Chng 4

PHN TCH PHNG N

THEO SUT THU LI
Nguyn Ngc Bnh Phng
nnbphuong@hcmut.edu.vn

Khoa Qun l Cng nghip

i hc Bch Khoa TP.HCM

Ni dung
1. Sut thu li ni ti (IRR) ca d n
2. So snh cc phng n theo IRR
3. Bn cht ca IRR
4. So snh phng php PW v IRR

Sut thu li ni ti (IRR) ca d n

PHNG PHP
PHN TCH
SO SNH PA

Gi tr tng ng
(Equivalent Worth)

Gi tr hin ti
(Present Worth PW)

Sut thu li
(Rates of Return)

Chng 3

T s li ch/chi
ph (Benefit Cost
Ratio)

Chng 5

Gi tr tng lai
(Future Worth FW)
Gi tr hng nm
(Annual Worth AW)

Phng php dng tin t chit gim

(Discounted Cash-Flow Methods)
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Sut thu li ni ti (IRR) ca d n

z Cc ch s sut thu li
zSut thu li ni ti (IRR)
zSut thu li ngoi lai
zSut thu li ti u t tng minh
z

Tham kho
mc 4.6

Sut thu li ni ti (IRR) ca d n

Sut thu li ni ti (Internal Rate of Return IRR) l mc li sut m nu dng lm h s chit
tnh quy i dng tin t ca d n th gi tr
hin ti ca thu nhp PWR s cn bng vi gi tr
hin ti ca chi ph PWC.
PWR = PWC hay PWR - PWC = 0
FWR = FWC hay FWR - FWC = 0
AWR = AWC hay AWR - AWC = 0

Sut thu li ni ti (IRR) ca d n

Cc cch tnh IRR (p dng cho d n u t c
hm PW(i) gim):
1. Tnh trc tip bng tay (ch p dng cho d
n c TKPT 2 nm hoc dng tin ch xut
hin ti 2 thi im)
2. S dng phng php ni suy
3. S dng my tnh b ti
(c tnh nng gii phng trnh, v d: Casio
fx750MS)
4. S dng phn mm ti chnh (v d: hm
IRR trong Microsoft Excel)
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Sut thu li ni ti (IRR) ca d n

Cch 1: Tnh trc tip bng tay:
Tm IRR?
N
D n A
0

-$1.000

+ $1.500

PW(i*) = 0
-1000 + 1500(P/F,i*,4)= 0
- 1000 + 1500 / (1+i*)4 = 0
i* = 10,67%
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Sut thu li ni ti (IRR) ca d n

Cch 1: Tnh trc tip bng tay:
Tm IRR?
N
D n B
0

-$2.000

+ $1.300

+$1.500

PW(i*) = 0
-2000 + 1300/(1+i*) + 1500/(1+i*)2 = 0
t X = 1/(1+i*)
-2000 + 1300X + 1500X2 = 0
X1 = 0,8 hoc X2=-1,667
i*1 = 25% hoc i*2 = -160%
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Sut thu li ni ti (IRR) ca d n

Cch 2: S dng phng php ni suy:
B1: Chn gi tr i1 sao cho PW(i1) > 0
B2: Chn gi tr i2 sao cho PW(i2) < 0
B3: Tnh i* gn ng bng cng thc: (i* nm gia i1 v i2)
i* = i1 + (i2-i1) x [PW(i1) / (PW(i1) PW(i2))]
B4: Th li bng cch th i* vo phng trnh PW(i*)=0
Ghi ch: Nn chn i2 i1 = 1%

Sut thu li ni ti (IRR) ca d n

Cch 2: S dng phng php ni suy:
V d 4.1 (trang 85)
S liu ban u
Chi ph v thu nhp
(triu ng)
u t ban u
Chi ph hng nm
Thu nhp hng nm
Gi tr cn li
Tui th (nm)
Xc nh

D n A

10
2,2
5
2
5
IRR?
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Sut thu li ni ti (IRR) ca d n

AR = 5
0
P = 10

SV = 2

AC = 2,2

PW(i) = (5 2,2)(P/A, i, 5) + 2(P/F, i, 5) 10 = 0

S dng phng php ni suy:
Nu i1 = 15% th PW(15%) = 380.000
Nu i2 = 20% th PW(20%) = -822.000
i* = 15% + (20% - 15%) * 380.000 = 16,5%
380.000 - (-822.000)
Vy: IRR = 16,5% nm
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Sut thu li ni ti (IRR) ca d n

