CE 5603 Seismic Hazard Assessment

Middle East Technical University, Ankara,Turkey

SOLUTION of ASSIGNMENT 3 Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Curves

25/03/2015
1. North Anatolian Fault (NAF) Segment Source Parameters are given below:
Length of Eastern NAF segment = 30 km
Length of Western NAF segment = 50 km
Width of both segments = 10 km
Faulting mechanism = strike slip
Distance to the rock site = 30 km

i)

Compute the mean characteristic magnitude earthquakes for both of the NAF
segments assuming rupture of only individual eastern and the western NAF
segments but not together.

Once again, using the rupture area-moment magnitude correlations proposed by Wells
and Coppersmith (1994), we derive two magnitudes formed by the rupture of
individual segments. The general equation is in the form;
M 3.98 1.02 log(RA)

(1)

where the rupture area for the eastern and western segments are computed
respectively.
RAEAST 30km10km 300km2

(2)

RAWEST 50km10km 500km2

(3)

Substituting back in Equation 1 yields the following for the mean characteristic
earthquake magnitudes;
M w ( East ) 3.98 1.02 log(300 ) 6.5
M w (West ) 3.98 1.02 log(500 ) 6.7

Solution of Assignment 3 : Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Curves

(4)

CE 5603 Seismic Hazard Assessment

Middle East Technical University, Ankara,Turkey

ii)

Assuming that individual fault segments only generates single size

earthquakes; compute the recurrence interval of the mean characteristic
earthquake.

A useful hint is given;

Rec.interval = (Seismic moment released/ Rate of Accumulation))

(5)

The philosophy behind the solution is first computing the seismic moment
generated by the earthquake event, and proportioning it to the seismic moment
released annually computed using the yearly slip rate of the fault (rate of
accumulation). This will approximately yield the number of years required to reach
the seismic moment released during the earthquake, by creeping along the fault.
Seismic moment released during the earthquake for the two segments are
computed by the available correlation between moment magnitude (Mw) and seismic
moment (M0). Moment magnitude doesnt have a unit and seismic moment is
expressed as (dyne x cm) or (N x m).
Let us begin by computing the rate of accumulation for both segments;
M 0 ( East) A D 32GPa (30 10)km2 20mm / yr 1.92 1017 N.m / yr

(6)

M 0 (West ) A D 32GPa (50 10)km2 20mm / yr 3.2 1017 N.m / yr

(7)

Here, the average shear modulus for rock is taken as 32GPa, and the average
slip rate for the NAFZ is taken as 20mm/year. The range lies between 18-25 mm/year
for the NAFZ.

To find the seismic moment released during the rupture event, we use the
well known correlation between the moment magnitude and seismic moment. The unit
for M0 is dyne.cm in Equation 8.

Mw

log M 0
10 .7
1.5

Solution of Assignment 3 : Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Curves

(8)

CE 5603 Seismic Hazard Assessment

Middle East Technical University, Ankara,Turkey

Thus, for Mw=6.5,

6.5

log M 0
10 .7 M 0 ( East Rupture) 6.309 10 18 N .m
1.5

(9)

and for Mw=6.7;

6.7

log M 0
10 .7 M 0 (West Rupture) 1.259 10 19 N .m
1.5

(10)

Computing the recurrence rates for both segments yield;

Re c.rate( East )

Re c.rate(West )

iii)

1.92 10 17 N .m / yr
6.309 10 18 N .m
3.2 10 17 N .m / yr
1.259 10 19 N .m

0.0304 events / year

0.025 events / year

(11)
(12)

Compute and plot the resulting 50 year hazard curve for horizontal peak
ground acceleration (PGA) for our site.

