RELIABILITY CONCEPTS

FE.BRUARY 1985

BRUARY 1985

Reliability Criteria Subcommittee

of ineering Committee

ELIABILITY CRITERIA SUBCOMMITTEE

Charles E. Winn, (Chairman) Tennessee Valley Authority

Robert Beckwith (MAIN) Commonwealth Edison Company

William J. Cloues (MAAC) Philadelphia Electric Company

Jack C. Coulter (WSCC) Pacific Gas & Electric Company

Jack Davey (SPP)

Middle South Services, Inc.

Joseph J. Jurlina (ERCOT) Texas Power & Light Company

William D. Masters (ECAR)

Cleveland Electric Illuminating Company

Charles L. Rudasill, Jr. (SERC) Virginia Electric and Power Company

John M. Schamberger (NPCC) Northeast Utilities Service Company

Robert E. Vandello (MAPP) Iowa-Illinois Gas and Electric Company

W. Colborn (NERC)

North American Electric Reliability Council

Grateful acknowledgement is made of the contributions made by James R. Forest (MAPP), whose term on the Subcommittee ended in July, 1983.

The Reliability Council Subcommittee is a segment of the Engineering Committee, which is a part of the North American Electric Reliability Council.

2

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Summary 5
Introduction 7
Economic Considerations 11
Investigative Methods 13
Generation Reliability 15
Transmission Reliability 21
Appendix 24
Reliability Engineering Basics 3

4

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SUMMARY

Electricity plays a vital role in our lives. Many aspects of our society are built around the supply of electrical energy. Our industrial complex, our system of commerce, and our individual lifestyles are strongly influenced by the use of electricity. People have come to depend on electricity being available when they need it. Electric utilities recognize that dependence and have responded by constructing and operating a delivery system of excellent reliability. As systems grow, and as society becomes more sophisticated, concepts of reliability become more complex. Conflicts arise between the need for reliable service and other societal goals such as preservation of the environment. Through the regulatory process and reaction to rate changes, society takes positions on these issues and becomes influential in determining the

reliability of the future electricity supply.

To bring about a better understanding of bulk power electric system reliability, the North American Electric Reliability Council, in this report, summarizes the considerations and methods used by utilities of the North American continent in providing reliable bulk power systems.* Bulk power electric system reliability is a result of the performance of the system elements. The term 'reliability' relates to the degree to which that performance affects the continuity of power supply to consumers. The degree may be measured by the frequency, duration, and magnitude (how often, how long, how large) of adverse effects on consumer service. A formal definition of bulk power system reliability is included as a part of this report.

Figure 1

BULK POWER ELECTRIC SYSTEM

*"Bulk power electric system" is a term describing the aggregate of electric generating plants, transmission lines, and appurtenant equipment. The term may refer to those facilities within one electric utility, or within a group of utilities in which the transmission lines are interconnected.

5

Designing for Reliability

Generators and transmission lines are the building blocks added to a bulk power electric system to achieve a specified degree of reliability. The goal is to provide that degree of reliability with minimum total cost. 'Total cost' is the sum of the cost of the utility operations and the cost to the consumer of service interruptions. The latter cost is partially subjective and cannot yet be accurately measured. A utility supplies many different kinds of customers. It must select the level of reliability that best fits the anticipated future wishes of all the consumers in an area. The reliability designed into the system depends on the amount that consumers are perceived as being willing to pay for the lines and generators required to produce that reliability.

Reliability objectives and study techniques are developed as a way of comparing alternate future system developments. Such objectives and methods may be described as either "deterministic" or "probabilistic. "

• "Deterministic" reliability criteria are desired responses to system disturbances. For example, a system must withstand an outage of any single system element without significant interruption of service. Different system developments will withstand disturbances more or less successfully. A statement that installed generation must be a specified percentage greater than the expected maximum demand is another example of a deterministic criterion.

• "Probabilistic" methods use reliability characteristics of system components to predict the likelihood that all of the demand will be served. Different system developments will have a higher or lower probability that all of the demand will be served.

Experience dictates that a mixture of deterministic and probabilistic approaches be actually used. See Chapter 3 and the Appendix for a more complete discussion of this subject.

