Hypothesis Testing

MPZ 4230 Engineering Mathematics
The Open University of Sri Lanka
06/04/2014
M.P.Dhanushika
06/04/2014
M.P.Dhanushika
Hypothesis Testing
06/04/2014
M.P.Dhanushika
06/04/2014
M.P.Dhanushika
Lets get a help from Sam

Go with Sam for bowling
Sam says my long time average mark is 150
Over 3 games, Sams average score is 30.
Do you believe his statement my long time average mark is 150
Is he Dodgy / Liar?
06/04/2014
M.P.Dhanushika
Is he Dodgy?
You will probably not believe him.
Dont believe him
More likely to believe him
At what point between 30 and 140 Do you make the

decision to believe Sam or not?
06/04/2014
M.P.Dhanushika
Is he Dodgy?
What is your cut off score for Sam?
If Sam scores below 120 over 3 games
If Sam scores over 120 over 3 games
There is a claim Sams long time average mark is 150
Make assumption Claim is True

If sample outcome falls below a cut-off value
REJECT Claim
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M.P.Dhanushika
Probability Distribution of Bowling Scores

Under the assumption that claim is true
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M.P.Dhanushika

Rejection Region
c =120
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M.P.Dhanushika
Your Mum
Go with Mum for bowling
Mum says Honey you know Im excellent bowler so my long
time average mark is 150
Over 3 games, mums average score is 30.
Do you believe Mum statement my long time average

mark is 150?
Or
Do you call Mum is a Liar
06/04/2014
M.P.Dhanushika
Your Mum
What if you want to be more sure that the claim is false
before rejecting it?
Choose LOWER VALUE for a cut-off mark
For Sam this is120
For Mum this is 50
06/04/2014
Sam always lies

Calling him as Liar is not a
harsh
You love your mum
She never tell lies
Calling her as a Liar is so cruel
M.P.Dhanushika

Rejection Region is much smaller than Sams case
Smaller rejection region says,
You are less likely to call your Mum is liar
Because you know the fact that she is telling TRUTH
Rejection Region
c =50
06/04/2014
M.P.Dhanushika

Rejection Region is larger in Sams case
Larger rejection region says,
You are more likely to say He is a liar
Because you know the fact that most of the time Sam says lies
So calling him as liar is not a harsh thing
Rejection Region
c =120
06/04/2014
M.P.Dhanushika
Cut off value for rejection region is decided by you

By RESEARCHER
Depend on
How sure you want to be when rejecting a claim
Smaller rejection region

We are more sure when rejecting the claim
Larger rejection region
We are less sure when rejecting the claim
06/04/2014
M.P.Dhanushika
Null Hypothesis (H0) is the claim

Sams long term average bowling score is 150
Alternative Hypothesis (H1) is what must be true if H0 is false
Sams average bowling score is below 150: he is a liar: he is a dodgy friend
Sample Statistic is observed sample estimate which is used to test whether

the claim is rejected or not rejected
Sams average bowling score over 3 games
Critical value is the cut-off value which indicates whether the claim is
rejected or not rejected
If Sams average bowling score over 3 games is
below 120 I will reject his claim
Decision Rule
Significance level () measures how sure you want to be when rejecting H0

Smaller significance () level the more sure when you are rejecting H0
Estimation
Dont know value of the parameter
Collect sample data
Give an approximate value or range for parameter
Testing
First, make a claim about the parameter
Then test the claim using sample data
06/04/2014
M.P.Dhanushika
Population
(100 number of games of

bowling)
Bowling scores for 100 games
Claim
Average bowling
score over 100
games / long term
average score = 150
Sample
Bowling scores
over 3 Games
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SAMPLE STATISTIC
Average score over 3 games
M.P.Dhanushika
In reality
Claim is True
H0 is True
Decision from Sample

Accept H0
Reject H0
Correct
Wrong
Type I Error
(long term avg score =

150)
Claim is False
H0 is False
Wrong
Type II Error
Correct
(long term avg score <

150)
Pr(Type I Error) = Pr(Reject H0 when H0 is True) =

Significance () level How sure you want to be when you are
rejecting H0
06/04/2014
M.P.Dhanushika
In reality
Claim is True
H0 is True
Decision from Sample

Accept H0
Reject H0
Correct
Wrong
Type I Error
(long term avg score =

150)
Claim is False
H0 is False
Wrong
Type II Error
Correct
(long term avg score <

