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VERSILIAFLOOD:APREFRONTALSUPERCELLSYSTEMEMBEDDEDINWEAK
FLOWIMPINGINGONNEARCOASTALMOUNTAINRANGE

(1)P.Frontero,(2)P.Binder,(1)S.Pugnaghi,(1)L.Lombroso,(1)R.Santangelo,
(3)A.Buzzi,(4)T.Paccagnella,(4)A.Selvini
(1)Dip.Sci.Ing.Sez.OsservatorioGeofisicoUniv.Modena,I
(2)SwissMeteorologicalInstitute,Zurich,CH
(3)FISBATCNRBologna,I
(4)Serv.Met.Reg.Bologna,I
Abstract
AdeepandstationaryconvectiveeventoccuredoverVersilia(apartoftheTuscanyregion,Italy)on19June1996producing
heavyprecipitationduringtwelvehours(maximumaccumulatedvalue478mm).Itinitiallyformedatthecoastlineanditsgrowth
wassupportedbyliftingoftheweakflowtowardstheApuaneAlps.Casesofthistypehighlighttheneedforaccurateand
spatiallyhighlyresolvedobservationsforanalysisandprediction.Wecollectednonstandarddataandperformedspecial
numericalsimulationswithdifferentLAMstoimproveinvestigationofacasewhichproducedmanyinjuriestothelocalpeople.

Introduction
TheVersiliaevent(Italy)on19June1996wasasevereconvectivecaseleadingtoheavyprecipitation.Themajorsynoptic
featurewasacoldfrontapproachingfromthenorth,butwhichwasstillonthenorthernsideoftheAlpsduringthecriticaltime
period.ThefarinfluenceofthiscoldfrontincombinationwiththeprevailingWSWwarmadvectionovertheMediterraneanin
thelowerpartofthetropospherecreatedtheprerequisiteconditionsforthesupercellthunderstormtodevelop.Thesynoptic
forcinginthiscasewasveryweak,moreimportantwasthemesoscaleflowandtheconvectionenhancedbylocalorography.
OnlyfewobservationsfromtheGTSnetworkareavailableintheareaofthemesoscalephenomenon.
TheVersiliaeventrepresentsaconvergencedivergencefieldcasethatneedsabettercomprehensionbymeansofmodelsandthis
isoneofthemainscientificobjectiveofMAP.Theheavyprecipitationsystemexhibitedcharacteristicssimilartootherevents
[Fronteroetal.,1995],[Fronteroetal.,1996]seeninthesamearea.Thesecaseshighlighttheneedformorehighresolution
observationsinthisarea,alsotohavebetterinitialconditionsforLAMs.

Synopticsituation
Thesynopticsituationat500hPaon19ofJuneshowsaridgewithaxisfromAlgeriauptoBrittany.Ageopotentialminimumis
foundoversouthernSweden.ThissettingproducedanorthwesternflowregimeoverItalywithawindspeedofabout10m/s.The
curvatureofthegeopotentialfieldwasmainlyanticyclonic.TemperatureoverNorthernItalyatthisaltitudewasabout15Cdue
tocoldadvection.At850hPawarmadvectionfromWSWoverthesealedtoinstability[BerlinerWetterkarte,1996].Thesurface
pressurefieldwaswelllevelledaround1015hPawithalightcycloniccurvature.Thelowerpartofacoldfrontovercentral
EuropereachedthenorthernItalianregions.Asawhole,thesynopticsituation,doesnotexhibitspectacularfeatures.

Precipitation
FromthemeasurementsofthemeteorologicalstationsintheVersiliaareaitcanbeseenthatprecipitationbeganat3:00UTCon
June19andlasteduntil18:00UTCproducingamaximumofaccumulatedprecipitationof478mmatthePomezzanaraingauge
station.AroundPomezzanaSt,inanareaofabout10x20km2(seetherectangularareainFig.1a)theaccumulatedprecipitation
exceeded100mm.OutsidethisareatheaccumulatedprecipitationdecreasedrapidlyandatthenearbysynopticstationsofPisa,
FirenzeandPerugiaprecipitationamountsof:0.0,0.6and0.0mmwereobservedrespectively.Theeventhadtwointensity
maxima,thefirstbetween5and6UTCandthesecondaround13:00UTCofminorintensity.
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Itisinterestingtoknowthatinthisregiontheannualprecipitationhasalocalmaximumofabout4000mm,duetoitsparticularly
sensitivepositionlinkedtothelocalorography.ThisisthevaluemeasuredatMt.Pania(1800m),insidetherectangularareaof
Fig.1a.Thegradientofprecipitationtowardsthecoastisverysharp.Onthecoast,only14kmawayfromMt.Pania,theannual
accumulatedprecipitationis600700mm.

