Professional Documents
Culture Documents
RESEARCH
CONTENT
04 INDIA
12 AHMEDABAD
21 BENGALURU
41 CHENNAI
59 HYDERABAD
76
KOLKATA
88 MUMBAI
105 NCR
124 PUNE
RESEARCH
RESIDENTIAL MARKET
RESIDENTIAL MARKET LAUNCHES, ABSORPTION AND
PRICE TRENDS
FIGURE 1
Hetal Bachkaniwala
ABSORPTION
180,000
INDIA
160,000
140,000
120,000
100,000
H1 2014
H2 2014
H1 2015
H2 2015
H1 2016 E
Note: The top eight cities are Mumbai, NCR, Bengaluru, Pune, Chennai, Hyderabad, Kolkata
and Ahmedabad
H2 2015
H1 2016 E
40,000
35,000
Number of units
30,000
RESEARCH
FIGURE 4
25,000
20,000
<`2.5 MN
15,000
100%
10,000
90%
`2.5-5 MN
`5-7.5 MN
`7.5-10 MN
`10--20 MN
>`20 MN
80%
5,000
70%
0
MUMBAI
NCR
BENGALURU
PUNE
CHENNAI
HYDERABAD
KOLKATA
60%
AHMEDABAD
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
FIGURE 3
H2 2015
MUMBAI
H1 2016 E
NCR
BENGALURU
PUNE
CHENNAI
HYDERABAD
KOLKATA
AHMEDABAD
40,000
35,000
Number of units
30,000
25,000
20,000
FIGURE 5
15,000
10,000
LAUNCHES
ABSORPTION
5,000
5,000
0
MUMBAI
NCR
BENGALURU
PUNE
CHENNAI
HYDERABAD
KOLKATA
AHMEDABAD
4,000
Number of units
3,000
2,000
0
H1 2014
H2 2014
H1 2015
H2 2015
OFFICE MARKET
FIGURE 6
HYDERABAD
15
MUMBAI
NCR
CHENNAI
AHMEDABAD
10
PUNE
BEGALURU
KOLKATA
5
5
10
15
20
QTS
Source: Knight Frank Research
Note: The size of the bubble indicates the quantum of unsold inventory. QTS is the quarter to
sell unsold inventory.
FIGURE 1
ABSORPTION
VACANCY (RHS)
20%
25
20
mn sq.ft.
RESEARCH
18%
15
16%
10
14%
12%
H1 2014
H2 2014
H1 2015
H2 2015
H1 2016E
The top six cities are Mumbai, NCR, Bengaluru, Pune, Chennai and Hyderabad
FIGURE 2
H1 2015
H1 2016E
Growth
Launches (units)
113,499
118,402
4%
160
Absorption (units)
121,051
133,556
10%
140
STOCK
120
mn sq.ft.
OCCUPIED STOCK
100
80
60
40
20
0
MUMBAI
NCR
BENGALURU
PUNE
CHENNAi
HYDERABAD
FIGURE 3
FIGURE 5
NEW COMPLETIONS
ABSORPTION
H2 2014
VACANCY (RHS)
H2 2015
100,000
25%
80,000
21.5%
20.0%
20%
15.4%
5
4
60,000
14.6%
15%
10.8%
sq.ft.
mn sq.ft.
RESEARCH
40,000
10%
7.5%
20,000
5%
MUMBAI
0
MUMBAI
NCR
BENGALURU
PUNE
CHENNAi
HYDERABAD
NCR
BENGALURU
CHENNAi
PUNE
HYDERABAD
H1 2015
H1 2016E
Growth
15.7
17.0
8%
17.9
18.8
5%
Vacancy
17%
15%
OTHER SERVICES
80%
ABSORPTION
VACANCY (RHS)
25%
60%
6
mn sq.ft.
40%
20%
19.7%
21.5%
NCR
BENGALURU
PUNE
CHENNAI
HYDERABAD
20%
13.4%
4
3
14.4%
15%
10%
8.1%
0
MUMBAI
FIGURE 6
MANUFACTURING
100%
mn sq.ft.
FIGURE 4
IT/ITeS
6.8%
5%
1
0
0
MUMBAI
NCR
BENGALURU
PUNE
CHENNAi
HYDERABAD
10
11
RESEARCH
RESIDENTIAL MARKET
RESIDENTIAL MARKET LAUNCHES, ABSORPTION AND
PRICE TRENDS
FIGURE 1
Hetal Bachkaniwala
12,000
10,000
3,000
2,800
2,600
6,000
2,400
4,000
` / sq ft
8,000
Number of units
AHMEDABAD
ABSORPTION
2,200
2,000
0
2,000
H1 2014
H2 2014
H1 2015
H2 2015
H1 2016 E
12
market.
New launches in East and West
Ahmedabad have dropped in the
last year, as developers are still
trying to sell the residential units in
their previously-launched projects
that remain unsold despite nearing
completion.
13
FIGURE 2
H1 2015
MICRO-MARKET
H2 2015
40%
35%
35%
29%
26%
30%
19%
20%
23%22%
22%
19%
15%
Central
35%
23%
25%
15%
12%
10%
RESEARCH
8%
LOCATIONS
Paldi, Vasna, Navrangpura, Maninagar, Dudheshwar, Ambawadi
East
North
South
West
5% 6%
5%
0
CENTRAL
EAST
NORTH
SOUTH
WEST
H2 2015
7,490
units
H2 2014
4,990
units
H1 2015
8,060
units
FIGURE 3
EAST
NORTH
SOUTH
WEST
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
< `2.5 MN
`2.5 - 5 MN
`5 - 7.5 MN
`7.5 - 10 MN
`10-20 MN
>-`20 MN
14
15
FIGURE 4
H1 2015
H2 2015
40%
36%
32%
35%
30%
30%
30% 30%
28%
25%
20%
17% 18%17%
15%
14% 14%14%
10%
5%
4%
8%
9%
0
CENTRAL
EAST
NORTH
SOUTH
WEST
recovery in sales:
located there.
Homebuyers in Ahmedabad
9,075
H1 2015
7,750
MICRO-MARKET
units
PREMIUM LOCATIONS
Central
West
7%
24%
34%
13%
22%
D
E
Source: Knight Frank Research
16
FIGURE 5
LAUNCHES
1,400
6,000
1,200
5,500
1,000
Number of units
8,020
H2 2014
A
CENTRAL
B
EAST
C
NORTH
D
SOUTH
E
WEST
H2 2015
units
units
5,000
800
4,500
600
4,000
400
3,500
200
0
3,000
H2 2013
H1 2014
H2 2014
H1 2015
H2 2015
` / sq ft
RESEARCH
17
24
No. of Quarters
20
16
12
8
4
0
DEC-13
MAR-14
JUN-14
DEC-14
MAR-15
JUN-15
SEP-15
WEST
NORTH
EAST
SOUTH
14
11
5
5
Source: Knight Frank Research
18
DEC-15
11
QTS
12 MONTH CHANGE
6 MONTH CHANGE
Ahmedabad
2,770
3.3%
1.5%
Premium markets
5,325
9.0%
3.7%
FIGURE 6
AHMEDABAD
RESEARCH
14
12 MONTH
CHANGE
6 MONTH
CHANGE
5,500 - 8,500
5%
2%
Central
5,500 - 8,500
4%
2%
Central
3,500 - 6,500
2%
1%
5,000 - 6,800
2%
1%
LOCATION
MICRO-MARKET
Ambawadi
Central
Navrangpura
Mani Nagar
Paldi
Central
Naroda
East
2,000 - 3,500
1%
0%
Vastral
East
1,800 - 2,200
2%
1%
Nikol
East
1,800 - 2,200
1%
0%
Prahlad Nagar
West
5,000 - 6,000
6%
3%
Satellite
West
5,500 - 7,200
1%
0%
Thaltej
West
5,000 - 7,000
5%
2%
Vastrapur
West
5,500 - 7,500
2%
0%
Bopal
West
3,500 - 5,000
2%
1%
Chandkheda
North
2,500 - 3,800
3%
1%
Motera
North
2,800 - 3,600
2%
1%
Gota
North
3,000 - 3,800
3%
1%
19
RESEARCH
Projections
H1 2015
H1 2016E
Growth
Launches (units)
8,060
9,070
13%
Absorption (units)
7,750
8,080
4%
2,640
2,770
5%
economic front.
