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SPE 98796
A SIMPLE APPROACH TO MODELLING GAS WELL DELIVERABILITY
Vincent O. Eme, SPE; Chevron Nigeria Limited
Abstract
The Petroleum industry has recognized the value of
monetizing gas resources. The Nigerian Government
has stated its desire to grow the gas business.
Numerous gas projects are either being planned or in
the execution phase. The objective of this paper is to
present a simple screening tool for evaluating gas well
performance.
Numerical simulation is expensive and time consuming.
Analytical approach to predicting gas performance is
needed as a screening tool. The three components to
performance prediction are: Initial rate estimate,
prediction of rate decline as reservoir pressure
depletes, and prediction of reservoir pressure decline
due to production.
This paper shows that the decline in gas rate for
various tubing sizes (3 , 4 , 5-1/2, and 7) on a
dimensionless or normalized scale is similar. The
resulting relationship combined with the material
balance equation for depletion drive reservoirs gives a
method of predicting performance of gas wells. This
Introduction
Demand for natural gas is expected to grow faster than
any other fuel. Numerous LNG projects are being
planned to meet the ever rising energy needs.
Developing a reservoir depletion plan is the first step in
any gas development project.
Gas reservoirs, with the exception of low permeability
reservoirs, deplete in a volumetric manner because the
gas voidage is much higher than the water influx.
Arthur et al1 and Corbett2 presented methods for
forecasting gas well performance. These methods
require more data than is usually available to the
Reservoir Engineer. During the appraisal stage of a
reservoir, the available data is usually limited to basic
petrophysical properties obtained from wireline logs.
The objective of this paper is to present a method of
forecasting gas well deliverability from readily
available data. The method presented assumes
volumetric depletion and negligible water production.
This work will show how to develop generalized tubing
performance relationships from nodal analysis. In
combination with the material balance equation, a
method for forecasting gas well performance will be
presented. In addition, a method for forecasting
condensate production will also be presented.
Forecasting Procedure
The following steps outline the procedure for making a
production forecast:
STEP 1.
Estimate permeability from a correlation.
The Coates and Denoo3 equation can be used:
K 1 / 2 = 100e 2 [(1 S wi ) S wi ]
(1)
STEP 2
Estimate initial gas rate from nodal analysis derived
relationship.
STEP 3
Estimate gas rate as a function of reservoir pressure
from relationship between normalized gas rate and
reservoir pressure.
STEP 4
Take successive pressure decrements and calculate
cumulative gas produced from
Gp = Gi [ 1 - (Zi/Pi)/(Z/Pr)]
Tubing Size
40
30
20
Q = 40 *[1 - Exp(-0.0428 * Perm)]
10
(2)
0
0
Figure 1
STEP 5
Calculate incremental production time, t from
t = Gp/(Average gas rate)
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
80
60
40
Q = 80 *[1 - Exp(-0.025 * Perm)]
20
0
0
Figure 2
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
120
STEP 6
Estimate initial condensate yield from a correlation.
50
100
90
60
Q = 130 *[1 - Exp(-0.025 * Perm)]
30
0
0
Figure 3
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
250
SPE 98796
200
150
100
Q = 250 *[1 - Exp(-0.0128 * Perm)]
50
0
0
Figure 4
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
750
1000
4 1/2" TBG
5 1/2" TBG
7" TBG
200
150
0.80
3 1/2" TBG
4 1/2" TBG
5 1/2" TBG
7" TBG
0.60
0.40
(Q/Qi) = 1.20 (P/Pi) - 0.20
0.20
0.00
0.00
Figure 6
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
0.80
0.60
3 1/2" TBG
4 1/2" TBG
5 1/2" TBG
7" TBG
0.40
0.20
0.00
0.00
Figure 7
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
500
1.00
SPE 98796
3 1/1" TBG
4 1/2" TBG
5 1/2" TBG
7" TBG
0.80
0.60
0.40
(Q/Qi) = 1.46 (P/Pi) - 0.46
0.20
0.00
0.00
0.20
Figure 8
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
100
Production Time
50
0
500
Figure 5
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
SPE 98796
(3)
=0.5667(Pr/Pd)2-0.0494(Pr/Pd)+0.4784
(4)
Relative
Yield
=0.2857(Pr/Pd)2+0.7109(Pr/Pd)-0.0003
(5)
60
50
0.8
2
0.4
0.2
0
Figure 10
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Sample Problem
The procedure outlined will be used to forecast gas and
condensate production profile (unconstrained) for a
reservoir with the following properties:
Original Gas in place = 400 BSCF
Porosity =0.25, Water Saturation = 0.25
Depth =10,000 FT TVDSS, Net Sand = 60 ft
Initial Pressure =4500 psig,
Dew Point Pressure =4500 psig
Reservoir Temperature =255oF
Tubing size = 4 , Well Head Pressure = 500 psig
Step 1
Estimate Permeability from equation (1)
Permeability = 352 mD
Step 2
Estimate initial gas rate from equation in Table 1 for
4 tubing:
Initial gas rate = 80 MMSCF/D
40
30
20
10
Initial Yield = 0.0067*Pressure - 14.488
0
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
Cassia
Teak
Immortelle
Flamboyant
Amherstia
Mohogamy
8000
Step 3
Utilize 200 psi pressure decrements.
