RhodeIslandMarineTransportation

CCIAAssignment

By:CarolineSalvaneschi,GregOhadoma,PhilRobinson,andWillConnelly

May4,2016
ECC355
ProfessorLang


ExecutiveSummary

ThisreportcontainsthehistoryofmarinetransportationinthestateofRhodeIsland
alongwithhighlightingthemultitudeofvaluesitprovides.Italsogivesgeneralbackground
informationontheglobalissueofclimatechangeaswellasitsbenefitsandcost.Withinthe
reportcontainsthemonetizationofthreeclimatechangeimpacts(flooding,100yearstorms,
andthenorthernsearoute)thatRhodeIslandwillendure.Thereportfindsthatthereareboth
positiveandnegativesclimatechangeimpacts.Ourfindingsshowamonetizationof$257
MillionsolelyfromdamagefromfloodingofthePortofProvidenceandamonetizationofabout
$175Millionofdamagesfrom100yearstormswiththesumaccumulatingtoaround$472
Million.However,thetotalmonetizationwouldbetheabsolutevalueofthemonetizationofthe
northernsearoute,
$49,826pervesselleavingfromRhodeIsland,subtracted
by$472Million.
Toconcludethisreport,arewaystominimizetheimpactsonRhodeIslandmarinetransportation
sector.

TableofContent

Summery
ExecutiveSummary...................................1
1.Introduction

1.1.
HistoryofRhodeIslandMarineTransportation..................3
1.2.ThevalueofMarineTransportationtothestateofRhodeIsland..........4
2.
BackgroundonClimateChange
2.1Basicsofclimatechange,globalgeneralities,specificstoRhodeIslandandsector.5
3.
AssessmentofImpactsandMonetaryCosts
3.1.
PositiveEffectsofClimateChangeonMarineTransportation...........8
3.2.NegativeEffectsofClimateChangeonMarineTransportation..........10
3.3.MonetizationofFlooding..............................11
3.3.Monetizationof100yearsstorms..........................14
3.5MonetizationoftheNorthwestPassage.......................16
4.

WaystoMinimizethecostofClimateChangeonMarineTransportation
4.1MinimizingImpactsonRhodeIslandMarineTransportation............19
5.Sources
Bibliography

.......................................22

Section1:Introduction
1.1HistoryofRhodeIslandMarineTransportation

RhodeIslandwaterwaysareextremelyimportantandarehighlyvaluablemarine
transportationcorridors.TheyarekeycrossroadsforNarragansettBay,LongIslandSound,
BlizzardBay,andtheVineyardSound.Forover400years,vesselsincludingcargoships,
tankers,bulkcarriers,tugs,bargeunits,passengerferries,navalvessels,governmentresearch
vessels,militaryships,andfishingoperationshavepassedthroughthesewaterways.Theyleadto
manyofourcommercialports,harbors,andmilitaryfacilities,allcarryinggoods,moving
people,andservingmanyotherfunctionsthatareessentialtoRhodeIslandsmostimportant
industries(OceanSAMP,2011).Tourism,trade,commerce,andfishingtheseareamongthe
state'smostimportanteconomiesandtheirsuccessiscontingentonourwaterways.
Startinginthe17thcentury,RhodeIslandhasusedthesewaterwaysformaritimecommerce,
exploration,transportation,andmilitarypurposes,allcenteredaroundonshoreRhodeIsland
locationslikeNarragansettBay,Providence,andNewportHarbor.Inthe17thcentury,the
RhodeIslandcommercialfishingindustrywasjustbeginningtogrowoffthesoutheastcoastof
thestate.NewportHarborhadbeenanimportantmilitaryandtradingareasincethecolonies
werearound.Newportsdeepandwellprotectedharborprovidedtheperfectcolonialmilitary
harboranditlaterbecameamajorportfortrading(KellnerandLemons2004).
Inthe18thand19thcenturies,thetradeindustrymovedfromNewporttomoreindustrialized
Providence.SoonProvidencebecamethehomeofRhodeIsland'sshippingindustry,Rhode
Islandwastheonlyareathathadtheabilitytoexportmoregoodsthantheyimported.Thestate
stilldependsontheoceantradeindustrytoday.TownslikeNewportwelcomedtourismasits
newindustry.Alsointhe18thand19thcentury,thetourismandfishingbusinessesgrowinareas
likeNarragansett,PointJudith,Newport,andBlockIsland.Thesetwoindustriesnowaccountfor
muchofthedaytodaymarineactivitiesinRhodeIsland,asopposedtotradeandmilitary
activities.TheOceanStatehasalwayshadastrongconnectiontoitswaterways,andthese
connectionshave(always)beenessentialtoRhodeIslandseconomicgrowthandvitality,and
arecentraltoRhodeIslandshistory(OceanSAMP,2011).Atthistime,
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1.2ThevalueofMarineTransportationtothestateofRhodeIsland