150)
Pr(Type I Error) = Pr(Reject H0 when H0 is True) =

Pr(Type 2 Error) = Pr(Accept H0 when H0 is False) =
Power of the test = Pr(Reject H0 when H0 is False) = 1-
our decisions are always about the null hypothesis

H0 : = 10
H1 : 10
Finally we conclude that, 10
Finally we conclude that, = 10
How to say your decision?
How to say your decision?
06/04/2014
Accept H1
Accept H0
Reject Ho
Do not Reject Ho
M.P.Dhanushika
our decisions are always about the null hypothesis

our decision is to 'reject H0'
What is the probability associated with making a Type 1 error? Answer: alpha=.05.
Thus a decision to 'reject H0' is accompanied by knowledge about the probability of
being in error
our decision is to 'not reject H0
What is the probability associated with making a Type 2 error? Answer: beta is unknown
Thus a decision to 'not reject H0' is accompanied by uncertainty about the probability of
being in error.
Without having any idea about the probability of making an error,
we cannot say we have proven that H0 is true
Cannot make a stronger statement, like 'accept H0',
Thats why we word this result so weakly.
06/04/2014
M.P.Dhanushika
H0 : = 10
H1 : 10
Two Rejection Regions
Test Statistic =
Two Tailed Test

H 0 : = 0
H 1 : 0
10
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X
M.P.Dhanushika
H0 : = 10
H1 : > 10
Right Tailed Test / Upper Tailed Test

H 0 : = 0
H 1 : > 0
Rejection Region
Test Statistic =
10
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X
M.P.Dhanushika
H0 : = 10
H1 : < 10
Left Tailed Test / Lower Tailed Test

H 0 : = 0
H 1 : < 0
Rejection Region
Test Statistic =
10
06/04/2014
X
M.P.Dhanushika
The null hypothesis (H0) will always state,

Parameter has a specified value
The alternative hypothesis (H1) will always state,

Parameter has value different from the value we specify in H0
Example:
(1) Someone claims that the average daily sales of a firm is Rs. 2000.
06/04/2014
M.P.Dhanushika
(1) Two tailed Z test known

(2) Two tailed Z test unknown
(3) One tailed Z test - known
(4) One tailed Z test - unknown
(5) Two tailed t test unknown

(6) One tailed t test unknown
06/04/2014
M.P.Dhanushika

Step 1: State the H0 and H1
Mean stress capacity of the population (Total Production) = = 80000
Standard deviation of the population = = 4000
Sample Data
n = 100, Mean stress capacity of the sample =
= 79600
H0 : = 80000
Two tailed test
H1 : 80000

Step 2: Specify level of significance
How sure you want to be when you are rejecting H0 = Pr(Type I Error)
Rejection region = = 0.05
H1 : 80000
/ 2 = 0.025
/ 2 = 0.025
0 80000

Step 3: Deciding which distribution to use
Assumption: population has a Normal distribution or t distribution
If we know population standard deviation
Normal distribution
(Z table )
If we dont know population standard deviation

n > 30
n 30
Normal distribution
(Z table )
Standard deviation of the

population = = 4000
Select Normal Distribution
t distribution
(t table )

Step 4: Find Z Table values & critical values
Normal distribution
/ 2 = 0.025
0 Z / 2 X
/ 2 = 0.025
0 80000
0 Z / 2 X

Normal distribution
X stadard error of the mean

/ n
/ 2 = 0.025
0 Z / 2 X
79216
/ 2 = 0.025
0 80000
0 Z / 2 X
80784
Step 5: Decision Rule

Acceptance Region
Rejection Region
H1 : 80000
/ 2 = 0.025
0 Z / 2 X
/ 2 = 0.025
0 80000
0 Z / 2 X
79216
if Xis between 79216 and 80784
80784
Do not reject H0

Step 6: Conclusion
Acceptance Region
Rejection Region
/ 2 = 0.025
0 Z / 2 X
/ 2 = 0.025
0 80000
79216
0 Z / 2 X
80784
since X 79600 is between79216 and 80784
We conclude that we do not reject H0 at .05 level of significance.