Casestudy
Thecellwastriggeredoverthesea,closetothecoastofLaSpezia,atabout1:00UTC.ItwasobservedbytheNOAAand
METEOSATsatellites.ThesatelliteimagesshowaninitialeastwarddisplacementtowardtheApuaneAlpsthecellhadacircular
shapeinthisphase.ThenitwasorientedSEalongtheApennines'ridgeandaclockwiserotationbecameapparent.Thehodograph
hadthesamerotationwhilethesupercellgrewinstigatingnewcellsatitsrightflank[Bluestein,1993]thiscanbeseenonboth
satelliteimagesandbytheprecipitationdistribution.Inspiteoftheelipsoidalofthecloudsysteminthesecondphase,the
precipitationcontinuedabovethesamearea.NOAAAVHRRimagestakenatabout13:30UTCinchannel1(visible)andchannel
4(thermalinfrared)showthatagreatpartofthecloudsystemwasasortofplume[Levizzanietal.,1996],sincethehighlevel
cloudwereblownoffintheupperwinddirection.Underthisplumetherewasnoprecipitation.BymeansoftheTeraScansoftware
package,usingTIRchannels,wedeterminedtheSST.AdifferenceofabouttwodegreesresultedbetweentheLiguriansea(21.5
C)andtheThyrrheniansea(23.5C).WiththesamepackageTOVSdatawereanalyzedtoobtaingeopotential,wind,temperature
anddewpointtemperaturefieldsatstandardpressurelevels.Theminimumofgeopotentialat850hPasoutheastoftheApuane
Alps(Fig.1b)correspondstoawelldefineddownstreamleedepression[Carlson,1991]andthedewpointtemperatureshowsa
dryairnucleousinthesamearea.ThebackgroundofbothFig.1aand1bisthebrightnesstemperatureobtainedbyAVHRR
channel4brightanddarkcoloursindicatewarmandcoldsurfacerespectively.
Wecollectedalltheradiosoundingsperformedaroundtheregionofinterest:Ajaccio,Cagliari,Nimes,SanPietroCapofiume
(Bologna)andMilano,allofthemshownosignificantinstabilitywhiletheconsideredLAMs:BOLAM(FISBATCNR,Italy),
LAMBO(SMR,Italy)andSM(SMI,Switzerland)showdifferentinstabilitycharacteristicsforthisarea.TheSMprofilesoverthe
Ligurianseashowinthefirsttwoorthreemodellayersaverystable(i.e.temperatureinversion)saturatedboundarylayer.This
inversionismaintainedbythewarmWSWadvection,previouslyquoted,ofpotentiallyveryunstablebutdryairandbythe
relativelycoldseasurface.Thisgivesthecharacteristicshapeoftheprofileoverthesea(seeFig.2a).Theprofilesovertheland
havethesamemainstructure(seeFig.2b),butherenocappinginversionexistsandsomeliftingatthecoastandthemountain
behindisexertedontheflow.
Quiteanimpressivepictureisgivenbythe10mwind(seeFig.3a).Thelowlevelflowexhibitssignificantconvergencetowards
theVersiliacoast.Thisfeatureisconnectedtoadistinctvorticitypattern.Flowsplittinginthestablemarineboundarylayeris
seenaroundCorsica.ThenorthernbranchofthesplitflowconvergeswiththeflowcomingdowntheRhonevallyandturningto
theeast.However,thisrelevantflowcharacteristiccannotbeobservedbytheSYNOPstationsonthecoast.BOLAMidentified
thesamelowlevelflowpatternastheSM.
At850hPawesterlyflowcanbeseeninFig.3b.Themodelwindspeedatthisaltitudeisinfairagreementwiththemountain
stationobservations.
Anotherrelevantaspectisderivedbytheanalysisofthecrosssectionsofthehorizontalwindspeed(seeFig.4a)andofomega,
connectedtotheverticalmotion[Kurz,1990](seeFig.4b).IntheWEcrosssectionofFig.4aacoreofwindspeedof20m/sat
about950hPaisclearlyvisibleovertheLiguriansea.Itisakindoflowlevelboundarylayerjet.Fig.4bshowsareductionof
stabilitybetween900and800hPaclosetotheVersiliacoastandtotherightofthelowleveljetthisreductionisofcourse
associatedwithanascendingverticalmotion.BehindApennines,positivevaluesofomegaindicatedescendingairmotion
(foehneffect).ThisinpartexplainsthegeopotentialpatternofFig.1b.
FinallyasyntheticdescriptionoftheeventisgivenbythewindvectorandmoistureconvergenceanalysisshowninFig.5(map
obtainedatabout250ma.g.l.).Asignificantmoistureconvergencereachesitsmaximumvalueintheareawheretherewasthe
maximumofprecipitation.IntheTiedkeparameterizationschemeforconvection,asusedintheSM,thisquantityiscrucialfor
theonsetandmaintenanceofconvectionthe24hmaximumprecipitationamountforecastedbytheSMfortheperiodinquestion
was155mm(mostprecipitationforecastedofthethreeconsideredLAMs).