InmoderndayRhodeIsland,thevesselsthataremostprominentinthestate'smarine
Transportationindustryarefishingboats,cargoship,passengerferries,cruiseships,and
governmentvessels.Thesemarinetransportationoperationsareextremelyvaluabletothestate
ofRhodeIsland.In2004,RhodeIslandsmarinetransportationrelatedindustriesaccountedfor
1,968jobs,$134millioninwages,and$97millioningrossdomesticproduct(OceanSAMP,
2011).Ifyouincludetherecreationalandfishingrelatedindustries,theeconomicimpactofall
theseactivitiesinRhodeIslandtotal$1.1billion,supports12,265directjobs,and$425million
inwages(OceanSAMP,2011).ConcludingthattheRIsmarinetransportationrelatedindustries
arefinanciallyveryimportanttothestate.Thisindustrycreatesthousandsofjobsandmillionsin
wagesforRhodeIslanders.
Themarinetransportationindustrynotonlyfinanciallydrivesthestatebutitalsoquite
literallypowersthestateofRhodeIsland.ThePortofProvidenceaddsgreatregionalvalueto
theareabecauseitisamajorhubforPetroleumandotherenergyrelatedproducts.Theenergy
productsthatcomeintoProvidencedirectlypowersthearea.ThemarketservedbythePortof
Providencecoversapproximately2,000squaremilesandprovidesservicesforapopulation
conservativelyestimatedatroughly1.25millionpeople(OceanSAMP,2011).TheArmyCorp.
ofEngineersreportedin2007thatthePortofProvidencetookin6,142thousandtonsof
petroleum.Sowhenitcomestoimportingenergyproductsintothestate,RhodeIslandusesits
waterwaystoitsfulladvantage.
Lastly,lookathowmarinetransportationplaysabigroleinRhodeIslandveryprecious
tourismindustry.Whentalkingabouttourismandmarinetransportationwefirstthinkaboutthe
Ferrysystem.MultipleFerrysystemsoperateinRhodeIslandswaterways,transportinggoods
andpassengerstoandfromdestinationslikeNewport,PointJudith,BlockIsland,LongIsland
andMarthasVineyard.TheInterstateNavigationFerrysystemconnectsNewportandPoint
JudithtoBlockIsland.TheInterstateNavigationstraditionalferrysystemcarriedapproximately
1,500,000passengersand37,000automobilesin2010(InterstateNavigationCO.,2010).These

FerriesarevitallyimportanttothestatebecausetheyconnecttheRhodeIslandtourismmarketto
stateslikeNewYorkandMassachusetts,makingthemveryvaluableandpopular.Theybring
thousandsoftouristsintothestateeveryyear,andthesetouristsarevitaltothestateofRhode
Islandseconomy.
ItisclearthatMarineTransportationhasalwaysplayedacentralroleinRhodeIsland's
wellbeing.MarineOperationslikeshipping,fishing,andferriesarewhatcarrymuchofthe
state'smostimportantindustriesliketourism,trade,andenergy.ClearlythestateofRhodeIsland
isextremelydependentonitsmarinetransportationindustry.TheproblemofClimatechangeis
adirect,majorthreattoMarineTransportation.ClimateChangehasthepotentialtochange
everythingaboutmarinetransportation.Wearealreadyseeingchangeinouroceans,likerising
sealevels,risingsurfacetemperatures,changingcurrents,andchangingweatherpatterns.These
changesareinevitabletosomeextentandtheyinevitablywillimpactmarinetransportationin
RhodeIslandandallovertheworld.Thispaperisgoingtolookatandanalyzetheeffectsof
climatechangeonRhodeIslandspreciousmarinetransportationindustry.

Section2:BackgroundonClimateChange
2.1Basicsofclimatechange,globalgeneralities,specificstoRhodeIslandandsector

Climatechangereferstotheshiftingofweatherpatternsduetovariationsinthesuns
energyreachingEarth,changesinthereflectivityofEarthsatmosphere,andchangesinthe
amountofheatretainedbyEarthsatmosphere.Allthesefactorsarecontributingtoachanging
globalclimate,particularlyinmakingitwarmer.Thisglobalwarmingismainlycausedby
pollutantsreleasedbyhumanactivitysuchasburningcoalandcaremissions.Thepollutants
fromtheseprocessesarecalledgreenhousegases.ThesegasesincludingCO2,methane,and
watervaporarebecomingconcentratedintheatmosphereandcreatingwhatiscalledthe
GreenhouseEffect.ForexampletheconcentrationofCO2inouratmospherehasincreased40%
from280partspermillionbeforetheindustrialrevolutiontoaround400partspermillionin
2014.Undernormalconditions(lowerconcentrationsofpollutantparticles),whensunlight
reachesEarthitispartiallyabsorbedasheatandtheremainderisreleasedupintotheatmosphere
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andeventuallyintospace(SAMP,2011).However,thegrowingconcentrationofgreenhouse
gassesisalteringouratmospheresmakeupandisslowingorpreventingtheextraheatfrom
escapeintospace.Thistrappingofheatwithinouratmosphereisprimarilywhatiscausinga
shiftinclimate.Additionallysomeofthesepollutantsintheatmosphere,likecarbon,arebeing
absorbedbytheoceancausingahigheracidificationlevel.Awarmerclimatealsomeansmore
glaciericemelt,contributingtosealevelrise.Partiallossoficesheetsonpolarlandand/orthe
thermalexpansionofseawateroververylongtimescalescouldimplymetresofsealevelrise,
majorchangesincoastlinesandinundationoflowlyingareas.Thegreatesteffectswillbeseen
inriverdeltasandlowlyingislands.Currentmodelsprojectthatsuchchangeswouldoccurover
verylongtimescales(millennial)ifaglobaltemperatureincreaseof1.9to4.6C(relativeto
preindustrial)weretobesustained.Rapidsealevelriseoncenturytimescalescannotbe
excluded.(IPCC,2007).Astheplanetanditsoceanswarmandrise,existingweatherpatterns
andecosystemsaresubjecttounprecedentedchanges.Stronger,morefrequentstormsare
expectedduetostatisticalevidenceofstorms,heavyprecipitation,cyclones,andtropicalstorms
increasingoverthepastcentury(IPCC,2007).Theworldcanexpecttoexperienceawarming
averageclimate,sealevelrise,oceanacidification,strongerstormsandmorefrequentnatural
disasters.Thisposesanenormousthreattothemarinetransportindustryaroundtheworldandin
RhodeIsland,astatethatreliesheavilyonitsexposuretotheocean.
Impactsthatcantbeignoredarethatiftheclimatecontinuesitislikelytheoceanwill
increaseintemperatureandgainahigheracidification.Theoceanabsorbsanthropogenic
pollutantsfromtheatmospherewhichacidifytheworldsoceansandthewarmerouratmosphere
getsthewarmertheoceanswill.Thiswillhavepotentiallymajorimpactsonmarine
transportationthefirstbeingthatstormsfeedoffofandfollowwarmwater(IPCC,2007).With
morewarmwaterwewouldseestormstravelingfaster,farther,andstrongerthannormalto
placeswheretheyarenotnormallyfelt.ThisisexactlywhathappenedwithhurricaneSandyin
2012thatcausedover50billiondollarsofdamagetotheeasterncoastanditsmarineindustries.
Alessdrasticissuemightbeseenwiththehigheracidificationofoceansshipswouldrustfaster
requiringfrequentmaintenanceandpossiblyahigherdemandfornewships.Warmwateralso
allowsforsimplelifetogeneratefastermeaningplantspecieslikealgaewouldgrowonvessels

