng

Trctip

Gintip

Vnlung
Bocothunhpdtr

Khochhotng
cphttrintrncsccdliutcc
munkthut,thtrng,vnhnlc
Cchngmcchiphhotngcngnn
chiatheonhmhngha/dchvngoi
thngvphingoithng
Mikhonchinncchiatheoccthnh
phncan(nucth)

Ngun:USAID,2009,pp.75

Doanhthuhotng
Cngsuthotng
Snlngsnxut
Snlngtnkho(nuc)
Snlngtiuth
Gibnnv
Chstng/gimgivchslmpht
Lu:Chldoanhthuthun

Doanhthuhotng
Mcch:

Doanhthuthuntrongngnluvo

Doanhthuthuntrongbocothunhp

Csxcnhcckhonphithu(%)

Cstnhmtschiphhotng(%)

Cnphnbitdoanhthuvithcthu

CchuynhonthuVATkhng?

Ngun:USAID,2009,pp.74

Chiphhotng
Chiphhotngtrctip

Nhncngtrctip
Nguynliutrctip
Chiphsnxutchung

Lu:Hythntrngvihngmckhuhao(v

phnbccchiphutbanu)

Chiphhotnggintip

Chiphqunl(xlkhuhao?)
Chiphbnhng

Chiphhotng
Mcch:

Lmthngmctrongngnlura

Lcstnhgivnhngbn(nudnc
tnkho)/hocchiphtrctiptrongboco
thunhp

Csxcnhcckhonphitr(%)

Lu:

Cnphnbitkhonchivthcchi
Xlccloithurasao?

Ngun:USAID,2009,pp.76

Chiphhotng
Givnhngbn

Khidnctnkhothnhphmthcn
xcnhgivnhngbn(COGS)vych
lmthngmctrongbocothunhp

COGS=snlngtiuthXgithnh
Githnhnmt=tngchiphtrctipnmt
(kckhuhao)/snlngsnxutnmt
PhngphptnhgithnhginhlFIFO

Bocothunhp
Dngxcnhthuthunhpdkinphinp
cadn
Chngmckhuhao/phnbchiphut
KhcnhaugiaquanimTIPV&AEPV(?)
Khngtnhthayivnlung
Thngkhngquantmgitrthanhl(?)
Xlchiphchivchiphchmnhthno?
DngctnhNCFtheophngphpgintip

Bocothunhp
Nm
Tngdoanhthu
()Chiphhotngtrctip(*)
()Chiphqunl&bnhng
EBIT
()Trlivay
EBT
ThuTNDN
Thunhprng

Bocothunhp
Nm
Tngdoanhthu
()Chiphhotngtrctip(chakkhuhao)
Linhungp
()Chiphqunl&bnhng
EBITDA
()Khuhao
EBIT
()Trlivay
EBT
ThuTNDN
Thunhprng

Bocothunhp
Nm
Tngdoanhthu
()Chiphhotngtrctip(*)
()Chiphqunl&bnhng

n
Nm
NCFtrcthu

EBIT

ThuTNDN

()Trlivay

NCFsauthu

EBT
ThuTNDN
Thunhprng

..

Vnlung
Vnlung=TisnngnhnNngn
hn,thngbaogm:

Tisnngnhnthnggm:Tinmt
vchngkhon;cckhonphithu;tn
kho;vccchiphtrtrc.
Nngnhnthnggm:Cckhonphi
tr;vcckhonnnhn.

Vnlung
Cckhonphithu(AR)thngl%ca
doanhthu
Cckhonphitr(AP)thngl%catng
chiphhocchiphcaccnhplngchnh
Cnitinmt(CB)thngl%cachi
ph,doanhthu,hocchiphcaccnhp
lngchnh

Vnlung
Nhucuvnlungcxcnhdatrncc
cssauy:

Ccdntngtangthchin

Tiuchun/Trungbnhcangnh

Phinhtqunviccchunmchotngcangnh

Nucao/thphnthcncnhnggiitrnhhp
l(nhtlccdncng)

Vnlung
Tng/gimvnlungcxemnh
ngnlura/vo,thmchkhichngvn
ngaytrongdn
Nutngvnlung,thdnkhngth
dngtinchoccutkhc.Chnhv
thtngvnlungcxemnhkhon
chiphchicadn
Vnlungchonlikhidnkt
thc,vcxemnhngnlavo

Vnlung
Quyc(theophngphptrctip)

ARt=ARt1ARt

APt=APt1APt

CBt=CBtCBt1

ARtxemnhmthngmcngnluvo

APtxemnhmthngmcngnlura

CBtxemnhmthngmcngnlura

Vnlung
Nm
Nm

AR

AR0

AR1

AP

AP0

AP1

CB

CB0

CB1

AR

=AR0AR1

AP

=AP0AP1

CB

=CB1CB0

n+1

Ngnluvo
AR

Ngnlura

AP
CB

..

