LESSON

Predicting Population Growth

Guiding Question: How might the human populations growth rate
change in the future?

Describe total fertility rates and replacement fertility.

Explain how the age structure and sex ratio of a
population define its potential for growth.
Describe the demographic transition.
Discuss social factors that affect population growth.

8.2 LESSON PLAN PREVIEW

Differentiated Instruction
English language learners distinguish between total fertility
rate and replacement fertility.
Inquiry A simple demonstration helps students visualize
the demographic transitions
affect on population growth.
Real World Students discuss
social factors that affect a
nations population growth
and resource use.

8.2 RESOURCES
In Your Neighborhood Activity,
Using Census Data Paper and Pencil
Activity, Interpreting Age Structure
Graph It, Age Pyramids and Population Growth Lesson 8.2 Worksheets
Lesson 8.2 Assessment Chapter 8
Overview Presentation

Reading Strategy Before you read, make an outline using

the blue and green headings in this lesson. As you read, fill in
key phrases or sentences about each heading.
Vocabulary total fertility rate, replacement fertility,
demographic transition

THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE sharing Earth and its resources is

getting bigger and bigger by the minute. Right now, assuming moderate population growth, scientists project that the human population may
increase to more than 9 billion people by 2050. Some scientists project
that it could reach 10.5 billion people by then! Thats a lot of peopleand
a big difference in projections. So, what information do demographers
use to make these predictions?

Fertility Rate
Fertility rate helps demographers predict the rates at which
populations will grow in the future.
At the most basic level, the factors that affect human population growth
are the same as those that affect the populations of other organisms.
Births add individuals to the global population and deaths remove them.
Immigration and emigration affect the population size of particular
regions. To get a clear picture of a populations potential for growth,
demographers look at many characteristics of a particular population.

GUIDING QUESTION
FOCUS Have students form small
groups. Ask each group to develop a
prediction of how the human population growth rate might change in
the next 100 years. Have each group
share its prediction and two statements supporting its prediction
with the class. Use students predictions to launch a class discussion on
information demographers use to
predict population growth rates.

234 Lesson 2

(a)

Figure 7 Collecting Data

Around the world, demographers
collect data in similar ways, such as
these census workers in Ecuador
(a) and the United States (b).

(b)

Trends in Chinas Population Growth

Measure

1950

1970

1990

2007

Total fertility rate

5.8

5.8

2.2

1.6

Rate of natural
population increase
(% per year)

1.9

2.6

1.4

0.5

Doubling time (years)

Population (billions)

37
0.55

27
0.83

50
1.14

140

Figure 8 Trends in China The data show that the

population growth rate in China has declined since
the establishment of the one-child policy. Natural
population increase refers to the balance of births
and deaths, but does not include changes due to
immigration or emigration. Interpret Tables Do the
data in this table indicate that Chinas population size
is decreasing?

1.32

Data from China Population Information and Research Center; and Population
Reference Bureau. 2007. 2007 World population data sheet.

Total Fertility Rate One key statistic that demographers examine is

total fertility rate. The average number of children a female member of a

population has during her lifetime is the populations total fertility rate.
Various factors influence total fertility rate. Historically, people tended
to have many children to ensure that at least some would survive childhood. On farms, people also had more children so that they had help with
farm work. And, as parents got older, they could rely on their children to
support them.
Recently, total fertility rates have started to drop in many nations,
which indicates that most women are having fewer children. There are
many reasons for this trend. In China the trend can be partly attributed
to the one-child policy (Figure 8). In many other nations, parents feel
less pressure to have many children because almost all children survive
childhood. Also, many governments now have programs to help support
older adults. Because every child requires food, clothing, and shelter, parents may feel that they can better provide for smaller families. However,
although fertility rates are dropping, its important to remember that the
human population is still increasing.

ANSWERS

Figure 8 No, the growth rate is decreasing, but not the population size.
What Do You Think? Answers will
vary, but should reflect an understanding of the consequences of
below-replacement fertility rates,
such as a reduced work force.

What Do
you think?

Replacement Fertility The total fertility rate for a nation that would

keep its population size stable is called replacement fertility. This rate differs from nation to nation depending on its death rate. In many nations,
the replacement fertility is about 2.1. If a nations total fertility rate climbs
above 2.1, then the population will most likely increase over time. If it
falls below 2.1, then the population will most likely decrease over time. As
of 2009, seventy-two nations had fallen below the total fertility rate of 2.1.
In nations that have a higher than average death rate, replacement fertility
is greater than 2.1.

Age Structure and Sex Ratios

Age structure and sex ratios define a populations potential
for growth.
Total fertility rate helps demographers predict if a populations size will
increase, decrease, or stay the same. But the statistic does not tell the
whole story. Age structure and sex ratios can also help demographers
predict how a population might change.