atahigherthanaverageraterequiringmorefinancestokeepthemefficient.Theupkeepof
keepingmarinetransportvesselsandindustryinorbytheoceanwillbecomeincreasinglymore
expensiveandrisky,havingthepotentialtodisrupttradeandstalleconomiesaroundtheworld.
Climatechangeposesanumberofrealthreatstoglobalmarinetransportation,iftheclimate
continuestowarmandthereforechange,marinetransportationwillslowlybecomemore
expensiveaswellasunrealistic.
Negativeimpactswouldalsocomeintheformofdamagecausedbyrisingsealevels,the
floodingassociatedandmorefrequentstorms.Asseasrise,coastallandandindustrynearthe
waterthatwereoncesafefromstormsurgesandhightideswouldbecomemoreandmore
susceptibletodamage(Stormtools,2016).Coastalerosionwouldhaveatremendousimpacton
RhodeIslandanditseconomy,beingthepeoplecometothestateandspendmoneyinthestate
whentheyflocktothebeaches.Dockageandpiersinportsandharborsinthestatecould
experiencemoreconsistentdamageandeventuallythepossibilityofbecomingobsoleteifsea
levelrisesurpassescertainlevels.Sealevelriseholdsthechanceofcausingimmensedamageto
marinas,shippingdocks,commercialfishingfacilities,coastguardstationsandmilitarybasesby
thewater.Ahighsealevelmeansthatwhenastormcomesandthenstormsurges,waterlevels
couldriseabovewhatdocksarebuilttowithstand.Thiscouldbreakthedocksup,release
vessels,causedamageandoverallinhibitthemarinetransportationindustrysabilitytofunction.
HighseasandpotentiallystrongermorefrequentstormscouldcrushRhodeIslandsareaslike
PointJudith,Providence,Warwick,andQuonsetthatrelyoncommercialfishing,ferries,water
taxiandmarinas.ClimatechangeinRhodeIslandwouldbringamanymorenegativeimpacts
thanpositive.Theonlyforeseeablepositiveimpactbeingawarmerclimateandlongermaritime
seasonandbeingRhodeIslandsclaimtofameholdsthepossibilityformoreeconomic
stimulationyearround.RhodeIsland,beingastatewithsomuchcoastlineandsucha
dependenceonmarinetransportandindustry,couldbedevastatedbyclimatechange.Risingsea
levels,warmingwaterandotherissuesassociatedwithclimatechangecouldcrippleRhode
Islandsmarinetransportation,slowingthestatesalreadyweakeconomy.

Section3:
AssessmentofImpactsandMonetaryCosts
3.1.
PositiveEffectsofClimateChangeonMarineTransportation