South Ahmedabad will continue to
witness a subdued sales volume,
as its great distance from the city
centre, the presence of a large
number of manufacturing units and
poor infrastructure facilities are
expected to restrict homebuyer
interest in this zone.
BENGALURU
20
21
RESIDENTIAL MARKET
ABSORPTION
H1 2015
H2 2015
40%
37%
34%
35%
28%
30%
40,000
5,000
25%
20%
30,000
15%
25,000
10%
20,000
4,500
` / sq ft
35,000
15,000
5%
26%
25%
38%
32%
25%
22%
13%
11%
9%
0% 0% 0%
0
CENTRAL
10,000
EAST
NORTH
SOUTH
WEST
5,000
0
4,000
H1 2014
H2 2014
H1 2015
H2 2015
H1 2016 E
22
FIGURE 2
FIGURE 1
Number of units
RESEARCH
price appreciation.
With the market struggling to
regain its past composure after the
subdued real estate sentiments
that had impinged upon the city
since H2 2014, developers have
become cautious regarding their
projects, thereby restricting their
number of launches.
On a positive note, an uptick was
observed in both new launches
and sales in H2 2015 compared H1
2015. We expect the market to pick
up again in the next six months,
owing mainly to the large quantum
of office space transacted in the
city during 2015 as well as the
projected new office absorption
in H1 2016. We estimate new
launches to increase by 21% in H1
2016, compared to H1 2015.
The sales volume is also expected
to improve in the next six months,
to the tune of around 28%, on a
year-over-year (YOY) basis.
On the price front, we expect
increased growth in H1 2016
compared to H1 2015. The period
is estimated to witness a 5%
increase in the annual weighted
average price.
23
RESEARCH
H2 2015
24,190
units
H2 2014
32,589
units
H1 2015
21,400
units
FIGURE 3
`2.5 - 5 MN
CENTRAL
EAST
`5 - 7.5 MN
WEST
`7.5 - 10 MN
`10-20 MN
NORTH
>-20 MN
SOUTH
24
25
RESEARCH
H2 2015
LOCATIONS
Central
27,849
M.G. Road, Lavelle Road, Langford Town, Vittal Mallya Road, Richmond Road
East
Whitefield, Old Airport Road, Old Madras Road, K.R. Puram, Marathahalli
West
North
South
Koramangala, Sarjapur Road, Jayanagar, J.P. Nagar, HSR Layout, Kanakapura Road,
Bannerghatta Road
units
H2 2014
28,445
units
H1 2015
22,234
units
FIGURE 4
H1 2015
H2 2015
42%40%
39%
40%
35%
30%
23%
25%
26%
23%
29%
26%
25%
20%
15%
8% 8%
10%
5%
10%
0% 0% 0%
0
CENTRAL
EAST
NORTH
SOUTH
WEST
26
B
A
A
CENTRAL
B
WEST
C
EAST
D
NORTH
E
SOUTH
C
D
0%
8%
25%
23%
44%
27
RESEARCH
PREMIUM LOCATIONS
FIGURE 6
M.G. Road, Lavelle Road, Langford Town, Vittal Mallya Road, Richmond Road
BENGALURU
PREMIUM MARKETS
13
East
Whitefield, Indiranagar
West
North
South
12
11
No. of Quarters
10
9
8
7
FIGURE 5
ABSORPTION
2,500
8,800
8,600
JUN-15
SEP-15
DEC-15
1,500
8,200
8,000
1,000
CENTRAL
11
` / sq ft
Number of units
MAR-14
FIGURE 5
8,400
EAST
WEST
NORTH
SOUTH
10
7,800
7,600
0
7,400
H2 2013
H1 2014
H2 2014
H1 2015
H2 2015
Note: Premium markets include locations where the average ticket size of a residential unit
is above ` 20 mn, are in close proximity to the central business district of the city and have
witnessed new project launches in the preceding three years
500
28
DEC-14
2,000
MAR-14 JUN-14
DEC-13
West Bengaluru is
currently the best
performing market of
the city, with the lowest
QTS, signifying that
the market has been
witnessing substantial
traction in recent times.
The Bangalore Metro
rail being operational at
several key locations and
the availability of lifestyle
projects are some of the
prime factors behind this
development.
5
5
10
11
12
QTS
29
RESEARCH
at an impasse.
LOCATION
12 MONTH CHANGE
6 MONTH CHANGE
Bengaluru
4,780
4%
3%
Premium markets
8,515
2%
-1%
6 MONTH
CHANGE
15,00021,000
3%
0%
22,00030,000
0%
0%
4,0006,750
2%
0%
East
4,5008,500
4%
0%
East
4,5007,100
3%
1%
LOCATION
MICRO-MARKET
Langford Town
Central
Lavelle Road
Central
K.R. Puram
East
Whitefield
Marathahalli
Indiranagar
East
9,00012,500
2%
0%
Yeshwanthpur
West
6,50010,750
8%
1%
Malleshwaram
West
9,00013,250
6%
1%
Rajajinagar
West
8,50014,000
2%
0%
Tumkur Road
West
4,0005,000
3%
2%
Yelahanka
North
4,5007,500
4%
4%
Hebbal
North
5,0009,800
2%
2%
Hennur
North
4,5006,700
10%
5%
Thanisandra
North
4,0007,500
5%
0%
Sarjapur Road
South
4,5007,200
4%
0%
Electronics City
South
4,0006,500
2%
0%
Kanakapura Road
South
4,3006,000
0%
0%
Bannerghatta Road
South
4,2007,200
2%
0%
rates.
30
31
H1 2016E
Growth
Launches (units)
21,400
25,870
21%
Absorption (units)
22,234
28,367
28%
4,650
4,890
5%
OFFICE MARKET
BENGALURU OFFICE MARKET STOCK, NEW
COMPLETIONS, ABSORPTION AND VACANCY TRENDS
FIGURE 1
STOCK
OCCUPIED STOCK
VACANCY (RHS)
140
12%
120
10%
100
mn sq.ft.
Projections
RESEARCH
8%
80
6%
60
4%
40
2%
20
0
0%
H1 2014
H2 2014
H1 2015
H2 2015
H1 2016 E
32
33
FIGURE 2
ABSORPTION
7
6
5
4
mn sq.ft
2
1
0
H1 2014
H2 2014
H1 2015
H2 2015
H1 2016E
H2 2015
5.00
SECTOR ANALYSIS
mn sq.ft.
6.07
mn sq.ft.
70%
53%
90,000
50%
120
80,000
70,000
40%
36%
60,000
29%
30%
sq.ft
50%
H1 2015
FIGURE 4
H2 2015
80%
60%
mn. sq.ft.
4.40
FIGURE 3
H2 2014
H2 2014
16%
20%
13%
10%
11% 10%
3% 4%
BFSI*
40,000
30,000
40
20,000
4%
10,000
0
IT/ITeS
80
50,000
Number of deals
RESEARCH
MANUFACTURING
OTHER SERVICES
0
H1 2014
H2 2014
H1 2015
H2 2015
34
35
RESEARCH
SELECT TRANSACTIONS
OCCUPIER
BUILDING
LOCATION
Metric Stream
Hosur Road
90000
Citrix
145000
Resource Pro
86000
Mercedes-Benz
Whitefield
140000
HSBC
RMZ Futura 2
Bannerghatta Road
140000
Tech Mahindra
Electronics City
160000
Cadence
RMZ Ecoworld
200000
IBM
Bhartiya City
Thanisandra Road
400000
Bannerghatta Road
116000
MICRO-MARKETS
Whitefield
36
37
FIGURE 5
H2 2015
59%
60%
50%
40%
31%
33%
30%
24%
20%
14%
10%
10%
9%
3% 6%
6%
4%
0
SBD
CBD & Off
CBD
Source: Knight Frank Research
ORR
PBD
EAST
PBD
SOUTH
0%
0%
PBD
NORTH
1%
PBD
WEST
5.00
mn sq.ft.
4.40
mn. sq.ft.
2014.
On the other hand, office projects
in the CBD and the peripheral
business districts towards the east
remained relatively subdued, with
the majority of the traction taking
place in the ORR, PBD South and
SBD markets.
which aims at having 10,000 startups by 2023, and the New Age
Incubators to promote student
start-ups. The government provides
incubators along with Nasscom,
Microsoft and a number of other
companies that encourage startups within their campus. Moreover,
most major software companies
have their research centres in
Bengaluru. These MNCs help in
accelerating the start-ups either
through mentorship or funding the
entrepreneurs. Most importantly, the
city offers relatively lower rentals for
office space, thereby encouraging
companies to set up their offices
here.