(Hint : First find probability of exceedence conditional on mean characteristic

event, then multiply it with recurrence rates and estimate annual rate of
exceedence,, finally by using Poissons process, hazard curve for 50 year
period could be estimated)

The requested condition is given by the formula;

i ( A a) N i (mmin ) Pi ( A a | Ei (m mmin ))

(13)

for an event created on a single fault (see class notes). Ni is the number of
events per year where m>mmin. This section was previously calculated in Section 2
(recurrence rate). To find the probability of exceedence of the peak ground
acceleration, we make use of the PDF and CDF of either normal or lognormal
Solution of Assignment 3 : Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Curves

CE 5603 Seismic Hazard Assessment

Middle East Technical University, Ankara,Turkey

distribution (normal distribution will be used here although both are possible), having
the mean and standard deviation values computed from the attenuation relationships
for characteristic earthquakes occurring 30 km away from the site of interest.

As we have done in the previous week, Sadigh et. al. (1997) attenuation
relationship will be used. Note that regression coefficients will be different for
magnitudes less than or equal to 6.5, and greater than 6.5 respectively.

ln( Y ) c1 c2 M c3 (8.5 M ) 2.5 c4 ln( rrup exp( c5 c6 M )) c7 ln( rrup 2)

(14)
For the eastern segment of the fault where Mw=6.5;
ln(Y ) 0.624 (1.0) (6.5) (2.1) ln(30 exp(1.29649 (0.250 ) 6.5)) 2.2828

(15)

(ln Y ) 0.48

(16)

For the western segment of the fault where Mw=6.7;

ln(Y ) 1.274 (1.1) (6.7) (2.1) ln(30 exp( 0.48451 (0.524 ) 6.7)) 2.1456

(17)

(ln Y ) 0.452

(18)

Once again remembering that logarithm of the peak acceleration values are
normally distributed or peak ground accelerations are lognormally distributed, we are
ready to compute the probability of exceedence of a specific acceleration value. In this
case, we assume that the logarithms of peak accelerations are normally distributed.

So the normal distribution for accelerations for the earthquake event on the
eastern segment will have the mean -2.2828 and standard deviation 0.48.
Therefore, in the same manner, the normal distribution for accelerations for
the earthquake event on the eastern segment will have the mean -2.1456 and standard
deviation 0.452.
We will form the distributions mentioned above, and evaluate the values in the
CDF function (probabilities of non-exceedence) for various peak ground acceleration
levels. The CDF functions are evaluated for the natural logarithms of the desired pga
values chosen as 0.05g, 0.10g, 0.15g, 0.20g, 0.25g, 0.30g, 0.40g, 0.50g and0.60g
respectively.
Solution of Assignment 3 : Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Curves

CE 5603 Seismic Hazard Assessment

Middle East Technical University, Ankara,Turkey

PDF AND CDF EVALUATION FOR THE EASTERN SEGMENT

Normal distribution with mean=-2.2828 and =0.48

2.2828

0.48

Thus the PDF becomes;

f( x)

1 e

2
PDF for Normal Distribution
1
0.8
0.6

f( x)

0.4
0.2
0

F(x) pnorm( x 2.2828 0.48)

CDF for Normal Distribution

1

F( x)
0.5

F( 2.996) 0.069

F( 1.2040) 0.988

F( 2.3026) 0.484

F( 0.9163) 0.998

F( 1.8971) 0.7892

F( 0.6931) 0.9995

F( 1.6094) 0.92

F( 0.5108) 0.9999

F( 1.3863) 0.9691

Solution of Assignment 3 : Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Curves

CE 5603 Seismic Hazard Assessment

Middle East Technical University, Ankara,Turkey

PDF AND CDF EVALUATION FOR THE WESTERN SEGMENT

Normal distribution with mean=-2.1456 and =0.452
Thus the PDF becomes;

f( x)

1 e

2
PDF for Normal Distribution
1
0.8
0.6

f( x)

0.4
0.2
0

F(x) pnorm( x 2.1456 0.452)

CDF for Normal Distribution

1

F( x)
0.5

F( 2.996) 0.03

F( 1.2040) 0.981

F( 2.3026) 0.364

F( 0.9163) 0.997

F( 1.8971) 0.7088

F( 0.6931) 0.9993

F( 1.6094) 0.882

F( 0.5108) 0.9999

F( 1.3863) 0.9535

Solution of Assignment 3 : Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Curves

