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Aarhus University, Business & Social Sciences

Msc Thesis in Logistics & Supply Chain Management

HOW DO FAST MOVING CONSUMER GOODS COMPANIES

MANAGE SUPPLY CHAIN RISKS IN THEIR ESTABLISHED
EXCHANGES?
MARCH 2014

STUDENT: GEORGIOS NTALLAS

EKSAMENSNR: 414462
SUPERVISOR: CHRIS ELLEGAARD

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PREFACE

his Master Thesis project, which lies in front of you, is the efforts of a five
month period, to review, study and present the major risks that FMCG
companies face in their established exchanges and how do they handle them.
As the master thesis project is the last part of my master program, I honestly feel
that I could not make it without the assistance of several people that I need to thank.
First of all, I would like to sincerely thank Mr. Chris Ellegaard, my supervisor teacher,
who was there for me, by providing his valuable assistance and guidance during this
project.
Moreover, I would like to thank My Market for their assistance in reviewing and
examining the case study and the help that their risk management team offered to
me. Also I would like to thank Mr. Alexandropoulos and Mr. Konstantinidis, as well as
their companies Athenian Brewery and Honey-Center, who offered me the
opportunity to conduct interviews with them, as I know that the free time on their
schedule is limited.
Finally I would like to thank my parents who were always there for me, supporting
me to strive for the best and reinforce me financially, so I could work unobstructed,
in order to reach my goal.

Georgios Ntallas

Athens, February 2014

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SUMMARY
This Master Thesis project aims to answer two basic questions concerning supply
chain risks in FMCG companies:

What are the most significant risks that FMCG companies have to tackle
down?
What action plans are implemented by FMCG companies in order to mitigate
those significant supply chain risks?

A thorough literature review was necessary in order to understand better important

concepts such as supply chain, supply chain management, risk management and
supply chain risk management and be available to answer the questions. One of the
most important aspects of the literature is the supply chain risk management
process. According to Manuj et al (2008) the SCRM process can be divided in five
steps: Risk identification, Risk Assessment and Evaluation, Selection of appropriate
risk management, Implementation of supply chain risk management strategy and
Mitigation of supply chain risks. Those steps are extremely important for the
companies as they help them to be prepared to mitigate risks with alternative action
plans. In order to have a common tool for ranking the risks according to their
significance, impact to the company and probabilities of occurring, a risk matrix was
created.
This risk matrix is used as ranking tool for the two interviews with experts of the
FMCG industry in Greece, in order to have a common scale of measurement for the
risks. The most important risks for those companies are presented, as well as their
evaluation and companys mitigation strategy. Additionally further possible actions
are proposed. Furthermore a case study of a limited mitigation plan is presented,
concerning a Greek super market and one of their suppliers. The purpose of the case
study is to show how did the retailer identify and assess their potential risks and how
did they plot their action plan and what further actions should they have done to
limit the risks.
To conclude with, the posed questions are answered in accordance with the given
information through the interviews and the case study.

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Table of Contents
PAGE
Preface: .. 2
Summary: . 3
Table of Contents: .. 4
Abbreviations: .. 7
Figure Table: .. 7

CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION 8
1.1 BACKGROUND .. 8
1.2 RESEARCH PROBLEM 9
1.3 RESEARCH OBJECTIVES .. 9
1.3.1 RESEARCH QUESTIONS 9
1.3.2 DELIMITATION .. 10

1.4 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY . 10

1.4.1 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY . 10
1.4.2 RESEARCH MODEL & OUTLINE .. 11

CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW ... 13

2.1 SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT . 13
2.1.1 SUPPLY CHAIN . 13
2.1.2 SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT 13
2.1.3 FMCG SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT . 15

2.2 RISK .. 16
2.2.1 RISK MANAGEMENT . 17
2.2.2 SUPPLY CHAIN RISK MANAGEMENT . 17

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2.2.3 FMCG SUPPLY CHAIN RISK MANAGEMENT . 18

CHAPTER 3: SCRM PROCESS 19

3.1 SCRM PROCESS . 19
3.2 RISK IDENTIFICATION 20
3.3 RISK ASSESMENT & EVALUATION ... 22
3.4 RISK MITIGATION STRATEGIES,SELECTION & IMPLEMENTATION 26

CHAPTER 4: EMPIRICAL DATA ... 30

4.1 FOCUS & GOALS .. 30
4.1.1 INTERVIEW FOCUS &GOALS .. 30
4.1.2 CASE STUDY FOCUS & GOALS 30

4.2 STRUCTURE & PROCEDURE . 31

4.2.1 INTERVIEW STRUCTURE & PROCEDURE . 31
4.2.2 CASE STUDY STRUCTURE & PROCEDURE .. 32

4.3 INTERVIEW PARTNERS 32

4.3.1 INTERVIEW EXPERTS 32
4.3.2 CASE STUDY FIRM PARTNERS 33

CHAPTER 5: EMPIRICAL STUDY ANALYSIS .... 34

5.1 STERGIOU S.A. MY MARKET CASE STUDY . 34
5.1.1 RISK IDENTIFICATION .. 35
5.1.2 RISK ASSESSMENT AND EVALUATION . 36
5.1.3 RISK MITIGATION STRATEGIES, SELECTION &
IMPLEMENTATION 38

5.2 INTERVIEWS QUESTIONNAIRE .. 39

5.2.1 RISK IDENTIFICATION .. 39

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5.2.2 RISK ASSESSMENT AND EVALUATION . 41

5.2.3 RISK MITIGATION STRATEGIES: SELECTION &
IMPLEMENTATION 45

CHAPTER 6: CONSLUSIONS... 48
CHAPTER 7: FUTURE RESEARCH 50
REFERENCES .. 51
APPENDICES .. 53

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ABBREVIATIONS
FMCG: Fast Moving Consumer Goods
SCM: Supply Chain Management
SCRM: Supply Chain Risk Management

FIGURE INDEX
FIGURE 2.1: INTERGRATING AND MANAGING BUSINESS PROCESSES ACROSS THE SUPPLY CHAIN
FIGURE 2.2: SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT FRAMEWORK: ELEMENTS & KEY DECISIONS
FIGURE 2.3: TYPE OF RISKS, SOURCES AND DESCRIPTION
FIGURE 2.4: SUPPLY CHAIN RISKS
FIGURE 3.1: RISK IN THE EXTENDED SUPPLY CHAIN
FIGURE 3.2: RISK IDENTIFICATION SUMMARY
FIGURE 3.3: CREATING RISK PROFILES
FIGURE 3.4: TYPE OF LOSSES & CONSEQUENCES
FIGURE 3.5: RISK ASSESSMENT & EVALUATION
FIGURE 3.6: RISK RANKING
FIGURE 3.7: SUPPLY CHAIN TYPES AND RISK MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES
FIGURE 5.1: MY MARKET RISKS
FIGURE 5.2: RISK ASSESMENT & EVALUATION
FIGURE 5.3: ATHENIAN BREWERYS RISK IDENTIFICATION
FIGURE 5.4: HONEY-CENTER RISK IDENTIFICATION
FIGURE 5.5: RISK ASSESMENT & EVALUATION:
FIGURE 5.6: RISK ASSESMENT & EVALUATION

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CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION

his chapter aims to describe and analyze the research problem of this project,
define the research method that is going to be implied and set the objectives
that will lead to the formation of the research questions.

1.1 BACKGROUND
Nowadays companies are searching, more than ever before, for any detail that is
going to give them an advantage over their competitors. By ameliorating their supply
chain they have the opportunity to gain that advantage, as they obtain
manufacturing flexibility, they decrease the cost of the products and they offer their
products to the costumers faster and safer.
According to Mentzer et al (2001) supply chain is defined as a set of three or more
entities (organizations or individuals) directly involved in the upstream and
downstream flows of products, services, finances, and/or information from a source
to a customer. To achieve excellence in the supply chain though, is not so easy.
Companies have to tackle down major risks and disruptions in the supply chain such
as national law restrictions, terrorism actions, weather, accidents etc. Obviously
those risks can increase losses for the companies and that is why a supply chain risk
management plan is required.
In accordance with Harland et al (2003) risk is definedas a chance of danger,
damage, loss, injury or any other undesired consequences.
Furthermore according to Mitchell (1995) risk contains different types of loss and
the risk of any particular type of loss is a combination of the probability of that loss P
and the significance of that loss to the individual or organization I , Risk n = - P (Loss
n) x I (Loss n) . Moreover, according to Manuj et al (2008) companies have to follow
some steps to manage successfully any supply chain risks. Those steps are:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

Risk identification
Risk assessment and evaluation
Selection of appropriate risk management
Implementation of supply chain risk management strategy
Mitigation of supply chain risks

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1.2 RESEARCH PROBLEM

Taking into consideration that FMCG companies are related with goods, such as soft
drinks, grocery and dairy products that are subject to expiration dates and small
inventories, it is obvious that those companies have to deploy management
strategies limiting supply chain risks and uncertainty, preventing if it is possible any
disruptions and assure constant and continuous flow of goods.
Thereafter, in this thesis project is going to be discussed how FMCG companies take
all the necessary management measures to tackle down any risks that might occur in
their established exchanges.