While start-ups have a long way to
go, re-structuring their processes
along the way to arrive at correct
positionings, Bengaluru would
continue to provide a nurturing
environment for these companies
to succeed and, in all likelihood,
remain the start-up capital of India.
RENTAL TREND
The SBD and ORR office markets
witnessed the maximum rise in
rentals during H2 2015, owing
primarily to the strong demand
for office space in the region,
coupled with declining vacancies,
particularly in the ORR.
The weighted average rental values
38
H2 2015
H2 2014
RESEARCH
39
RESEARCH
FIGURE 6
INR / sq.ft./month
50
45
40
Yashwin Bangera
Assistant Vice President - Research
CHENNAI
35
30
H1 2012 H2 2012 H1 2013 H2 2013 H1 2014 H2 2014 H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016E
Source: Knight Frank Research
12 MONTH CHANGE
6 MONTH
CHANGE
7595
6%
5%
SBD
5090
10%
8%
PBD East
3147
4%
0%
PBD South
3148
5%
4%
ORR
4570
10%
7%
H1 2015
H1 2016E
GROWTH
4.00
5.5
38%
6.07
-1%
Vacancy (%)
10%
7%
50.0
55
10%
40
41
RESIDENTIAL MARKET
FIGURE 2
FIGURE 1
ABSORPTION
4,600
4,550
4,500
6,000
4,450
4,000
4,400
4,350
2,000
4,300
4,250
H2 2014
H1 2015
H2 2015
44%
40%
4,650
8,000
50%
50%
4,700
10,000
Number of units
63%
12,000
H1 2014
H2 2015
60%
` / sq ft
LAUNCHES
H1 2015
70%
RESEARCH
H1 2016 E
30%
35%
30%
24%
22%
20%
10%
2%
15%
10%
5%
0%
0
CENTRAL
NORTH
SOUTH
WEST
42
The South and the West micromarkets were the hardest hit in
H2 2015, as they experienced the
worst of the floods. These micromarkets usually attract over 90%
of the development in Chennai,
but H2 2015 saw this share come
down to 80%.
South Chennai still accounted
for half of the units launched
during the period and saw the
bulk of these launches take
place in locations beyond
Navalur and Padur on the OMR.
The relatively more established
H2 2015
5,854
H2 2014
units
7,318
units
H1 2015
9,102
units
43
RESEARCH
FIGURE 3
`2.5 - 5 MN
CENTRAL
NORTH
`5 - 7.5 MN
SOUTH
`7.5 - 10 MN
`10-20 MN
>-20 MN
WEST
LOCATIONS
T. Nagar, Alandur, Nungambakkam, Kodambakkam, Adyar, Kilpauk
West Chennai
South Chennai
North Chennai
FIGURE 4
H1 2015
H2 2015
68%
65%
59%
70%
60%
50%
40%
32%
26% 26%
30%
20%
10%
7%
0%
10%
3% 2% 2%
0
CENTRAL
NORTH
SOUTH
WEST
44
45
H2 2015
8,792
H2 2014
units
10,343
units
to come.
H1 2015
9,091
units
B
A
C
D
27%
65%
46
work.
future as well.
4%
5%
A
CENTRAL
B
NORTH
C
WEST
D
SOUTH
RESEARCH
47
MICRO-MARKET
LOCATIONS
Nungambakkam, R. A. Puram, Alwarpet, T. Nagar,
Mylapore, Royapettah, Kilpauk, Anna Nagar,
Teynampet, Adyar
Central Chennai
West Chennai
South Chennai
FIGURE 5
450
16,000
400
14,000
350
12,000
Number of units
300
250
10,000
200
8,000
150
` / sq ft
LAUNCHES
6,000
100
50
4,000
2,000
H2 2013
H1 2014
H2 2014
H1 2015
H2 2015
Note: Premium markets include locations where the average ticket size of a residential unit
is above `15 mn, are in close proximity to the central business district of the city and have
witnessed new project launches in the preceding three years
48
PREMIUM MARKETS
10
9
8
7
No. of Quarters
PREMIUM MARKET
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
MAR-14
DEC-13
JUN-14
DEC-14
MAR-14
JUN-15
SEP-15
DEC-15
WEST
NORTH
SOUTH
13
Age of unsold inventory in quarters
RESEARCH
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
5
10
11
12
13
QTS
12 MONTH CHANGE
6 MONTH CHANGE
Chennai
4,596
1.5%
1%
Premium markets
14,474
7%
6%
49
50
12 MONTH
CHANGE
6 MONTH
CHANGE
10,50011,900
3%
1%
Central
16,50017,800
1%
1%
Kilpauk
Central
14,80015,800
4%
0%
T. Nagar
Central
18,00019,300
4%
1%
Alandur
Central
7,0007,500
3%
2%
Porur
West
5,2005,500
3%
2%
Ambattur
West
4,1004,600
2%
1%
Mogappair
West
6,2006,700
2%
2%
Iyyappanthangal
West
4,0004,500
2%
2%
Sriperumbudur
West
2,7003,200
2%
1%
Perumbakkam
South
4,1004,500
1%
0%
Chrompet
South
4,2004,700
2%
0%
Sholinganallur
South
4,5005,500
2%
1%
Guduvancheri
South
3,2003,700
1%
0%
Kelambakkam
South
3,5003,900
0%
0%
Tondiarpet
North
4,5004,800
2%
2%
Kolathur
North
4,8005,500
2%
1%
Madhavaram
North
4,5005,000
2%
0%
Perambur
North
6,2006,500
2%
3%
LOCATION
MICRO-MARKET
Anna Nagar
Central
Adyar
RESEARCH
H1 2015
H1 2016E
GROWTH
Launches (units)
9,102
8,500
-7%
Absorption (units)
9,091
9,000
-1%
4,532
4,662
2.9%
51
OCCUPIED STOCK
VACANCY (RHS)
70
25%
FIGURE 2
ABSORPTION
4.0
3.5
3.1
3.0
2.4
2.5
mn sq.ft
OFFICE MARKET
1.8
2.0
1.5
2.2
20%
2.0
1.5
1.1
1.0
60
RESEARCH
0.9
1.2
1.4
0.5
50
mn sq.ft.
0
15%
40
H1 2015
H2 2015
H1 2016E
30
10%
20
5%
10
SECTOR ANALYSIS
FIGURE 3
0%
H1 2014
H2 2014
H1 2015
H2 2015
H1 2016 E
52
H2 2014
H1 2014
H1 2015
H2 2015
70%
60%
54%
50%
46%
40%
36%
30%
20%
26% 27%
14%
15%15%
18%
16%
19%
13%
10%
0
BFSI*
IT/ITeS
MANUFACTURING
OTHER SERVICES
H2 2015
3.1
H2 2014
mn sq.ft.
2.2
mn. sq.ft.
H1 2015
2.3
mn sq.ft.
53
40,000
100
35,000
90
30,000
80
70
60
20,000
50
15,000
40
30
10,000
Number of deals
25,000
sq.ft
20
5,000
10
0
H1 2014
H2 2014
H1 2015
H2 2015
MICRO-MARKETS
FIGURE 4
RESEARCH
PBD Ambattur
Perungudi, Taramani
OMR beyond Perungudi Toll Plaza, GST Road
Ambattur
SELECT TRANSACTIONS
BUILDING
OCCUPIER
LOCATION
Yes Bank
Ambattur
700,000
Shriram IT Gateway
Accenture
Perungulathur
225,000
Chennai One
Astra Zeneca
Thoraipakkam
150,000
Shriram IT Gateway
Sutherland
Perungulathur
125,000
SP Infocity
Ericsson
Kandanchavadi
120,000
Scope International
Sholinganallur
90,000
Access Healthcare
Ambattur
75,000
SP Infocity
Freshdesk
Perungudi
68,000
SP Infocity
Ford
Perungudi
63,000
SP Infocity
World Bank
Perungudi
63,000
54
55
RENTAL TREND
FIGURE 5
H2 2015
FIGURE 6
50%
45%
54
38%
40%
52
31%
30%
26%
25%
15%
10%
25%
20%
15%
INR / sq.ft./month
mn sq.ft
35%
20%
RESEARCH
17%
14%
9%
5%
5%
0
CBD
SBD
PBD Ambattur
SBD OMR
50
48
46
44
42
H1 2013
H2 2013
H1 2014
H2 2014
H1 2015
H2 2015
H1 2016E
H2 2015
3.1
H2 2014
mn sq.ft.