Conclusion
Thesupercellwastriggeredoverthesea,nearthecoastandgrewabovetheVersiliaarea,producingamaximumof478mmduring
twelvehours.
Thekeyfactorsleadingtotheeventwere:
1)theverticalstructureoftheatmospherewithitsblockedboundarylayerovertheseaandsignificantinstabilitypotentialaloft
(largeCAPEvalues)
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2)thelowleveljetformedbytheconvergenceoftheflowdeflectedaroundCorsicaandtheAlpsleadingtomoistureconvergence
andliftingonshore.Thegeometryoftheflowismainlydrivenbythelocaltopography.Synopticforcinginthiscasewasvery
weakandthereforethelocalandmesoscaleconditionswereresponsiblefortheoutbreakofthesevereconvection.
Finallyweremarkalackofverticalobservationsinthissensitivearea(GulfofGenoa)thiswasafactorreducingthereliabilityof
theLAMforecasts.

Aknowledgement
Observedprecipitationdata,fromthestationnetworkoftheitalianServizioIdrograficoeMareograficoNazionale,havebeen
madeavailableforresearchpurposesbytheItalianDepartmentforCivilprotection.
WethankMatthiasJaeneke(DeutscherWetterdienst)fortheinformationandF.Parmiggiani(IMGACNR,Italy)fortheNOAA
images.

Reference
BerlinerWetterkarte,InstitutefurMeteorologiederFreieUniversitatBerlin,Germany,1996
BluesteinH.B.,1993
Synopticdynamicmeteorologyinmidlatitudes,VolumeIII
OxfordUniversityPress,1993.
CarlsonT.N.,1991
MidLatitudeWeatherSystems
HarperCollinsAcademic1991
FronteroP.,L.Lombroso,S.Pugnaghi,R.Santangelo,1995
November1994Piedmontfloodnowcastingcontribution
MAPNewslettern3,1995
FronteroP.,L.Lombroso,S.Pugnaghi,R.Santangelo,A.Buzzi,T.Paccagnella,P.Binder,1996
HeavyprecipitationovertheLigurianarea:Thecaseof46October1995
MAPNewslettetern5,1996
KurzM.M.,1990
Methodsofsynopticdiagnosis,DWDZentralamt,1990
LevizzaniV.,M.Setvak,R.A.Rabin,C.A.DoswellIII,P.K.Wang,1996
StormtopstructureasseenfromNOAAAVHRRimagery:Aneedforinterpretation
MAPnewslettern5,1996

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Figures

Fig.1a:Thedarkshadeovertheseaisthecloudsystemduringitsearlystageatabout2UTCon19June
1996.Therectangleshowstheareawithaccumulatedprecipitationgreaterthen100mm.Thespotinsidethe
rectangleindicatesthestationwheretherewasthemaximumprecipitationof478mm.

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Fig.1b:TOVSgeopotentialcontourlinesat850hPa.TheminimumtothesoutheastoftheApuaneAlps
correspondstoadownstreamleedepression.

Fig.2a:CharacteristicthermodynamicprofileasseenbytheSwissModel(SM)overtheseawestsouthwest
ofVersilia:19June199600UTC(right)and06UTC(left).

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Fig.2b:SameasFig.2abutforaVersilialandpoint.

Fig.3a:SMpredicted(+6h)windfieldat10mfor19June199606UTC.Notetheconvergenceoffshore
Versilia.

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Fig.3b:SameasFig.3abutforthe850hPawindfield.FlowsplittingaroundCorsicaisalmostabsent.

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Fig.4a:Verticalcrosssectionatabout44N.Equivalentpotentialtemperature(solidlines,every2degrees)
andwindspeed(shadingandbolddashedisolinesfor10,13and16m/s)aspredictedbytheSM(19June
199600UTC+6h).Themountainrangetotheleft(west)aretheMaritimeAlps,theridgetotheright(east)
aretheApuaneAlps(Apennines).

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Fig.4b:Verticalcrosssectionatabout44NcuttingtheApuaneAlps.Equivalentpotentialtemperatureand
verticalvelocity(omega).Upwardmotionisindicatedbydashedlines.

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Fig.5:Windfieldandmoistureconvergenceatabout250ma.g.l.(SM19June199600UTC+6h).
MaximumvalueintheVersiliaregionis1.2105s1.

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