There is no enough evidence to support H1
There is no enough evidence to say that production doesnt run as meeting
stress requirements

Average income for government employees = = 18750
Standard deviation of the population =
Sample Data
n = 100, average salary of employees of the sample = X = 19240
Standard deviation of the salary of employees of the sample = s = 2610
H0 : = 18750
Two tailed test
H1 : 18750

How sure you want to be when you are rejecting H0 = Pr(Type I Error)
/ 2 = 0.025
/ 2 = 0.025
0 18750
H1 : 18750

Normal distribution
(Z table )

n > 30
n 30
Normal distribution
(Z table )

sample = s = 2610
n = 100
t distribution
(t table )

Step 4: Find Z Table values & Critical values
Normal distribution
/ 2 = 0.025
0 Z / 2 ( S X )
/ 2 = 0.025
0 18750
0 Z / 2 ( S X )

Normal distribution
S X stadard error of the sample mean
S/ n
/ 2 = 0.025
0 Z / 2 ( S X )
18238.44
/ 2 = 0.025
0 18750
0 Z / 2 ( S X )
19261.56

Acceptance Region
Rejection Region
/ 2 = 0.025
0 Z / 2 ( S X )
18238.44
/ 2 = 0.025
0 18750
H1 : 18750
0 Z / 2 ( S X )
19261.56
if Xis between18238.44and 19261.56
Do not reject H0

Step 6: Conclusion
Acceptance Region
Rejection Region
/ 2 = 0.025
0 Z / 2 ( S X )
18238.44
/ 2 = 0.025
0 18750
since X 19240 is between18238.44and 19261.56
0 Z / 2 ( S X )
19261.56

There is no significant difference between the average salary of the
government employees in Washington and the national average
(3) One tailed Z test known

Population mean dosage of the drug = = 100
Standard deviation of the population = = 2
Sample Data
n = 50, sample mean of the dosage = X
= 99.75
H0 : = 100
One tailed test
H1 : 100
H1 : < 100

H1 : < 100
= 0.1
0 100

Normal distribution
(Z table )

n > 30
n 30
Normal distribution
(Z table )

population = = 2
t distribution
(t table )

Step 4: Find Z Table values & Critical Values
Normal distribution
= 0.1
0 Z X
0 100
Step 4: Find Z Table values & Critical values

Normal distribution
X stadard error of the mean

/ n
= 0.1
0 Z X
99.638
0 100

Acceptance Region
Rejection Region
H1 : < 100
= 0.1
0 Z X
99.638
0 100
if X is greater than 99.638
Do not reject H0

Step 5: Conclusion
Acceptance Region
Rejection Region
= 0.1
99.638
since X 99.75 is greater than 99.638
0 100
We conclude that we do not reject H0 at 0.1 level of significance.

There is no enough evidence to say that dosages in the shipment are
too small.
(4) One tailed Z test unknown

Average bulb life (Population mean) = = 1600
Sample Data
n = 100, average bulb life of the sample= X = 1570
Standard deviation of the bulb life of the sample= s = 120
H0 : = 1600
One tailed test
H1 : 1600
H1 : < 1600
H1 : > 1600

H1 : < 1600
= 0.01
0 1600

Normal distribution
(Z table )

n > 30
n 30
Normal distribution
(Z table )

population =
Sample size = 100
t distribution
(t table )

Normal distribution
= 0.01
0 Z S X
0 1600

Normal distribution
S X stadard error of the mean
S/ n
= 0.01
0 Z S X
1572.04
0 1600

Acceptance Region
Rejection Region
H1 : < 1600
= 0.01
0 Z S X
0 1600
1572.04
if X is greater than 1572.04
Do not reject H0

Step 5: Conclusion
Acceptance Region
Rejection Region
= 0.01
1572.04
0 1600
since X 1570 is less than 1572.04
We conclude that we reject H0 at .01 level of significance.

A light bulb lasts on an average less than 1600 hours / manufacturers
claim is not valid.

Average number of days lost each year per worker due to sickness = = 15
Sample Data
n = 25, Average number of days lost per worker of the sample =
Standard deviation of the sample= S = 15.845
H0 : = 15
Two tailed test
H1 : 15
= 18.32


Normal distribution
(Z table )

n > 30
n 30
Normal distribution
(Z table )

population =
Sample size = 25 < 30
t distribution
(t table )
Select t Distribution

t distribution
/ 2 = 0.025
/ 2 = 0.025
t
0
H1 : 15
X 0
t
SX

Step 4: Find t Table values
t distribution
/ 2 = 0.025
t / 2,n 1
/ 2 = 0.025
t
0
t / 2,n 1

t distribution
/ 2 = 0.025
t / 2
2.064
/ 2 = 0.025
t
0
t / 2
2.064
Critical Values from the table