Climatechangeisacomplicatedtopicintodayssociety.Manyhavetroubledefiningit,
andevenrecognizingitslargeimpactonoureverydaylife.Whenclimatechangeismentioned,
thefirstthoughtsthatcometomindarethenegativeimpactsthatithas.However,climate
changehasbenefitedtheEarthandoursocietyasawhole.Ithasmadeusmoreawareofour
actions,aswellasdirectlyaffectingtheindustry.
Globally,theeffectofclimatechangehasgivenuslongergrowingseasonsforcrops.
Potentially,
thegrowingseasonisalreadyabout15dayslongerthanatthebeginningof
the20thcentury(change).
Beingabletoextendthegrowingseasontoincreaseyieldswill
benefiteconomies,aswellastheconsumers.Morevaluablecropsalsocouldgrowinawider
varietyofareas.Thisisalsogoesalongwithhavingwarmerwinters.Thewarmerthewinter,
thelessweneedtoheatourhomes.Potentially,thiscouldleadtolessdependenceonoiland
otherfossilfuelsthatareusedtoheatourhomes.
Climatechangehaspositivelyimpactedmarinetransportationinmanyways.Itis
changinghowtheindustryoperates.Climatechangehascausedglaciersinthearctictorecede.
TheyaremeltingenoughtoopennewtraderoutesthroughandaroundtheArcticCircle.The
NorthernSearouteisestimatedtobeopenforroughly125daysduringthesummermonthsby
2050(Wynn,Gerard).InternationalMaritimeOrganizationSecretaryGeneralKojiSekimizu
state'scommercialactivityandeconomicdevelopmentintheArcticisincreasing,and
increasingrapidly.Thisisattributedtoglobalclimatechange(Koji).Alongwithnewtrade
routes,themarinetradeindustryhasalongerperiodofoperation.ThearticleMarine
Transportation,NavigationandRelatedInfrastructuregaveinsightstotheenvironmentalimpact
ofclimatechangespecifictoRhodeIsland.Thewarmertemperatureswillcauselessiceinports,
andonshipsthemselves.Alongershippingseasonwillallowforincreasedrevenues.Along
withthis,thehigherthesealevel,themorenavigabilityinwaterways.Shipswillbeableto
travelfurtherinsomesituations,aswellasportsgainingtheabilitytohouselargerships.

Besidestheshipping,thetourismsideofmarinetransportationwillhavealongerseason.
WarmerweathermeansthevacationseasonintourismhotspotslikeNewportwillincrease.
TourisminplaceslikeNewportreliesonthemarineindustry.BlockIsland,Nantucket,and
MarthasVineyardstourismreliesonaferrytotransportpeopletotheIsland.Theoperationof
theferrydependsontheweather.Warmerweathermeansmoretouristactivity.
Besidestheindustryasawhole,therehavebeenchangestohowshipsoperate
themselves.Climatechangehasforcedshipstobemoreecofriendly.Withoutclimatechange,
theywouldnothavebeenforcedtomakethesechangestotheindustry.In2007,theshipping
industryemittedjustover1.2billionmetrictonsofCO2(EllyciaHarrouldKolieb).The
industryhasasignificantimpactonourclimate.Shipshavebeenreducingtheirspeedtolessen
theirenvironmentalimpact.Wearenowawarethatwhenashipslowsitsspeed,theamountof
co2releaseddecreasessignificantly.Theaveragecruisespeedforavesselis25knots.Yusuf
KhanfromtheUniversityofCaliforniaRiversideconductedastudyaboutspeedreduction.
Theirfindingsshowedthatcomparedtoacruisingspeedof25knots,CO2levelsat12knotsor
belowshowedsimilarreduction(61%and56%)inCO2andNO.Thisisasignificantdecrease
ingreenhousegassesthatotherwisewouldbeenteringouratmosphere.Therearewaystoreduce
emissionswhentheshipsareinportaswell.ColdIroningreferstohookingtheboatupto
powerfromland,allowingthemtoshutofftheirengines.Theycanbeatportforuptoseveral
days.Thiswillreducetheamountofparticulatematterreleasedfromidlingdieselengines.
Particulatematterhasbeenlinkedtomanyhealthriskssuchasheartandlungdisease,andozone
intheatmosphere.
Itisclearthatclimatechangehasaffectedourwayoflife.Itisuptothemarineindustry
asawholetoadjusttothesechangesandmoveforwardpositively.Theimpactswillaffectnot
onlytheshipsthemselves,buttheportsandharbors.Thereisopportunityforincreased
efficiency,inthedesignoftheships,aswellastheroutestheycantravel.

3.2.NegativeEffectsofClimateChangeonMarineTransportation

Withthepositiveimpactsofclimatechangeonmarinetransportation,therealsocomes
manynegativeimpacts.Themostmajorglobalchangesclimatechangeisresponsibleforare,
increasedairtemperature,increasedsealevel,increasedextremeweather,increasedsummer
season,andmoreacidicocean.Thethesechangesnegativelyaffectthemarinetransportation
industryandtheRhodeIslandsectorisnoexception.Wearealreadyseeingthenegativeeffects
ofclimatechangewithinthestate,andourmarinetransportationsectorisgoingtofeel,tothe
fullextent,howharmfultheseimpactsaregoingtobe.

(RISAMP,Ch.3Pg.7)
Alltheseglobalchangeshave
differenteffectsonmarinetransportations
navigation,andinfrastructure.Someof
themostnotablenegativeimpactsaresea
levelrise,increasedextremeweather,and
increasedacidification.Theseimpacts
imposethemostnegativeimpactsonthe
industry,anditsnavigation,and
infrastructure.Sealevelriseisharmfulfor
theinfrastructurebecauseitincreasesthe
chanceofflooding,causesmore
corrosion,andcreatesaneedforhigher
bridges.Eachyearthesealevelisrising

10

ontheindustryisgoingtohavetospendmoneytomakeadjustmentstoadapttothischangeand
itisgoingtobeverycostly.
Moreacidicoceanwaterissomewhatofanoverlookedimpactofclimatechange,butits
somethingtobeconsideredwhenthinkingaboutmarinetransportation.Theincreasedacidityis
causedbytheformationofcarbonicacidasCO2dissolvesinseawateranddecreasingpHlevels.
Thisincreasedacidityincreasestherateofcorrosiononvesselsandinfrastructureassociated
withmarinetransportation,navigation,andportsandharbors.
Increasedstormintensityisanotherimpactthatwillhavemassivenegativeeffectsonthe
industry.Increasedstormactivitywillbeseenintheformofmorefrequent100yearsstorms,
moreintensehurricanes,moreprecipitation,andhigherwindspeeds.Theideaofmorefrequent
andintensestormsisreallyconcerningtothemarinetransportationindustry.