Quy tc chung:
Khi sut thu li ni ti (IRR) khng nh hn sut
thu li ti thiu chp nhn c (Minimum
Acceptable Rate of Return MARR) th c hi u
t ng gi v mt kinh t
9IRR >= MARR : PW >= 0 (chp nhn d n)
9IRR < MARR : PW < 0 (khng chp nhn d n)

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So snh cc PA theo IRR

Nguyn tc phn tch theo gia s:
1) So snh d n c vn u t ban u ln hn (B)
vi PA c vn u t ban u nh hn (A) ch
khi PA c u t nh hn l ng gi (IRRA
MARR)
2) Chn PA c vn u t ban u ln hn nu gia
s vn u t l ng gi (IRRU MARR)

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So snh cc PA theo IRR

Cc bc tnh IRRU:
1. Lp dng tin tng thm gia 2 d n bng
cch ly dng tin c chi ph u t ln hn (B)
tr dng tin c chi ph u t thp hn (A).
2. Tnh IRRB-A ca dng tin tng thm (B-A)
3. Quy tc chn:
9 IRRB-A >= MARR: chn B
9 IRRB-A < MARR: chn A

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So snh cc PA theo IRR

V d p dng phng php gia s:
N
0
1
IRR
PW (10%)

A
-$1.000
+$2.000
100%
$818

B
-$5.000
$7.000
40%
$1.364

B-A
-$4.000
+$5.000
25%
$546

MARR=10%

Gii thch: Nu u t thm $4.000 vo d n B,

d n s to ra thm dng tin vo l $5.000.
Sut thu li ca vic u t thm $4.000 ny vo
d n B l 25% (>MARR=10%)
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So snh cc PA theo IRR

Th tc so snh nhiu phng n
9 B1: Xp cc PA theo th t tng dn vn u t: A,B,C
9 B2: Xem PA s 0 (PA khng thc hin u t) nh l PA c th. Xem
PA A l PA thay th. Tnh IRR khi chuyn t PA 0 A. Nu cc PA ch
c chi ph m khng c thu nhp: dng A l PA c th, B l PA thay
th. Chuyn sang bc 4.
9 B3: Nu IRRA < MARR, gt b A v tnh IRRB cho PA B tip theo. Lp li
bc ny cho n khi c mt PA X no m IRRX MARR. PA ny tr
thnh phng n c th v PA c u t ln hn k tip l PA thay
th.
9 B4: Xc nh chui dng tin t gia s gia cp PA c th v thay th.
9 B5: Tnh IRR ca chui dng tin t gia s
9 B6: Nu IRR > MARR, gt b PA c th v ly PA thay th lm PA
c th. Ngc li gt b PA thay th v ly PA tip sau lm PA thay
th mi.
9 B7: Lp li bc (4) n (6) cho n khi ch cn 1 PA. l PA c
chn.
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So snh cc PA theo IRR

V d 4.7 (trang 94)
So snh cc PA loi tr nhau sau y, tm PA c li nht theo phng
php da trn IRR, vi MARR=18%. Gi s TTKT cc PA bng nhau.
Chi ph v thu
nhp (triu )
u t ban u
Thu nhp rng
Gi tr cn li

Cc phng n
A

1.000
150
1.000

1.500
375
1.500

2.500
500
2.500

4.000
925
4.000

5.000
1125
5.000

7.000
1.425
7.000

U T BAN U = GI TR CN LI IRR = THU NHP RNG/U T BAN U

Gia s

0 A

1.000
u t ban u
150
Thu nhp rng
15%
IRR
ng gi
Khng 0
Kt lun

0 B

BC

BD

DE

EF

1.500
375
25%

1.000
125
12,5%

2.500
550
22%

1.000
200
20%

2.000
300
15%

Khng B C D

C E

Khng E

C B

Chn PA E

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Bn cht ca IRR
IRR l sut thu li ca mt d n vi gi thit l
cc dng thu nhp rng dng (CFt) u c
em u t li vi sut thu li lm cho PWR =
PWC hay AWR = AWC
Ch s IRR ca mt d n u t khng phi l
sut thu li ca vn u t ban u, m l sut
thu li tnh theo cc kt s cn li ca vn
u t u cc thi on.

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So snh phng php PW v IRR

Phng php PW v IRR u dn n mt kt
lun khi la chn phng n u t.
V l thuyt: Phng php PW u th hn do
IRR s khng tnh c trong trng hp dng
tin i du nhiu ln.
V thc t: Phng php IRR c a chung
hn do phng php ny cung cp mt cch trc
quan v s liu t sut thu li ca phng n.

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HT CHNG 4

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