NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking Poll

Embargoed for release Tuesday, June 21, 2016 at 6:00AM

The NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking Poll tracks voter preferences and attitudes on a weekly basis throughout
the 2016 election cycle. Results are released every Tuesday at 6:00AM and are among registered voters.
Results for the week of June 13, 2016 through June 19, 2016 are among a national sample of 18,208 adults aged 18 and over,
including 16,135 registered voters (+/- 1.1%), 4,364 registered Republican voters (+/-2.0%) and 5,492 registered Democratic voters
(+/-1.8%). Complete error estimates can be found in the methodology section below.

TOPLINE RESULTS
Which one of the following issues matters MOST to you right now?

6/136/19
6/66/12
5/306/5
5/235/29
5/16 5/22
5/9 5/15
5/2 5/8
4/25-5/1
4/18-4/24
4/11-4/17
4/44/10
3/28 4/3
3/21 3/27
3/14 3/20
3/7 3/13
2/29 3/6
2/22 2/28
2/15 2/21
2/8 2/14
2/1 2/7
1/25 1/31
1/18 1/24
1/11 1/17
1/4 1/10
12/28-1/3

Foreign
Policy
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
5
4
4
4
4
5
5
4
5
5
4
5
5
6

The
environment
8
9
8
8
8
9
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
9
8
9
8
8
8
9
9
8
8
8
8

Terrorism
23
12
12
13
13
12
12
14
14
16
17
19
18
12
13
13
14
16
16
15
17
19
21
23
23

Immigration
7
7
7
7
6
7
7
7
8
7
8
7
7
7
8
7
7
7
8
7
8
7
8
8
8

Health
care
14
17
17
15
16
16
15
16
15
15
14
15
13
15
16
16
16
15
14
16
13
15
13
13
14

Jobs and the

Economy
29
37
35
36
36
35
36
33
32
32
31
32
32
36
35
35
34
33
34
32
32
33
29
28
27

Education
9
10
11
10
12
11
12
11
11
11
11
10
10
11
10
11
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
8
9

Other
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
6
6
5
6
5
5
5
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
5
5

No
answer
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?
6/136/19
6/66/12
5/306/5
5/235/29
5/16 5/22
5/9 5/15
5/25/8
4/255/1
4/18-4/24
4/11-4/17
4/44/10
3/28 4/3
3/21 3/27
3/14 3/20
3/7 3/13
2/29 3/6
2/22 2/28
2/15 2/21
2/8 2/14
2/1 2/7
1/25 1/31
1/18 1/24
1/11 1/17
1/4 1/10
12/28 1/3

Strongly approve
30
29
27
27
27
28
28
27
26
28
27
28
27
27
27
27
27
26
26
27
25
26
26
23
23

Somewhat approve
21
22
24
23
23
23
23
24
24
24
23
24
24
24
23
23
23
22
24
23
22
24
22
22
25

Somewhat disapprove
12
12
12
12
13
13
12
13
13
12
13
13
13
13
13
12
12
12
12
12
12
14
12
12
12

In politics today, do you consider yourself a Republican, Democrat, or Independent?

6/136/19
6/66/12
5/306/5
5/235/29
5/165/22
5/9 5/15
5/2 - 5/8
4/25-5/1
4/18-4/24
4/11-4/17
4/44/10
3/28 4/3
3/21 3/27
3/14 3/20
3/7 3/13
2/29 3/6
2/22 2/28
2/15 2/21
2/8 2/14
2/1 2/7
1/25 1/31
1/18 1/24
1/11 1/17
1/4 1/10
12/28 1/3

Republican
28
28
29
28
29
28
32
28
28
29
30
29
30
30
31
32
31
31
30
30
31
28
31
33
30

Democrat
34
35
35
33
34
35
35
36
35
34
34
35
33
36
35
36
35
35
35
35
34
34
34
32
34

Independent
36
36
36
37
35
35
31
35
36
35
35
35
36
32
33
31
33
33
33
33
33
36
33
34
34

No answer
2
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
2
2
2
1
2
2
2

Strongly disapprove
37
36
37
37
36
35
36
36
37
37
37
35
35
35
36
37
37
39
38
38
40
36
40
42
40

No answer
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

As of today, do you lean more to the Republican Party or more to the Democratic Party? [AMONG IND OR DONT KNOW FOR
PARTY]
6/136/19
6/66/12
5/306/5
5/235/29
5/16 5/22
5/9 5/15
5/2 5/8
4/25-5/1
4/18-4/24
4/11-4/17
4/4 4/10
3/28 4/3
3/21 3/27
3/14 3/20
3/7 3/13
2/29 3/6
2/22 2/28
2/15 2/21
2/8 2/14
2/1 2/7
1/25 1/31
1/18 1/24
1/11 1/17
1/4 1/10
12/28 1/3

Republican
Party
32
33
33
32
31
33
32
32
35
33
33
31
31
31
31
32
34
38
34
35
34
33
36
36
37

Democratic
Party
28
28
26
28
29
28
32
27
27
30
28
29
28
28
27
29
28
28
28
30
26
27
26
26
24

Neither
36
36
37
37
37
36
35
38
35
34
35
38
37
39
41
36
36
33
35
33
37
39
37
36
37

No answer
4
3
3
3
3
3
1
3
3
3
4
2
4
2
2
2
2
2
3
2
3
2
2
1
1

If the 2016 presidential election were being held today among the following candidates, for whom would you vote?