Generation and Reliability

Achieving reliability in the generating portion of bulk power electric systems requires that the amount of future generating capacity exceeds the forecast peak demand by some amount. That amount must be sufficient to cover scheduled and forced outages, reductions in the capability of the generation equipment, deviations from load (demand) forecast, the variable availability of wind, solar and hydro generation, and so on. The amount by which generating capacity exceeds the forecast peak demand is known as 'capacity margin. '

The amount of installed generating capacity required in a particular system is affected by the design and performance

characteristics of existing generators, the characteristics of the load to be served, and the availability of generating capacity from other utility systems. Research shows that the cost to the consumer does not change significantly for moderate increases from the minimum amount of planned capacity margin which will provide acceptable reliability. The impact on the consumer of unserved load due to having installed too little capacity may be very severe, however. Thus, installing generating capacity above that minimum needed for reliability may be good for the consumer in many systems.

Transmission and Reliability

The transmission portion of a bulk power electric system performs a major role in reliability. Its functions are complementary to, but not interchangeable with, those of generators. The capability of the transmission network must be sufficient to allow for the movement of electricity from the generating plants and to accommodate energy transactions with adjacent utilities. Further, the transmission system must contain sufficient redundancy to perform these functions reliably.

Having the choice of constructing either generation or transmission to meet a reliability goal provides an important degree of flexibility; but the reliability gained from expanding either is reduced if that expansion is not coordinated with the other.

Coordination and Reliability

Construction and operation of bulk power facilities in one utility can affect the reliability of neighboring systems. To achieve benefits of wide area integration, the multisystem planning and operation of both generation and transmission facilities must be well coordinated. The North American Electric Reliability Council and its constituent Regional Reliability Councils, and other groupings of electric power systems all contribute to the coordination process. The total effect of proper planning and operation of all of the integrated facilities establishes the reliability of the overall bulk power electric system.

6

INTRODUCTION

Reliability - A Definition

To provide a basis for the discussion which follows, a definition of bulk power system reliability is required. A general definition of reliability is: the ability of a device or system to perform a required function under the conditions encountered for the period oftime intended. The following is presented as a more specific definition of the reliability of a bulk power electric system:

Reliability, in a bulk power electric system, is the degree to which the performance of the elements of that system results in power being delivered to consumers within accepted standards and in the amount desired. The degree of reliability may be measured by the frequency, duration, and magnitude of adverse effects on consumer service.

Bulk power electric system reliability can be addressed by considering two basic and functional aspects of the bulk power system-adequacy and security.

Adequacy is the ability of the bulk power electric system to supply the aggregate electric power and energy requirements of the consumers at all times, taking into account scheduled and unscheduled outages of system components.

Security is the ability of the bulk power electric system to withstand sudden disturbances such as electric short circuits or unanticipated loss of system components.

The preceding definition is intended for engineers' use and may seem unduly involved for this publication. Paraphrasing each paragraph may make it appear less technical. Reliability is described as being how well the utility succeeds in giving the customer the quality and continuity of service he desires. Having the necessary generating units and transmission lines to do this properly is termed 'adequacy.' Having a system which resists disturbances is termed 'security. ' Both characteristics are present in a reliable bulk power system.

Interruptions

There are two classes of disruptions to the continuity of electrical supply.

• The larger class of disruptions consists of the interruption of service to a comparatively small number of consumers due to problems in the local electrical distribution system. In many cases, these incidents may be weatherrelated. While the effect on an individual may sometimes be severe, the number of people affected is small, and the extent is local. Consequently, the minimizing of these disruptions and restoring of service can best be done on a local basis.

• The other major class of energy supply disruption can be characterized as infrequent but affecting a greater area and many more people. In many cases, these occurrences are triggered or worsened by events separated by considerable distances. They are often associated with an uncommon set of circumstances such as unusual weather, or generators or transmission lines being out of service or malfunctioning. The widespread effects of this class of disruptions makes them of concern to a broader segment of society.

There are two types of these widespread disruptions. First are those which occur with little warning, and which may extend into widespread, cascading disruptions. They may be triggered by severe storms or equipment failures. The ability of a system to withstand such disturbances is known as 'security.'

The second type results from a shortage in operable generating and transmission equipment. Because there is no practical method of storing electricity in bulk, adequate generating equipment must be in place and operating when the demand occurs. Otherwise, all demand will not be satisfied. An 'adequate' system is one in which such a shortage does not occur. This category of widespread disruptions has been rare. It would be very optimistic to assume that future experience with widespread interruptions will be as good as it has been in the past, considering the changes which have occurred in the utilities' financial and regulatory environment during the past several years.