What Do
you think?
In the United States, Canada, and
many European nations, the total
fertility rate has fallen below the
replacement rate. What economic
and social consequences do you
think might result from belowreplacement fertility rates?
Human Population 235

Age Structure Populations consist of individuals of different ages. Age

structure describes the relative numbers of organisms of each age within
a population and is often represented by a graph called an age structure
diagram. Age structure diagrams also show how many males and females
there are in each age group.
Age structure shows the proportion of individuals currently of reproductive age, and those who could reproduce in the future. This information helps demographers predict how the size of a population will change
over time. A population with many young people compared to older people could likely experience rapid population growth as the young people
mature and have children. A population with fewer younger people will
likely decrease in the future.
Look at the age structure diagrams for Canada and Madagascar shown
in Figure 9. The pyramid shape of Madagascars diagram indicates that
it has a greater population growth rate than Canada. In fact, its annual
growth rate is 2.9 percent, while Canadas is only 0.4 percent.
The pattern of population aging seen in Canada is occurring in many
nations, including the United States. Older populations present new challenges for many nations, as increasing numbers of older people require
the care and financial assistance of relatively fewer working-age citizens.
But, healthy older citizens can also be very productive as volunteers in
their communities and caregivers to grandchildren. Nations undergoing
rapid growth, such as Madagascar, face different challenges as they try to
provide education, roads, and other resources to support a rapidly growing population.

ANSWERS

Reading Checkpoint Chinas age

structure graph would likely look
more like Canadas because Chinas
growth rate has slowed.
Quick Lab
1. The Hispanic or Latino population,
the shape of the age structure
graph indicates greater projected
growth.
2. Yes; by comparing the proportion
of reproductive-age women and
the number of children in each
age structure diagram, you could
compare the total fertility rates of
the two populations.
3. Hispanic or Latino population:
39%; white population: 25%. This
indicates that the Hispanic or
Latino population should grow at
a greater rate.
Figure 9 Age Structure Diagrams
Canadas age structure is relatively
balanced. This indicates that there will
be fewer people of reproductive age in
future decades than there are now. In
Madagascar, however, there are many
more young people than older people.

Reading
Checkpoint

Age Pyramids and

Population Growth

 o you think that an age structure diagram representing

D
Chinas population would look more like Canadas or more
like Madagascars? Explain.

Age Structure of Canada in 2010

Pre-reproductive age
Post-reproductive age

Male

Reproductive age

Pre-reproductive age
Post-reproductive age

Female

70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0

Age

Age

100
90
80

Age Structure of Madagascar in 2010

Population (millions)
Data from U.N. Population Division

236 Lesson 2

Male

100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2

Reproductive age

Female

Population (millions)

Build and Compare Age

Structure Diagrams
Although the United States population as a whole is aging, not every
subset of the population is following the same pattern. The data in
the table are from the 2000 U.S.
Census. Use the data to make age
structure diagrams for these two
populations. Then use the diagrams
to answer the questions.
1. Predict Which of these two
populations will likely grow at
the greater rate over the next
thirty years? Explain.
2. Interpret Diagrams Could you
use age structure diagrams to
compare total fertility rates of
two populations? Explain.
3. Calculate Calculate the percentage of the white population and the Hispanic or Latino
population that was younger
than 20 years old in 2000. Does
your answer follow the prediction you made in Question 1?
Explain.
MATH SUPPORT For help
calculating with percentages,
see the Math Handbook.

Population Size of Two Subgroups in the U.S.

