Norway Hill ASSOGLATES MEMORANUM To Sean Mahoney FR David Carey & James McKay RE What Tuesday's results mean for you in NHO1 DATE May 19, 2010 Tuesday's primary results represent an early and teling earthquake in what, in the fullness of time, will be considered a full-blown tectonic shift in American politics. As Jim VandeHei writes in Wednesday's Politico: “Washington politicians should be scared as hell this morning because the message of the past year is clear: Cut the crap or lose your jab .. This election marked the official end of establishment dominance. Lawmakers dar't need the backing of presidents, campaign committees and political parties.” Tuesday's results show power in American politics continues to slip from the fingers of Party establishment bigwigs and into the hands of the people where i rightfully belongs. This is consistent with our view of the electorate in NH.O1 based on our own internal survey research, Consider this: Every major candidate who was backed by their official Party's apparatus — Grayson in Kentucky, Specter in Pennsylvania and Lincoln in Arkansas — either lost or failed to win outright on Tuesday. This is great news for your campaign, Below is an analysis of what this politcal shift means in the NH-O1 primary campaign and General Election General Election Let's first look atthe General Election. The only two public polls to emerge since you entered the race for Congress show you defeating incumbent Democratic Rep. Carol Shea-Parter. This should be no surprise. Shea-Porter appears to have jettisoned any pretense of independence. Throughout her entire second term in Congress, Shea-Porter has done Speaker Nancy Pelosi's bidding. And she has been rewarded handsomely for Pelosi over the people of the Granite State with a lucrative fundraiser at a swank hotel in Boston with Madam Speaker herself on March 5th. ‘Shee-Porter’s votes for the stimulus bill and ObamaCare are huge liabilities for her. The stimulus has failed to create the jobs she promised (a fact Shea-Porter was forced to admit on WMUR) and 40 Norway Hill Road Hancock, NH1034495600 (603) 5252820 ofice (60with each passing day we find out just how disastrous ObamaCare is as new information about this terrible law comes into view. Both votes, however, demonstrate where Shea-Porters priorities lay With her parfy’s establishment Ata recent town hall meeting, Carol Shea-Porter confessed to a groaning crowd that she votes {20% of the time with President Obama and 93% of the time with Nancy Pelosi and House Democratic leadership. We are in possession of video of her saying this and it will certainly make for a powerful message in the Fall campaign. Whatever public image Carol Shea-Porter managed to portray in previous elections is now inoperative. Carol Shea-Porter today is a creature of Washington. Primary Campaign Of course, you need to win the Republican primary fist, Sean. And it won't be easy. The DC poltical establishment has made its choice and i ist you The Republican Pary’s establishment wing made their pick for the Congressional seat long ago The National Republican Congressional Committee recruited and backed Frank Guinta out of the gate. This earl establishment support prompted the New Hampshire Union Leader ta editarialze (on August 3, 2008 against "Washington elites” who “presume to pick our candidates for us.” Since then — due to the backlash reflected in that Union Leader editorial and Guinta’s own lackluster campaign — the NRCC and the Beltway establishment has endeavored to distance itset! ‘rom Guinta. CQ-Roll Call recently reported that national Republicans have decided to “lt the primary play out for Guinta in New Hampshire” because “the risk of taking sides in an activst- driven state ike New Hampshire is too risky for the national or local Republican Party” What's more, all early, default support Guinta managed to garner during the year in which he had the race to himself wil dissipate once activists learn about his literal record, which he has successfully managed to camouflage to date. Already conservative grassroots leaders are openly discussing his House scorecard. His voting record as scared by the House Republican Alliance is going to make most Republican voters very skeptical of his rhetoric. The recent election season has shown that pretenders will be on the short end of the vaters stick. Contrast this with your own profile, Sean In Aprilyau took a principled stand against leaders of your own Party and resigned from the Republican National Committee amid a spending scandal than had come to tarnish that organization's reputation. A leading newspaper said you “opted to buck a system that is crushing the nation’ and praised your principled decision Further, you are the only Republican candidate who publicly opposed the Wall Street bailout when it was important to do so: When it was being rammed through Congress by a Republican President and long before you decided to run for Congress yourself 40 Nonway Hill Road Hancock, 1034495600 (603) 5252820 oftice (603| believe Republican primary voters will reward your principled decisions even i these decisions served to make the Party establishment angry at you Conclusion | dor't want to give you an exclusively rosy scenario, however, Sean. The poltical establishment is unlikely to give up power and control easily. We should expect frequent attacks against you from establishment figures in both parties. For example, a liberal, out-of-cistrict newspaper has already attacked you this week for calling forthe repeal of ObamaCare. That said, the American people are tuned in and energized in a way have never seen before. And this is tertfic news for your campaign. We must keep focused on Carol Shea-Porter and her record. Your skill and experience as a leader small businessperson and our broad based campaign will prevail over the empty poltical pracess shots that will came our way. 40 Nonway Hill Road Hancock, 1034495600 (603) 5252820 oftice (603