8

A wide range of may be used in

in the bulk power electric

extreme is a design in which

components are selected and many redundant and are used, with the intention of developing a very system 'availability.' Speed of maintenance and resto-

ration in that system would be less because of the

HO\.'UHualllv) and the rare occurrence

failure.

superb diagnostic

and and personnel

could be acquired or developed with the object of

very fast system restoration. Such a will probably fail

more however, this would also be

"available" because of the speed with which it can be restored to normal operation.

The preferred approach will undoubtedly lie between the two extremes just discussed, and will seek that combination of failure and restoration rates which results in acceptable at the least cost, where 'cost' includes the consumers' costs due to not being supplied.

nplrtCyrrrl'''.,{,P can be exduration and

service U~'JLU" is not as precise, and must be

terms of the expected of the

and of the

• The 'measures' the security of the future bulk

power electric the response of the

future when sub-

disturbances are selected for judgment to show that the bulk power a range of disturbances of

• The 'measures' the adequacy of the future bulk

power electric system by the amount of generating capacity and the capacity of the transmission network with the forecast load and network ments. Each generator and transmission line may be described with a and a probability or other indication of its being available. The forecast load and network requirements are described by a peak demand or a pattern of demands. Comparing generation and transmission capacity with requirements, using a range of probabilities and uncertainties, results in a measure of future system adequacy.

The measurement of bulk power is

mtendeo to determine the or of the system.

It may also out thresholds of unreliability by 1;:;1\."111JIH111O steps of increasingly severe conditions. Simulated testing and probabilistic studies are means of assessing how nearly a proposed system approaches reliability objectives. Such examinations must be approached in a structured and consistent manner to make valid comparisons through time and throughout the bulk power system. What is usually achieved is a series of 'snapshots' of projected future conditions. On the conservative side, planners recognize that corrective operating actions may be available in the real future system to minimize any disturbance that occurs.

Chapter 3 and the provide a more

discussion of this

Society's Role

Reliability

To society, the important reliability characteristics of Ul<'.H11C;U bulk power systems are:

• Widespread adverse effects on customer service are minimized

• Outages are confined in extent

• The system can be restored rapidly after an outage

• The cost to the consumers is in accord with their ;"'U.U'''C~Hy expectations and willingness to pay

to be achieved within each of

the characteristics is dependent on the utilities' perception of what the customers believe they will require, or will be to pay for, in the future.

Economics is a vital of all considerations;

improving requires spending money. Reliability can be improved so as to increase the consumers' comfort, convenience and safety only at the expense of some competing need. In the in the electric utility industry had increased in response to the increasing dependence on electric service" without causing any particular concern for the cost. Excellent levels of reliability had been obtainable at a low cost to the consumer. Recently, that cost has increased dramatically because of inflation, environmental considerations and limitations placed on the expansion of the bulk power system.

Society has interests in the reliability of electric energy supply in ways other than being simply the consumer. There is a relationship between the price of electric energy and the reliability of the supply. Capacity margins in both transmission and in generation require additional money, but both will enhance the ability of the bulk power system to withstand disturbances. A balance must be struck between the costs of

9

enhancing reliability and the consumer's willingness to pay. In striking this balance, the direct and indirect costs of supply failure must both be considered. These costs or lost values can be relatively obvious-such as product loss or spoilageor subtle, such as the value of sustaining human life in a lifesupport situation, or the value of foregone comfort, recreation or entertainment.

Society can affect the reliability of its power supply in various ways. For example, adding transmission lines can reduce the risk of widespread service interruptions. However, in regulatory proceedings, local or private interests are sometimes weighed more heavily than the contribution that a transmission line can make to the common good. Certification bodies sometimes respond to politically sensitive local concerns more readily than they do to the comparatively remote possibility of widespread service interruptions.

(*)Note that reliability of service as seen by the customer is significantly affected by the performance of the distribution system, but in this document only the reliability of the bulk power system is addressed.

Society also plays a role in the providing of adequate generating capability. Local interests can be influential in determining whether specific generating plants are built. This is particularly so with nuclear power; but is also true in the construction of coal-fired, geothermal and other types of plants.

Restrictions in construction can lead to future shortages of generating capacity. Recovering from a period of shortages is difficult because it takes many years to construct new capacity-and at a total cost much greater than providing adequate capacity on a continuing basis.