Age

White
Male

White
Female

Hispanic or
Latino Male

Hispanic or
Latino Female

Under 5

5,747,742

5,446,604

1,900,431

1,817,543

59

6,321,695

5,982,208

1,851,885

1,771,795

1014

6,623,228

6,259,312

1,617,185

1,546,227

1519

6,530,937

6,228,997

1,688,556

1,483,090

2024

5,865,075

5,729,667

1,875,139

1,534,288

2529

6,038,628

5,952,235

1,826,146

1,559,188

3034

6,723,177

6,642,233

1,668,064

1,456,837

3539

7,835,996

7,829,977

1,474,462

1,350,696

4044

8,058,013

8,077,349

1,178,548

1,125,604

4549

7,410,884

7,497,327

886,695

888,473

5054

6,669,501

6,809,448

664,236

696,699

5559

5,151,858

5,393,811

456,165

503,868

6064

4,079,327

4,402,685

347,409

402,998

6569

3,578,792

4,072,035

268,184

331,169

7074

3,267,502

4,060,120

205,691

271,575

7579

2,603,467

3,703,906

135,463

191,263

8084

1,597,046

2,687,860

67,919

111,619

85 and over

1,054,863

2,619,269

49,617

101,091

95,157,731

99,395,043

18,161,795

17,144,023

Total

Source: U.S. Census 2000

Sex Ratios Age structure diagrams also show the sex ratio for each age

group. Sex ratio is the number of males compared to females in a population. At birth, the naturally occurring sex ratio of humans has slightly more
males. For every 100 females born, about 106 males are born (sex ratio of
1.06 to 1). This phenomenon may be an evolutionary adaptation because
males are slightly more likely to die during any given year of life. Therefore,
having more male children in a population tends to ensure that the sex
ratio is about equal when they reach reproductive age.
Human activities can skew the sex ratio one way or another. Some
regions may have more females than males because many males emigrate
to find work. Other areas may have more males than females. For example, in a culture that values sons more than daughters, daughters may not
be given the same quality of care.
Human Population 237

The Demographic Transition

The demographic transition may explain the reason that some
industrialized nations have experienced a large drop in birthrates
and death rates.
In nations with good sanitation, effective healthcare, and reliable food
supplies, people are living longer lives. In fact, over the past half-century,
worldwide average life expectancy has increased from 46 to 68 years.
Also, infant mortality rates have fallen in many regions. Societies going
through these changes are generally those that have undergone the shift
from rural life to urban life and industrialization, and that have generated
personal wealth for their citizens.
To make sense of these trends, demographers use a concept called
the demographic transition. The demographic transition is a model that
explains the change from high birthrates and death rates to a condition of
low birthrates and death rates. A demographic transition is the result of
economic growth that has led to social changes. As shown in Figure 10,
the demographic transition is a four-stage process.
Figure 10 Demographic
Transition During the demographic

Demographic Transition

transition, birthrates and death

rates start high. Death rates fall first,
followed by birthrates.

Pre-industrial
stage

Transitional
stage

Growth rate

Birthrate and
death rate
are high

Birthrate

Population
increase

Post-industrial
stage

Birthrate declines
due to increased
opportunities for
women and access
to birth control

Birthrate and
death rate
are low

at
hr
ate

De

Death rate
declines due
to increased
food production
and improved
medical care

Industrial
stage

Time
Adapted from Kent, M.M. and K.A. Crews. 1990. World population: Fundamentals of growth. Population
Reference Bureau.

The Pre-Industrial Stage The first stage, or the pre-industrial stage,

is characterized by conditions that have defined most of human history.

For pre-industrial societies, both death rates and birthrates are high.
Death rates are high because of widespread disease, poor medical care,
and unreliable food and water supplies. Birthrates are high because
people want larger families or they dont have access to family planning
methods. Infant mortality is likely to be high during this stage, and having many children increases the chance that some of them will survive.
Populations in the pre-industrial stage are not likely to experience much
growth. This may explain why the human population was relatively stable
until the Industrial Revolution.

238 Lesson 2

The Transitional Stage Industrialization starts the transitional stage

of the demographic transition. In this stage, death rates decline as food
production increases and medical care improves. Because people have not
adjusted to the new economic and social conditions, birthrates remain
high. Population growth increases because births exceed deaths.
The Industrial Stage The third stage in the demographic transition is

the industrial stage. Industrialization increases job opportunities outside

the home, particularly for women. Couples may choose to have fewer
children in part because there is less fear of losing them to disease or
famine. Birthrates fall, closing the gap with death rates. In turn, the rate of
population growth also falls.

BIG QUESTION
How does the human population
affect the environment?
Application After students have
read the information about the four
stages of the demographic transition, refer them back to the Big
Question. Discuss each of the four
stages of the demographic transition in turn. For each, have students
describe how population trends associated with that stage would affect
the environment.

The Post-Industrial Stage In the final stage, the post-industrial stage,

both birthrates and death rates fall to low and stable levels. Population
sizes stabilize or decline slightly but are much higher than they were at
the pre-industrial stage. The society enjoys the benefits of industrialization without the threat of runaway population growth.
The demographic transition has occurred in many nations over the
past 200 to 300 years. For example, many European nations, the United
States, Canada, and Japan have all undergone this transition. But social
scientists cannot predict whether every nation will eventually follow the
same pattern.
Reading
Checkpoint

Briefly describe the four stages of the demographic transition.

ANSWERS

Reading Checkpoint Check that

students have accurately described
the characteristics of the pre-industrial stage, transitional stage,
industrial stage, and the postindustrial stage.