3.3.MonetizationofFlooding

Higherseasandthepotentialoffrequent,powerfulstormswouldhaveahugeeconomical
impactonthePortofProvidencespecificallyitsterminalsandcranes,throughfloodingandthe
damagesassociated.Thecombinationofsealevelriseandthepossibilityofa100yearstorm
putsmuchofProvidencesportinfrastructureatriskofflooding.Byusingtheprogram
Stormtools,aGISmappingsystemthatestimatesthe
effectsofflooding,weareabletovisualizetheimpactof
a5footsealevelriseonthePortofProvidenceaswell
astheimpactofa100yearstorm.Thelighterblue
representsthe5footsealevelriseontheportof
providenceandthedarkbluerepresentstheflooding
associatedwitha100yearstorm.Theserepresentations
giveanideaofthepossibledamagethatcouldoccur
fromflooding.Portinfrastructureaswellascargostored
bythewaterwouldbesubjecttodamageifflooding
occurred.Thereisalsoinfrastructurethatwouldbe

11

damagedduetoflooding.Onemaintooltheportneedstocontinueproductionaretwo10.5
milliondollarcranestounloadthecargofromships,thesecranesaccountfor$45,175,865
(Walaska,2012)ofeconomicoutputannually.Toputthisintoperspective,ifthecraneswereto
becompletelydestroyedorlost,theinitialcostwouldbe21milliontoreplacethemwithan
additionalcostof$3,764,655.42accruedeachmonththecranesarentoperating.Thiscostofnot
doingbusinesswouldalsooccurduetohighertidesandmorefrequentstormsregardlessifthe
cranesweredamagedornot.Cargocantbe

TenantsofthePortofProvidence

loadedandunloadedifwaveheightandtideheightarenthigh(Walaska,2012).Heightened
intensityinstormswouldcreateperiodsofhighwavesultimatelydecreasingtimeforshipsto
unloadatterminalsanddelayingdepartures.Increasedtimeneededtounloadcargocouldresult
intheneedformoreareaforanchoringofwaitingvesselsintheport.Withhightidesandthe
possibilityoffloodingofportlands,thetimesthatcargocanbeloadedwilldecreaseinnumber.
Thishasthepossibilitytobeabottleneckfordistributionandincuracostofnotconducting
businessbynotallowingtheportcranestooperate.

12

Floodingwouldalsodamagethecargoandgoodsheldattheportbeneaththepossible
floodlevel.Facilitiesthatwouldbedamagedorcompletelyfloodedwouldincludeproductsfrom
thetenetsoftheportNewEnglandPetroleum,WashingtonMills,LehighTerminal,Schnitzer
Northeast,EnterpriseProducts,Univar,PortsAmerica,3FlagsHolding,EUKORautoimports
andInternationalSalt.Eachofthesecompanieshaveastoragefacilitywithintheportandnotall
oftheterminalsholdcargothatcanbedamagedbyflooding.TheLehighterminalseenonthe
abovemapimports180,000tonnesofbulkcementmixtureannually.Onetonofbulkcementis
worth$100.5(U.S.Cement).Atanygiventimeontheterminalthereis50,000tonstoragedome
fortheconcrete(ProvPort,2016).Ifthedomewheretobefloodedandtheconcreteruinedbythe
moisture,thetotaldamagecouldtotal$5.25million.TheUNIVARterminalimportschlorine,
bleachandwatertreatmentservicestomunicipalities.50,000tonsofchlorineandbleachare
importedbyUNIVARannuallyatanaverageof$900aton(ProvPort,2016).Throughourown
estimationsandresearch,wehaveestimatedthatonaverage142tonsofUNIVARsproductsare
intheirterminalandsusceptibletofloodingdamageanygivenday.Theestimatedmonetized
amountwouldbe$126,000ofpossibledamageiftheterminalweretoflood.Wecametothis
estimationbydividingtheannualimportof50,000bytheaveragenumberofdaysperyear
UNIVARwouldhaveshipmentsunloadedattheirProvidenceterminal(352days),tofindthe
averagetotaltonnageofproductwouldbeattheterminalonanaverageday,whichcameto142
tonnes.Theotherterminalsintheportholdcargothatiseitherprotectedfromfloodingorwould
notbelostordevaluedbywaterdamage.ThetotalimpactoffloodingonthePortofProvidence
canbemonetizedbyaddingthetotalcostofdamagetocranes(initial$21millionwithan
additional$3,764,655.42eachmonthofnotoperating)withthecostsofcargodamageifthe
terminalswereflooded($5.25millionforruinedcementand$126,000fordamagetoUNIVAR
products),inaggregatethehypotheticalmonetizationofafloodonthePortofProvidencewould
equal$30,140,655.4.Thatnumberrepresentsthefuturevalue,itisimportanttonotethatthesea
levelriseweaccountedforwhichcreatesthepotentialforsuchcostlyfloodingwillnotbe
realizeduntil2100.Toaccountforthisweuseda3%discountrateinordertofindthepresent
costofflooding,whichis$2,516,667.33.Itisclearthatfloodingassociatedwitharisingsea

13

levelwillcausedamagesinthePortofProvidence.Itisuptotheporttoprepareforthem,and
maketheirimpactassmallaspossible.