1.3 RESEARCH OBJECTIVES

This research Thesis aims to broaden the knowledge on how to identify and manage
supply chain risks in the established exchanges of FMCG companies. More
specifically the objectives of this Thesis are:

To identify supply chain risks that have to do with FMCG established

exchanges.
To classify those risks according to their importance for FMCG companies and
point out the most significant.
Suggestions for actions that could take place in order to avoid or mitigate
supply chain risks

1.3.1 RESEARCH QUESTIONS

Taking into consideration the above mentioned objectives the research questions
are formed as follow:

What are the most significant risks that Greek FMCG companies have to
tackle down?
What action plans are implemented by Greek FMCG companies in order to
mitigate those significant supply chain risks?

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1.3.2. DELIMITATIONS

To have a better understanding of how FMCG companies choose their supply chain
risk management strategy, it would be ideal to study and have a set of interviews
with different kind of companies that collaborate and have partnerships with them.
Although that this would be extremely helpful is difficult to be achieved, due to the
page restriction of this Thesis project and the time constraint. Thus, I am going to
focus on FMCG companies exclusively.
Moreover, the same weight is going to be given, in both external and internal supply
chain risks as both of them can affect the supply chain causing serious
consequences.
The most important issue during this research project is the difficulties that might
occur while searching for conducting the interviews with supply chain managers.
Many of them do not have time to help or they are simply unwilling to provide their
knowledge. That might lead to small sample making it hard to draw safe conclusions.
Finally, I am going to focus more in qualitative analysis than in quantitative, because
the data that are going to be extracted from the questionnaire are going to be
suggestions for management actions or an already followed risk management plan.

1.4 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

1.4.1 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

For this thesis I am going to use qualitative research as I believe that by the time that
this project has to do with management actions and decisions, it makes it easier to
understand managements behavior. There is a slight possibility of using quantitative
research too, only if the outcome of the interviews requires it (ex. Company losses
by wrong actions and a comparison between them).
The methodology consists of Literature and Empirical research.
For the literature research I am going to gather information from the internet
(scientific articles and journals), the school library and the material that was
provided to us during our studies. The literature research will help me to understand
better terms and methods concerning supply chain risk management(especially in

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the FMCG industry) and what is the procedure that should been followed by the
companies in order to achieve better results.
As it has to do with the empirical research, it is going to be based on interviews and
questionnaires answered by managers of FMCG companies, in order to examine and
understand what actions they have taken to tackle down any risks or disruptions;
and how those actions are correlated with the theory research that was conducted
before. There will be also a case study of a disruption that a Major Greek
supermarket had faced a year ago. In order to rank and prioritize the risks I have
created a risk matrix that is going to be used during the empirical research.

1.4.2 RESEARCH MODEL & OUTLINE

This Msc Thesis consists of seven chapters in total. The first one is the introduction
chapter that includes some background information, the research objectives,
questions and the research methodology and outline. The second chapter refers to
the literature review and more specifically is explaining terms such as supply chain,
supply chain management, food supply chain, risk management, etc. . The third
chapter analyses the supply chain risk management process in order to have a better
understanding on how companies should act prior to a problem. The two following
chapters (4, 5) consist of the empirical data,( in this particular case are interviews
from food industry experts) and the outcome and analysis of these data. The final
chapters (6,7) are the conclusion chapter of this thesis project, and the chapter for
future recommendations.

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CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW

n this chapter, terms such as supply chain, supply chain management (SCM), Risk
management, etc., are going to be explained and discussed. Furthermore an
explanation of these terms concerning the FMCG industry is necessary as the
needs might be slightly different.

2.1 SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT

The following sub-chapters will focus in defining the terms of supply chain, supply
chain management and FMCG supply chain management as it is extremely important
for the reader to be acquainted with those terms before proceeding with the
analysis of this thesis project.

2.1.1 SUPPLY CHAIN

There are many definitions of the supply chain in the literature that are focusing on
different attributes. Nevertheless a precise definition for the supply chain is been
expressed by Mentzer et al (2001) after taking under consideration various
definitions. According to Mentzer et al (2001) supply chain is defined as a set of
three or more entities (organizations or individuals) directly involved in the upstream
and downstream flows of products, services, finances, and/or information from a
source to a customer.
2.1.2 SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT

As it is stated by Mentzer et al (2001) there are many different definitions of SCM

that can be classified on three categories: implementation of a management
philosophy, management philosophy and a set of management processes. Despite it
is also stated that a single definition is not adopted yet, they give the following
definition,SCM is defined as the systemic, strategic coordination of the traditional
business functions and the tactics across these business functions within a particular
company and across businesses within the supply chain for the purposes of
improving the long-term performance of the individual companies and the supply
chain as a whole..

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Croxton, Garcia-Dastugue and Lambert(2001) recommend the definition that is

developed and used from the Global Supply Chain forum and defines that SCM is
the integration of key business processes from end user through original suppliers
that provides products, services and information that add value for customers and
other stakeholders. The following figure shows which key business processes have to
be implemented by SCM.
FIGURE 2.1:

INTERGRATING AND MANAGING BUSINESS PROCESSES ACROSS THE SUPPLY CHAIN

Source: Lambert and Cooper (2000)

According to Croxton, Garcia-Dastugue and Lambert (2001) management of all firms

should take into account this eight key business processes, although the fact that the
importance of each process and activity may differ.
Moreover, supply chains are complicated and they usually consist of many firms. On
the other hand, a firm could possibly be member on many supply chains. Taking into
consideration the above mentioned, it is of paramount importance that the
organizations select wisely which of those supply chains and which key processes
have to be managed.
In accordance with Lambert and Cooper (2000), the SCM framework consists of the
three following elements: Supply Chain Network Structure, Supply chain Business
Processes and Supply Chain Management Components.
FIGURE 2.2:

SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT FRAMEWORK: ELEMENTS & KEY DECISIONS

Source: Lambert and Cooper (2000)

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Furthermore, in order to make supply chains more manageable, Lambert and

Cooper (2000) suggest distinguishing firms between primary and supporting
members. Thereafter a primary member is defined as all those autonomous
companies or strategic business units who carry out value-adding activities
(operational and or managerial) in the business processes designed to produce a
specific output for a particular customer or market. and a supporting as companies
that simply provide resources, knowledge, utilities, or assets for the primary
members of the supply chain. That does not mean though, that a company that is a
primary member in one supply chain cannot be a supporting member in another
supply member.
Finally, Supply Chain Management Components is the last element of the
Framework. According to Lambert and Cooper (2000) nine management
components have been identified and it is clear that by adding more components or
by increasing the contribution of every component to the management, the level of
integration of the business process link can be increased. Those nine components
are: planning and control, work structure, organization structure, product flow
facility structure, information flow facility structure, management methods, power
and leadership structure, risk and reward structure, and culture and attitude.
2.1.3 FMCG SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT

The major difference that is found in FMCG supply chain management has to do with
the food supply chain management subcategory. According to Land and Ding (2008)
there are characteristics that distinguish Food supply chain from supply chain. Those
characteristics are the following:

Shelf life constraints for raw materials and final products that affect the
product quality through the supply chain.
Production seasonality
Many of the products require refrigeration transport and storage means
Need for portion traceability of work in process because of quality and
environmental claims and product responsibility.
Variable process yields in quantity and quality due to biological variations,
seasonality, and random factors connected with weather, pests, and other
biological hazards.

Moreover, there are some further characteristics such as: long production times,
small or zero inventories due to expirations dates and possible delays due to quality
tests. According to Levinson (2009) the food supply chain typically starts on farms
and involves many different types of facilities including processors, packers,
distributors, transporters and retail stores- before finally reaching the consumer.

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2.2 RISK
According to Mitchell (1995), risk concept contains different types of losses and the
risk of any particular type of loss is a combination of the probability of that loss P
(lossn) and the significance of that loss to the individual or organization, I (loss n).
Therefore:

Riskn = P (lossn) x I(lossn)

Moreover, Harland et al (2003) defines risk aschance of danger, damage, loss, injury
or any other undesired consequences.
Risks can be divided into several categories, depending in which section they affect.
Thus we have Technical risks (Risks that have to do with technology, quality and
performance. This could also belong in Operation risks), External risks (Risks that
derive from Governmental decisions and Laws, weather conditions, etc.),
Operational risks such as employee and property risks and Financial risks that have
to do with credibility or currency issues. Financial risks can also be put into External
risks.
The following table shows types of risks and their description.