Calculate gas rate and condensate yield for 4300 psig
Calculate gas rate from equation in Table 2 for 500
psig Wellhead pressure: gas rate = 75.7 MMSCF/D
Step 4
Calculate cumulative gas produced from equation (2)
Cumulative gas produced, Gp = 11.66 BSCF
Step 5
Calculate average gas rate over period Qavg
Qavg = 0.5*(80+75.7) = 77.8 MMSCF/D
Case 1
Sand A with the following properties:
60
240
50
200
40
160
30
120
20
80
RF=64%
60
240.00
40
160.00
Well Head Press =1000 psig
Well Head Press = 500 psig
20
80.00
0
0
Figure 11
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
10
0.00
16,000
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
400
160
320
120
240
80
160
80
40
0
Figure 12
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
200
1500
4500
Simple Model
3D Simulation
1000
3000
500
1500
0
0
Figure 14
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
Days
Case 2
Sand B with the following properties:
7500
6000
0
8,000
Time (Days)
2000
0
6000
DAYS
2500
Time (Days)
40
Simple Model
3D Simulation
0
0
Figure 13
320.00
0
6000
RF=79%
80
400.00
100
SPE 98796
SPE 98796
Nomenclature
80
240
60
180
40
120
Simple Model
3D Simulation
20
K = Permeability, mD
e =Effective Porosity, fraction
Swi= Irreducible Water Saturation, fraction
Gi= Original Gas in place, BSCF
Gp= Cumulative gas produced, BSCF
Pr= Reservoir Pressure, psig
Pd= Dew point Pressure, psig
Qi = Initial Gas rate, MMSCF/D
Q = Gas rate, MMSCF/D
Comparison of model Gas Prediction and 3-D Numerical Simulation forecast For
Sand B
60
0
0
Figure 15
1000
2000
3000
4000
0
6000
5000
Acknowledgments
Time (Days)
24000
10000
20000
8000
16000
6000
Simple Model
3D Simulation
12000
4000
8000
2000
4000
0
0
Figure 16
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
0
6000
References
1.
2.
Time (Days)
Conclusions
1) Normalized gas rate is independent of tubing
size and formation permeability.
2) The method presented can be used to develop
a production forecast for gas and gas
condensate reservoirs.
3.
4.
SPE 98796
Max Gas
Rate/Well
Condensate
Yield
No of
Wells
(MMSCF/D) (bbl/MMSCF)
80.0
75.7
71.5
67.2
62.9
58.7
54.4
50.1
45.9
41.6
37.3
33.1
28.8
24.5
20.3
16.0
11.7
7.5
3.2
Target
rate/Well
Total gas
Rate
(MMSCF/D) (MMSCF/D)
15.6
14.86
14.2
13.5
12.9
12.3
11.7
11.2
10.7
10.2
9.8
9.4
9.1
8.7
8.5
8.2
8.0
7.8
7.7
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
80
80
80
80
80
80
80
80
80
80
80
80
80
80
80
80
80
80
80
80
76
71
67
63
59
54
50
46
42
37
33
29
25
20
16
12
7
3
0.9650
0.9498
0.9362
0.9242
0.9138
0.9050
0.8978
0.8922
0.8882
0.8858
0.8850
0.8858
0.8882
0.8922
0.8978
0.9050
0.9138
0.9242
0.9362
Total
Prod.
Time
Total
Cond. rate
(BSCF)
(Days)
(Days)
(BCPD)
0.0
11.7
24.3
38.0
52.7
68.3
84.7
102.0
119.9
138.5
157.7
177.3
197.2
217.3
237.6
257.8
278.0
297.9
317.5
0
150
172
197
225
256
291
330
374
426
485
557
644
755
904
1117
1453
2077
3682
0
150
322
520
745
1,001
1,292
1,622
1,997
2,422
2,907
3,464
4,108
4,863
5,767
6,884
8,337
10,414
14,096
1,247
1,125
1,011
906
809
719
636
560
490
425
366
311
261
215
172
131
94
58
25
Cum Prod
Gas
Incremental
Prod. Time
(BSCF)
0.00
11.66
24.34
38.03
52.68
68.26
84.71
101.96
119.93
138.54
157.69
177.28
197.19
217.33
237.58
257.83
(Days)
0
151
176
204
237
275
320
373
438
519
624
768
981
1333
2041
4283
Max Gas
Rate/Well
Condensate
Yield
(MMSCF/D) (bbl/MMSCF)
80.0
15.6
74.8
14.86
69.6
14.2
64.4
13.5
59.2
12.9
54.0
12.3
48.8
11.7
43.7
11.2
38.5
10.7
33.3
10.2
28.1
9.8
22.9
9.4
17.7
9.1
12.5
8.7
7.3
8.5
2.1
8.2
No of
Wells
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
Target
rate/Well
(MMSCF/D) (MMSCF/D)
80
80
80
75
80
70
80
64
80
59
80
54
80
49
80
44
80
38
80
33
80
28
80
23
80
18
80
13
80
7
80
2
0.9650
0.9498
0.9362
0.9242
0.9138
0.9050
0.8978
0.8922
0.8882
0.8858
0.8850
0.8858
0.8882
0.8922
0.8978
0.9050
Total
Total Cond.