3.3.Monetizationof100YearStorms

RhodeIslandhasbeenimpactedbyanumberofmajorstorms,themostsevereofwhich
are100yearsstorms,andtheypresentamajorcoastalandmarinehazard.Whatisa100years
storm?Itsastormthatslikelytoonlyhappenonceevery100yearsintermsofwaveheightand
magnitude.Sothesestormshavea1percentprobabilityofoccurringinanysingleyear.The
qualificationofa100yearstorminRhodeIslandwouldbe,stormsurgeover11ftandwaves
over30ft.(SAMP,2011).Thelast100yearstormRhodeIslandsawwastheHurricaneof1938.
However,100yearsstormsarebecomingmorefrequentbecauseofclimatechange.The
warmoceansurfacetemperaturesactasfuelformanystorms.Duetoclimatechangetheaverage
seasurfacetemperatureinRhodeIslandhasalreadygoneup4since1960(SAMP,2011).This
iscausingmorefrequentandintense100yearstorms.Thisprobabilityincreasechangesthevery
definitionof100yearstorm,thatanyonestormwillbegreaterthanthatcurrentlydefinedasa
100yearstorm.AccordingtoRhodeIslandSpecialAreaManagementPlan,thechanceofa100
yearstorminRhodeIslandgoingsupto4%by2050and50%bytheendofthecentury.On
average,eachyearthereisa05%increasedlikelihoodofa100yearstormstrike.Inconclusion,
duetoclimatechangein2100RhodeIslandwillhavea1in2chanceofastormthatwillcreate
over11ftofstormssurgeand30thwaves,thecurrentqualificationsofahundredyearsstorm.It
shouldbenotedthatthispredictionisunderathehighemissionsscenario,isnotaconservative
prediction.

14

WhatwillthiscostforRhodeIsland'sMarineTransportationsector?MichaelPowersan
authorityonmarinetransportationstatedthat,Stormsarewhatreallycauseproblems(for
marinetransportation),theycauseustodivertourpathorstayinport,lostdaysatseaarevery
costlyformybosses...shippingisdangerousandClimateChangeismakingitevenmoreso.
TheProvidenceporthasexperiencedtwo100hundredyearstormandtheyeachcaused10+ft
ofstormsurge.ThetwostormscostedthePortofProvidence$225and$134intoday'svalues
(SAMP,2011).Iveaveragedthisto$180.
Soonaverage
t
hecostofa100yearsstormis$180
milliontoProvidenceharborsandports.
Onceyouaddtheincreasedlikelihoodofa100year
strike,yougetanewcostof100yearsstormduetoClimateChange.(Seefigures)

Next,toshowthecostofthatonestormhappeningwithinthenext100yearswithout
climatechange,anddiscountingthat$180millioncostby3%tobringitdowntofuturevalues.
Withof3%discountratethecostofahundredyearstormtoRImarinetransportationwithout
climatechangeis58.6million
.Next,tocomparethenewcostwhenyouconsiderclimate
change.Whenyouthinkaboutthelikelihoodofa100yearsstormhavinga50/50chanceof
happeningin2100duetoclimatechange,thenitsfairtosayisnolongeramatterofseeingonly
oneeveryonehundredyears.By2100becauseofclimatechangewewillnotsufferfrom1one
15

hundredyearstorm,weareprojectedtosufferabout15stormsofacurrent100yearmagnitude.
AddingupthecosttothePortofProvidenceduetotheincreasedstormfrequencyand
discountingby3%willbe$334millionoverthenextonehundredyears.Comparingthattothe
3%discountcostof$58millionwithoutclimatechange.
Thatsa275milliondollarcostincrease
overthenextonehundredyearsimposedonRImarinetransportationduetomorefrequent100
yearstorm,duetoclimatechange.

3.5MonetizationoftheNorthwestPassage

TheNorthwestPassageisa
directshippingroute
betweentheAtlanticandPacific
Oceans
acrosstheArcticOcean.Upuntilrecentlythemajorityofithasbeencoveredinice
givenitspositionintheNorthPole.However,duetoclimatechangethethicklayeroficethat
hasbeencoveringitishasbeenvanishing.Therateatwhichtheiceismeltinghas
scientistslike
MarkSerreze,anArcticexpertattheUniversityofDenver'sNationalSnowandIceDataCenter,
predictingthattheArctic
couldbecomeicelesswithin
twodecades."Asthe
perennialicemeltsandopen
waterisavailableforlonger
periodsoftime,weare
committedtoexpandingour
16

Arcticcapabilities,"saidRearAdmiralJonathanWhite,OceanographeroftheNavyandthe
Navy'sTaskForceClimateChangedirector.Thispassagebeingopencouldhaveahuge
economicalimpactonmarinetransportationinthestateofRhodeIsland.Itwouldessentiallybe
anaccumulationofviablecoursestonavigatethroughthenowicyArcticOcean.Theseroutes
areimportantbecauseitwouldsaveasignificant
amountof
timeaswellasfuelforshipsthat
havetotravel
fromEurope,NorthAmerica,orevenAsiatogettotheAtlanticorPacificOcean
fortrade.