FIGURE 2.3: TYPE OF RISKS, SOURCES AND DESCRIPTION

Source: Harland et al (2003)

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2.2.1 SUPPLY CHAIN RISK

Most of the above mentioned risks, if not all, can apply in the supply chain. With
supply chain risk term we mean all those risks that are responsible and can cause a
disruption or a delay in the flow of goods in the supply chain. Those risks can be
separated into two categories, internal and external supply chain risks. Internal risks
include risks that have to do with business operations such as forecast errors,
machine dysfunctions, inventory issues, human mistakes, delayed deliveries and IT
problems. On the other hand external risks have to do with risks that are outside of
the supply chain and sometimes are unpredictable, such as weather conditions(
floods, earthquakes, hurricanes), or have to do with governmental decisions, political
conditions(wars, rebellion), financial frauds, fire, raw materials shortages , etc.
.Concerning the FMCG supply chain risks, one major issue is the fact that many of the
raw materials can be vulnerable to diseases when it comes to food industry or to
products that are based in agricultural raw materials. That can cause problems to the
supply chain as the end product could be delayed or be in less quantities than the
desirable. The following figure shows many of the potential supply chain risks.

Figure 2.4 : SUPPLY CHAIN RISKS

Source: Manuj et al (2008)

2.2.2 RISK MANAGEMENT

Risk is a component that can be found in any firm, thus is extremely important for
their viability to learn how to manage risk sufficiently.

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According to Harland et al (2003), attitude towards risk is influenced by the nature

of the business but also by individual style and behavior. Attitude changes with
experience; an individual, organization or sector used to taking risks may change
their attitude after experiences heavy losses. Taking into consideration this
paragraph is easy to understand that even if there is a low risk possibility of an
occurring event we cannot say and judge if the management plan is going to work, as
the manager puts his personal opinion and behavior while applying the plan.
Therefore, risk management is the effort of the management team to predict,
analyze and form a plan to tackle down risks that can affect any function of a
business in order to minimize costs, maximize profits and succeed in their goals.
2.2.3 SUPPLY CHAIN RISK MANAGEMENT

Supply Chain Risk Management can be defined as the plotted strategies or actions
that have to be taken from the management team, in order to prevent or to mitigate
any possible risks in the Supply Chain. According to Cristopher et al (2002) SCRM is
defined as the identification and management of risks within the supply chain and
risks external to it through a co-ordinated approach among supply chain members to
reduce supply chain vulnerability as a whole.
Moreover, Norrman and Lindroth (2002) define SCRM as SCRM is to,
collaboratively with partners in a supply chain or your own, apply risk management
process tools to deal with risks and uncertainties caused by, or impacting on,
logistics related activities or resources in the supply chain. Finally, according to
Manuj et al (2008) companies have to follow some steps to manage successfully any
supply chain risks. Those steps, which are going to be analyzed further in the next
chapter, are:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

Risk identification
Risk assessment and evaluation
Selection of appropriate risk management
Implementation of supply chain risk management strategy
Mitigation of supply chain risks

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CHAPTER 3: SCRM PROCESS

n this chapter I am going to present, discuss and analyze a framework for a

successful supply chain risk management. Each of the steps of this process is
going to be discussed in separate sub-chapter.

3.1 SCRM PROCESS

Sodhi and Tang (2012), state that the SCRM process consists of four steps. Those
steps are risk identification, assessment and evaluation of those risks, mitigation of
the risks and responding to incidents through communication, coordination and
other means. According to Manuj et al (2008) the following five step- model for
risk analysis and mitigation is proposed.
1. Risk identification
The purpose of this step is to categorize the potential risk according to the type of
risks that have been referred previously. Moreover, it is important to apprehend in
which stage of the extended supply chain the risk can be found.
FIGURE 3.1: RISK IN THE EXTENDED SUPPLY CHAIN

Source: Manuj et al(2008), Adapted from Mentzer (2001)

2. Risk assessment and evaluation

In this stage the management team has to analyze the risks that have been identified
before. Not all of those risks are critical for the supply chain, so it is necessary to
include in the analysis which are the probabilities of occurring, what are the
potential losses for the firm, what are the consequences, etc.

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3. Selection of appropriate risk management strategy

After finishing with the assessment and evaluation, the next stage is to select the
appropriate strategy. This strategy has to be tuned with the general corporate and
the supply chain strategy.
4. Implementation of supply chain risk management strategy
There are several characteristics that are important prior to the implementation of
the strategy. As the information technology is considered an important factor of the
SCRM process, the filtering of the data and the important information is vital.
Moreover, the understanding of the firm structure will help to improve
communication between employees and the management.
5. Mitigation of supply chain risks
Despite having a risk management plan plotted it is not sure that all risks are tackled
down. Risk management covers risks that are possible to happen. Thus an alternative
strategy is required in order to cover unexpected events that are going to lead to
unexpected losses.

3.2 RISK IDENTIFICATION

Risk identification consist the first stage of SCRM process. In order to achieve a
mitigation plan in a satisfactory level, it is necessary to map as many of the possible
hazards that threaten the firm, and as Greene and Trieschmann (1984) states, if not
all possible risks or sources of risk are identified then it is extremely difficult to
mitigate those unidentified risks in the future . Thus, it is critical to mention that risk
identification should be continuous in order to ensure that the management team is
aware of all the possible risks.
By source of risk we mean all the aspects of the organizational environment of the
firm that can affect positive or negative the firm. According to Tchankova (2002),
risk identification is the first step of risk management. It develops the basis for the
next steps: analysis and control of risk management. Correct risk identification
ensures risk management effectiveness.

Moreover, according to Waters (2007) it is unrealistic to list all possible risks, so he

concludes that it is more precise to say that risk identification points out the most
significant risks. Furthermore he introduces a general procedure for risk
identification with the following steps:

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1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

Define the overall supply chain process.

Define this into a series of distinct, related operations.
Systematically consider the details of each operation.
Identify the risks in each operation and their main features.
Describe the most significant risks in a register.

In order to achieve those steps and succeed in identifying the significant risks, firms
have to use, according to Waters (2007), some of the following tools designed for
general and supply chain risks: historical data, brainstorming, cause and effect
analyses, scenario planning, supply chain mapping, relative importance to the
supplier and the costumer.
FIGURE 3.2: RISK IDENTIFICATION SUMMARY

Source: Waters (2007)

On the same time it is important to classify risks in accordance with their position in
the extended supply chain and if they are categorized as domestic or
global.According to Manuj et al (2008) the objective is to create what can be
referred to as a profile for each of the risks identified in table 11.
The risk profile contains elements of the specific risk within the broad category,
whether the risk is atomistic or holistic, quantitative or qualitative and affects
domestic or global operations.
FIGURE 3.3: CREATING RISK PROFILES

Source: Manuj et al(2008)

Figure 2.2.2, page 16 (More figures for Supply Chain Risk Categories in Appendix)

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Finally, according to Harland et al (2003) the categorization of types of loss helped

to examine possible consequences; examples of consequences of non-trade
compliance are shown in figure 3.3.
FIGURE 3.4: TYPE OF LOSSES & CONSEQUENCES

Source: Harland et al(2003)

3.3 RISK ASSESSMENT AND EVALUATION

Risk Assessment and Evaluation is the second step of the SCRM process. According
to Sodhi and Tang (2012) risks can be separated into normal and abnormal. Normal
risks are identified as those risks that can be managed into the supply chain
management. Risk assessment is not considered necessary for those risks.
On the other hand, abnormal risks are those risks that can cause significant losses to
the company and the possibilities of occurring cannot be predicted precisely, as
there is scarcity of data and difficulties in accessing them.
Waters (2007) states that there are two ways of measuring risks: qualitative and
quantitative. According to Sodhi and Tang (2012) and Harland et al (2003),
companies have to assess risk by answering what are the possibilities of a risk to
occur and what are the impact and the consequences for the firm if the risk is not
managed. Those questions are part of the quantitative risk measurement. The
outcome of the quantitative risk measurement could be measured in monetary
units. Quantitative measurement should be preferred than Qualitative, because it
provides better precision to the risk assessment team, and easier comparison
between the risks. On the other hand, qualitative risk measurement describes the
concept of the risk and how it affects the firm. For example how much does the risk
affects organizations reputation and image.

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Moreover, firms have to take into consideration the possible duration of the
exposure to the risk. According to Waters (2007), probability of events could be
given by the three following approaches:

Calculating theoretical probability by using the existing knowledge of a

condition.
Analyzing Historical data in order to draw conclusions about how often the
event occurs and what are the probabilities of it happening again.
Taking under consideration firms people opinions about the probabilities of
occurring.

