Overall I think Hillary Clinton's reelection is basically assured for three reasons:

1: By the time 2020 has come around, the next recession will have likely come...
and past. The important thing for candidates isn't the state of the economy over the
last 4 years, its the change in the economy over the last 6 months. Reagan took
office during a recession, had it promptly become a double dip recession peaking in
the middle of his term, and had recovered back to merely being a recession by the
end... but that 'recovery' helped assure his reelection.
2: The GOP has a long trend of nominating the runner-up of the last primary
(Reagan, Bush Sr, Dole, McCain, Romney) , unless the runner-up is totally
unacceptable (Buchanan, Santorum). With the rightward turn in the party, Ted Cruz
could probably squeeze in to the former, and it'll be easy for him to make the
argument that the loss in 2016 was because the establishment refused to back a
True Conservative and let some random buffoon be nominated. He'll then go on to a
crushing defeat because Goldwater-seque conservatism remains unacceptable to
the public.
3: Incumbents win 75% or so of the time. Incumbency is kind of a huge advantage.
That's assuming that the GOP doesn't come apart following their 2016 defeat, or
nominate a narrow GOP bloc candidate like Huckabee or Paul.