Normallythevoyageforanextraslowsteaming/slowsteamingcargoshiptoget

fromtheAtlanticOceantothePacificOceanisabout14days.TheuseoftheNorthwestPassage
wouldshortendistancetraveledandthereforetimetraveled.Itultimatelyreducesthetimeofthe
tripby35%,whichendsupbeingroughlya9daytrek.
Mostexpertsbelievenowthatbecauseof
theincreasingglobaltemperatures,bytheyear2030,thepassagewillbeopenforyearround
use.Itisevidenttoseethatthisclimatechangeimpactcouldbebeneficialtothemarinetransport
business.Seeingthatitordinarilytakes14daystomakethecommutefromthe
AtlanticOceanto
thePacificOceanasingleshipwouldonlybeabletomake26tripswithinayear.Ontheother
handifasingleshipweretoutilizedtheNorthwestPassageandshortenthetriptoonly9days
pertripitwouldbeabletomake40.5tripsayear.The14.5extratrekswould
inestimably
increasetheprofitmarginforeachshipthatmadethevoyage.Accordingtoanadaptedgraph
called
"Fuelsurchargepracticesofcontainershippinglines:Isitaboutcostrecoveryorrevenue
making?"

fromT.Notteboom,andP.Carrioudonein2009aftertheInternationalAssociationof
MaritimeEconomistsConference,inCopenhagen,Denmarka
freighterusesabout125tonsor
35718.75gallonsoffuelperday.
Days

Tonsofgas
perday

Gallonsof
gasperday

Priceofa
gallonofgas
at$2.11

Priceofa
Poundsof
gallonofgas CO2burned
at$2.11with
3%discount

125

3968.75

8374.06

5536.24

70167.50

250

7937.5

16748.13

11072.48

140335

375

11906.25

25122.19

16608.73

210502.5
17

500

15875

33496.25

22144.97

280670

625

19843.75

41870.31

27681.21

350837.5

750

23812.5

50244.38

33217.45

421005

875

27781.25

58618.44

38753.69

491172.5

1000

31750

66992.5

44289.93

561340

1125

35718.75

75366.56

49826.18

631507.5

10

1250

39687.5

83740.63

55362.42

701675

11

1375

43656.25

92114.69

60898.66

771842.5

12

1500

47625

1004488.75

66434.9

842010

13

1625

51593.75

108862.81

71971.14

912177.5

14

1750

55562.5

117236.88

77507.39

982345

Atcurrentgaspricesof$2.11pergallona14daytripfromthePortofProvidencetothe
PacificOceanwouldcostaround$117,237.AspreviouslystatedtheuseoftheNorthwest
Passagewoulddecreasetraveltime35%.HypotheticallyifacargoshipweretostartatthePort
ofProvidencewiththedestinationbeingacountryaccessibleonlybythePacificOcean(i.e.
Asia)itwouldcost$75,367.NotethatthePassageisntpredictedtobeopenuntil2030
therefore,thecostofthe9daytravelpriceofgasshouldbediscountedby3%tobringitto
futurevalue.Witha3%discountratethecostoftheNorthwestPassagetoasinglevesselis
$49,826.Thenorthernsearoutewouldsaveanindividualship$67,411ingasforonetrip.
Mostareunaware
thatcargoshipsuse
lowgradebunkerfuelas
wellasthefactthatthey
consumefuelnotbythe
gallon,butbytheton.The
U.S.EnergyInformation
18

Administrationreports,17.68poundsofCO
isemittedfromthefossilfuelcontent.Just
2
onetonoffuelisequivalentto31.75gallons,whichwouldmeanthatburningjustthatsingleton
wouldemitabout561poundsofCO
intheatmosphere.Bunkerfuelalsoemitsanotherharmful
2
gascalledsulfurwhenitisburned.Actually,itemits2,000timestheamountofsulfur
comparedtodieselfuelusedinautomobilesThatbeingsaideverythingwehavethatis
importedisbroughttousthroughfreightersandthatisntgoingtochange.Theuseofthe
NorthwestPassagewouldsignificantlycutgreenhousegasemissionsandultimatelyaddan
environmentalbenefittothemarinetransportationsector.Thedifferencebetweenthefourteen
daysittakestogettothePacificOceanfromtheAtlanticversustheaffectclimatechangehason
northernsearoutetoshortenthetriptoninedaysinpoundsofCO
emittedintotheatmosphere
2
is35,0837poundsorroughly175tons.EachtripusingtheNorthwestPassagewouldhavea
smallercarbonfootprintontheworldthannotusingit.Withshortertrips,shippingcompanies
canhopefullycompletethenumberofvoyagessufficienttotheirneedswithoutexceedingitto
unreasonablelevelsresultinginhigherCO
emissionsinayear.With40ninedaytripsinayear
2
ashippingvesselwouldaccrue45,000tonsofemissionswith$3,014,662spentonfuel.Those
figuresarestillcheaperandbetterfortheenvironmentthanjust26fourteendaytripsthat
accumulateto$3,048,159spentonfueland45,500tonsofemissions.Withadiscountrateof3%
tobringthemonetaryvalueintofuturewouldgiveamonetizationof40ninedayvoyageswithin
ayeartotheglobalmarinetransportationsectorusingthenorthernsearouteis$1,993,047.
Whilethemonetizationof26ninedayvoyageswithinayearis$1,295,481.

