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EDMA310 | Probability |
Year Level: 5
Term: 4
Week: 5
Date: 27/10/15
Proficiency strand(s):
Understanding Make connections between the theoretical and experimental outcomes in probability experiments.
Probability experiments are not influenced by
Students will work towards developing an understanding of how their outcomes reflect their experimental trials and
how they have used concrete materials and/or technology to make sense of their final results. Students will further
misconceptions such as individuals luck,
emphasise their understanding of their experimental results by representing them in common fractions.
favourite colour, gamblers fallacy, sample
size, or the number of trials in the experiment, Reasoning Develop the capacity to think and explain results logically by analysing, proving, evaluating, inferring,
and justifying the results of an experiment both independently and with their peers. When students are reasoning in
each trial is independent of the last.
probability they are able to interpret their results, explain how they have reached their final conclusion, and explain to
their peers the steps they took whilst exploring the task.
Key vocabulary
Key skills to develop and practise
Key equipment / resources:
Probability De Klerk (2007) The likelihood of
Using the correct terminology when referring to the
- Interactive
an event happening (p. 102)
Focus area 2.5
Whiteboard
probability of an outcome or event in an experiment
Sample space: The set of all possible outcomes
- Release the
occurring. E.g. If I were to toss a coin once there is an
of that experiment. The sample space of
prisoner board game and 12 counters
even chance of the coin landing on the head/ or tail side.
experiment 1 is: {head, tail}
- 50 cent coins
EDMA310 | Probability |
Sample size
Number of trials
Equiprobability
Luck (bias)
Gamblers Fallacy
Awareness Fallacy
Life Experience
A game is fair if the winner cannot be predetermined
Favourite colour/ number does better than others
Learning
strategies/
skills
Analysing
Checking
Classifying
Co-operating
Considering options
Designing
Elaborating
MATHEMATI
CAL
FOCUS
(what you want the
children to come to
understand as a
result of this lesson
short, succinct
statement)
Session 1
At the
conclusion of
this lesson
students will
come to
Estimating
Explaining
Generalising
Hypothesising
Inferring
Interpreting
Justifying
TUNING IN
INVESTIGATIONS SESSION
(INDEPENDENT LEARNING)
(extended opportunity for students to work in
pairs, small groups or individually. Time for
teacher to probe childrens thinking or work with
a small group for part of the time and to also
conduct roving conferences)
Two workstations
Students will use their maths
writers notebooks and concrete
materials such as unfix blocks,
counters, lattice diagrams, and
lists to record their results
following the procedure modelled
in tuning in. {See appendix 1 for
5
Performing
Persuading
Planning
Predicting
Presenting
Providing
feedback
Questioning
Reading
Recognising bias
Reflecting
Reporting
Responding
Restating
Revising
Seeing patterns
Selecting information
Self-assessing
Sharing ideas
Summarising
Synthesising
Testing
Viewing
Visually representing
Working independently
Working to a timetable
ADAPTATIONS
ASSESSMENT
STRATEGIES
- Enabling prompt
(to allow those experiencing difficulty
to engage in active experiences
related to the initial goal task)
- Extending prompt
(questions that extend students
thinking on the initial task)
Game 1.
As a class come together to
discuss both games and look
at the results:
Enabling prompts
Game 1: Would you place
all six of your counters on
one particular cell
number?
Conduct informal
observation and make
notes whist roaming
around to each
workstation. (Choose
5-6 students to make
notes on)
EDMA310 | Probability |
understand
what equally
likely
experiments
are and
explore why
games of
chance are
independent of
each other,
and not
influenced by
luck.
Focus area
2.2 and 2.5
Chance experiment:
Selecting coloured teddies out of
a bag. (1 x red 1x blue, 1x
yellow, 1x green, 1x black)
{See appendix 2 for further
elaborations}
further elaborations}
Game 1. Release the prisoner
game mat, two six sided dice (per
pair) and twelve counters per
person, students explore the
game. {See appendix 3 for
further elaborations}
Game 2. Tossing one 50c coin,
and tossing two 50c coins in a
race to the top game {See
appendix 4 for further
elaborations} Students combine
with another pair to discuss their
mathematical argument, before
convincing and proving this
reason based on their results.
**For both experiments students
can record their results using a
frequency table** {see appendix
5 for an example.}
Session 2
At the
conclusion of
this lesson
students will
come to
understand
that in order
compare
results at the
completion of
the experiment
and know if an
experiment
has equally
likely
Game 2
(Highlight that outcomes
are independent of each
other)
- If a heads is flipped four
times in a row does that
mean that there is a
higher chance the next
coin flip will be a tail?
Create a whole class
discussion asking groups to
share one group of spinners
their group had been
discussing.
particular numbered
box? If so what was your
reasoning behind that?
Can a number be luckier
than another?
If this die had a different
colour on each side
instead of numbers
would you rearrange
your prisoners in their
cells or leave them as
you had them, why?
Focus
area 2.3
Focus
area 2.5
Enabling prompt
-
Collection of students
self-assessment
{See appendix 9 for
the student selfassessment}
Focus
area 2.3
Focus
area 2.2
and 2.5
EDMA310 | Probability |
spinners so that
Ethans chances of
winning a prize are
increased? How do
you know all of the
spinner combinations
have been found?
Does the number of
trials you do effect the
accuracy of results?
How can you prove
this?