2.2
mn. sq.ft.
H1 2015
2.3
mn sq.ft.
56
12 MONTH CHANGE
6 MONTH
CHANGE
6095
4%
2%
2535
3%
1%
SBD OMR
4580
3%
1%
PBD Ambattur
2835
3%
2%
SBD
5065
3%
2%
57
RESEARCH
H1 2015
H1 2016E
GROWTH
0.9
1.4
44%
2.4
20%
19%
13.4%
50
52
Vacancy (%)
Weighted average rental (` / sq ft / month)
4%
Yashwin Bangera
We believe that the absorption
levels will continue their uptrend
in H1 2016, as occupier interest
remains strong at the end of the
current period and no significant
supply is scheduled to come online
in the short term.
58
HYDERABAD
59
RESIDENTIAL MARKET
HYDERABAD RESIDENTIAL MARKET LAUNCHES,
ABSORPTION AND PRICE TRENDS
FIGURE 1
ABSORPTION
3,700
9,000
Number of units
8,000
3,600
7,000
6,000
3,500
5,000
3,400
4,000
3,000
` / sq ft
Steady absorption,
coupled with falling
demand, has reduced the
unsold inventory levels to
31,480 units the lowest
since 2010
RESEARCH
3,300
2,000
3,200
1,000
0
3,100
H1 2014
H2 2014
H1 2015
H2 2015
H1 2016 E
FIGURE 2
80%
MICRO-MARKETS OF HYDERABAD
70%
MICRO-MARKET
LOCATIONS
H1 2015
H2 2015
70%
66%
60%
58%
50%
HMR Central
40%
HMR West
30%
HMR East
20%
10%
HMR North
HMR South
18%
12% 11%
15%
8%
1% 1%
5%
6%
12%
15%
3%
0
CENTRAL
EAST
NORTH
SOUTH
WEST
60
61
RESEARCH
5,740
H2 2014
units
5,151
H2 2015
FIGURE 4
H1 2015
H2 2015
80%
units
70%
H1 2015
60%
5,457
50%
units
40%
30%
20%
10%
12%
11% 10%
13% 12%
8%
12% 13%
17%
5% 7% 5%
0
CENTRAL
EAST
NORTH
SOUTH
WEST
H2 2015
7,780
H2 2014
units
7,829
units
FIGURE 3
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
< `2.5 MN
CENTRAL
`2.5 - 5 MN
EAST
62
`5 - 7.5 MN
NORTH
`7.5 - 10 MN
SOUTH
`10-20 MN
WEST
>-20 MN
H1 2015
7,123
units
63
RESEARCH
FIGURE 5
5%
14%
15%
60%
Number of units
LAUNCHES
6%
ABSORPTION
1,000
5,850
900
5,800
800
5,750
700
5,700
600
5,650
500
5,600
400
5,550
300
5,500
200
5,450
100
5,400
` / sq ft
A
CENTRAL
B
EAST
C
NORTH
D
SOUTH
E
WEST
5,350
H2 2013
H1 2014
H2 2014
H1 2015
H2 2015
Note: Premium markets include locations where the average ticket size of a residential unit
is above ` 15 mn, are in close proximity to the central business district of the city and have
witnessed new project launches in the preceding three years
PREMIUM MARKET
HYDERABAD MARKET FUNDAMENTALS
Hyderabad is arguably the most
an improvement in sentiments
64
MICRO-MARKET
HMR Central
HMR West
LOCATIONS
Banjara Hills, Begumpet, Jubilee Hills, Srinagar
Colony, Somajiguda
Madhapur
65
FIGURE 7
FIGURE 6
HMR CENTRAL
HMR EAST
HMR NORTH
HMR SOUTH
HMR WEST
22
PREMIUM MARKETS
20
12
18
No. of Quarters
RESEARCH
10
16
14
12
10
4
8
2
0
DEC-13
MAR-14 JUN-14
DEC-14
MAR-14
JUN-15
SEP-15
DEC-15
66
4
0
10
15
20
25
30
QTS
inventory.
East Hyderabad has a QTS of
just 5 quarters, second only to
the Central zone and much below
the 8.4-quarter average for the
Hyderabad market as a whole.
It shows the increasing interest
that this zone is attracting due
to the focus on the completion
of the ORR and the promised
development along the Warangal
highway.
12 MONTH CHANGE
6 MONTH CHANGE
Hyderabad city
3,610
3.1%
2.9%
Premium markets
5,825
0.6%
0.3%
67
12 MONTH
CHANGE
6 MONTH
CHANGE
LOCATION
MICRO-MARKET
Begumpet
Central
4,5006,000
4%
3%
Banjara Hills
Central
7,0009,000
5%
3%
Jubilee Hills
Central
4,5006,200
6%
2%
Madhapur
Central
5,8007,800
5%
0%
Uppal
East
2,6002,800
4%
3%
L. B. Nagar
East
2,5002,900
4%
4%
Nacharam
East
2,2002,800
3%
3%
Kompally
North
2,2003,100
2%
6%
Quthbullapur
North
2,1002,600
-3%
3%
Shamirpet
North
2,0002,400
-1%
1%
Shamshabad
South
2,3003,000
2%
2%
Bandlaguda
South
2,2003,100
2%
2%
Rajendranagar
South
2,1003,100
1%
2%
Kondapur
West
4,0005,200
2%
2%
Gachibowli
West
3,8004,750
5%
4%
Manikonda
West
3,4004,500
5%
3%
Kukatpally
West
2,8004,000
6%
3%
Madeenaguda
West
2,6003,350
3%
5%
H1 2015
H1 2016E
CHA
Launches (units)
5,457
5,300
-3%
Absorption (units)
7,123
7,450
5%
3,510
3,620
3%
68
OCCUPIED STOCK
VACANCY (RHS)
20%
70
18%
60
16%
50
14%
12%
40
10%
30
8%
6%
20
4%
10
2%
0%
H1 2014
H2 2014
H1 2015
H2 2015
H1 2016 E
OFFICE MARKET
mn sq.ft.
RESEARCH
69
FIGURE 2
FIGURE 4
ABSORPTION
3.5
3.0
3.0
1.9
1.9
2.0
100
90
60,000
1.9 1.8
1.5 1.5
sq.ft
1.5
70,000
2.4
2.5
mn sq.ft
3.1
2.8
1.0
80
50,000
70
40,000
60
50
30,000
40
30
20,000
0.5
20
10,000
0
H1 2014
H2 2014
H1 2015
H2 2015
H1 2016 E
10
0
H1 2014
Number of deals
RESEARCH
H2 2014
H1 2015
H2 2015
SECTOR ANALYSIS
FIGURE 3
H1 2015
H2 2015
70%
60%
49%
50%
47%
40%
40%
48%
39%
35%
30%
17%
20%
10%
10%
9%
2% 1%
2%
0
BFSI
IT/ITeS
MANUFACTURING
OTHER SERVICES
H2 2015
3.1
mn sq.ft.
H2 2014
2.8
mn. sq.ft.
H1 2015
1.5
mn sq.ft.
SELECT TRANSACTIONS
BUILDING
OCCUPIER
LOCATION
Raheja
Qualcomm
Madhapur
388,500
Divyasree Orion
Salesforce
Raidurgam
200,000
Raheja Mindspace
Unitedhealth group
Madhapur
150,000
Divyasree Orion
NTT Data
Raidurgam
120,000
Divyasree Trinity
J.P. Morgan
Madhapur
120,000
Signature Towers
Income Tax
Kondapur
112,000
Fernandez Hospital
Banjara Hills
100,000
Flagstone Towers
ValueMomentum
Gachibowli
100,000
Divyasree Trinity
Deloitte
Madhapur
92,000
Divyasree Omega
Deloitte
Madhapur
92,000
Raheja Building 11
J.P. Morgan
Madhapur
87,700
70
71
FIGURE 5
H2 2014
MICRO-MARKETS
Banjara Hills, Jubilee Hills, Begumpet, Ameerpet, Somajiguda, Himayat Nagar, Raj
Bhavan Road, Punjagutta
H2 2015
120%
96%
100%
76%
80%
SBD
RESEARCH
PBD West
PBD East
Uppal, Pocharam
40%
20%
0% 12%
4%
0
CBD & Off-CBD
SBD
11%
0% 1%
PBD
PBD EAST
H2 2015
3.1
mn sq.ft.
