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Investment Summary
Investment Highlights
Recommenda(on:
HOLD
Target
Price:
$9.79
12-month
target
Market
Price:
$9.14
As
of
1/21/14
10
7.11%
upside
8
7
Closing
Price
Current
Price
Target
Price
6
5
4
1/1/09
Summary
1/1/10
7/1/10
Compe((ve
Posi(oning
1/1/11
7/1/11
Financials
1/1/12
7/1/12
Valua(on
1/1/13
7/1/13
Risk Analysis
1/1/14
Conclusion
Company
Overview
1982:
Callaway
founded
in
Carlsbad,
CA
Global Sales
Rest
of
Asia
9%
Product PorLolio
Other
9%
Drivers
and
fairway
woods
24%
Accessories
and
other
28%
US
49%
Japan
18%
Irons
20%
Golf
balls
17%
Europe
15%
Summary
PuGers
11%
Compe((ve
Posi(oning
Financials
Valua(on
Risk Analysis
Conclusion
COMPETITIVE POSITIONING
Industry Overview
Key characteris@cs:
High
entry
barriers
Luxury
goods
market
Specialized
manufacturing
processes
Highly
saturated
market
4
3
Compe((ve
Rivalry
within
the
Industry
Compe((ve
Posi(oning
1
0
Spor@ng
Good
Industry
CAGR:
4.0%
Golf
Segment
CAGR:
2.4%
Summary
Threat
of
Subs(tute
Products
Bargaining
Power
of
Suppliers
Financials
Bargaining
Power
of
Customers
Valua(on
Risk Analysis
Conclusion
Compe@@ve
Rivalry
Callaways
U.S.
Market
Share
(Hard
goods)
25.0%
20.0%
19.6%
18.7%
19.1%
18.7%
15.0%
13.9%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
2004
Summary
Compe((ve
Posi(oning
2005
Financials
2006
2007
2008
Valua(on
2009
2010
Risk Analysis
2011
2012
Conclusion
Compe@@ve Advantage
0.3
0.25
Compe((ve
Posi(oning
Prot Margin
0.2
0.15
0.1
Industry Average
0.05
0
0
0.5
1.5
2.5
-0.05
-0.1
Summary
Asset Turnover
Compe((ve
Posi(oning
Financials
Valua(on
Risk Analysis
Conclusion
FINANCIALS
Core
Competencies
YOY
Sales
Growth
Core Products
20.00%
Accessories
15.00%
10.00%
5.00%
0.00%
-5.00%
-10.00%
-15.00%
-20.00%
-25.00%
2008
Summary
2009
Compe((ve
Posi(oning
2010
Financials
2011
2012
Valua(on
2013
Risk Analysis
Conclusion
Cost Ini@a@ves
700
600
500
400
COGS
300
OPEX
200
100
0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013E
2014E
$60 million annual savings = $19 million COGS + $41 million OPEX
Summary
Compe((ve
Posi(oning
Financials
Valua(on
Risk Analysis
Conclusion
Prot Margin
Revenues
Net Income
Prot Margin
1200
10%
1000
5%
800
0%
600
Lower
inventory
Higher
asset-turnover
-5%
400
-10%
200
-15%
0
2010
2011
2012
2013E
2014E
-200
-20%
-400
-25%
Summary
Compe((ve
Posi(oning
Financials
Valua(on
Results
in
increased:
Revenue
Prot
margin
Net
income
Risk Analysis
Conclusion
VALUATION
Mul@ples Pricing
2014 Es@mate
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
SWHC
NLS
Mul@plier
DKS
BC
LF
EV/Sales
Forecasted Year
2013E
2014E
Mul(ple (Median)
1.14x
1.1x
Enterprise Value
$957.2
$1014.1
Equity Value
$887.5
$944.4
Compe((ve
Posi(oning
Financials
Valua(on
Risk Analysis
Conclusion
Mul@ples
Pricing
Protability
10
Year
Median
Performance
10
Year
Average
60.00%
40.00%
20.00%
0.00%
NLS
LF
Gross Margin
BC
Opera(ng Margin
Liquidity
10
Year
Average
ELY
DKS
LF
Asset Turnover
BC
SWHC
NLS
Inventory
Turnover
4
3
2
1
0
DKS
Summary
Compe((ve
Posi(oning
Financials
Valua(on
Risk Analysis
Conclusion
DCF Assump@ons
Key Drivers
ELY
Mean
Peer
Unlevered
Beta
1.17
Debt / Equity
31.30%
38.50%
Re-levered Beta
1.40
Summary
Cost
of
Debt
Cost
of
Debt
Tax
Rate
Aher-tax
Cost
of
Debt
Cost
of
Equity
Risk-free
Rate
Market
Risk
Premium
Levered
Beta
Cost
of
Equity
WACC
10.97%
Compe((ve
Posi(oning
Financials
Valua(on
Risk Analysis
3.75%
38.50%
2.31%
2.83%
7.75%
1.40
13.68%
Conclusion
Target Price
$9.57
USD
$10.31
USD
30%
Mul@ples
Valua@on
Summary
Compe((ve
Posi(oning
Financials
$9.79
USD
2014
Year
End
Target
Price
Upside:
7.11%
Holding
Period
Return:
7.22%
Valua(on
Risk Analysis
Conclusion
RISK ANALYSIS
Losing
Exis(ng
Suppliers
Limited
Growth
Opportunity
Conict
Minerals
Market
Demand
Exchange
Rate
Risk
Input
Price
Fluctua(on
Seasonality
Medium
High
Minor
IMPACT
Moderate Signicant
Risk Analysis
Low
PROBABILITY
Summary
Compe((ve
Posi(oning
Financials
Valua(on
Risk Analysis
Conclusion
Losing
Exis(ng
Suppliers
Limited
Growth
Opportunity
Conict
Minerals
Market
Demand
Exchange
Rate
Risk
Input
Price
Fluctua(on
Seasonality
Medium
High
Minor
IMPACT
Moderate Signicant
Risk Analysis
Low
PROBABILITY
Summary
Compe((ve
Posi(oning
Financials
Valua(on
Risk Analysis
Conclusion
Losing
Exis(ng
Suppliers
Limited
Growth
Opportunity
Conict
Minerals
Market
Demand
Exchange
Rate
Risk
Input
Price
Fluctua(on
Seasonality
Medium
High
Minor
IMPACT
Moderate Signicant
Risk Analysis
Low
PROBABILITY
Summary
Compe((ve
Posi(oning
Financials
Valua(on
Risk Analysis
Conclusion
Losing
Exis(ng
Suppliers
Limited
Growth
Opportunity
Conict
Minerals
Market
Demand
Exchange
Rate
Risk
Input
Price
Fluctua(on
Seasonality
Medium
High
Minor
IMPACT
Moderate Signicant
Risk Analysis
Low
PROBABILITY
Summary
Compe((ve
Posi(oning
Financials
Valua(on
Risk Analysis
Conclusion
Hold Recommenda(on
CONCLUSION
Conclusion
(+)
Core
competency
focus
(+)
New
managements
cost
ini(a(ves
Summary
Compe((ve
Posi(oning
Hold
Financials
&
Valua(on
Risk Analysis
Conclusion
Ques@ons?
Q & A
Summary
Compe((ve
Posi(oning
Financials
&
Valua(on
Risk Analysis
Conclusion
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