Om - Sandeep Raina b54!27!06 OM-I Week1 s10-11 Conceptual Exercise

om- sandeep raina b54-27-06_OM-I_Week1_s10-11_Conceptual Exercise
Question No 7 :
Chasewood Apartments
University
Enrolments
(thousands)
Semester
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
No. of units
Leased
7.2
6.3
6.7
7.0
6.9
6.4
7.1
6.7
291
228
252
265
270
240
288
246
FORECASTING MODEL
No. of units Leased

350
300
250
f(x) = 67.2384219554x - 196.3807890223

R = 0.9270350804
200
150
100
50
0
6.2
6.4
6.6
Next semester enrolments expected
6.8
7.0
7.2
6.6
Using Regression Equation we can find the

number of apartments leased "y" for 6.6k
expected enrolments
a.
b.
y=67.238x-196.38
247.3908
R2 explains the variation in y w.r.t. to variation in y w.r.t. variation

in x. Pvalue <0.05; hence the model is accurate and not random
R2=0.927
92.7%
247

Hence the forecasting model will predict
upto 92.7% the output
Variation% in the Model
Variation in No of units
Actual units leased can vary from
c.
7.30%
18.031
229-265 units
The model is quite accurate with Rsqaure=0.927 and Pvalue

<0.05. He is also now aware that he has sufficient 300 units,
more than max 265 required in the range and there will not be
any shortage.
Hence the model can be useful for the Manager to estimate the
no of units to be kept ready for lease and associated works
involved.
+-18 units
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
R Square
Adjusted R
Standard Er
Observatio
ANOVA
Regression
Residual
Total
Coefficients
Intercept
University
7.2
say
7.4
UMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
0.962827
0.927035
0.914874
6.574158
8
df
SS
MS
1 3294.683 3294.683
6 259.3173 43.21955
7
3554
F
Significance F
76.2313 0.000125
Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%
Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
-196.3808 52.32264 -3.753266 0.009473 -324.4097 -68.3519 -324.4097 -68.3519
67.23842 7.701066 8.731054 0.000125 48.39459 86.08225 48.39459 86.08225
per 95.0%

Q9
a large health maint organisation (HMO)
a)
Develop a moving average forecast for the past 10 months (Month 15-24) for AP
forecasts
Month
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
No of Lawsuits
16
25
16
24
38
46
54
52
51
56
67
45
53
61
55
69
63
57
48
55
61
51
56
53
AP=2months
57.0
58.0
62.0
66.0
60.0
53.0
52.0
58.0
56.0
54.0
Which AP results in the mean absolute forecasting error
Month
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
No of Lawsuits
55
69
63
57
48
55
61
51
AP=2months
forecast
57.0
58.0
62.0
66.0
60.0
52.5
51.5
58.0

23
24
56
53
56.0
53.5
total absolute deviation
mean absolute deviation
AP=6months results in lowest forecasting error as MAD is least compared to other Aps. (2,4
Hence this AP=2 is recommended as forecasting will be more accurate, deviation will be le
c
Using your recommended forecast.

FORECASTING FOR MONTH 25 WILL BE AS BELOW:
F25
=AVERAGE(C56:C61)
54.0
months (Month 15-24) for AP=2,4,6 and 8

forecasts
AP=4months AP=6months AP=8months
Chart
80
70
60
50
40
57.0
54.0
60.0
62.0
61.0
60.0
56.0
56.0
54.0
56.0
56.0
57.0
59.0
58.0
60.0
59.0
58.0
59.0
56.0
55.0
55.0
55.0
58.0
59.0
59.0
57.0
58.0
59.0
58.0
58.0
AP=4months
forecast
56.5
53.5
59.5
62.0
61.0
59.3
55.8
55.3
abs deviation
1.5
15.5
3.5
5.0
13.0
4.3
5.3
4.3
30
20
10
No of Lawsuits
AP=6months
forecast
abs deviati
55.5
0.5
56.2
12.8
58.3
4.7
57.7
0.7
59.7
11.7
58.8
3.8
57.8
3.2
58.8
7.8
10
AP=2months
error
abs deviation
2.0
11.0
1.0
9.0
12.0
2.5
9.5
7.0
AP=8months
forecast
54.9
55.0
57.1
58.6
58.8
56.4
57.6
58.6
11
12
AP=

0.0
0.5
54.5
5.5
53.8
55.8
2.3
2.8
57.3
5.7
55.8
54.7
0.2
1.7
47.0
4.7
57.4
57.5
least compared to other Aps. (2,4,8)

more accurate, deviation will be least from the actual outcome, so that Cindy is better prepared
ts
Chart Title
10
11
AP=2months
abs deviation
0.1
14.0
5.9
1.6
10.8
1.4
3.4
7.6
12
13
14
AP=4months
15
16
17
18
AP=6months
19
20
21
22
AP=8months
23
24

1.4
4.5
50.6
5.1
prepared

Ques no 13
A toy company ..
forecasts
a)
Month
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
Platic Pellets
Price/Pount
0.39
0.41
0.45
0.44
0.4
0.41
0.38
0.36
0.35
0.38
0.39
0.43
0.37
0.38
0.36
0.39
=0.1
=0.3
=0.5
0.390
0.390
0.392
0.398
0.402
0.402
0.403
0.400
0.396
0.392
0.391
0.390
0.394
0.392
0.391
0.388
0.390
0.390
0.396
0.412
0.421
0.414
0.413
0.403
0.390
0.378
0.379
0.382
0.396
0.389
0.386
0.378
0.390
0.390
0.400
0.425
0.433
0.416
0.413
0.397
0.378
0.364
0.372
0.381
0.406
0.388
0.384
0.372
forecasts
b)
Month
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
Platic Pellets
Price/Pount
0.41
0.38
0.36
0.35
0.38
0.39
0.43
0.37
0.38
0.36
0.39
Total Absolute deviation

Mean Absolute dev
=0.1
0.402
0.403
0.400
0.396
0.392
0.391
0.390
0.394
0.392
0.391
0.388
abs
deviation
0.02
0.04
0.05
0.01
0.00
0.04
0.02
0.01
0.03
0.00
0.23
0.023
=0.3
0.41
0.41
0.40
0.39
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.40
0.39
0.39
0.38
So =0.1 leads to leads to least mean absolute deviation of 0.023 from weeks
c)
For Computing F17 we will use the best alpha as 0.1

F17=
F16+(A16-F16)
0.39
forecasts
abs
deviation
0.03
0.04
0.04
0.00
0.01
0.05
0.03
0.01
0.03
0.01
0.25
0.025
=0.5
0.42
0.41
0.40
0.38
0.36
0.37
0.38
0.41
0.39
0.38
0.37
F2=
0.1
F1+(A1-F1)
0.39
0.3
0.5
F1+(A1-F1)
F1+(A1-F1)
0.39
0.39
abs
deviation
0.03
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.02
0.05
0.04
0.01
0.02
0.02
0.27
0.027
viation of 0.023 from weeks 7-16 better than alpha of 0.3 &0.5

Om - Sandeep Raina b54!27!06 OM-I Week1 s10-11 Conceptual Exercise

Uploaded by

Document Information

Original Title

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

Om - Sandeep Raina b54!27!06 OM-I Week1 s10-11 Conceptual Exercise

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

om- sandeep raina b54-27-06_OM-I_Week1_s10-11_Conceptual Exercise

No. of units Leased

f(x) = 67.2384219554x - 196.3807890223

Next semester enrolments expected

Using Regression Equation we can find the

R2 explains the variation in y w.r.t. to variation in y w.r.t. variation