The level of reliability that the bulk power system will ultimately achieve depends upon the utility's perception of what the customers will be willing to support financially. That perception is very subjective and is impossible to verify by any direct measurement. The utility must make a qualitative and indirect judgment of the appropriate level based on a combination of many factors, including feedback from the regulators and customers. Because any utility's customers are a diverse group of individuals, the judgment made by the utility reflects its perception of the consensus of that group.

References

A more detailed discussion of reliability engineering applied to power systems is found in Chapter 3 and in the Appendix.

F or lists of publications on the subject of reliability in power systems, see the following three Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers' papers.

Bibliography on the Application of Probability Methods in Power System Reliability Evaluation by Roy Billinton, IEEE Transactions PAS-91, No.2, Mar./Apr. 1972. Contains publications through 1971.

Same title, by Application of Probability Methods Subcommittee, PAS-97, No.6, Nov.lDec. 1978. Contains publications from 1972 through 1977.

Same title, by Application of Probability Methods Subcommittee, paper No. 83WM-053-6. Contains publications from 1978 through 1982.

10

The economic considerations in

What value does the customer costs costs liable

•

industrial or commercial customer can be

the value of the lost or sales and the increased

costs which may be because of a

The cost to a residential customer must be

('nmt,rwt loss and loss

a difficult process. It varies from customer to ("",trw",p,. from locale to from time to and from one weather region to another. It will also vary with the customer's history of service with the expected number and duration of interruptions, and whether the cause of the interruption is obvious to the customer.

Certain customers may desire a significantly lower degree of reliability if there is a corresponding reduction in price. Depending on the circumstances, it is sometimes possible to do this.

The supply to these customers will be limited during times when there are capacity shortages, transmission limitations, or even when operating costs are high.

• The major costs of providing increased reliability are in the additional facilities-generation, transmission and distribution-which are required to insure a more continuous supply of electricity. Facilities fail in service, and the greater the redundancy of facilities, the greater the reliability. The cost of that redundancy is an important consideration. Generally, a system with poor reliability can initially increase its reliability significantly with a relatively small investment, while a system with high reliability can usually increase its reliability only slightly even with a large investment. In real situations it is difficult to determine the optimum amount of investment increase.

• Future requirements for a reliable supply of electricity will be determined by changes both in the value to the

12

INVESTIGATIVE METHODS

"Deterministic" and "probabilistic" are adjectives used to describe different methods of analyzing power system reliability. In the case of a deterministic analysis, possible events are identified as having significant reliability effects. Identification of the events, and estimating their occurrence probability requires judgmental determinations of the analyst, hence the term 'deterministic analysis. '

A probabilistic analysis describes outages in terms of how probable they are, and requires knowledge of the performance characteristics of the components of the bulk power system. These characteristics can be brought together to derive various measures of the reliability of the bulk power system. Probabilistic methods rely less on the judgment of the system planner and more on the analysis method and historical performance of system elements. The choice of methods and the selection of an acceptable reliability level are still matters of judgment.

Most utilities use a combination of deterministic and probabilistic methods in planning. There is a trend toward more use of probabilistic methods as computing capability is increased and as more accurate performance data about system components become available.

The Appendix to this paper is a listing of the more common reliability investigative methods, a discussion of their characteristics, and a brief account of the attributes of each method. The methods can generally be divided into those used to investigate generation and those used to investigate transmission, although a few of the methods listed in the transmission category can be used in combined studies. Deterministic criteria are based upon probabilities derived from planning and operating experience, while probabilistic criteria require judgment in deciding what input data to use and the acceptable probability level to be met.

F or additional publications in the field of power system reliability, see the references listed at the end of Chapter 1.

14

GENERATION RELIABILITY

Introduction

The major divisions of bulk power electric systems are generation and transmission. 'Generation' signifies the total of the generating units, acting as the sources of electricity. 'Transmission' comprises the network of higher capacity lines, which connect the generating plants to each other and to major points of distribution.

This Chapter will deal with the planning of future generation and its effect on the overall system reliability. That effect is determined primarily by:

• the number and size of the generators

• the performance characteristics of the generators

There are also non-generation factors to be considered

such as fuel supply, load characteristics, load forecasts and strength of interconnections. All can affect the amount of generation required for a reliable system. These are also discussed in this Chapter.