Prod.
rate
Time
(Days)
(BCPD)
0
1,247
151
1,111
326
985
531
869
768
761
1,043
663
1,362
571
1,735
488
2,173
411
2,692
340
3,316
275
4,084
216
5,066
160
6,398
109
8,440
62
12,722
18
SPE 98796
Max Gas
Rate/Well
Condensate
Yield
No of
Wells
(MMSCF/D) (bbl/MMSCF)
80.0
15.6
75.7
14.86
71.5
14.2
67.2
13.5
62.9
12.9
58.7
12.3
54.4
11.7
50.1
11.2
45.9
10.7
41.6
10.2
37.3
9.8
33.1
9.4
28.8
9.1
24.5
8.7
20.3
8.5
16.0
8.2
11.7
8.0
7.5
7.8
3.2
7.7
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
Target
rate/Well
Total gas
Rate
Cum
Incremental
Prod Gas Prod. Time
(MMSCF/D) (MMSCF/D)
80
160
80
151
80
143
80
134
80
126
80
117
80
109
80
100
80
92
80
83
80
75
80
66
80
58
80
49
80
41
80
32
80
23
80
15
80
6
0.9650
0.9498
0.9362
0.9242
0.9138
0.9050
0.8978
0.8922
0.8882
0.8858
0.8850
0.8858
0.8882
0.8922
0.8978
0.9050
0.9138
0.9242
0.9362
(BSCF)
0.0
11.7
24.3
38.0
52.7
68.3
84.7
102.0
119.9
138.5
157.7
177.3
197.2
217.3
237.6
257.8
278.0
297.9
317.5
(Days)
0
75
86
99
113
128
145
165
187
213
243
278
322
378
452
558
726
1038
1841
Total
Total
Prod.
Cond. rate
Time
(Days) (BCPD)
0
2,495
75
2,250
161
2,023
260
1,813
372
1,618
501
1,438
646
1,273
811
1,120
998
980
1,211
850
1,454
732
1,732
623
2,054
522
2,432
429
2,884
343
3,442
263
4,168
188
5,207
117
7,048
49
Table 6: Two Wells Development Scenario constrained to 80 MMSCF/D for sample problem
(500 psig Wellhead Pressure Constraint)
Reservoir
Pressure
(psia)
4500
4300
4100
3900
3700
3500
3300
3100
2900
2700
2500
2300
2100
1900
1700
1500
1300
1100
900
Max Gas
Rate/Well
Condensate
Yield
(MMSCF/D) (bbl/MMSCF)
80.0
15.6
75.7
14.86
71.5
14.2
67.2
13.5
62.9
12.9
58.7
12.3
54.4
11.7
50.1
11.2
45.9
10.7
41.6
10.2
37.3
9.8
33.1
9.4
28.8
9.1
24.5
8.7
20.3
8.5
16.0
8.2
11.7
8.0
7.5
7.8
3.2
7.7
No of
Wells
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
Target
rate/Well
(MMSCF/D) (MMSCF/D)
40
80
40
80
40
80
40
80
40
80
40
80
40
80
40
80
40
80
40
80
40
75
40
66
40
58
40
49
40
41
40
32
40
23
40
15
40
6
0.9650
0.9498
0.9362
0.9242
0.9138
0.9050
0.8978
0.8922
0.8882
0.8858
0.8850
0.8858
0.8882
0.8922
0.8978
0.9050
0.9138
0.9242
0.9362
Cum Prod
Gas
(BSCF)
0.0
11.7
24.3
38.0
52.7
68.3
84.7
102.0
119.9
138.5
157.7
177.3
197.2
217.3
237.6
257.8
278.0
297.9
317.5
(Days)
0
146
304
475
659
853
1,059
1,275
1,499
1,732
1,979
2,258
2,580
2,957
3,409
3,968
4,694
5,733
7,574
(BCPD)
1,248
1,189
1,133
1,079
1,029
981
936
894
854
818
732
623
522
429
343
263
188
117
49