Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Week 8
Foreign Exchange Markets The structure and
operation
FX Markets:
Types:
o Floating exchange rate (free float) regime is where the
exchange rate is determined by supply and demand factors in the FX
markets NO CENTRAL BANK INTERVENTION
o Managed Float: Is where the exchange rate is held within a defined
band relative to other currency.
o Crawling peg: is where the exchange rate is allowed to appreciate in
controlled steps over time.
o Pegged exchange rate: is where domestic currency is locked into a
specified multiple of another currency such as the USD.
Brokers transact almost exclusively with FX dealers; they obtain the best
prices in global FX markets matching FX dealers buy and sell orders for a
fee. (like share brokers)
Central Banks:
Exporters receive foreign currency for the sale of their goods and services.
Exporters use the FX market to sell foreign currency and buy AUD
Importers use the FX market to buy foreign currency (sell AUD) for
purchasing imports.
Commercial bank foreign borrowings are usually converted into the home
currency
o Payments of interest and principal need to be made in the
denominated currency of the loan.
Forward transactions;
o Have maturity date more than two days after FX contract is entered
into.
A TWO WAY quotation indicates the dealers buy (bid) and sell (offer) price.
>>>Note that a dealer quoting both bid and offer prices is a price-maker.
Transposing spot-quotations:
o If given the quotation above, to find the AUD/EUR quotation simply;
1) Reverse the bid and offer prices (1.6765-1.6755)
2) Take the inverse (divide both numbers into 1):
1.00/1.6765 and 1.00/1.6755
Gives AUD/EUR0.59650.5968
Hence, this dealer will BUY 1AUD for 0.5965EUR and SELL
1AUD for 0.5968EUR
Calculating cross-rates
o Since all currencies are quoted against the USD (either directly with
USD as base or indirectly where USD is the terms currency and the
other is the base).
When FX transactions occur between two currencies that are
not USD, the cross-rate needs to be calculated.
B2 S2
Buy2/ Sell1* = X
Sell2 / Buy1* = Y
Answer 1-2 = X-Y
EUR/JPY 166.38-67
GBP/NZD2.7204-30
Buy1 x Buy2 = X
Sell1 x Sell2 = Y
Answer 1-2 = X-Y
B1 S1
S2 B2
AUD/GBP0.468488
Buy1/ Sell2 = X
Sell1 / Buy2 = Y
Answer 1-2 = X-Y
The forward exchange rate varies from the spot rate owing to the interest
rate parity
o This is the principle that exchange rates will adjust to reflect interest
rate differentials between countries.
The forward exchange rates are quoted as forward points, either above or
below the spot rate.
o Forward points represent the forward exchange rate variation to a
spot rate base.
If the forward points are rising, add them to the spot rate
(base currency is at a forward premium, interest rate of the
base currency is lower)
If the forward points are falling, subtract them from the spot
rate (base currency is at a forward discount interest rate of
the base currency is higher)
An example(1):
Given AUD/USD (spot) 0.92300.9240 And six-month forward points 0.0032
0.0027
Since the forward points are falling, ssubtract them from the spot rate to obtain
the six-month forward rate of: 0.91980.9213
An example(2):
A company approaches a FX dealer for a forward quote on the USD/CHF with a
three-month (90-day) delivery. The spot rate is USD/CHF1.1560. The dealer
needs to calculate the forward points. Assume the three-month USD interest
rate is 3.00% per annum and the three-month euroSwiss franc interest rate is
4.00% per annum:
The three-month forward rate is USD/CHF1.1589. The points are added to the
spot rate as the interest rate of the base currency is lower
Real-world complications:
Different interest rate year conventions may involve converting a 360day basis to a 365-day basis or vice-versa
An example(1):
A company approaches an FX dealer for a forward quote on the USD/CHF with a
three-month (90-day) delivery. The spot rate is USD/CHF1.1555-60. The
dealer needs to calculate the forward points. Assume the three-month USD bid
and offer interest rates are 3.00% and 3.30% p.a. and the three-month
euroSwiss franc interest rates are 3.70% and 4.00% per annum, respectively.
The forward points are rising so they will be added to the spot rate. Therefore, the
three-month forward exchange rate will be USD/CHF1.1566-89
The euro has become a hard currency like the USD, JPY and GBP (it is
generally accepted in international trade transactions)
Week 8 CONT
Factors that influence the Exchange Rate:
1/3 FX markets and equilibrium Exchange Rate
(floating exchange rate):
Hence it can be seen that the Supply and Demand of AUD operates
under a supply and demand curve.
Inflation rates influence the price (and hence demand) of foreign goods.
o Since the demand for imported goods changes, so does the demand
for foreign currency used to buy those goods.
Ther
e could also
be an
increase in
foreign
investment in
Australia,
increasing
demand for
AUD and thus
appreciating
AUD to a
small extent