H2 2014
2.8
mn. sq.ft.
H1 2015
1.5
mn sq.ft.
72
73
RENTAL TREND
FIGURE 6
H1 2015
H1 2016E
GROWTH
1.5
1.9
27%
1.5
1.8
23%
16%
14%
40
43
Vacancy (%)
42
INR / sq.ft./month
RESEARCH
40
41
7%
39
38
37
36
35
34
33
H1 2013
H2 2013
H1 2014
H2 2014
H1 2015
H2 2015
H1 2016E
Approximately 1.9 mn sq ft of
quality office space is expected to
come online in H1 2016 and will be
instrumental in boosting absorption
numbers to approximately 1.8 mn
sq ft a 23% growth over H1 2015.
A steady demand pipeline, coupled
with limited office space deliveries
hitting the market in the following
six months, should push vacancy
levels down to an estimated 14%,
and consequently, drive rental
growth by a further 7% YoY, from
`40 per sq ft per month in H1 2015
to approximately `43 per sq ft per
month by H1 2016.
12 MONTH CHANGE
6 MONTH
CHANGE
4449
5%
2%
SBD
4048
9%
6%
PBD West
3438
7%
3%
PBD East
2732
1.5%
1%
74
75
RESEARCH
RESIDENTIAL MARKET
KOLKATA RESIDENTIAL MARKET LAUNCHES,
ABSORPTION AND PRICE TRENDS
FIGURE 1
14,000
4,000
12,000
8,000
3,500
6,000
` / sq ft
10,000
Number of units
KOLKATA
ABSORPTION
4,000
2,000
0
3,000
H1 2014
H2 2014
H1 2015
H2 2015
H1 2016 E
76
77
H1 2015
H2 2015
60%
49%
50%
42%
40%
32%
30%
28%
27%
20%
20%
15%
10%
7% 8%
10%
0%
32%
28%
0% 0% 1%
CENTRAL
EAST
NORTH
RAJARHAT
SOUTH
RESEARCH
FIGURE 3
H2 2015
50%
10,680
40%
units
H2 2014
20%
10%
11,891
units
30%
< 2.5 MN
H1 2015
2.5 - 5 MN
CENTRAL
8,372
EAST
5 - 7.5 MN
RAJARHAT
7.5 - 10 MN
NORTH
>10 MN
SOUTH
units
78
MICRO-MARKET
Central
LOCATIONS
Park Street, Rawdon Street, A.J.C. Bose Road, Minto Park, Elgin Road
East
North
Baguiati, Ultadanga, Jessore Road, Shyambazar, Lake Town, B.T. Road, VIP Road
Rajarhat
South
79
RESEARCH
FIGURE 4
H1 2015
H2 2015
60%
50%
46%
40%
35%
32% 30%
30%
30%
29%
26% 25%
21%
20%
8% 8% 7%
10%
1% 1% 1%
0%
CENTRAL
EAST
NORTH
RAJARHAT
SOUTH
H2 2015
8,036
units
H2 2014
6,245
units
H1 2015
5,883
units
80
81
B
A
A
CENTRAL
B
EAST
C
NORTH
D
RAJARHAT
E
SOUTH
C
D
RESEARCH
0%
Central
7%
East
27%
Rajarhat
32%
New Town
Ballygunge, Alipore, Tollygunge, Bhowanipore, Jodhpur
Park
South
34%
PREMIUM LOCATIONS
FIGURE 5
82
Number of units
ABSORPTION
800
9,750
700
9,700
600
9,650
500
9,600
400
9,550
300
9,500
200
9,450
100
9,400
` / sq ft
LAUNCHES
9,350
H2 2013
H1 2014
H2 2014
H1 2015
H2 2015
Note: Premium markets include locations where the average ticket size of a residential unit is
above `15 mn, are in close proximity to the central business district of the city and have witnessed
new project launches in the preceding three years
of premium projects.
On the other hand, H2 2015 saw an
improvement of 4% in absorption
compared to the same period
in 2014. This bodes well for the
premium market of the city.
The weighted average price growth
YOY in the premium segment
remained almost constant, with
a marginal improvement of 1%
observed in H2 2015 over H2
2014. This relative stability in the
weighted average price could be
attributed to the increase in the
sales volume during the period,
coupled with constricted launches.
83
PREMIUM MARKETS
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
DEC-13
MAR-14 JUN-14
DEC-14
MAR-14
JUN-15
SEP-15
DEC-15
FIGURE 7
14
13
12
11
likely to continue.
10
RAJARHAT
EAST
CENTRAL
NORTH
SOUTH
9
8
7
6
84
FIGURE 6
No. of Quarters
RESEARCH
10
12
QTS
14
85
Projections
H1 2015
H1 2016E
GROWTH
Launches (units)
8,372
10,760
29%
Absorption (units)
5,883
8,345
42%
3,495
3,570
2%
LOCATION
12 MONTH CHANGE
6 MONTH CHANGE
Kolkata
3,535
1%
1%
Premium markets
9,699
1%
2%
12 MONTH
CHANGE
6 MONTH
CHANGE
12,00020,000
0%
0%
Central
10,00019,500
0%
0%
Ballygunge
South
8,50018,000
0%
0%
Tollygunge
South
6,50016,500
0%
0%
Behala
South
3,3004,800
1%
0%
Narendrapur
South
2,6004,300
2%
0%
Kankurgachi
East
6,0009,100
1%
0%
Salt Lake
East
5,0008,000
0%
0%
Rajarhat
4,3007,000
0%
0%
Madhyamgram
North
2,5503,300
0%
0%
BT Road
North
3,2004,500
0%
0%
Jessore Road
North
4,3005,600
2%
0%
LOCATION
MICRO-MARKET
Park Street
Central
Rawdon Street
RESEARCH
86
87
RESEARCH
RESIDENTIAL MARKET
MMR RESIDENTIAL MARKET LAUNCHES, ABSORPTION
AND PRICE TRENDS
Going forward, in H1
2016, infrastructure
thrust, the improving office
market and stable house
prices will aid the housing
market revival. Amidst
the demand revival, new
launches are to be lower
and prices, stagnant on
account of the inventory
backlog.
FIGURE 1
Vivek Rathi
9,000
40,000
35,000
30,000
20,000
15,000
7,000
` / sq ft
8,000
25,000
Number of units
MUMBAI
ABSORPTION
10,000
5,000
0
6,000
H1 2014
H2 2014
H1 2015
H2 2015
H1 2016 E
88
89
FIGURE 3
FIGURE 2
100%
H1 2015
40%
36%
Number of units
30%
28%
26%
25%
25%
10%
7%
10%
4%
2%
0% 0%
CENTRAL
MUMBAI
CENTRAL
SUBURBS
70%
60%
CENTRAL SUBURBS
50%
CENTRAL MUMBAI
20%
13%
12%13%
5%
30%
19%
16%
15%
SOUTH MUMBAI
80%
40%
23%
20%
20%
WESTERN SUBURBS
THANE
90%
H2 2015
35%
RESEARCH
NAVI
MUMBAI
PERIPHERAL
CENTRAL
SUBURBS
PERIPHERAL
WESTERN
SUBURBS
14%14%
12%
10%
< 2.5 MN
5%
2.5 - 5 MN
5 - 7.5 MN
7.5 - 10 MN
10 - 20 MN
>20 MN
0% 0% 1%
SOUTH
MUMBAI
THANE
WESTERN
SUBURBS
H1 2015
H2 2015
40%
35%
H2 2015
units
H2 2014
26,833
units
30%
Number of units
20,776
32%31%
25%
21%22%
21%
20%
17%
16%16%
13%13%
12%
15%
8%
10%
H1 2015
28%
10% 9%
7% 7% 9%
5%
2% 2% 2%
18,887
0% 0% 1%
0
CENTRAL
MUMBAI
units
CENTRAL
SUBURBS
NAVI
MUMBAI
PERIPHERAL
CENTRAL
SUBURBS
PERIPHERAL
WESTERN
SUBURBS
SOUTH
MUMBAI
THANE
WESTERN
SUBURBS
90
H2 2015
34,135
units
H2 2014
H1 2015
36,505
28,446
units
units
91
LOCATIONS
Central Mumbai
Central Suburbs
Navi Mumbai
South Mumbai
Thane
Western Suburbs
residential markets.