Focus
area 2.5
Session 3
Focus
area 2.2
and 2.5
At the
conclusion of
this lesson
students will
come to
understand the
role of small
and large
sample size as
a way of
ascertaining
more reliable
results and
plot the
theoretical and
experimental
Open-ended task
Explore further how spinners are
used in probability through an
online resource called
adjustable spinner, as students
in lesson one believed that the
sample size didnt effect the
results.
https://illuminations.nctm.org/adj
ustablespinner/
Extending prompt
- If you were asked to
repeat this task and
collate data based on a
dice and spinner
difference of 1 would you
suspect similar outcomes
about the reliability of a
small and large sample
size? Explain your
thinking.
Enabling prompt
- Grouping the student
with a pair so they can
share ideas and
strategies.
Focus
area 2.5
Taking pictures of
students data
collection and data
representations writing
brief notes about the
following questions
{See appendix 13}
Focus
area 2.3
EDMA310 | Probability |
Session 4
At the
conclusion of
this lesson
students will
further explore
how fractions
are used in
probability
exploring
chance
statements.
Focus
area 2.2
and 2.5
Enabling Prompt:
Provide students with
concrete materials that
enable them to explore
the questions they
created and determine the
theoretical and
experimental probability,
rather than asking them to
work out their questions
by drawing pictures and
writing notes in their
journals.
Extending Prompt:
Explore the following
statements
The sample space is 8
what are all of the
possible outcomes?
Collect students
probability work books
as samples and mark
them against the
following rubric: {See
appendix 15}
Focus
area 2.3
EDMA310 | Probability |
Session 5
At the
conclusion of
this lesson
students will
come to
understand
more
thoroughly
how probability
outcomes lie
between zero
and one as
they represent
outcomes as
fractions.
Focus
area 2.2
2.5
Focus
area 2.5
Extending prompt
Is the probability of
choosing a blue and a red
marble in that order more
likely to occur more often
in a large or small sample
size? How can you prove
to your classmates that
your thinking is correct?
Enabling prompt
- Reduce the numbers
of marble jars
students must figure
out, and ask students
to consider which jar
they believe will give
them the best chance
at choosing out a blue
marble and why.
Focus
area 2.5
Focus
area 2.3
EDMA310 | Probability |
Appendices
Appendix 1:
Making a list of the sample space (Theoretical expected outcome) and Arguing the probability of the experiment using the probability continuum.
convince others of your argument using the outcomes recorded using systematic lists, organised table, tree diagram, or model (experimental outcome)
Analysing the results, and representing the resultant probability using fractions to prove to others your argument.
Appendix 2:
1. Determining how probable the experiment is This experiment has equally likely outcomes, as there is one teddy for each colour. This means that the blue teddy has an
equally likely chance of being pulled out of the bag at random.
2. Making a list of the sample space
1 Red 1/5
1 Blue 1/5
1 Yellow 1/5
1 Green 1/5
1 Black 1/5
= 5/5
Sample space = 5 (five different possible outcomes all with an equal chance of being selected)
Appendix 3: Release the prisoner game.
http://mathwire.com/games/ datagames.html
Students are to place their twelve counters in the cells, they may choose to spread them out, put them all in one, or have small groups in certain numbers (I am looking to see
what each students understanding of luck is). (Game board below)
- Two six sided dice are rolled the two values are added together and the value (for example 5, from 4+1) enables a person to take one prisoner out of their cell.
- The first person to release all prisoners wins.
- Students record their results used lists such as a frequency table.
(Game board)
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EDMA310 | Probability |
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EDMA310 | Probability |
Was the student able to express why each experiment had equal outcomes?
Did the student seek assistance from others? What were the types of questions they were asking?
Appendix 7:
- Identify the sample size.
- Helps us to make inferences based on the expected results.
- Analyse experimental results against the expected results,
- Make final judgments about the probability of the event occurring in the future and;
- prove to others why your argument was supported, or unsupported throughout the experiment.
Appendix 8.
Students explore the following open task related to spinners they are given below:
Focus
area 2.5
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EDMA310 | Probability |
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EDMA310 | Probability |
Appendix 11
http://www.craftnhome.com/number-spinners-for-maths.html
Appendix 12: Lattice diagram and further task description
Students explore this experiment and its outcomes after 5 spins, 15 spins, 30 spins, and after 50 spins and writing a short statement highlighting what happened in each sample size
trial.
Students then represent their results from each trial using concrete materials such as unfix cubes, Lego, bottle tops etc
Appendix 13: Questions for assessment
What diagram has the child used to represent the theoretical outcome
Is there mathematical argument relevant to the experiment?
In what ways have students been able to convince others and prove their mathematical statement is correct
what does the student understand about the influence of sample size on chance outcomes?
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EDMA310 | Probability |
Appendix 14: Students workbook
Task Accomplished
Substantial Progress
Some progress
Little progress
The student is able to state the theoretical expected outcome, lists the experimental outcomes, represents the
probabilities of the results using common fractions and shows a clear understanding of the relationship between the
theoretical and experimental outcomes.
The student is able to state the theoretical expected outcome, lists the experimental outcomes, represents the
probabilities of the results using common fractions and shows a clear understanding
Student is able to state the theoretical expected outcome and list the experimental outcomes using concrete
materials or visual representations, but does not represent the probabilities of those results using fractions.
Makes the correct decision to concretely display all possible outcomes in the sample space but requires substantial
assistance and enabling prompts to ascertain understanding about the link between the theoretical expected
outcomes and the experimental expected outcomes.
Records a series of outcomes and knows they are equally likely to occur but little evidence of the student using the
probability experiment checklist
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EDMA310 | Probability |
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Overall word count for the entire document including references: 5139
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EDMA310 | Probability |
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