Number and Size of Generators

The amount of generating capacity to be provided by a system or Council must be greater than the peak load forecast by the Council or system. The amount above the peak load is referred to as capacity margin. Without this margin, there would not be sufficient capacity to allow for generating equipment outages, reductions in capability, maintenance, or for unanticipated increases in customers' demands.

With all other factors remaining constant, generation capacity margin requirements increase with the size of generators and decrease with the number of units. A system of 1,000 one-megawatt units will have a much lower margin requirement, for the same reliability, than a system with one 1,000-megawatt unit. However, the economies of scale greatly favor larger units. Studies are routinely made to determine the optimum size of generators in a utility. These studies consider the reliability requirements and all costs, including the costs of the original installation and those of operating and maintaining the equipment over its lifetime.

Characteristics of Generating Units

Perhaps the most significant characteristic of generating units that affects reliability is 'availability. ' Availability is a

term describing the readiness of a unit to generate electricity, even though the unit may not be generating at that moment." Generating units may be unavailable due to being forced out or being scheduled out of service for maintenance. Major maintenance is normally performed in selected off-peak load times to minimize the effect on capacity margin requirements. Forced generation outages may occur at any time and their random nature makes them of more consequence than maintenance outages in most systems.

Generating unit availability is usually the result of original design, past maintenance, the mode of operation, environmental regulations, and perhaps of age. Availability can be affected either by actions which reduce the rate of forced outages or the amount of time required for maintenance.

• There are various design alternatives which can affect availability. All design enhancements made to achieve higher availability cost money-which cannot always be justified. Once a unit is built, backfitting to improve availability is usually very expensive and therefore, difficult to justify.

• Unit size may also playa role in availability. National average data indicates that larger units have noticeably lower availability than smaller units; but there are outstanding exceptions to the averages. Size alone may not be the sole factor in this lower availability. The newness of the first large units of the 1960's and early '70's, coupled with a strong desire to reduce first costs, may have been major factors contributing to decreased availability. Later designs have placed more importance on reliability, availability and maintainability. The "small vs. large" issue remains to be settled, and is certainly considered when additional generating capability is being planned.

• Unavailability due to forced outages can be kept at a minimum with more frequent and more extensive maintenance. At the same time, this can result in higher maintenance costs and more outage time taken for such work. The cost of replacement energy required during maintenance is also a consideration.

• Operating practices affect availability. For example, some utilities are being faced with more overnight shutdowns of generating units. This 'cycling' of units that were originally designed for continuous operation is expected to reduce availability because of the deterioration

16

is me;, ,",,,,,,,,,,

related to its age, one •

of Neither

lI:HIHIHl)S the

be caused

• Because financial

deterioration

•

• Environmental fossil-fired unit

unit are conversion of existing units to burn

low sulfur coal lowers the availability and

of those units. Boilers and associated equipment designed for one coal type generally exhibit a lower

performance when another type of coal.

*For a engineering definition, see ANSI/IEEE Trial Use

Standard 762, December 1980.

Other Considerations

When calculating the expected reliability of generation, there are certain non-generation considerations. Among them are fuel supply, load characteristics, strength of interconnections and peak demand forecasts.

• The reliability of generating units is affected by the continuity of fuel supply and the quality of the fuel received. Severe winters have adversely affected the delivery of coal, and have resulted in handling difficulties due to freezing. Any interruption in fuel supply can cause short-term reductions in reliability. Similarly, a lowering in quality of the fuel will reduce efficiency of the generating unit or increase frequency of maintenance.

• All peak demands do not occur simultaneously, and this fact can noticeably affect generation requirements. The effect is exemplified by the Mid-continent Area Power Pool (MAPP). The peak demand of the MAPP Council is less than the sum of the peak demands of the member

•

condition. surpass the .,li:lllUiUU

Generating "'<UJa .. ,n

an allowance

• If a system is predominantly winter-peaking or summerpeaking, there may be sufficient load reduction from the peak season to allow for maintenance of generating units without substantially affecting reliability. With insufficient seasonal load variation, the maintenance of generators requires more generating capacity margin to maintain the same level of reliability.

• Utilities must commit to new base load generation about ten to twelve years ahead of the need. This long range commitment is dependent on peak load estimates which, in turn, project some level of economic growth. Some allowance for variability in economic growth is properly included in planned generation capacity margins. NERC Reliability Councils and systems generally consider deviations from load forecasts and some have determined the sensitivity to these deviations. Certain studies that recognize the possibility of moderate forecast deviations have resulted in planned capacity margin requirements being as much as five percentage points higher than when the uncertainty in load forecasts is neglected.