All of those three approaches have drawbacks as in first and third approach real
events are more complicated and it is hard to identify and analyze all the aspects.
Moreover, historical data are considered to be good approach but we should bear in
mind that conditions might have changed.
According to Manuj and Mentzer there are two major paradigms in the literature
concerning risk assessment paradigms, probabilistic choice (PC) and risk analysis
(RA). PC is based on the concept that unwanted choice will be compensated with
good events.On the other hand, RA paradigm works on the concept of minimizing
regret. Regret is the difference between the cost of an optimal solution that would
have been adopted if the decision maker knew beforehand what would happen, and
the cost of the solution actually adopted. Moreover they state that risk assessment
frameworks are divided in three wide categories: Decision Analysis, case study and
perception based. They also suggest Delphi Method, (brainstorming by a consultancy
team inside the firm in order to conclude in a consensus), when organizations lack of
historical data and further information.
Decision Analysis: Decision Analysis is a methodology that includes many procedures
and tools for assessing risks and aims to address and evaluate choices by a
quantitative approach.
This method applies statistical tools such as decision trees, influence diagrams,
probabilistic forecasting and multivariate analysis to real world problems in order to
provide a graphical representation of the alternatives, so as to provide the most
suitable alternative.
Case Study: Harland et al (2003) developed a supply chain risk assessment
framework by using a few case studies. These case studies helped the focal firm to
map the supply network, to be aware of their location and identify, assess and
manage risks in the supply chain by implementing the proper strategy.

 24 52

Perception Based: Perception based tool has to do with asking the right questions to
the right managers into the firm. By concentrating in the critical points of the supply
chain the managers achieve to assess potential risks.

All the above mentioned help the risk assessment team to prioritize and categorize
risks according to their impact in the supply chain; thereafter the firm will pay more
attention to the risks that its supply chain is more vulnerable. In order to prioritize
the risks, the management team should take into consideration several factors such
as the severity of the risk, financial consequences, cost and resources needed for the
risk mitigation.
The next table from Manuj and Mentzer (2003) is a tool for the assessment and
evaluation as it presents an explanatory analysis of the risks containing possible
losses, the probabilities, impact and the worst possible scenario and if this scenario
is acceptable/ affordable from the firm. Thereafter it is easier for the risk assessment
team to evaluate the risks.
FIGURE 3.5: RISK ASSESSMENT & EVALUATION

Source: Manuj & Mentzer (2008)

The following table is created in order to be used for the risk ranking. Risks will be
divided into four categories according to their frequency of reoccurring and the
impact that they have to the firm: Insignificant, Moderate, Significant and
Catastrophic. In order to rank easier the risks every category is going to be marked
with a color.

 25 52

FIGURE 3.6: RISK RANKING

Source: own

Insignificant:

Significant:

Moderate:

Catastrophic:

 26 52

3.4 RISK MITIGATION STRATEGIES: SELECTION AND

IMPLEMENTATION
According to Jttner, Peck, and Christopher (2003) a distinction between risk drivers
and risk mitigation strategies is obligatory. It is obvious that the improvements and
the general evolvement in the supply chain management brought new challenges
and risks as an outcome of those actions. Those management decisions have
enhanced the firms and supply chains exposure to risks and potential disruptions.
Those decisions that are taken from the organization in order to achieve better
profitability and improve competitiveness are identified as risk sources/drivers.

According to Jttner et al (2003) some of the risk drivers are given below:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

Efficiency oriented rather effectiveness

Supply chain Globalization
Focused factories and centralized distribution
Outsourcing
Limited suppliers base

On the other hand, Norrman and Jansson (2004) state that risk mitigation strategies
aim to reduce the consequences if an adverse is realized. Moreover, according to
Sodhi & Tang (2012) risk mitigation entails efforts to reduce the impact of risk
incidents in case such incidents do occur.
Jttner et al (2003) assorts four generic supply chain risk mitigation strategies:
1) Avoidance, 2) Control, 3) Cooperation,4) Flexibility , while Manuj and Mentzer
(2008) classify risk mitigation strategies in the seven following categories:
1. Avoidance:
Avoidance is preferred when the risks associated with operating in a given product
market or a broader geographical area, or working with limited suppliers or
customers, is considered unacceptable (Miller 1992). That could lead the firms to
delay their introduction to a market or even to withdraw from a market or to
withdraw specific products or to decide to invest in low risk (uncertain) markets.
2. Postponement:
This strategy gives the advantage to the firm to produce, whenever is applicable, a
generic product that is based on the total aggregated demand. By that the firm can
delay the differentiation point. This strategy could be efficient under normal
circumstances while in case of a disruption they provide great flexibility to the firm.
3. Speculation:
According to Manuj &Mentzer(2008) in speculation, decisions are made on
anticipated customer demand. Perry (1991) states that when customer-service
standards are defined by the competitive environment and customer-driven, supply

 27 52

chain resources are directed to those specific products and customers that provide
the firm with a competitive advantage.
4. Hedging:
Hedging strategy offers flexibility to the firm as gives the opportunity for dispersing
activities and collaborators (suppliers, customers, etc.). Concerning the supply chain,
if a disruption occurs, is not going to affect all the entities simultaneously.
5. Control:
According to Juttner et al (2003), companies may seek to control contingencies
from the various risk sources, rather than passively treat uncertainties as constraints
within which they must operate. Such examples are increased inventories, vertical
integration, etc.

6. Transferring/Sharing Risk
Transferring/Sharing risk can be achieved by outsourcing and contracting.
Outsourcing helps the firm to share or even to transfer the risk to suppliers.
Moreover, contracting strategy offers an array of options to the retailers, where they
can choose from according to their levels of risk aversion.
7. Security:
Security is of major importance as firms have to deal with plenty of hazards such as:
risks that might derive from chemical or biological hazards during shipping or safety
issues during the production. According to Manuj & Mentzer (2008) the ability to
sort out what is moving, identify unusual or suspicious elements and concentrate on
them, and deal with the rest of the movements through a sampling-based process
may be a viable strategy.
Moreover, Tang and Christopher (2006) propose the following robust strategies for
mitigating supply chain disruptions, that could be included or be a part of the prereferred mitigation strategies.
1) Postponement:
2) Strategic stock: Could be part of Control. Retaining inventories in
strategic locations in order to increase flexibility. It is considered
inefficient to FMCG companies related to the food industry as these
products have limited inventories.
3) Flexible Supply Base: Having alternative suppliers might increase the
cost but gives extra flexibility to the firm and minimizes the losses in a
disruption event.
4) Make and Buy: Produce some of the products or part of the products
in house factories and outsource other activities simultaneously.
5) Economic Supply Incentives: Giving financial incentives to suppliers in
order to stay in the market while binding them to certain quantities.
6) Flexible Transportation: There are three approaches, multi modal
transportation, multi carrier transportation and multiple routes.

 28 52

All of the approaches offer flexibility to the organization by giving the

opportunity to shift the mean of transportation or the route.
7) Revenue Management via dynamic pricing and promotion: Common
mechanism for shelling perishable products.
8) Assortment planning: Display products in order to affect consumers
choice.
9) Silent product rollover: New products are inserted in Market without
announcement. Lack of information leads consumers to choose other
available products.
The biggest drawback of these robust strategies is that cost might overcome the
benefits of their implementation. Another drawback could be that the desirable
strategy will not fit in the firms generic management strategy. As it is referred
previously, risk management strategies have to comply with the supply chain
management strategy and the generic corporate strategy.
Manuj and Mentzer (2008) present 4 different supply chains, according to supply or
demand uncertainties. In the following figure risk management strategies are divided
in those four categories.

FIGURE 3.7: SUPPLY CHAIN TYPES AND RISK MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES

Source: Manuj &Mentzer (2008)

According to Freedman (2003), firms have to apply an explicit strategy that must be
communicated effectively through the members of the risk assessment team.
Organizations might face several issues while attempting to implement the risk
strategy. Freedman (2003) suggests the following:

Strategic Inertia: Firms managers staying inactive.

Lack of Stakeholder commitment: Not having everyone on board.
Strategic Drift: Not focusing on the goal
Strategic Dilution: Loose leadership and low commitment levels from the
members.
Strategic Isolation: Communication and synchronization problems.

 29 52

Failure to understand progress: KPI Measurement

Initiative Fatigue: Abundance of projects that might lead to derailment.
Impatience: Managers will to implement the strategy immediately.
Not celebrating success: Not recognizing progress may put overall success in
jeopardy.