Section4:
WaystoMinimizethecostofClimateChangeonMarineTransportation
4.MinimizingImpactsonRhodeIslandMarineTransportation

TheoperationsofRhodeIslandsmarinetransportationsystemareinfluencedbythe
externalenvironment.Climatechangehascausedtheindustrytoadapttoconditionsthatinthe
recentpastwerentfathomable.Someofthesealterationshavepositiveeffects,increasing
efficiency.Otherssideeffectsofclimatechangearecostlytotheindustry.However,thereare
waystoreducethesecosts.Twoofthemainenvironmentalissuesthatneedtobeaddressedare
sealevelriseandincreasedstormactivity.
19

Oneofthemostapparentcoststothemarinetradesindustryissealevelrise.Globally,
weareseeingtemperaturesonaslowbutsteadyrise.Sealevelriseispartiallyduetoglaciers
receding,ormeltingatthepoles.The2013IPCCreportstatesthatglobalsealevelriseby
2100is0.52to0.98m.Sealevelrisemostlyeffectsmarinasandportsofthemarine
transportationindustry.ItisenoughofaconcerntoRhodeIslandthatacommissionwasformed
lastyeartodeterminetheeconomicimpactofsealevelriseonSouthCounty,Providenceand
Newport.
Fortheeastcoastalone,sealevelisprojectedtoriseby31to61centimetersby2100
(Asbury).Docksandpiersaresupportedbypilingsdrivendeepintotheseabed.Thedockcan
onlyriseasmuchasthepilingsaretall,buttheyareableriseandfallwiththetide.Installing
floatingdockswithpilingswouldkeepthedockfunctionalforlongerthanthedocksthatare
stationary.Thisisonebigstepmarinascantaketoreducethecostofclimatechangeonthe
marineindustry.Thosedocksmayneedtoincreasethesizeoftheirpilings(Parimal).Most
importantly,tokeepthecosttoaminimumplanningaheadiscritical.URIoceanengineering
studentshavecompletedprojectsmeasuringthelengthsofpilingsinHarborsaroundtheState.
Thisiscriticaltoaccuratelydeterminehowdetrimentaltheimpactwillbe.Sealevelrisealso
causeserosionandsedimentdisplacement.Wheredoesallthesandandsedimentthaterodes
fromthebeachgoto?SeanCornellandotherUniversityofPennsylvaniaProfessorsstatethat
sedimentcouldbuilduptoformbarrierislandsjustoffthemainland.Thistypeofsediment
displacementcouldinterruptvitalshippinglanes.Ifsedimentweretodecreaseaccesstoaport,a
dredgingoperationcouldbeusedtotakethesandoutofthearea.Itmayhaveaninitialcost,but
losingactivityinavitalportwouldbemoredetrimental.Finally,withhighersealevels,itmay
limittheoperationofcertainbridgeswhenthereisahightide.Underamoontidesituation,not
beingabletopassacertainbridgeisatroublingsituation.Waystominimizethisiscreatenew
routesaroundthatcertainbridgetoavoidtheconstructionofanewone.Calculatingtheserisks
beforetheybecomerealproblemsisthemostimportantstepthatcanbetakentoavoidmore
costlyissues.

20

Besidessealevelrise,stormsarepredictedtoincreaseinseverityduetoclimatechange.
TheIPCCObservations:SurfaceandAtmosphericClimateChange

statesthatintheAtlantic
ocean,therecentincreaseintropicalhurricaneactivityisduetorisingseasurfacetemperatures.
Hurricanesgainenergyinwarmerwater.Thishighertemperatureispredictedtobethecauseof
increasedhurricaneactivity.Historically,hurricaneshavebeendetrimentaltothecoastof
RhodeIsland,especiallytoinfrastructurethatisimportanttotheshippingindustry.Tominimize
thedamagedonebystorms,secureyourvesselbeforeithits.Insomecases,theNavywillsend
itsboatsoffshorebeforealargestormhits.Thesameprotocolcouldbefollowedwithtankers
andshippingvessels.Doingthiswouldbeanaddedcosttothecompany,butitsworththerisk
thanlosingashipanditscrew.Buildingabreakwalltoabsorbthewaveswillalsodecrease
damagesdonebystorms.ThishasbeendonealreadytotheportofGalileeinRhodeIsland
wheretheFrancisFishingFleetiskept.Thebreakwallprotectsoneofthemostimportant
economicindustriesintheState.
Overall,itisnotpossibletostopthesechangesfromhappening.Itisuptoustoadaptto
themandminimizethecoststheycreate.Thereiscoststoincreaseandchangemarine
infrastructureinplaceslikeportsandharbors.Butmoreimportantlyisthetimingofthese
changes.Theyneedtobeanticipatedanddonebeforetheybecomeaproblemthatneedstobe
immediatelyfixed.Whenprojectsarerushed,cornersarecutandcostwillgoup.Planning
aheadisnecessaryforthemarineindustrytoadapttoourchangingclimate.

21

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24