Step 4: Find actual critical values (using sample data)
Standardize sample mean
X 0
t
SX
SX S / n
t 1.05
t distribution
/ 2 = 0.025
t / 2
2.064
/ 2 = 0.025
t
0
t / 2
2.064
Acceptance Region
Rejection Region
X 0
t
SX
SX S / n
t 1.05
/ 2 = 0.025
t / 2
2.064
Do not reject H0
/ 2 = 0.025
t
0
1.05 t / 2
2.064

Acceptance Region
Step 6: Conclusion
X 0
t
SX
SX S / n
t 1.05
Rejection Region
/ 2 = 0.025
t / 2 2.064
/ 2 = 0.025
t
0
1.05 t / 2
2.064

There is no enough evidence to reject H0
There is no enough evidence to say that number of days lost each year
through sickness was 15 days per worker on average

Average percentage of lint in seed cotton = = 40
Sample Data
n = 18, sample mean =X = 37.206
Standard deviation of the sample= S = 0.796
H0 : = 40
One tailed test
H1 : 40
H1 : < 40


Normal distribution
(Z table )

n > 30
n 30
Normal distribution
(Z table )

population =
Sample size = 18 < 30
t distribution
(t table )
Select t Distribution

t distribution
= 0.01
t
0
H1 : < 40
X 0
t
SX

t distribution
= 0.01
t ,n 1

t distribution
= 0.01
2.567
Critical Values from the table

Step 4: Find actual critical values (using sample data)
Standardize sample mean
t distribution
X 0
t
SX
SX S / n
= 0.01
t 14.89
2.567
Acceptance Region
Rejection Region
X 0
t
SX
SX S / n
= 0.01
14.89 t
t 14.89
2.567
reject H0
Step 6: Conclusion
Rejection Region
Acceptance Region
X 0
t
SX
SX S / n
t 14.89
= 0.01
14.89 t
2.567
We conclude that we reject H0 at .01 level of significance.

Average percentage of lint in this cotton variety less than 40.
H0 : = 0
H1 : 0
H0 : = 0
H1 : 0
(3) One tailed Z test - known
H0 : = 0 H0 : = 0
H1 : < 0 H1 : > 0
(4) One tailed Z test - unknown
H0 : = 0 H0 : = 0
H1 : < 0 H1 : > 0
H0 : = 0
H1 : 0

06/04/2014
H0 : = 0 H0 : = 0
H1 : < 0 H1 : > 0
M.P.Dhanushika

Hypothesis Testing

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Hypothesis Testing

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MPZ 4230 Engineering Mathematics

The Open University of Sri Lanka

Lets get a help from Sam

At what point between 30 and 140 Do you make the

Make assumption Claim is True

Probability Distribution of Bowling Scores

Probability Distribution of Bowling Scores

Do you believe Mum statement my long time average

For Sam this is120

For Mum this is 50

Sam always lies

Probability Distribution of Bowling Scores

Probability Distribution of Bowling Scores

Cut off value for rejection region is decided by you

Smaller rejection region

Null Hypothesis (H0) is the claim

Sample Statistic is observed sample estimate which is used to test whether

Significance level () measures how sure you want to be when rejecting H0

(100 number of games of

Decision from Sample

(long term avg score =

(long term avg score <

Pr(Type I Error) = Pr(Reject H0 when H0 is True) =

Decision from Sample

(long term avg score =

(long term avg score <

Pr(Type I Error) = Pr(Reject H0 when H0 is True) =

our decisions are always about the null hypothesis

Finally we conclude that, = 10

How to say your decision?

How to say your decision?

our decisions are always about the null hypothesis

Two Tailed Test

Right Tailed Test / Upper Tailed Test

Left Tailed Test / Lower Tailed Test

The null hypothesis (H0) will always state,

The alternative hypothesis (H1) will always state,

(1) Two tailed Z test known

(5) Two tailed t test unknown

(1) Two tailed Z test known

(1) Two tailed Z test known

Rejection region = = 0.05

(1) Two tailed Z test known

If we dont know population standard deviation

Standard deviation of the

(1) Two tailed Z test known

(1) Two tailed Z test known

X stadard error of the mean

(1) Two tailed Z test known

Step 5: Decision Rule

(1) Two tailed Z test known

since X 79600 is between79216 and 80784

We conclude that we do not reject H0 at .05 level of significance.

(2) Two tailed Z test unknown

(2) Two tailed Z test unknown

Rejection region = = 0.05

(2) Two tailed Z test unknown

If we dont know population standard deviation

Standard deviation of the

Select Normal Distribution

(2) Two tailed Z test unknown

(2) Two tailed Z test unknown

(2) Two tailed Z test unknown