HOW THE WORLD VIEWS BREXIT:

A Global Assessment on the UK Referendum

Political campaigns in the UK have often been run
on the platform of withdrawing from the European
Union. In 2014, the Independence Party, which is in
opposition to the European Union, became the
largest UK party in the European Parliament.
Though Prime Minister David Cameron fought back
against the call in 2012 for a referendum, the
promise of a vote by 2017 was a major part of his
re-election campaign. The vote, scheduled to take
place on June 23, 2016, will have a profound impact
on Europe and the rest of the world regardless of
the outcome. This was the subject of discussion at
the meeting of APCOs International Advisory
Council on May 5, 2016.
Sir Graham Watson, former member of the European Parliament from the UK, outlined three
phases of the Brexit debate, the first phase occurring after the UK general election in the
summer of 2015; the second phase when the campaigns for and against truly began to take off;
and the third phase beginning after local elections on May 5, 2016. Thus far it is apparent that
Prime Minister Cameron has succeeded in winning the intellectual case for Britain remaining in
the European Union, but this optimism is dependent upon his campaign going smoothly
between now and the referendum on June 23. He is helped by the fact that the opposition has
not made a compelling or cogent argument for how Britain would be better off outside the
European Union.
External factors must be considered, and the very real threat of those, such as ISIS, who would
like to cause chaos between now and the vote are simply unknown. Any type of terrorist event
inside of Europe would have a tremendous impact on the vote; and its worth noting that in the
immediate aftermath of the Brussels attacks, support in the UK for leaving jumped to 45
percent. And recent statements by the EU Commission recommending visa-free access for
Turkish tourists entering the European Union in exchange for Turkey assisting in keeping
migrants and refugees from Greece bolster the opposition. This decision is quite explosive in
Britain, where the main supporters of exiting the European Union are those concerned about
loose borders.
Another factor to consider are the demographics of the vote, which appear to be counter-logical
to a typical electorate. Older voters are more likely to support exiting the Union, while younger

voters are more likely to support staying. However, the propensity to vote is higher in the older
generation than it is in the younger, buttressing the movement to depart. In terms of the
education demographic, those with higher education levels are more likely to want to stay, and
the Prime Minister has the majority of intellectuals on his side. Those with a lower education
level and less experience travelling abroad the so-called losers from globalization are
angry with the government and find that their real incomes have not risen since the 1980s,
fueling their desire for Britain to depart.
President Barack Obamas recent visit to the UK, and his comments on the Brexit issue, were
generally viewed as helpful to the prime minister. President Obamas message that a British exit
would put them at the back of the queue for trade deals with the United States was very
effective. Simply having the president of the United States express his reasoned opinion in favor
of a united Europe appealed to some of those who might otherwise vote to depart. President
Obamas comments were very sensitive and have appeared to turn the debate in Prime Minister
Camerons favor. While some tabloids disparaged the comments as meddling in UK affairs,
most agreed that it provided important input.
Tim Roemer, former U.S. congressman and U.S. ambassador to India, commented on the
geopolitical and strategic reasons for Britain staying in the European Union. In terms of
terrorism, the response to recent attacks in France and Belgium, two countries very close to the
United States, demonstrates the importance of remaining together and staying unified in the
face of the global terrorist threat. To defeat terrorism, better sharing of intelligence and law
enforcement efforts are critically important. Additionally, any instability in Europe and NATO
would send ominous signals to those groups who prefer chaos. Economic instability resulting
from a British exit would likely lead to slower growth and increased unemployment in the UK
and across Europe. While President Obama emphasized hope that the Britain and European
Unions relationship would be eternally strong, the message was clearly delivered that the
United States would negotiate with Europe first on trade issues such as TTIP (and Britain would
move to the end of the queue.)

Britain is seen as the gateway to Europe for Indian businesses, with London viewed as
Indias bridge to Europe. - Tim Roemer, former U.S. ambassador to India

President Obama invested his personal time and capital in the Brexit question. He made trips to
London, where he spoke specifically to the British people about his views while remaining
politically sensitive to the delicate issue of British sovereignty. He later traveled to Hannover,
Germany, where he addressed the wider impact of a possible British exit from the European
Union on NATO, trade and immigration.
Turning to India, Ambassador Roemer noted that Britain is seen as the gateway to Europe for
Indian businesses, with London viewed as Indias bridge to Europe. The British influence on the

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Indian economy is significant: 800 Indian business are owned in Great Britain creating 110,000
jobs; India is the third largest foreign direct investor in Britain after the United States and
France; in 2014 Indian investment in Britain increased 64 percent, and; the Federation of Indian
Chambers of Commerce have warned that there will be great uncertainty within the
business/investment community if the UK left the European Union. The Brexit debate has
caused uncertainty and anxiety in India and there is a great deal of interest in what might
happen next. India is maintaining a careful position and watchful eye on the situation.
Chris Murck, former head of the American Chamber of Commerce in China, remarked that
generally the Chinese are opposed to Brexit. The European Union is their largest trading partner
and Britain is Chinas largest destination for foreign direct investment. Many Chinese companies
use London as the headquarters for their European operations. China has supported a
prosperous and united European Union, and while they have not actually campaigned against
Brexit, their opinion has been clear. From an economic point of view, a united Europe is much
easier for the Chinese to deal with as an export market. Britains exit from the European Union
would bring unwelcome uncertainty for the Chinese.
In sum, three takeaways from the discussion are:
1. The Brexit vote will be close, and a victory for either side will be narrow. Right now it
appears the momentum is against the opposition.
2. If the opposition wins on June 23, the United States has made it clear that it will
negotiate trade deals with Europe first, pushing Britain to the end of the queue.
3. A victory for the opposition would create tremendous uncertainty for the two most
populous and fastest growing economies in the world. The instability an exit would cause
in China and India would have major impact on the global economy.
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