17

The Amount of Capacity Margin

From the earliest days of electric power systems, a generating capacity margin has been known to be essential for reliable service. Margins were then usually determined by a combination of experience and judgment balanced against the financial capability of the utility. There were no analytical tools to determine numerically the level of reliability resulting from a selected level of installed capacity. Since then, engineers have developed better computational techniques which allow the use of probabilistic methods in evaluating "adequacy." The speed and data-handling capability of computers allow the study of alternatives and of sensitivity to variations in plans. Today, probabilistic techniques are in wide use for calculating the amount of generation needed for an adequate system. A number of different mathematical formulations have been developed to suit the somewhat differing needs of various utility systems.

Required inputs to the analyses are a forecast of the load and an estimate of the future planned and forced generating outages. These inputs are expressed mathematically, then brought together to calculate the probability or expectation of having insufficient generating capacity to serve the demand. After comparing with the minimum level of adequacy adopted by the system, pool or Council, judgment is made between adequacy and cost. If the minimum level of adequacy cannot be met, either more generating capacity must be added or purchases from other utilities must be foreseen. Should the cost be more than the utility's perception of the customers' willingness to pay, the alternative is not to add resources and to expose customers to a higher probability of interruption of service. The balance between cost and adequacy is changeable and is reviewed periodically, especially during periods of rising costs. A capacity margin level that was proper ten years ago may become uneconomical in the future. Conversely, the economics of minimizing the total costs of energy supply to the customer may justify a level of generating capacity above that required solely for adequacy.

Acceptable levels of reliability are somewhat judgmental, but they reflect a thoughtful cost-benefit evaluation. Figure 2 is a graph of a relative reliability index as a function of generating capacity. The curve is for illustrative purposes and does not apply to any specific system or Council; however, the general nature of the curve is the same for all. Near the bend in the curve there are capacity levels above which there is little improvement in adequacy (benefit) for an additional increment of capacity (cost). On the other hand, there is a rapid deterioration in adequacy for small reductions in capacity. This indicates that a reasonable balance between capacity margin and adequacy can be achieved.

Figure 2

VARIATION OF RELIABILITY WITH CAPACITY MARGIN

18

In recent years, much attention has been given to optimizing installed capacity by determining the amount which results in the least total cost from a consumer's standpoint. Techniques such as the Electric Power Research Institute's (EPRI) Over/Under Capacity Program* have been developed which give additional insight into the relationship of capacity margin to reliability and the economic tie between them.

Figure 3 typifies the additional cost to customers due to deviating from the least-cost capacity margin level for specific systems that participated in the EPRI study. Both curves show a rather wide range of margins that nearly satisfy the minimum cost. The optimum capacity margin can vary among utilities because of differences in generator types, fuel costs, load characteristics, etc. For example, a region highly dependent on oil might justify additional coal or nuclear capacity for economy reasons, even though its reliability (adequacy) criteria were more than satisfied by the amount of generating capacity already installed. Regardless of the system under study, the "U" shaped characteristic of the Over/Under Capacity total cost curve invariably results. The optimum capacity margin for a system is at the bottom of the usually rather broad "U," indicating that a wide range of margins would satisfy (or nearly satisfy) the minimum cost requirement. It also means that moderate deviations from optimum installed capacity will not severely affect consumers' costs.

As noted previously, a region heavily dependent on oil might justify coal and/or nuclear for economic reasons. It should be noted that the projected high price of oil and gas is a necessary result of the uncertainty of the future supply of oil and gas. Therefore, the justification of an oil and gas dependent region installing coal and/or nuclear capacity is based as much on the need to diversify the fuel sources to improve reliability as to achieve a lower cost, long-term supply of fuel.

*"Costs and Benefits of Over/Under Capacity in Electric Power System Planning," EPRI EA 927, October 1978.

Figure 3

VARIATION OF CUSTOMERS' COSTS WITH CAPACITY MARGIN

Adapted from "Costs and Benefits of Over/Under Capacity in Electrical Power System Planning", EPRI EA-927, October, 1978.

