2010 Ontario Municipal

Candidates Experiences
From CERIS Working Paper Visible Minority
Electability in Urban Local Government in Ontario
Friday, October 25, 2013

Presented by: Matt Smith, Stratcom and

University of Toronto (MA)
Co-Author: Dr. Alan Walks, University of Toronto

Focus of CERIS Research Project

Growing body of literature into visible minority electability in
Canada
Establishes visible minority under-representation, especially at
municipal level
Gaps in the research:
Causes of under-representation
Relationship to neighbourhood composition
Experience of visible minority candidates

Research Questions & Methods

1. Are visible minorities under-represented in municipal political
offices in Ontario?
Method 1: Index of Representation, 2006 and 2010 elections

2. Is there a relationship between neighbourhood ethnic

composition and local visible minority electability?
Method 2: Spatial Analysis Minority Elected/Residents

3. Experiences and opinions of visible and non-visible minority

candidates in Ontario municipal elections?
Method 3: Survey of 2010 election candidates

Scope of Research Project

Visible minority electability in six Ontario municipalities
1. Markham (65% visible minority, 2006)
2. Brampton (55% visible minority, 2006)
3. Mississauga (49% visible minority, 2006)
4. Toronto (47% visible minority, 2006)
5. Richmond Hill (46% visible minority, 2006)
6. Ottawa (20% visible minority, 2006)

Method 3: Survey of 2010 candidates

Survey of 2010 Mayoral and Council candidates in study cities
Questions on visible minority electability, election results,
campaign tactics, ways to address under-representation
Candidates with mailing address

403

Candidates with email address

360

Invitations to participate in survey

returned to sender

Letter

29

Email

204

Candidates declined to participate in survey

Candidates began online survey

88

Total valid responses

78

Findings: Survey of Candidates

Do the 2010 election results reflect ethnic makeup in city?
Total

VM Respondents

NVM Respondents

Yes

17%

26%

11%

No

41%

58%

40%

Somewhat

35%

16%

40%

Unsure

8%

0%

9%

Are visible minorities over, under or proportionally

represented by municipal elected officials?
Total

VM Respondents

NVM Respondents

Over-represented

3%

0%

0%

Under -represented

73%

95%

70%

Proportionally represented

18%

5%

21%

Unsure

6%

0%

9%

Findings: Survey of Candidates

Harder for visible minority candidates to get elected?
Total

VM Respondents

NVM Respondents

Yes

44%

80%

33%

No

27%

0%

37%

Somewhat

21%

20%

22%

Unsure

8%

0%

9%

Does your ethnicity negatively affected electability?

Total

VM Respondents

NVM Respondents

Negative

20%

53%

9%

Positive

21%

16%

21%

Neutral

59%

32%

70%

Findings: Survey of Candidates

Most important factors determining election?
Elected Respondents

Length of incumbency/name recognition

21%

Good job previous term/hard working

21%

Strongest campaign/ lots of outreach to voters

16%

Community work

11%

Non Elected Respondents

Lack of financial resources

38%

Up against incumbent

20%

Up against well financed/ supported candidate

13%

Lack of media attention

10%

Findings: Survey of Candidates

Part of campaign strategy to identify geographical concentrations of
voters who historically voted with high degree of uniformity?
No, this was not a part of my campaign strategy

35%

Yes, I did somewhat engage in this

45%

Yes, I strongly engaged in this

23%

Not sure

0%

Perceived a relationship between ethnic clustering and voting

behaviour?
Yes - 89%
Tailored campaign materials to address ethnic clustering?
Yes - 62%
While campaigning did you hear support for electoral reform?
Yes - 63%

Findings: Survey of Candidates

Do you believe changes to municipal electoral system could
positively affect electability of visible minorities?
Yes

35%

No

37%

Somewhat

18%

Unsure

10%

Do you support electoral reform in principle?

Yes

24%

Interested in learning more

41%

No

27%

I do not have an opinion on this

7%

Findings: Survey of Candidates

Types of electoral reform most supported?
Proportional representation/not first past post
Term limits
Ranked ballot
Permanent resident voting rights
Lower spending limits

Recommendations
Reduce power of incumbency
Public financing
Tax credits for donations
Campaign training and mentorship
Party system
Enhanced civic and public education
Improved media coverage of non-incumbents
Allow permanent residents municipal voting rights
Establish electoral reform commission