Concerning the above mentioned pitfalls, firms should aim to reduce complexity
while implementing the risk assessment strategy. Reducing complexity in the supply
chain is of major importance, as the supply chain partners could be widespread
around the world, where there is a diversity of legal and political environments that
could raise complexity.
According to Manuj & Mentzer (2008), one way of managing complexity is flexibility.
Flexibility is important in a global supply chain because it plays a facilitating role in
the coordination process and provides a unique ability to help firms manage the high
levels of environmental and operating uncertainty inherent in international
operations.
Besides flexibility, other important factors are IT, organizational learning and
performance metric.

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CHAPTER 4: EMPIRICAL RESEARCH

he empirical research consists of a presentation of a case study and the

outcome of interviews and a questionnaire. Moreover, the procedure and the
structure of the case study are going to be presented as the focus and the
goals of the interviews and the questionnaire.

4.1 FOCUS AND GOALS

This sub-chapter describes where the focus for the interviews and the case studies
should be and which the goals that are being set are.
4.1.1 INTERVIEW/QUESTIONNAIRE FOCUS & GOALS

The programmed interviews take place with FMCG industry professionals who are
supply chain oriented. Those people are fully aware of the processes and the
techniques that are used to tackle down potential risks in the supply chain and are
ideal for the interviews as they can provide the necessary data. The focus of the
interviews will be in the supply chain risk management process that is followed by
the company and what are the costs of implementation. Moreover, a minor focus
will be in potential losses in case of misjudging the risk.
The set goals for the interviews are to have a list of the major risks according to the
experts, categorized by their significance and their impact to their firm. Moreover, it
is important to note down how a firm faces a risk/disruption in the real word and to
understand how they select their strategy and what actions have they taken to
mitigate those risks and how.
4.1.2 CASE STUDY FOCUS & GOALS

The case study has to do with a Greek major Super Market that faced a disruption
when their bread supplier could not fulfill the order due to a fire in their factory.
The focus on the case study will be to bring into the surface if there are any
mistakes from the supplier or the retailers actions concerning the risk management
process, to learn what their risk management plan was and to examine if there was
any further actions that could help the super market to avoid this disruptions.
The case study focus exclusively on the fresh products of the FMCG retailer as those
products is hard to be managed, due to their expiration date and the absence of
inventory. Furthermore, the supermarket will fill in a questionnaire for categorizing
specific risks according to their significance.

 31 52

4.2 STRUCTURE & PROCEDURE

Here it is going to be explained the structure of the interviews and the case study, as
the steps before the interview arrangement.

4.2.1 INTERVIEW/QUESTIONNAIRE STRUCTURE & PROCEDURE

In order to arrange the interviews, I firstly contact the companies via e-mail, and in
the cases that they did not reply I had to call the company in order to arrange face to
face meetings. Concerning the case study the first option was adopted. Moreover,
there where cases that companies did not accept a face to face interview so I had to
form a questionnaire and send it via email. The most serious complication during this
procedure was the fact that the biggest number of the reached firms replied
negative for sharing any information and that led to limited data.
Concerning the interview structure, there are going to be prepared some questions
in advance but in case of any additional questions that have to be answered or any
queries, the interviews are going to be in a loose semi structural format in order to
be flexible to participate in the conversation. In addition, in order to avoid yes/no
answers there are going to be used open questions.
The first part of the interview is to know better the interlocutor, in order to feel
familiar with each other. Afterwards I have to elaborate on the thesis project and
explain the main goals and the purpose of this paper.
The main part of the interview consists of 3 parts. In the first part the posed
questions have to do with the kind of risks that their companies are currently facing.
Then they are asked to prioritize those risks according to their significance and the
impact to the organization.
The second part consists of questions that aim to give data and information on how
the firm and the risk management team is facing those risks, what are their actions
prior the agreement with suppliers and if there are any supplementary actions
required afterwards. The last part of the main part is the aftermath of risk
management plan.
In this part they provide me with information if the plan was successful and
efficient, if there were any losses (financial, etc.) and if there were any other further
actions required in order maintaining supply chain resilient.
The final part of the interview is a limited conclusion of the previous discussion and
assurance from my side that the given information are confidential, and are going to
be used only for academic purposes.

 32 52

4.2.2 CASE STUDY STRUCTURE & PROCEDURE

In order to be fully aware of the case study I had to contact all the involved parties
for an interview. Despite being willing to explain the incident to me, the supplier in
the examined case study did not want to share any further information about the
strategy that his firm followed after the disruption and the losses that they possibly
had. Therefore the biggest weight was on the retailers reaction. Furthermore, I
accessed the web for information concerning the case study. The procedure was the
same as was described above.
The first part of the case study structure was to collect information about the firms
through their official websites in order to know the status of the organizations. The
next step was to let the respondent narrate the case study from his perspective, in
order to have an objective point of view for the case study.
The main part of the case study interview was to have a clear picture of what were
the consequences for the retailer, what was their action plan before and after the
disruption and in general if they had an SCRM process plotted. In this part it is
important to understand if the company was ready to face potential risks and to
observe who was responsible from the organization for the taken decisions (risk
management team or individuals).
The last part of the case study is about concluding on what did go wrong and what
have the company done precise in order to tackle down the disruption and
Moreover, to come up with more actions and mitigation strategies that could
possibly be applicable in the specific situation.

4.3 INTERVIEW PARTNERS

This chapter presents the experts that are going to participate in the interviews and
the role that they have in their organization. Moreover, in this sub-chapter the parts
of the case study are going to be presented.

4.3.1 INTERVIEW EXPERTS & QUESTIONNAIRE

ATHENIAN BREWERY:
Athenian Brewery is the biggest beer producer company in Greece. They are
responsible for launching in the Greek Market, Heineken and Amstel brand names
among others.

 33 52

Athenian Brewery was found in 1963 and nowadays the export their products in 11
countries. Due to Horeca Exhibition that took place in Athens during February, their
time was limited. Thus instead of an interview they answered to the adjusted
questionnaire.

Mr. Loukas Konstantinidis:

Mr. Loukas Konstantinidis is a food technologist and quality manager. Moreover, he
is responsible for accessing risks and plotting a risk management strategy for the
company. He works for Honey-center ( in Greek)P. Kavouras & SIA O.E , a Greek company that provides the Greek market with honey,
products that derive from honey and all the necessary items and tools that are
needed for the honey industry.

4.3.2 CASE STUDY FIRM PARTNERS

STERGIOU SA:
Stergiou SA is a confectionery, bread & sandwiches company that was found in
Athens in the middle 60s. The company is an exclusive supplier of the Greek army,
many of the major Greek hospitals and the Super Market, My Market concerning the
fresh bread, sandwiches. The company employs more than 200 people. Moreover,
Stergiou owns a network of bakeries that sells his product directly to customers.

My Market:
My Market was founded in 1976 as Metro and was re-launched as My Market in
2004. My Market is the third biggest retail Super Market in the country with 58
stores in their network. Despite the Greek debt crisis they succeed opening 13 new
stores in the last 4 years and they employ more than 4.000 people.

 34 52

CHAPTER 5 EMPIRICAL STUDY ANALYSIS

his chapter aims through the analysis of the case study, the interviews and the
questionnaire, combined with the theory presented earlier in this paper, to
provide a better understanding on how do organizations prepare themselves
and react to potential risks and disruptions in general and in their established
exchanges.

5.1: STERGIOU S.A. MY MARKET CASE STUDY

During the summer of 2012, and more specifically in the late August, a fire started
for reasons unknown in the production unit of Stergiou SA confectionery and Bread
Company. Due to the fact that Stergiou had exclusive partnerships with many
organizations, that disruption led them to be inefficient in supplying specific kind of
products to them. By the time that their products have short expiration dates it is
obvious to realize that he was not able of retaining an inventory, so they could
handle the crisis smoothly.
My Market is one of those companies that have an exclusive partnership with
Stergiou concerning buns, cakes, fresh bread and sandwiches. The dates after this
incident, Stergiou decided that they could cover the production of buns and cakes,
which have a little bit longer expiration date (almost a month) and a daily production
was not necessary, from their bakery stores instead of the production unit. Despite
trying to mitigate the disruption, they could not find a way to put back in truck the
production of the fresh bread and sandwiches, by the time that their expiration date
was of four days maximum. This ineffectiveness led My Market to have shortages in
the above mentioned products for at least two months that Stergiou could not
deliver them.
In the forthcoming sub-chapters I will explain and analyze the actions that My
Market did while signing the contract with Stergiou and while the disruption in their
partnership occurred, in accordance with the SCRM process that was analyzed above
in this paper.

