(orden)

m
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25

(Precipitacin) (Log Precipitacin)

X (mm)
Y = Log X
Tr = (n+1)/m
78.00
1.8921
26.00
70.00
1.8451
13.00
60.00
1.7782
8.67
55.50
1.7443
6.50
55.00
1.7404
5.20
50.00
1.6990
4.33
45.00
1.6532
3.71
40.50
1.6075
3.25
38.00
1.5798
2.89
35.00
1.5441
2.60
33.00
1.5185
2.36
25.00
1.3979
2.17
20.00
1.3010
2.00
15.50
1.1903
1.86
12.00
1.0792
1.73
10.00
1.0000
1.63
9.50
0.9777
1.53
8.50
0.9294
1.44
8.00
0.9031
1.37
8.00
0.9031
1.30
8.00
0.9031
1.24
7.50
0.8751
1.18
7.40
0.8692
1.13
7.00
0.8451
1.08
7.00
0.8451
1.04

Ecuacin de prediccin :
y = u + (1/)*w
Tr (aos)

w (Factor de
frecuencia)

y = P (mm)

2
5
10
25
50
100

0.37
1.50
2.25
3.20
3.90
4.60

18.97
86.17
130.78
187.28
228.91
270.54

m (Orden) P(X) = m/(n+1)

1
3.8462
2
7.6923
3
11.5385
4
15.3846
5
19.2308

X (mm)
7.00
7.00
7.40
7.50
8.00

90
80
70
60
50

90
80

6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25

23.0769
26.9231
30.7692
34.6154
38.4615
42.3077
46.1538
50.0000
53.8462
57.6923
61.5385
65.3846
69.2308
73.0769
76.9231
80.7692
84.6154
88.4615
92.3077
96.1538

8.00
8.00
8.50
9.50
10.00
12.00
15.50
20.00
25.00
33.00
35.00
38.00
40.50
45.00
50.00
55.00
55.50
60.00
70.00
78.00

70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0

VALORES PARA LA BONDAD DE AJUSTE

84.00
51.1999
Xx + S =
50.00
28.5360
Xx =
16.00
5.8721
Xx - S =

MTODOS ESTADSTICOS
1000

Preciitacin (mm)

100

10

1
1

10
Perodo de Retorno (Tr) en aos
Gumbel Tipo I

N de datos =
Desviacin estndar x :
Desviacin estndar y :

Registros Histricos

25
22.6639
0.3811

28.5360
Promedio Xx =
Parmetro de dispersin (1/) : 59.4730
Parmetro Yn (Ver tabla N1) :
0.5309
-3.0382
Moda (u) :

PRUEBA DE BONDAD DE AJUSTE - KOLMOGOROV SMIRNOV

90
80
70
60
50

100

90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1

10

100

Segn Weibull

Tr (aos)
2
5
10
25
50
100

F(Z)
0.500
0.800
0.900
0.960
0.980
0.990

F(Z)

Z
0.01
0.85
1.29
1.76
2.06
2.33

Pd (mm)
50.23
69.26
79.24
89.89
96.69
102.81

os

OV

100

100

(orden)
m
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25

(Precipitacin) (Log Precipitacin)

X (mm)
Y = Log X
Tr = (n+1)/m
78.00
1.8921
26.00
70.00
1.8451
13.00
60.00
1.7782
8.67
55.50
1.7443
6.50
55.00
1.7404
5.20
50.00
1.6990
4.33
45.00
1.6532
3.71
40.50
1.6075
3.25
38.00
1.5798
2.89
35.00
1.5441
2.60
33.00
1.5185
2.36
25.00
1.3979
2.17
20.00
1.3010
2.00
15.50
1.1903
1.86
12.00
1.0792
1.73
10.00
1.0000
1.63
9.50
0.9777
1.53
8.50
0.9294
1.44
8.00
0.9031
1.37
8.00
0.9031
1.30
8.00
0.9031
1.24
7.50
0.8751
1.18
7.40
0.8692
1.13
7.00
0.8451
1.08
7.00
0.8451
1.04

Tr (aos)

K (Depende del
Csy)

Log Y

Y (mm)

2
5
10
25
50
100

-0.02
0.84
1.29
1.79
2.11
2.40

1.30
1.62
1.80
1.99
2.11
2.22

19.88
42.02
62.69
96.62
128.17
165.75

(Y-Yy)3
0.203
0.158
0.106
0.085
0.083
0.061
0.042
0.028
0.021
0.014
0.010
0.001
0.000
-0.002
-0.011
-0.028
-0.035
-0.053
-0.065
-0.065
-0.065
-0.079
-0.083
-0.097
-0.097

MTODOS ESTADSTICOS
1000

100
Precipitacin (mm)
10

1
1

10
Perodo de retorno (Tr) en aos

Registros Histricos

Log Pearson Tipo III

Gumbel Tipo I

N de datos =
Desviacin estndar x :
Desviacin estndar y :
Promedio Xx =
Parmetro de dispersin (1/) :
Parmetro Yn (Ver tabla N1) :
Moda (u) :
Promedio Yy =
Sumatoria de (Y-Yy)3 =
CSy (Coefic. De Sesgo) =

Distribucin

100

Tr) en aos

el Tipo I

Distribucin Normal

25
22.6639
0.3811
28.5360
59.4730
0.5309
-3.0382
1.3049
0.130
0.106

Tr (aos)
K

2
-0.017

5
0.836

10
1.292

25
1.785

50
2.107

100
2.40