Vnlung
Nm

AR

180

230

270

AP

120

160

210

CB

100

180

200

AR

180

50

40

270

AP

120

40

50

210

CB

100

80

20

200

Vnlung

Mtcchxlkhc(pdngkh
:

Bc1:Tnhnhucuvnlung

Bc2:Tnhthayivnlung

Bc3:avongnlura

Nm

Ti sn lu ng

T l

Phai thu t khach

hang

3.20%

Tra trc cho nh cung cp

Cac khoan
phai thu khac

2.25%
2.15%

Cng cu dung
cu

2.75%

Hang
mua tn
kho

2.50%

Tam
ng

1.25%

Chi phi tr trc

2.25%

N ngn hn

Phai tr khach
hang

2.25%

Tam
ng cua
khach
hang

1.15%

Thu phai tr Nh nc
Phai tr cng nhn vin

3.25%

Cac khoan
phai tr khac

4.25%

2.25%

Vn
lu ng
rong

Thay i vn
lu ng
rong

Vnlung
Nuvnlungtngln>0,tngu
tvn(thcchi)
Nuvnlunggimxung<0,gim
utvn(thcthu)
ngha:

Cvaytrgipdnvnhnhlintc,tri
chy(gingbnhxngcontrongccngc
ttrong)
tnhcckhonTHCTHUvTHCCHI

KHOCHKTTHCDN

Gitrthanhl
Tisaophickhochktthcdn?
Dovngidnkhngtrngvivngi
canhiutisnsdngtrongdn
Dokhnngphntchkhngthmrngqu
xatrongtnglai,nn
=>Gitrthanhlcatisnphicc
tnhavongnludn.

Gitrthanhl
Nmthanhlthngcquycl
nmsaukhidndnghotng

Nnphnloigitrthanhltheocc

loikhcnhaunhtai,nhxng,
thitb,xec,

Xcnhgitrthanhlnhthno?

BOCONGNLU

Nm

1.Ngnluvo

2.Ngnlura

3.Ngnlurngtrcthu

=(1)(2)

4.
5.NgnlurngsauthuTIPV

=(3)(4)

Nm

1.Ngnluvo

2.Ngnlura

3.Ngnlurngtrcthu

=(1)(2)

4.
5.NgnlurngsauthuTIPV

=(3)(4)

Nm

1.NgnlurngsauthuTIPV
2.
3.
4.NgnlurngsauthuEPV
Nm

=(1)+(2)(3)
0

1.NgnlurngsauthuTIPV
2.
3.NgnlurngsauthuEPV

=(1)+(2)

Nm

1.Ngnluvo

2.Ngnlura

3.Ngnlurngtrcthu

=(1)(2)

4.
5.NgnlurngsauthuEPV

=(3)(4)

Quytrnhxydngboco
ngnlu?

PHLC
Cutrcbocongnlutichnh
theophngphpgintip

QuytrnhthchintrnExcel
clngdoanhthuhotngvchi
phhotng

Ccvnkhc

Cutrcbocongnlu
theophngphpgintip
Ngnluthotngkinhdoanh

Linhunrng(trcthuhocsauthu)
iuchnhcckhonthuchikhngbngtin
mt(vdkhuhao)
iuchnhcckhonthayivnlung

Ngnluthotngut
Ngnluthotngtichnh(quanimEPV)

Quytrnhthchintrn
Excel
Bngthngs
Xcnhtngmcut
Lpkhochut
Xcnhnhucuvn
Khochkhuhao
Khochvnlung
Doanhthuhotng
Chiphhotng

Boco
thunhp

Boco
ngnlu

Quytrnhthchintrn
Excel
Nm
Thunhprngsauthu
(+)Livay
(+)Khuhao/Ccphnbkhc
(+)Thayicckhonphithu
(+)Gitrthanhl
()utvncnh
()Thayicckhonphitr
()Thayikhoncnitinmt
()Thayicckhontnkho
Ngnlurngsauthu(TIPV)

Quytrnhthchintrn
Excel
Nm
Thunhprngsauthu
(+)Livay
(+)Khuhao/Ccphnbkhc
(+)Gitrthanhl
()utvncnh
()Thayivnlung
Ngnlurngsauthu(TIPV)

Quytrnhthchintrn
Excel
Nm
Thunhprngsauthu
(+)Livay
(+)Khuhao/Ccphnbkhc
(+)Gitrthanhl
()Thayivnlung
()utvncnh
(+)Vnvay
()Trgcvli
Ngnlurngsauthu(EPV)

BitpExcel
ThchnhdnTRF

Thchnh1:Xydngbocongnlu
tichnh(TIPVvEPV)
Thchnh2:Tnhcctiuchnhgi
hiuqutichnhdn(biging4)
Thchnh3:Xydngbocongnlu
kinhtvtnhtoncctiuchnhnhgi
hiuqukinhtdn(biging6>9)