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5.1.1 RISK IDENTIFICATION

Risk identification is the first step of the SCRM process and it is considered extremely
important as it gives a clear picture of the possible threats that a company could
face. That is why My Market, through their SCRM team, try to map the most
significant and realistic risks that could harm the firm.
Their first steps are to categorize the risks in order to know better in which section
of the supply chain they might occur. Firstly they categorize risks in two bigger
categories, internal supply chain risks and external supply chain risks. Internal risks
are further categorized into the following categories: Supply risks, Demand risks,
Security risks and Operational risks. In the external risks the most significant
categories
are
Weather
related
risks
and
Hazard
risks.
The following table shows the most important risks that have been identified by My
Market.
FIGURE 5.1: MY MARKET RISKS
EXTERNAL RISKS
WEATHER

HAZARDS /
OTHER

Snow (this could be in

operational risk too, as the
outcome of the risk is
distribution related
problems.)

Earthquakes
Port workers Strikes

INTERNAL RISKS
SUPPLY

DEMAND

Inaccurate
forecasts

OPERATIONAL

IT risks
Transportation
disruptions
FIFO loose strategy
Wrong ordering

SECURITY

Source: My Market interview

Bad product
quality
Late deliveries
Inaccurate
forecasts

Employee
accidents
Fire in the facilities
Vandalisms

 36 52

Concerning the specific case study, the Stergiou risk management team had not had
highly prioritize the specific disruption. On the other hand My Market risk
management team prioritize this risk in the internal risks and more precise in supply
risks. During the contract talks they have agreed that there is not necessary to put a
clause in a case of disruption due to hazard reasons as something like that was
unlikely to happen. Moreover, despite being an exclusive partnership there was not
signed a clause that could limit My Market of signing with other suppliers. According
to Manuj et al (2008) it is to create a profile for every risk in order to be easier for
the company to assess the risk and to know exactly what kind of potential losses
they might have. Concerning this, My Market identifies almost the whole of the risks
as domestic risks, as their operations are only in Greece (except limited cases that
the supplier is abroad) and moreover, they distinguish two possible types of losses:
financial losses and reputation losses.

5.1.2 RISK ASSESSMENT & EVALUATION

Risk assessment and evaluation constitutes the second part of the SCRM process. It
is extremely important for firms, as it is designed to provide them with information
about losses and consequences, as well as with the probabilities of a risk to happen.
My Market uses a combination of Decision Analysis and Perception Based method.
The most important type of loss for them, according to My Market risk management
team, is the one that affects their reputation, as they believe that the potential
financial losses that are the aftermath of bad reputation cannot be calculated in long
terms. That is why they mostly prefer Perception Based method, as according to
Manuj and Mentzer Perception Based tool gives the opportunity to the managers to
assess potential risks by concentrating in the critical points of the supply chain.
Moreover, they could use the Delphi method too, but they believe that it would
require more time in order to reach a consensus. Additionally they believe that a
consulting team does not know, as they do, how the organization works. Decision
Analysis is used for risks that hide potential financial losses, which are going to be
significant for the company.
In this case study My Market deals with Supply risks and more specifically with the
late deliveries risk (in this case is no delivery at all from the supplier), as due to the
fire in Stergiou facilities, the supplier was unable to deliver the order to the super
market. This risk is been evaluated as possible and the impact on the company as
major. According to their evaluation, the risk is considered as significant by the time
that it can cause shortages to the super market and harm the super markets
reputation, as well as causing losses.

 37 52

During the interview they stated that in Stergiou case the evaluation could be
different if they knew that they would be in shortage for two months. After this
experience they decided to add a new supply risk category named delivery
disruption. This category is evaluated as infrequent with severe impact on the firm.
This risk would still be classified as significant since the possibilities of occurring are
not as many as in the late delivery risk.
The following table shows which are the most significant risks for My Market, what is
the impact to the company and finally what are the probabilities of occurrence
according to figure 3.5.

FIGURE 5.2: RISK ASSESMENT & EVALUATION

RISKS

PROBABILITY

IMPACT

EVALUATION

Wrong Ordering

POSSIBLE

MEDIUM

SIGNIFICANT

Lack of Quality Control

UNLIKELY

MINOR

INSIGNIFICANT

Under/Over Receiving

POSSIBLE

MAJOR

SIGNIFICANT

Buyer orders with his initiative

UNLIKELY

MINOR

INSIGNIFICANT

LIKELY

MAJOR

CATASTROPHIC

INFREQUENT

MAJOR

MODERATE

Late Deliveries

POSSIBLE

MAJOR

SIGNIFICANT

Loose Inventory Control

POSSIBLE

MINOR

MODERATE

Security issues

UNLIKELY

MEDIUM

INSIGNIFICANT

IT / Technological issues

UNLIKELY

MAJOR

MODERATE

FIFO loose implementation

Weather conditions disruptions

According to this table, My Markets most significant risk is considered to be a loose

implementation of the FIFO strategy. They state that by not following correctly the
strategy, they are forced to destroy those products in the Super Markets, as product

 38 52

returns are not accepted by the suppliers, due to the clauses in signed contracts.
Moreover, there are additional costs added by the scrap procedure followed in
their stores.

5.1.3 RISK MITIGATION STRATEGIES: SELECTION & IMPLEMENTATION

As it is mentioned above, the fire in Stergiou facilities caused a lot of problems in My

Market, as it left its super markets with shortages concerning confectionery
products, sandwiches and fresh bread.
Regarding confectionery products that have a short expiration date, Stergiou took
the responsibility and decided to use a variation of make and buy mitigation robust
strategy. Stergiou could not continue the production of all of their products in the
home factory and decided to continue the production of products with a longer
lifespan (cakes for example) to their three retailer shops that had the capability of
baking (in smaller quantities though). The variation is that Stergiou shifted the
production, but did not outsource it; by the time they could cover the needs of their
clients, concerning the confectionery products. On the other hand Stergiou did not
have a mitigation plan for continuing the production of the fresh bread and the
sandwiches. A solution according to the literature would be an implementation of
the make and buy strategy and most specifically to outsource part of the production.
However this is not so realistic, as the strategy is not considered an effective solution
when the company is not facing a disruption and it could probably cost more than
the benefits that is going to offer.
On the other hand, My Market had to face a supply chain disruption that led their
super markets to shortages, concerning mostly the fresh bread and secondly the
sandwiches. Their problem was that Stergiou was their exclusive supplier,
concerning fresh bread and sandwiches, and they were not sure what the right
action for the company was during the disruption. Concerning other products where
there are many suppliers, My Market usually implements Revenue Management and
Assorting Planning techniques in order to hide possible supply disruptions. The lack
of an alternative supplier leads My Market to financial losses, but not significant
enough to harm the organization. The biggest issue for the firm was the fact that
their clients would not find fresh bread in the stores and that would harm their
reputation and strengthen their competitors.
Moreover, taking into account that the type of the supply chain was an efficient
supply chain with low demand and supply uncertainty, led My Market to a major
drawback to their risk management strategy, related with not applying the control
and the Flexible Supply Base mitigation strategy. In accordance with Macneil (1978)

 39 52

an aspect of the control strategy could be to design contract in such a way that
account for possible changes and risks.
That actually means that My Market could put specific clauses in cases of supply
disruptions that could force the supplier to find an alternative way to fulfill the
orders. As they explained they had not followed the control strategy because they
underestimated the probabilities of a fire event in the facilities of a major supplier.
Despite the fact that this may sound reasonable there are still additional actions that
the firm could do in order to mitigate the disruption. They could adopt the flexible
supply base robust strategy that is referred by Tang and Christopher (2006).
According to this strategy the firm could have more than one supplier for a specific
product in order to achieve bigger flexibility. The drawback of this strategy is that it
raises the cost under normal circumstances, but in the examined case that could not
be a major problem as there are only two products, with small purchasing cost. My
Market did not have an alternative supplier and the greatest mistake, which they
admitted ex post, was that they did not approach an alternative supplier during the
disruption, as they were reassured that the production will start again almost in a
month.

5.2 INTERVIEWS QUESTIONNAIRES

The following sub-chapters are going to present the most significant risks related to
the supply chain, according to Greek FMCG companies professionals and how do
their companies act in order to tackle down those risks.
5.2.1 RISK IDENTIFICATION

According to Athenian Brewery, they had formed a risk assessment team in order to
identify, assess and mitigate risks. This team closely cooperates with Procurement
and Planning Departments in order to achieve smooth operations and the
continuous flow of goods. As he stated, they try to list as many possible risks as they
can in order to be ready to face any disruption in their supply chain. This task is
considered infeasible as the risks can be hundreds, so the firm records only the risks
that they believe that can harm them directly and in such a way that it will cause
them significant financial losses and lead to a bad reputation. Moreover, during the
risk identification they are consulting their suppliers so they can cover all of the
possible threats that their company might face. That is why in their signed contracts
they put special terms that have to be fulfilled, such as: exact delivery dates, quality
issues, specific service level, etc. The following table shows the most significant risks
according to Athenian Brewerys risk assessment team.