19

20

TRANSMISSION RELIABILITY

Transmission Functions

The previous chapter discussed generation as one of the two major divisions of a bulk power electric system. The second major division is transmission, which comprises the interconnected network of higher capacity lines. The function of a transmission system is twofold-to provide a path for electricity from the points of generation to the major distributing points, and secondly, to connect the sources of electricity together so that they operate as an integrated whole. A source of electricity may be either a generating unit or a neighboring utility.

Other specific functions performed by transmission include providing a path for sales and purchases of electricity from other systems, providing a path for emergency support during an unexpected generating unit outage, and insuring the security of the overall bulk power electric system. Some lines provide for one of these functions, while some lines may perform several functions simultaneously.

One characteristic of an interconnected electric power system is that all generators must operate in synchronism. Another is that the total output of these generators plus the power flows on interconnections must equal the instantaneous electric power demands of all customers, plus losses. In other words, the amount of energy leaving the transmission system (plus losses) always equals the amount entering. Therefore, immediately following the outage of a transmission system component, power flows will redistribute themselves on the remaining lines. This occurs without regard to the powercarrying capabilities of the lines. Thus, overloads could occur. Reliability dictates that the bulk power transmission system be designed and operated such that it can always accommodate the redistribution of flows resulting from the more likely outages. The ability of the system to survive disturbances is the aspect called "security" in the definition of reliability given in Chapter 1.

Good Transmission System Design And Operating Practice

Components of the transmission system can become available for a number of reasons and in a very large number of combinations. Reliability considerations require that sufficient redundancy and operating flexibility will rarely result in unacceptable operation, such as instability, overloads,

inadequate voltage or customers' interruptions. To meet those requirements, bulk power transmission systems must be designed and operated to:

• Assure that recovery from the more probable contingencies can be achieved without significant effect on customer service.

• Assure that the more severe, less probable contingencies (which include combinations of component outages) will not result in loss of synchronous operation, cascading outages or the unintentional interruption of a large amount of customer load.

• Provide sufficient flexibility to allow for reliable operation during maintenance or repair.

• Insure prompt restoration to normal operation following more severe, less probable disturbances.

The transmission network must be able to deliver the output of all generating units to the major points of distribution. Both the interconnections with adjacent utilities and the supporting internal transmission system must be sized to accommodate both routine and emergency transfers of energy between utilities. In addition, where not unduly constrained by environmental or economic factors, there must be sufficient redundancy of transmission lines such that no single transmission route will be depended on to carry a disproportionate share of any power transfer. Switching arrangements must be capable of isolating short circuits and quickly restoring the system to normal operation. A reliable system exhibits all of these characteristics.

Reliability Investigative Methods

In the discussion about generation reliability, both deterministic and probabilistic methods were noted. It was pointed out that the use of probabilistic methods has increased to where most utilities use some type of this method. The assessment of transmission reliability has not progressed as far, and is almost wholly restricted to deterministic methods. The uncertainty of data regarding failure rates or availability of transmission components has hampered the implementation of probabilistic assessment techniques. There has been

22

recent progress," however, and the movement toward probabilistic assessment of transmission system reliability appears to be gaining strength.

Meanwhile, transmission system reliability assessment is accomplished by the use of mathematical simulations of present or future systems. Such simulations allow the planner to examine the effects of various line outages or other disturbances; but do not produce a numerical index of reliability. E vents typically examined are single and multiple line outages and combination line-generator outages. These may be combined with a (simulated) power transfer or with disturbances in a neighboring system. Most utilities subscribe to the use of a list of specific disturbances for simulation and a criterion describing what constitutes a successful withstanding of the simulated disturbance. ** The simulated disturbances are of the 'umbrella' type; that is, they are sufficiently severe to imply satisfactory system response to less severe disturbances. Should a proposed system plan not meet the criteria, the plan will be revised.

Generation- Transmission Interdependence

Situations arise where either generation or transmission could be added to a system to meet reliability goals. Installing peaking generation near load centers can enhance the performance of a highly-loaded transmission system, for example.

* For examples: "Proposed Terms for Reporting and Analyzing Outages, etc.," IEEE 84 WM 042-8. Also, EPRI's "Bulk Power System Transmission Reliability Evaluation Method," RP-15 30 is a prototype assessment program now being examined by many utilities.

** For reference, see NERC Regional Council Reliability Criteria, under various titles.

Constraints continually surface in both generation and transmission development; the possibility of using one as a complement to the other provides needed flexibility in planning. The benefits gained from an expansion of one type of facility tend to saturate if there is not a corresponding expansion of the other. Increasing transmission capability into an area has little value unless there is sufficient generating capability to use the increased transmission. Likewise, increased generating capacity can be "bottled-up" without sufficient transmission to deliver the energy to areas of need.