CE 5603 Seismic Hazard Assessment

Middle East Technical University, Ankara,Turkey

Now from the CDF, we have evaluated the ordinates for various acceleration
values. These are the areas under the PDF plot starting from the left, namely the probabilities
of non-exceedence of the peak ground accelerations. One minus the value gives us the
probability that the event will have a larger peak ground acceleration value than the entered
one.
Referring back to Equation 13, we have evaluated the Pi terms, and the Ni terms
are already calculated in the previous section. The values are simply multiplied to yield the i
values namely the annual frequency of exceedence. The results are presented in Table 1 for
both segments.
Table 1 : Forming the annual hazard curve ordinates for individual fault segments.

EASTERN SEGMENT Mw=6.5

pga
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6

ln(pga)
-2.99573
-2.30259
-1.89712
-1.60944
-1.38629
-1.20397
-0.91629
-0.69315
-0.51083

F1(x)
6.90E-02
4.84E-01
0.7892
9.20E-01
9.69E-01
9.88E-01
9.98E-01
9.995E-01
9.999E-01

1-F1(x)
0.9310
0.5160
0.2108
0.0800
0.0309
0.0120
0.0020
0.0005
0.0001

1
0.02830
0.01569
0.00641
0.00243
0.00094
0.00036
0.00006
0.00002
0.00000

WESTERN SEGMENT Mw=6.7

pga
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6

ln(pga)
-2.99573
-2.30259
-1.89712
-1.60944
-1.38629
-1.20397
-0.91629
-0.69315
-0.51083

F2(x)
3.00E-02
3.64E-01
7.09E-01
8.82E-01
9.54E-01
9.81E-01
9.97E-01
9.99E-01
1.00E+00

1-F2(x)
0.9700
0.6360
0.2912
0.1180
0.0465
0.0190
0.0030
0.0007
0.0001

2
0.02425
0.01590
0.00728
0.00295
0.00116
0.00048
0.00008
0.00002
0.00000

As the rupture process of the two segments is considered to be independent, annual

frequency of exceedence terms are simply added (Table 2).

Solution of Assignment 3 : Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Curves

CE 5603 Seismic Hazard Assessment

Middle East Technical University, Ankara,Turkey

Table 2 : Ordinates for the total hazard curve

0.02830
0.01569
0.00641
0.00243
0.00094
0.00036
0.00006

0.02425
0.01590
0.00728
0.00295
0.00116
0.00048
0.00008

TOTAL P(A>a,50)
0.05255 0.92775
0.03159 0.793885
0.01369 0.495615
0.00538 0.235933
0.00210 0.099759
0.00084 0.041121
0.00014 0.006767

0.00002

0.00002

0.00003

0.001634

0.00000

0.00000

0.00001

0.000277

We have now formed the total annual frequency of exceedence. Thinking from the
recurrence perspective, earthquakes are assumed to fit the Poissons process. Probability of at
least one event to occur within a specified time interval is given by,
P( A a, t ) 1 exp( ( A a) t )

(19)

Please see the class notes for the derivation of the expression. Expression 19 is
computed with t=50 years, and the results are presented in the last column of Table 2. The
results express the probability of at least one event to occur within 50 years given the
condition that pga value A exceeds the specified value a. The hazard curve is presented
below.
Probability of exceedence in 50 years.
1
0.9
0.8

P((A>a),50)

0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

pga (g)

Solution of Assignment 3 : Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Curves

CE 5603 Seismic Hazard Assessment

Middle East Technical University, Ankara,Turkey

References:

1.

Erdik, M., Durukal, E., (2001), 1999 Kocaeli and Dzce, Turkey earthquakes:
strong ground motion, in XV ICSMGE TC4 Satellite Conference on Lessons
Learned from Recent Strong Earthquakes 25 August, 2001, Istanbul, Turkey,
pp. 93-112.

2.

Kramer, S. L., (1996), Geotechnical Earthquake Engineering, Prentice Hall,

NJ.

Solution of Assignment 3 : Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Curves