92
RESEARCH
93
RESEARCH
30%
ABSORPTION
2,000
19%
15%
35,000
33,000
1,500
14%
11%
7%
3%
31,000
1,000
29,000
500
1%
` / sq ft
LAUNCHES
Number of units
A
PERIPHERAL CENTRAL SUBURBS
B
PERIPHERAL WESTERN SUBURBS
C
NAVI MUMBAI
D
WESTERN SUBURBS
E
CENTRAL SUBURBS
F
THANE
G
CENTRAL MUMBAI
H
SOUTH MUMBAI
27,000
25,000
H1 2013
H2 2013
H1 2014
H2 2014
H1 2015
Note: Premium markets include locations where the average ticket size of a residential unit is above `50 mn, are in close proximity to the central
business district of the city and have witnessed new project launches in the preceding three years
market.
Besides the factors that impacted
the overall MMR market, the large
ticket size in these markets made
buyers draw value proposition
parallels with the relatively
affordable markets in the Western
and Central Suburbs. Even as new
launches jumped sixfold, the price
growth in the premium markets
remained muted, at just 2% in H2
2015 over H2 2014.
MICRO-MARKET
PREMIUM LOCATIONS
South Mumbai
Central Mumbai
14
No. of quarters
PREMIUM MARKETS
12
10
8
6
4
MMR CITY
Western Suburbs
0
DEC-15
SEP-15
JUN-15
MAR-15
DEC-14
SEP-14
JUNE-14
MAR-13
DEC-13
94
95
FIGURE 8
17
CENTRAL MUMBAI
CENTRAL SUBURBS
NAVI MUMBAI
PERIPHERAL CENTRAL SUBURBS
20
14
LOCATION
MICRO-MARKET
Lower Parel
Central Mumbai
12 MONTH
CHANGE
6 MONTH
CHANGE
25,00036,000
3%
0%
Worli
Central Mumbai
31,00055,000
-1%
-2%
Ghatkopar
Central Suburbs
12,00022,000
4%
3%
Mulund
Central Suburbs
10,50014,000
4%
0%
Powai
Central Suburbs
14,00020,000
6%
3%
Panvel
Navi Mumbai
4,5006,500
-1%
2%
Kharghar
Navi Mumbai
6,5009,500
2%
1%
11
Vashi
Navi Mumbai
10,00015,000
2%
2%
Badlapur
2,8003,500
0%
0%
Dombivali
4,5006,000
1%
0%
Mira Road
5,5007,500
0%
0%
Virar
4,5005,500
0%
0%
5
5
11
14
17
20
QTS
Source: Knight Frank Research
12 MONTH CHANGE
6 MONTH CHANGE
MMR
7,994
3%
0%
Premium markets
33,100
2%
0%
Tardeo
South Mumbai
40,00060,000
0%
0%
Ghodbunder Road
Thane
6,00010,000
2%
2%
Naupada
Thane
14,00018,000
2%
2%
Andheri
Western Suburbs
14,00022,000
3%
0%
Bandra (W)
Western Suburbs
40,00060,000
0%
0%
Borivali
Western Suburbs
11,00015,000
1%
1%
Dahisar
Western Suburbs
8,50010,000
3%
2%
Goregaon
Western Suburbs
13,00015,000
1%
1%
H1 2015
H1 2016E
CHANGE
Launches (units)
18,887
16,998
-10%
Absorption (units)
28,446
29,868
5%
7,994
7,994
0%
96
RESEARCH
97
OFFICE MARKET
SECTOR ANALYSIS
FIGURE 3
OCCUPIED STOCK
50%
23%
22%
100
21%
80
46%
20%
40%
40%
40%
30%
120
mn sq.ft.
H2 2015
60%
VACANCY (RHS)
140
26%
26%
16%
22%
24%
17%
17%
15%
10%
10%
0
60
20%
19%
20
0
18%
H1 2014
H2 2014
H1 2015
H2 2015
H1 2016 E
BFSI*
NEW COMPLETION
ABSORPTION
7.0
6.4
6.0
5.0
4.8
5.0
MANUFACTURING
OTHER SERVICES
2.9
2.5
2.5
2.3
3.5
4.0
2.9
3.0
IT/ITeS
Source: Knight Frank Research
40
mn sq.ft
H1 2015
70%
FIGURE 1
In 2015, demand
exceeded supply in the
MMR for the first time
since 2008, as only 5.8
mn sq ft of new project
completions were recorded
against an occupier
demand of 7.5 mn sq ft.
RESEARCH
2.8
2.0
1.0
0
H1 2014
H2 2014
H1 2015
H2 2015
H2 2015
H1 2016E
5.0
98
mn sq.ft.
H2 2014
4.8
mn. sq.ft.
H1 2015
2.5
mn sq.ft.
99
SECTOR ANALYSIS
FIGURE 4
BUSINESS DISTRICTS
40,000
160
30,000
120
20,000
80
10,000
40
0
H1 2014
H2 2014
H1 2015
Number of deals
sq.ft
RESEARCH
MICRO-MARKETS
Nariman Point, Cuffe Parade, Ballard Estate, Fort, Mahalaxmi, Worli
Central Mumbai
SBD West
SBD Central
PBD
H2 2015
SELECT TRANSACTIONS
BUILDING
OCCUPIER
LOCATION
TCS
Thane
Godrej BKC
Abbott India
BKC
445,000
G: Corp
Quintiles
Thane
150,000
L&T Seawoods
Navi Mumbai
130,000
Lighthall
Piramal
Andheri East
100,000
Umang
Malad
100,000
Mindspace
IDBI
Airoli
90,000
Kalpataru Prime
CMA CGM
Thane
65,000
Ajanta Pharma
Andheri East
60,000
Yes Bank
Lower Parel
60,000
1,800,000
100
101
RENTAL TREND
FIGURE 5
RESEARCH
FIGURE 6
H2 2015
60%
53%
140
50%
32%
30%
20%
16%
24%
21%21%
20%
14%
12%
10%
3% 2%
9%
7%
INR / sq.ft./month
Number of units
130
40%
120
110
100
7%
90
0
CENTRAL
MUMBAI
CENTRAL
SUBURBS
NAVI
MUMBAI
PERIPHERAL
CENTRAL
SUBURBS
PERIPHERAL
WESTERN
SUBURBS
SOUTH
MUMBAI
H2 2015
5.0
mn sq.ft.
4.8
80
H1 2012 H2 2012 H1 2013 H2 2013 H1 2014 H2 2014 H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016E
Source: Knight Frank Research
H2 2014
THANE
mn. sq.ft.
102
BUSINESS DISTRICT
12 MONTH CHANGE
6 MONTH
CHANGE
210310
-4%
2%
160260
-2%
-2%
Central Mumbai
150190
0%
2%
PBD
5070
5%
3%
SBD Central
80130
-4%
-1%
SBD West
90130
3%
3%
103
With macroeconomic
factors such as the
slowdown in China, which
has impacted global
growth, the India office
market is expected to
maintain a business-asusual scenario in H1 2016.
Knight Frank estimates the
NCR office leasing to clock
approximately 3.5 mn sq
ft in H1 2016 with rentals
firming up at key locations
that offer quality office
space.
104
RESEARCH
H1 2015
H1 2016E
CHANGE
2.3
2.9
26%
2.5
2.8
9%
21.9%
19.7%
117
123
Vacancy (%)
Weighted average rental (` / sq ft /
month)
5%
Ankita Sood
Consultant - Research
manpower-intensive industry to
open offices here. The sectors
large share in the latest demand
number bodes well and has further
improved the demand outlook.
Encouragement in the office
segment would also occur with
the rising private equity interest
and the shaping up pre-REITlaunch environment. This will boost
supply-side aspirations to start
considering new office projects.
NCR
105
50,000
4,600
45,000
4,550
Number of units
40,000
35,000
4,500
30,000
25,000
4,450
20,000
` / sq ft
LAUNCHES
4,400
15,000
10,000
4,350
5,000
0
4,300
H1 2014
H2 2014
H1 2015
H2 2015
H1 2016 E
106
Along with
macroeconomic factors,
policy fallacies, such as
the opening up of new
land for development,
allotment of group housing
licences in areas with
no infrastructure, project
delays due to litigations
and the liquidity crunch,
and stagnant incomes,
have affected NCRs real
estate appetite adversely.