(a)
(b)

Figure 11 Japan and India

(a) Japan has already gone through
the demographic transition, which
means that many couples have only
one or two children. (b) No one
knows if population growth in other
nations, such as India, will follow the
demographic transition pattern.
Human Population 239

Social Factors
Social factors, such as wealth and education, affect a nations
population growth and its resource use.
Predicting population growth is not just a numbers game. People live in
complex societies that influence population growth and their impact on
the environment. Factors such as poverty, wealth, and education levels
affect population size.
Distribution of World Population

Global population (billions)

Developing nations
Developed nations

8
6
4
2
0
1950

1975

2000
Year

2025

2050

Data from U.N. Population Division.

Figure 12 Distribution of Future

Growth Almost all of the next 1 billion people

added to Earths population will reside in less

developed, poorer parts of the world. The dashed
lines indicate projected future trends.

Developing Nations The term developing nation refers

to nations with moderate or low income and includes China
and Mexico as well as all the nations of Africa, Central
America, South America, Indonesia, and eastern Europe.
Worldwide, more people live in developing nations than live
in developed nations. Developed nations are high-income
nations including the United States, Canada, western
European nations, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, and some
Arab states.
Compared to developed nations, developing nations tend
to have higher fertility rates, infant mortality rates, and death
rates. Life expectancy is also typically lower. In some areas,
crowded conditions, poor sanitation, poor nutrition, and
lack of health education lead to higher frequency of diseases
such as AIDS and tuberculosis that can spread from person
to person.
Despite these difficulties, the population growth of
developing nations as a whole surpasses population growth
in developed nations as shown in Figure 12. This affects
distribution of people on the planet. In 1950, 68 percent of
the worlds population lived in developing nations. By 2009,
82 percent of the worlds population lived in these nations.
Population growth in developing regions presents many
challenges. Will there be enough jobs for people to support
themselves? Will there be enough resources to support a
quickly growing population?

Many developing nations experiencing rapid

population growth have programs to encourage citizens to have smaller
families. Chinas program is an extreme example. Other rapidly growing nations have implemented less restrictive programs. For example,
Thailand relies on an education-based approach to family planning. In
the 1960s, Thailands growth rate was about 3 percent. Now it is about
0.6 percent.
In 1994, the United Nations hosted a conference in Cairo on population and development. The conference urged governments to offer better
education and healthcare and to address social needs that influence
population size. Since then Brazil, Mexico, Iran, Cuba, and other nations
have instituted programs that involve economic incentives, education,
free contraception, and reproductive healthcare.

National Policies

240 Lesson 2

Figure 13 Uneven
Consumption Rates The

amount of resources needed to

supply a food market is a sign
of uneven consumption rates.
(a) The U.S. market needs fossil
fuels for shipping, materials for
packaging, and electricity that
the (b) Sengalese market does
not. Although the United States
does have open-air markets where
locally grown produce is sold, they
are not common.

(a)

(b)

Better educational opportunities for women

are closely tied to declining fertility rates. Studies show that in societies
in which women are freer to decide whether and when to have children,
fertility rates fall. Many social scientists and policymakers recognize that
for population growth to slow and stabilize, women need to achieve equal
education and power with men. But there is a long way to go. Over two
thirds of the worlds people who cannot read and 60 percent of those living in poverty are women.

Empowering Women

Developed Nations Beyond the actual number of people, its also

important to consider the amount of resources a particular population uses and the amount of waste it produces. Just as population size is
distributed unevenly around the globe, so are wealth and rate of resource
consumption. As explained in Figure 13, people in nations such as the
United States typically use far more resources compared to people in
developing nations. In this sense, the addition of one American has as
much environmental impact as the addition of five Chinese or thirteen
Pakistanis. As more and more nations become industrialized, whether or
not they go through the demographic transition, their consumption rates
will also rise.

ANSWERS

Lesson 2 Assessment
1. Less than; replacement fertility is
2.1. Declining populations likely
have a TFR that is less than 2.1.
2. Age structure shows the number
of people who are at or near reproductive age.
3. Yes; it is likely in the transitional
stage of the demographic transition in which death rates drop but
birthrates remain high.
4. Poorer societies tend to have
higher population growth rates
than wealthier ones.
5. Increase; the total fertility rate is
likely above the replacement level
and immigrants are joining the
population. A balanced age structure shows that there are some
people who will be at reproductive
age currently or in the near future.

2
1. Infer Assuming there is no emigration, would you
expect the total fertility rate of a declining population to be more or less than 2.1? . Explain.
2. Explain How does age structure help us predict
population growth?
3. Apply Concepts A population that is industrialized is experiencing a drop in death rates. However,
the birthrate remains high. Could it be undergoing
the demographic transition? Explain.

4. Review How does population growth compare

between poorer and wealthier societies?
A nation has a total
5.
fertility rate of 2.5. The age structure of this population is fairly balanced. Recently people from a
neighboring nation have been arriving in masses
to escape a civil war. Do you think this population
will likely increase or decrease in the near future?
Explain your answer.
Human Population 241