6/136/19
6/66/12
5/306/5
5/235/29
5/16 5/22
5/9 5/15
5/2 5/8

Hillary Clinton,
the Democrat
48
49
48
47
47
48
49

Donald Trump,
the Republican
42
42
44
45
43
45
44

No
answer
10
9
9
8
9
7
7

If the 2016 presidential election were being held today among the following candidates for whom would you vote?

6/136/19
6/66/12
6/26/5

Donald
Trump, the
Republican
38
38
40

Hillary
Clinton, the
Democrat
42
42
39

Gary
Johnson,
the
Libertarian
9
9
9

Jill Stein,
the
Green
Party
5
5
4

No
answer
7
6
8

Suppose President Obama were allowed to run for a third term. If these were the candidates in the presidential election this
November, for whom would you vote?

6/136/19

Donald Trump
43

Barrack Obama
53

No answer
5

Who do you think will win the 2016 presidential election?

6/136/19
6/66/12
5/306/5
5/235/29
5/16-5/22
5/9 5/15

Hillary Clinton
56
54
49
47
51
51

Donald Trump
38
40
44
46
42
43

No answer
7
6
7
7
7
6

Whose endorsement of Donald Trump would matter the most to you?

6/136/19

George W. Bush
26

Paul Ryan
22

John McCain
17

Mitt Romney
13

Whose endorsement of Hillary Clinton would matter the most to you?

6/136/19

Bernie Sanders
39

Barack Obama
25

Elizabeth
Warren
12

No
answer
24

Do you think the Republican Party

6/136/19
5/235/29

Is united
now
7
9

Is divided now
but will unite
by November
27
34

Will still be
divided in
November
61
55

No
answer
5
3

Will still be
divided in
November
33
38

No
answer
6
3

Do you think the Democratic Party

6/136/19
5/235/29

Is united
now
21
16

Is divided now
but will unite
by November
40
43

No answer
23

Did you vote in the presidential primary or caucuses held in your state this year?

6/136/19

Yes: voted in
Democratic
primary/caucus
35

Yes: voted in
Republican
primary/caucus
30

No: didnt vote in

the presidential
primary or caucus
32

No
answer
3

Which candidate did you vote for in your states Democratic primary or caucus? [AMONG THOSE WHO VOTED IN DEM PRIMARY]

6/136/19

Hillary Clinton
53

Bernie Sanders
42

Martin
OMalley
1

Another candidate
(please specify)
1

No answer
2

Which candidate did you vote for in your states Republican primary or caucus? [AMONG THOSE WHO VOTED IN REP PRIMARY]

6/136/19

Donald Trump
47

Ted Cruz
22

John Kasich
14

Marco Rubio
11

Another candidate
(please specify)
4

No answer
2

METHODOLOGY
The NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking data for the week of June 13, 2016 through June 19, 2016 was conducted online among a
national sample of 18,208 adults aged 18 and over, including 16,135 who say they are registered to vote. Respondents for this survey were selected
from the nearly three million people who take surveys on the SurveyMonkey platform each day. Data for this week has been weighted for age,
race, sex, education, region, and voter registration status using the Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Population Survey to
reflect the demographic composition of the United States.
Because the sample is based on those who initially self-selected for participation rather than a probability sample, no estimates of sampling error
can be calculated. All surveys may be subject to multiple sources of error, including, but not limited to sampling error, coverage error, and
measurement error.
To assess the variability in the estimates and account for design effects, we create a bootstrap confidence interval to produce an error estimate.
The bootstrap confidence interval for this survey is plus or minus 1.0 percentage point for the full sample and plus or minus 1.1 percentage point
for registered voters.
To calculate the bootstrap confidence interval we use the weighted data to generate 5000 independent samples and calculate the 95% confidence
intervals for the weighted average. When analyzing the survey results and their accuracy, this error estimate should be taken into consideration in
much the same way that analysis of probability polls takes into account the margin of sampling error.
Group
Total sample
Total RVs

Unweighted N
18,208
16,135

Plus or minus
1.0
1.1

Republican RVs
Democrat RVs

4,364
5,492

2.0
1.8

Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Liberal
Very liberal

1,551
4,314
7,183
3,143
1,494

3.6
2.0
1.5
2.3
3.4

Male
Female

9,196
9,012

1.3
1.4

18-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65+

1,132
2,181
2,763
3,975
4,522
3,635

3.8
2.7
2.5
2.1
1.9
2.2

White
Black
Hispanic
Other

13,494
1,539
1,616
1,559

1.1
3.3
3.3
3.4

Income: <$50k
Income: $50k-$99k
Income: $100k or more

4,539
5,745
6,681

1.9
1.7
1.5

Education: HS or less
Education: Some college
Education: College or more

2,183
5,189
10,836

2.3
1.4
1.0