The three-year muted
price growth indicates
that residential real
estate is facing a strong
resistance to unattractive
and unaffordable prices in
NCR.
FIGURE 2
H1 2015
H2 2015
60%
Number of units
RESIDENTIAL MARKET
RESEARCH
51%
50%
41%
40%
41%
27%
30%
20%
17% 17%
12%
18%
GHAZIABAD
GREATER
NOIDA
27%
14%16% 14%
10%
0
0% 2% 0%
1% 1% 1%
DELHI
FARIDABAD
GURGAON
NOIDA
H2 2015
34,000
units
H2 2014
45,000
units
H1 2015
29,460
units
107
RESEARCH
FIGURE 3
`2.5 - 5 MN
GURGAON
`5 - 7.5 MN
GREATER NOIDA
`7.5 - 10 MN
GHAZIABAD
FARIDABAD
`10-20 MN
DELHI
H1 2015
H2 2015
Number of units
60%
50%
44% 43%44%
40%
30%
20% 20% 21%
20%
19%19% 19%
10%
0
0% 1% 0%
2% 2% 2%
DELHI
FARIDABAD
108
GHAZIABAD
GREATER
NOIDA
GURGAON
NOIDA
H2 2015
23,800
units
H2 2014
20,630
units
H1 2015
25,000
units
109
B
A
A
DELHI
B
FARIDABAD
C
GHAZIABAD
D
GREATER NOIDA
E
GURGAON
F
NOIDA
C
D
RESEARCH
1%
3%
14%
41%
24%
17%
110
111
Premium locations
FIGURE 6
NCR
Noida
RESEARCH
Sectors 16 B, 100
PREMIUM MARKETS
35
30
INR / sq.ft./month
FIGURE 5
ABSORPTION
600
17,000
16,500
300
DEC-13
16,000
MAR-14 JUN-14
DEC-14
MAR-14
JUN-15
SEP-15
DEC-15
15,000
H1 2014
H2 2014
H1 2015
H2 2015
Note: Premium markets include locations where the average ticket size of a residential unit
is above `30 mn, are in close proximity to the central business district of the city and have
witnessed new project launches in the preceding three years
FIGURE 7
DELHI
FARIDABAD
GHAZIABAD
GREATER NOIDA
NOIDA
GURGAON
18
Age of inventory in quarters
H2 2013
112
15
0
200
100
20
10
400
` / sq ft
Number of units
500
25
16
14
12
10
8
6
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
QTS
113
PRICE RANGE IN
H2 2015 (`/SQ FT)
12 MONTH
CHANGE
6 MONTH
CHANGE
NCR
4,578
3%
1%
Premium markets
16,373
0%
-4%
Projections
H1 2015
H1 2016E
Growth
Launches (units)
29,460
28,000
-5%
Absorption (units)
25,000
26,000
4%
4,511
4,580
2%
PRICE RANGE
12 MONTH 6 MONTH
MICRO-MARKET IN H1 2015 (`/
CHANGE CHANGE
SQ FT)
Yamuna
Expressway
Greater Noida
Sector Chi V
Greater Noida
3,4483,514
2%
2%
Sector Pi
Greater Noida
3,5453,576
1%
1%
Sector 16 B
Greater Noida
3,4443,497
1%
1%
Sector 78
Noida
5,6005,627
-1%
0%
Sector 70
Noida
4,0004,083
2%
0%
Sector 117
Noida
4,8504,905
1%
0%
Sector 131
Noida
5,9006,000
2%
0%
Sector 37
Gurgaon
5,2435,600
-4%
0%
Sector 49
Gurgaon
7,80010,900
0%
0%
Sector 67
Gurgaon
9,2229,255
7%
0%
Sector 79
Gurgaon
4,5006,500
-2%
0%
Sector 82
Gurgaon
3,7005,900
0%
0%
NH-24 Bypass
Ghaziabad
2,8422,888
3%
2%
Raj Nagar
Extension
Ghaziabad
2,8842,959
3%
1%
Crossings NH24
Ghaziabad
3,2003,242
0%
2%
Sector 37
Faridabad
7,9008,137
3%
0%
Sector 75
Faridabad
3,5503,636
1%
1%
Sector 87
Faridabad
3,4483,600
1%
0%
114
RESEARCH
3,2953,557
3%
0%
115
OFFICE MARKET
SECTOR ANALYSIS
FIGURE 1
OCCUPIED STOCK
VACANCY (RHS)
160
22%
140
21%
120
20%
100
mn sq.ft.
19%
18%
FIGURE 3
80
60
40
16%
20
0
15%
H1 2014
H2 2014
H1 2015
H2 2015
H1 2016 E
H1 2015
H2 2015
60%
50%
44%
22%
11%
10%
7.0
43%
30%30%
20%
ABSORPTION
48%
37%
30%
H2 2014
70%
40%
FIGURE 2
8%
9%
14%
5%
6.0
IT/ITeS
5.0
mn sq.ft
BFSI*
MANUFACTURING
OTHER SERVICES
RESEARCH
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0
H1 2014
H2 2014
H1 2015
H2 2015
H2 2015
H1 2016E
3.7
116
mn sq.ft.
H2 2014
4.1
mn. sq.ft.
H1 2015
3.7
mn sq.ft.
117
40,000
200
30,000
150
20,000
100
10,000
50
segment in NCR.
sector.
0
H1 2014
H2 2014
H1 2015
H2 2015
Small- to mid-size
transactions dominated
the leasing activity in NCR
in H2 2015. Approximately
57% of the total number
of transactions in H2 2015
involved floor plates of less
than 12,500 sq ft.
However, a few large-sized
transactions by companies
such as Vivo, Google,
Reliance Jio and arvato
pushed up the overall
absorption levels in the
second half of the year.
118
Number of deals
sq.ft
RESEARCH
SELECT TRANSACTIONS
OCCUPIER
BUILDING
LOCATION
Vivo
293,000
Signature Towers II
NH-8, Gurgaon
207,161
arvato India
Phase V
100,000
SpiceJet
Phase IV
100,000
Worldmark
98,000
Reliance Jio
92,000
Building 9 A
80,000
Mercer
ASF Insignia
69,000
Groupon
61,410
IGATE
Infospace 2
60,000
119
OCCUPIER
BUILDING
LOCATION
Hike
Worldmark
59,585
Bain Consulting
DLF Building 8
52,000
Grofers
Plot 81
50,000
UrbanClap
Sector 18
35,000
RESEARCH
Uber
33,000
PWC
Building 8C
30,647
Airbus
Worldmark
30,000
Gaadi.com
Plot No. 49
25,000
Delhivery
Veritas Tower
12,000
EastTower
7,650
H2 2015
3.7
mn sq.ft.
H2 2014
4.1
mn. sq.ft.
MICRO-MARKETS
CBD Delhi
Connaught Place, Barakhamba Road, Kasturba Gandhi Marg and Minto Road
SBD Delhi
Nehru Place, Saket, Jasola, Bhikaji Cama Place, Mohan Cooperative and Aerocity
MG Road, NH-8, Golf Course Road and Golf Course Extension Road
DLF Cyber City, Sohna Road, Udyog Vihar and Gwal Pahari
Manesar
Noida
Faridabad
FIGURE 5
H1 2015
Number of units
60%
61%
56%
50%
40%
30%
23% 23%
20%
13%10%
10%
3% 2%
0
0% 1%
CBD
PDB
DELHI
FARIDABAD
Source: Knight Frank Research
120
8%
0%
PBD
GURGAON
PBD
NOIDA
SBD
DELHI
PBD- GREATER
NOIDA
121
GURGAON
NOIDA
12 MONTH CHANGE
6 MONTH
CHANGE
CBD Delhi
208350
4%
1%
SBD Delhi
93163
3%
4%
94159
18%
5%
63134
7%
5%
2535
0%
0%
Noida
4464
10%
1%
Faridabad
4555
0%
0%
RENTAL TREND
66
PROJECTIONS
H1 2015
H1 2016E
GROWTH
5.5
4.5
-18%
3.7
3.5
-5%
20.7%
21.5%
62
67
64
INR / sq.ft./month
9%
68
62
60
58
56
54
52
50
H1 2012 H2 2012 H1 2013 H2 2013 H1 2014 H2 2014 H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016E
122
Vacancy (%)
FIGURE 6
RESEARCH
Despite macroeconomic
factors, such as the
slowdown in China, which
has impacted global
growth, the India office
market is expected to
maintain a business-asusual scenario in H1 2016.