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FIGURE 5.3: ATHENIAN BREWERYS RISK IDENTIFICATION

RISK CATEGORY

RISKS

TYPE OF LOSSES

SUPPLY RISKS

LATE DELIVERIES/DELAYS
INACCURATE FORECASTS

COMBINED FINANCIAL AND

REPUTATIONAL

OPERATIONAL RISKS

FINANCIAL PRIMARILY AND

REPUTATIONALY SECONDLY

WRONG ORDERING/ INACCURATE

LEAD TIME
STOCKPILLING
INEFFICIENT/WRONG DISTRIBUTION

ENVIRONMENTAL RISKS

EXTREME WEATHER
NATURAL DISASTERS

FINANCIAL

TECHNOLOGICAL RISKS

MACHINE BREAKDOWN
IT ISSUES

FINANCIAL

GEOPOLITICAL RISKS

PORT TRADE UNION STRIKE

CORRUPTION

FINANCIAL

DEMAND RISKS

BACKORDERS
QUALITY / PRODUCT
DISSATISFACTION
STOCK ALLOCATION

Source: Athenian Brewery Questionnaire

BOTH

Mr. Konstantinidis, representing P. Kavouras & SIA O.E, stated that in order to
identify the most significant risks for the company they closely collaborate with their
future suppliers. Regarding their approach, they brainstorm with their future
suppliers, prior the agreement, in order to point out the most significant threats that
they could possibly harm their supply chain. After this they agree in the contract
terms by adding special clauses and terms in order to bind each other. Acting like
that, according to Mr. Konstantinidis, allows the company to map all of the possible
threats, concerning both sides. Furthermore, I was informed that they decided not to
form a risk assessment team as their company is a domestic small company that
operates in the Greek Market, and they believed that risk should be assessed by the
person that has the biggest experience in companys trades. The following figure
shows the identified risks for P. Kavouras & SIA O.E Honey Center.

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FIGURE 5.4: HONEY-CENTER RISK IDENTIFICATION

RISK CATEGORY

RISKS

TYPE OF LOSSES

SUPPLY RISKS

LATE DELIVERIES/DELAYS OF
RAW MATERIALS

COMBINED
FINANCIAL AND
REPUTATIONAL

OPERATIONAL RISKS

REPUTATIONAL

WRONG ORDERING/
INACCURATE LEAD TIME
DEFICIENT DISTRIBUTION

ENVIRONMENTAL RISKS

EXTREME WEATHER
NATURAL DISASTERS

FINANCIAL

TECHNOLOGICAL RISKS

MACHINE BREAKDOWN
IT ISSUES

FINANCIAL

GEOPOLITICAL
RISKS/OTHER

PORT TRADE UNION STRIKE

AIR TRAFFIC CONTROLLERS
STRIKE

FINANCIAL

Source: Honey-center interview

5.2.2 RISK ASSESSMENT & EVALUATION

After the risk identification, Athenian Brewerys risk assessment team has to
prioritize and rank the founded risks according to their impact to the organization. In
order to achieve that and be fully aware of the potential threats they mostly use
Perception Based tool and the Delphi technique. Firstly they make a list of the
identified risks and then with the assistance of the responsible managers they rank
those risks according their possibilities of occurrence and the consequences that
might cause to the firm. Afterwards they implement the Delphi technique by
providing the list that they have made to a consulting team, in order to have a more
precise opinion about the potential risks.
According to the risk assessment team the most significant risks for Athenian
Brewery are fitted in the demand risks category. Those risks are presented and
ranked in the following table according to figure 3.5.

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FIGURE 5.5: RISK ASSESMENT & EVALUATION:

RISKS

PROBABILITY

IMPACT

EVALUATION

Inaccurate Lead time

POSSIBLE

MEDIUM

SIGNIFICANT

Unsatisfactory Quality

UNLIKELY

MEDIUM

INSIGNIFICANT

Backorders

POSSIBLE

MAJOR

SIGNIFICANT

Inventory Issues/ Stockpiling/Stock allocation

LIKELY

MEDIUM

SIGNIFICANT

Lack of Raw Materials/Late Deliveries

LIKELY

MAJOR

CATASTROPHIC

INFREQUENT

MAJOR

MODERATE

Freshness Issues/ Returns

POSSIBLE

MAJOR

SIGNIFICANT

Demand Fluctuations

POSSIBLE

MINOR

MODERATE

Security issues

UNLIKELY

MEDIUM

INSIGNIFICANT

IT / Technological issues

UNLIKELY

MAJOR

MODERATE

Weather conditions disruptions

Source: Athenian Brewery Questionnaire

The most significant risks for Athenian Brewery are put in the operational, demand
and supply risks categories. The most significant out of all is the possible lack of raw
materials and the possibility of late deliveries. It is obvious that with the possible
absence of the raw materials the firm is unable to produce its final product and
launch it to the market. Thus Athenian Brewery puts in the contracts clauses that
require deliveries from their suppliers in exact dates and specific lead times in order
to face this problem as well as the backorders issue.
On the other hand, according to Mr. Konstantinidis, P. Kavouras & SIA O.E/Honey
Center forms the list of risks by using if scenarios technique in order to find the
impact and the possibilities of the potential risks. In this company, as in the two prereferred, a perception based variation is being used.
Due to the fact that they are a small company, they try to map and assess all the
possible risk by brainstorming and critical thinking. This technique according to Mr.
Konstantinidis examines situations that decline from normal and it is mostly based
on the experience that the managers of the firm have. It is important to refer that
their way of thinking during the brainstorming process looks identical with what

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Waters (2007) have suggested, as they try through their existing knowledge of the
situation and the historical data to determine the probabilities of occurrence.
The following table consist the outcome of the interview with Mr. Konstantinidis and
it briefly describes the type of the identified risks, the probabilities of occurring and
the impact that those risks to the firm. The probabilities of the risks where given in
percentages and they were converted according to the figure 3.5 during our
conversation.
The most important risks as are listed in the following table are related with the
operational part of the supply chain and more specifically with distribution
problems. Other significant risks for the company are related with raw materials
issues, late deliveries from the suppliers and weather conditions as they can affect
the distribution to the islands.

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FIGURE 5.6: RISK ASSESMENT & EVALUATION:

RISKS

BRIEF PRESENTATION

PROBABILITIES

SIGNIFICANCE

5% / Infrequent

Product Quality
Assurance

The product has to be

checked in order to meet
clients and companys
standards. Client
dissatisfaction due to quality
related issues.

Medium Impact to
the company. Risk is
ranked as moderate.

Weather
conditions

This category contains

severe weather conditions,
as well as winds that can
block ship departures to the
islands.

10% / Infrequent

Medium Impact to
the company. Risk is
ranked as moderate.

Raw Materials/
Late Deliveries

Shortages of raw materials

are created due to late
deliveries from the suppliers.
As a result there are delays
in executing the orders.

30% / Possible

Medium Impact to
the company. Risk is
ranked as significant.

Deficient
Distribution

This risk could be listed in

two categories as
distribution is a part of
operations. On the other
hand, this issue is created
several times due to port
trade unions and air traffic
controllers strike, causing
disruption to the
distribution.

30% / Possible

Minor Impact to the

company. Risk is
ranked as moderate

Technological
/IT issues

Production problems due to

machine breakdown

<5% / Unlikely

Major Impact to the

company. Risk is
ranked as moderate.

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5.2.3 RISK MITIGATION STRATEGIES: SELECTION & IMPLEMENTATION

The first action that Athenian Brewery plots to implement in order to mitigate the
pre- mentioned supply chain risks prior the agreement with them is trying to be as
precise as possible with their forecasts in order to meet the demand and avoid
possible backorders. Moreover, they put contract clauses, this is recognized as a part
of a transferring/sharing strategy as it is described by Manuj & Mentzer(2008),which
bind both the suppliers and the company to specific dates and lead times. All of
these actions though have been taken prior the potential agreements with their
potential suppliers and constitute preparations from the firms side. The actions that
the organization is going to take concerning their established exchanges are
different.
According the risk assessment team, after the agreement with the suppliers the risk
assessment team deploys plan b, even plan c concerning the potential risks.
The most significant risk is the late deliveries of raw materials. Due to the
promotion-based Greek competitive market, the delay of raw materials that are
intended for tailor made activities could be disastrous for the firm as deducts
reliability and enhances bad reputation. Moreover, such an event turns the
consumers and the retailers to competitors. The supply chain in this case is
characterized as of responsive supply chain with low supply and high demand
uncertainty, by the time that there is strong competition in the market, based on
promotional activities. Concerning this risk the organization has qualified the proper
risk mitigation technique, as they should add flexibility in their supply base. That is
why they selected to have two alternative suppliers in order to be flexible in
disruptions; despite they know that this could increase the cost during normal
circumstances. This is exactly the flexible supply base robust strategy as described by
Tang & Christopher (2006). Another action that it could be effective, is the
implementation of retaining strategic stock. According to the firm this could raise the
inventory cost and could lead to stock allocation. On the other hand though, this
could add flexibility to the firm and limit possible losses during a disruption.
Another significant risk for the most FMCG companies that are related with the food
industry is freshness issues and expiration dates management. According to the
company freshness issues can be caused from several reasons. Some of them could
be late or deficient deliveries of products that delay the packaging procedure and as
a result late delivery to the retailers or wrong forecasting that could cause producing
more than the demand requires. This is considered a significant risk, as those
products are returned to the company, where they have to be destroyed
According to the theory, the most suitable strategy is the robust strategy of revenue
management through dynamic pricing and promotion; and this is the strategy that