Knight Frank estimates the
NCR office leasing to clock
approximately 3.5 mn sq
ft in H1 2016, with rentals
firming up at key locations
that offer quality office
space.
123
RESEARCH
RESIDENTIAL MARKET
PUNE RESIDENTIAL MARKET LAUNCHES, ABSORPTION
AND PRICE TRENDS
FIGURE 1
Hetal Bachkaniwala
Vice President - Research
25,000
5,000
4,800
15,000
10,000
` / sq ft
20,000
Number of units
PUNE
ABSORPTION
4,600
5,000
0
4,400
H1 2014
H2 2014
H1 2015
H2 2015
H1 2016 E
124
125
FIGURE 2
H1 2015
RESEARCH
H2 2015
45%
40%
40%
35%
32%
30%
29%
30%
MICRO-MARKET
32%
Central
24%
25%
20%
17%
15%
15%
22%
20%
19%
13%
10%
5%
2%
4%
1%
LOCATIONS
Koregaon Park, Boat Club Road, Erandwane, Deccan, Kothrud, Model Colony
East
West
North
South
0%
CENTRAL
EAST
WEST
NORTH
SOUTH
2.5 - 5 MN
CENTRAL
EAST
5 - 7.5 MN
7.5 - 10 MN
WEST
10 - 20 MN
NORTH
>20 MN
SOUTH
H2 2015
18,135
units
H2 2014
16,700
units
H1 2015
12,760
units
126
127
FIGURE 4
H1 2015
H2 2015
45%
40%
35%
30%
30%
26% 27%
25%
24%
23%23%
18%
20%
22%
24%
15%
10%
5%
2% 2% 1%
0%
CENTRAL
EAST
WEST
NORTH
SOUTH
RESEARCH
Premium locations
Bhosale Nagar, Boat Club Road, Erandwane, Koregaon Park, Model Colony, Prabhat
Road, Uday Baug
Central
East
South
Salisbury Park
500
12,500
20,740
400
12,000
300
11,500
200
11,000
100
10,500
20,150
H1 2015
A
CENTRAL
B
EAST
C
WEST
D
NORTH
E
SOUTH
Source: Knight Frank Research
2%
27%
128
27%
20%
H2 2014
H1 2015
H2 2015
Note: Premium markets include locations where the average ticket size of a residential unit
is above `20 mn, are in close proximity to the central business district of the city and have
witnessed new project launches in the preceding three years
H1 2014
units
10,000
H2 2013
15,520
Number of units
H2 2015
H2 2014
13,000
units
units
ABSORPTION
600
` / sq ft
LAUNCHES
24%
129
FIGURE 6
13
PREMIUM MARKETS
12
11
No. of Quarters
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
DEC-13
MAR-14 JUN-14
DEC-14
MAR-15
JUN-15
SEP-15
DEC-15
EAST
WEST
NORTH
SOUTH
11
130
10
RESEARCH
11
QTS
LOCATION
PRICE RANGE IN
H2 2015 (`/SQ FT)
12 MONTH
CHANGE
6 MONTH
CHANGE
Pune
4,835
1.8%
0.3%
Premium markets
12,580
3.1%
1.6%
MICROMARKET
PRICE RANGE IN
H2 2015 (`/SQ FT)
12 MONTH 6 MONTH
CHANGE CHANGE
Koregaon Park
Central
13,000 - 17,000
0%
0%
Kothrud
Central
7,500 - 13,000
0%
0%
Erandwane
Central
13,500 - 18,000
0%
0%
Central
14,500 - 19,500
0%
0%
Kharadi
East
5,300 - 6,300
2%
2%
Wagholi
East
3,500 - 4,600
2%
2%
131
OFFICE MARKET
Dhanori
East
3,900 - 4,800
0%
0%
Hadapsar
East
4,600 - 6,000
3%
3%
Aundh
West
7,800 - 9,500
3%
3%
Baner
West
5,600 - 8,000
0%
0%
Hinjewadi
West
4,800 - 5,900
5%
5%
Wakad
West
5,400 - 6,200
0%
0%
Moshi
North
3,700 - 4,300
0%
0%
STOCK
Chikhali
North
3,500 - 4,100
2%
2%
70
Chakan
North
2,900 - 3,400
3%
3%
60
Ambegaon
South
4,400 - 5,500
0%
0%
Undri
South
3,900 - 4,800
2%
2%
Kondhwa
South
4,600 - 5,700
2%
2%
VACANCY (RHS)
25%
20%
50
mn sq.ft.
15%
40
30
10%
20
5%
10
0
0%
H1 2014
Projections
H1 2015
H1 2016E
Growth
Launches (units)
12,760
13,900
9%
Absorption (units)
15,520
16,450
6%
4,820
4,880
1%
RESEARCH
H2 2014
H1 2015
H2 2015
H1 2016 E
With demand
consistently outstripping
supply, vacancy levels
witnessed a free fall,
from 16.5% in 2014 to
10.8% in 2015
ABSORPTION
3.5
132
mn sq.ft
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0
H1 2014
H2 2014
H1 2015
H2 2015
H1 2016 E
133
SECTOR ANALYSIS
FIGURE 3
FIGURE 4
H2 2015
AVERAGE DEAL SIZE (SQ.FT.)
70%
50%
40%
62%
60,000
47%
40,000
32%
30%
23%
20%
25%
23%
10%
27%
18%
17%
11%
12%
4%
80
30,000
20,000
40
10,000
0
IT/ITeS
BFSI*
MANUFACTURING
OTHER SERVICES
0
H1 2014
H2 2014
H1 2015
H2 2015
H2 2015
3.3
mn sq.ft.
H2 2014
2.4
mn. sq.ft.
120
50,000
sq.ft
60%
Number of deals
H2 2014
RESEARCH
H1 2015
2.2
mn sq.ft.
SELECT TRANSACTIONS
OCCUPIER
BUILDING
LOCATION
Siemens
Balewadi
342,000
HSBC
Raheja Woods
Kalyani Nagar
335,000
MasterCard
Business Bay
Yerwada
100,000
Yerwada
100,000
BNY Melon
Commerzone
Yerwada
90,000
Concentrix
Yerwada
80,000
Saama Technology
Blue Ridge
Hinjewadi
70,000
All states
SP Infocity
Phursungi
55,000
Deutsche Bank
Business Bay
Yerwada
54,000
Johnson Control
Commerzone
Yerwada
50,000
Tata Technologies
Blue Ridge
Hinjewadi
48,500
Magarpatta
Hadapsar
44,000
R Systems
DTC
Erandwane
42,000
TCS
Suzlon Campus
Hadapsar
30,000
134
135
FIGURE 5
RESEARCH
Bund Garden Road, S B Road, Camp, Deccan, University Road, Shankar Sheth Road
H2 2014
H2 2015
50%
47%
44%
45%
SBD East
PBD East
35%
SBD West
30%
PBD West
40%
30%
25%
20%
20%
15%
8%
10%
5%
17%
15%
8%
8%
3%
0
CBD & Off-CBD
SBD East
SBD West
PBD East
PBD West
H2 2015
3.3
mn sq.ft.
H2 2014
2.4
mn. sq.ft.
136
137
RESEARCH
RENTAL TREND
FIGURE 4
INR / sq.ft./month
60
55
50
45
40
35
H1 2012 H2 2012 H1 2013 H2 2013 H1 2014 H2 2014 H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016E
138
BUSINESS DISTRICT
12 MONTH CHANGE
6 MONTH
CHANGE
70 - 110
19%
10%
SBD East
55 - 85
22%
17%
SBD West
60 - 90
19%
12%
PBD East
55 - 85
24%
20%
PBD West
40 - 58
12%
9%
H1 2015
H1 2016E
Growth
1.54
0.86
-44%
2.16
2.33
8%
Vacancy
15%
8%
50
61
22%
139
RESEARCH
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RESEARCH
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Knight Frank India research provides development and strategic advisory to a wide range of
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2016
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