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the firm follows in occasions like that too. This strategy gives the advantage to the
company to offer products that have short expiration day in special low prices or
form a promotion that could give for example 2 products in the price of one. Despite
being forced to sell products in lower prices, firm avoids the destruction cost, the
cost of not selling the product and the inventory holding cost.
The other two most significant risks according to the firm are backorders and
inventory related issues, such as stockpiling and stock allocation. Concerning
backorders, it could be created as an outcome of another risk referred before (lack
of raw materials) and moreover, from wrong demand forecasting. Limiting
backorders is extremely important for the firm due to competition. Backorders are
mitigated by retaining strategic stock but according to the firm sometimes is not
enough to cover the demand. Another way to limit this issue is using revenue
management via promoting similar products that are available, if that is possible of
course.
The second significant risk is related with the inventory control. Stockpiling and
stock allocation are two important issues that the company has to tackle down. The
firm is aware of the fact that by retaining big stock increases the inventory holding
costs, so they desire only to retain stock adequate enough to cover the demand and
a safety stock in case of possible disruption. Despite their will something like that is
not possible and there are situations that they had experienced stockpiling. Mr.
Alexandropoulos informed me that his company uses again the revenue
management robust mitigation strategy, as they think that this is a fast way to keep
their inventory balanced. Despite this strategy though, they could also implement
assortment planning. By this strategy the company aims to affect consumers
selections by displaying their products in such a way that are always visible to them.
Moreover, this robust strategy could be combined with revenue management.
Stock allocation on the other hand occurs when the code of a product has been
withdrawn from the production and the firm holds a limited stock for specific
retailers. Based on the lead times and how often the retailer puts the order this
could increase significantly the holding cost. So far they had not implement a
strategy to face this potential risk. The most proper strategy for this risk seems to be
transferring/sharing strategy and more precise the contracting part. By putting a
clause for the case of stock allocation the firm binds the retailer to order the product
on an exact date.
Concerning Honey-Center, the most significant risk is the late deliveries of raw
materials, as they affect directly the production and the packaging procedures.
The created shortages lead to delays in the execution of the received orders.
The firm implements the robust strategy of the flexible supply base in order to
assure the smooth flow of their goods in the market by creating a larger base of

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suppliers concerning raw materials. Moreover, as it is mentioned above, the creation

of strategic stock is a great strategy for the Honey-Center as their products do not
have short expiration dates and can be retained.
Another moderate risk with minor impact to the company is the deficient
distribution issue that derives from geopolitical risks such as port trade unions and
air traffic controllers strike. Those problems interrupt the supply chain as many of
the ordered quantities are destined for retailers who have their stores in islands. In
cases like this, the only way to deliver the product is via ship or airplane. Despite
those problems, that are quite often, there is not a major impact to the company, as
Mr. Konstantinidis stated, by the time that the products can be retained for quite a
long time and retailers know that such problems might occur. An additional
mitigation action for this risk could be the adaption of decentralized warehouses in
order to avoid the distribution problems concerning islands that are close to each
other and the transportation is faster.
Moreover, weather conditions and extreme natural disasters are considered as a
moderate risk with medium impact to the company, as are infrequent. Despite being
infrequent, they can sometimes be severe as they can interrupt the supply chain.
The most common issues related to natural disasters are distribution disruptions and
supply disruptions due to snow, wind and earthquakes. A solution to this problem
could be to adopt decentralized warehouses instead of centric one. By this
strategy the firm achieves flexibility but on the other hand it raises the cost
significantly.

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CHAPTER 6 CONCLUSIONS

his chapter is the outcome of this Thesis as it presents the drawn conclusions
concerning the research questions and the research objectives which had
been posed earlier in this thesis project.

Research Question 1: What are the most significant risks that Greek FMCG
companies have to tackle down?
The first research question aims to identify and rank the most significant risks related
to the Greek FMCG organizations. In order to be efficient and fulfill their goals,
companies have to plot a strategy plan proactively. All of the interviewed companies
firstly identified possible risks that could cause disruptions to their supply chain. The
next step was to rank the identified risks according to their significance concerning
two factors, their potential impact to the company and the probabilities of occurring.
The tool that is selected in order to assess and evaluate the risks varies from firm to
firm according to their size and organizational structure. A risk matrix was created
and was given to them for that purpose with specific levels of impact to the company
and likelihood of happening.
According to the presented case study and the interviews with one Multinational
and one domestic company, most of the risks that affect FMCG companies are
related with operational and supply risks. Concerning the position of the company in
the supply chain those risks vary from loose FIFO implementation, late deliveries,
lack of raw materials, backorders, wrong ordering, under/over receiving, extreme
weather conditions, loose inventory control, freshness issues, product quality
assurance, It/ technological related risks and deficient distribution.
After the assessment and evaluation process and according to the risk matrix ranking
the most significant risks for FMCG companies are the following: Under/ Over
Receiving, Wrong ordering, late deliveries, FIFO loose implementation, backorders,
loose inventory control , freshness issues, and lack of raw materials.

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Research question 2: What action plans are implemented by Greek FMCG

companies in order to mitigate those significant supply chain risks?
After the identification, assessment and evaluation of the risks the next required
step for a company, so it can be prepared for a disruption, is to come up with risk
management mitigation plans. This is not an easy task as every risk should be
addressed differently. Moreover, there are many cases in which a unique mitigation
plan is not adequate enough to confront the potential risks, as the risk could be
more complex and affect several aspects of the company. Most action plans
concerning established exchanges are based in Tang and Christopher (2006)
proposed robust mitigation strategies.
The most significant risk concerning the retailers is loose FIFO implementation. FIFO
strategy is essential for the management of expiring products as it allocates the short
expiring products first in the shelf. FIFO strategy related risks could be mitigated by
promotion actions for the short expiring products, dynamic pricing and better
training of the employees in order to manage the shelf space in an effective way.
One of the most significant risks is lack of raw materials / late deliveries from the
suppliers. This risk is of a major importance for FMCG companies as their products
are fast moving the lack of raw materials or late deliveries can possibly delay or
disrupt the supply chain and the production process. There are several mitigation
strategies that could apply for this risk. The most effective are the flexible supply
base that allows the company to have alternative suppliers and the retaining of
strategic stock that enables the firms to have enough stock to their warehouses to
handle potential crisis.
Moreover, backorders and inventory control related issues are significant for FMCG
companies. Backorders could be mitigating by more accurate forecasting and by
retaining strategic stock. This though could lead to the creation of big inventory and
raise the holding cost. Thus companies should implement revenue management by
promotion or dynamic pricing in products that are in abundance. Revenue
Management is an acceptable strategy concerning freshness issues, by providing
short expiring products in low prices.
Moreover, another mitigation strategy that could be implemented concerning this
risk is assortment planning. By using this robust strategy, the firms display in a highly
noticeable position the products that they want to sell in order to manage their
inventory in an effective way.

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CHAPTER 7 FUTURE RESEARCH

The purpose of this Master Thesis was to identify how FMCG companies manage and
rank risks that could affect their supply chains. Risks can vary from company to
company concerning the nature and the position of the company in the supply
chain. The research took into consideration three different kinds of FMCG
companies, a retailer, a multinational company and a domestic company, in order to
have a clear view of the issues that could threaten a FMCG company. That is why a
risk matrix is created and presented in this project in order to make it easier for the
companies to assess and evaluate risks according to the significance and the impact
to the company.
This Thesis could be used as a comparative paper for future relevant research
concerning the ways that FMCG companies could mitigate the supply chain risks.
Moreover, a future research could be involved with tools for monitoring the
identified risks inside the company and their supply chains, especially the upstream
supply chain that could affect operations in total. Additionally, as freshness issues
arise in cases of delays of raw materials, a future research concerning traceability
could be conducted, as it is extremely important for FMCG companies that operate
in fresh food section to know more and specific information about the condition and
the position of sensitive products. Furthermore a future research could search,
sturdy and propose an alternative supply chain risk management process that could
be more efficient for the companies.

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