As large geographic areas have become increasingly interconnected with strong transmission, the interdependence among the individual power systems has also increased. Construction and operation of bulk power facilities in one

utility can affect the reliability of neighboring systems. To achieve benefits of wide area integration without adverse effects, the multi-system planning and operation of both generation and transmission facilities must be well coordinated. The North American Electric Reliability Council and its Regional Reliability Councils, and other groupings of electric power systems all contribute to the coordination process. The total effect of proper planning and operation of all the integrated facilities establishes the reliability of the overall bulk power electric system.

Society's Role in Transmission Reliability

Transmission system developments have smaller effects on the customer's bill than do generation projects. However, the customer still exercises a choice among a set of values. Those values include the cost of electricity, the worth of reliability, and the perception of the effect of transmission lines on the surroundings.

Transmission lines require a right-of-way on which to build. If that right-of-way cannot be secured, the line cannot be built. Should individuals or groups block the construction of a needed tranmission line, they could be subjecting an area to a greater exposure to a blackout or they may be forcing a more costly solution to a supply problem. In addition, they may be denying the utility the ability to buy and sell energy economically with another utility. Any of these effects are the result of a choice made, by the customer, between bulk power electric system reliability and other values.

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RELIABILITY ENGINEERING BASICS

I. GENERAL

Reliability as applied to a bulk power electric supply system is well within the general discipline of Reliability Engineering. However, there are certain characteristics of bulk power system components, (individually or grouped as a system) which require a somewhat different treatment.

A. Unique Considerations

Bulk electric power system reliability considerations are unique in the following ways:

1. The duration of the "mission" of the bulk power electric supply system is very long compared with that of many other systems.

2. The bulk power electric supply system is composed of numerous repairable components-complicating any probabilistic analysis of its reliability. A further complication is that generators may be available to the system, but require time to be loaded.

3. The bulk power electric supply system is composed of many series and parallel-connected system elements and must be treated as a network, also complicating analyses.

4. An outage of one element can cause instability and consequent outages of a large number of other elements.

5. It is not unique for a consumer to exert an influence over the design of a product; but it may be surprising to some that the electricity consumer, along with the engineer, the installer, the operator and the regulator of the electric supply system, provides one of the inputs into the question of what constitutes an optimally designed electric power system.

B. Analysis Complications

Reliability analysis of a real bulk power electric supply system is complicated by the following factors:

1. Many of the components of the bulk power electric supply system have several states of possible operation; for instance, generating units can experience partial failures (a failure of some component or sub-system which reduces, but does not eliminate, the output of the generating unit).

2. The mission of the bulk power electric supply system involves meeting a demand for electricity which is both uncertain and variable throughout the year while at the same time allowing for planned and unplanned outages of system components.

3. A realistic treatment of power system reliability treats failures of components of the bulk power electric system as being statistically interdependent and subject to multiple failures having common causes.

4. Including the transmission system in an analysis of loss of continuity from generation through the bulk power electric system is much more difficult than analyzing generation system reliability alone. This is because ofthe many possible failure modes of the transmission system, the great number of transmission system outages which do not result in any loss of continuity between generating source and customer, and the need to consider time-related aspects of events and corrective actions.

5. Widespread generating unit outages which result in loss of power supply to consumers are such rare events that they can be described only in probabilistic terms. However, for the duration of each generating unit outage, there is an increase in the cost of providing electricity to the consumer. This is not true of transmission; transmission unreliability by itself rarely affects costs of electricity directly except for increased losses. However, there may be indirect effects due to generating units being required to operate in below-optimum combinations when transmission outages restrain their output.

n. INVESTIGATORY METHODS

The following is an extensive, although not all-inclusive, listing of reliability investigatory methods used by electric utilities.

A. Generation Adequacy Investigatory Methods

Probabilistic methods are widely used for adequacy analysis in generation planning. The method used must be chosen in accordance with the problem and available data. None of the following methods includes the effect of transmission.

1. Contingency Outage Reserve Criteria Contingency outage

reserve capacity is generating capacity in excess of projected loads, losses and scheduled maintenance, which may be brought into service to substitute for generation outages. The amount of generation reserves depends upon the particular outage to be guarded against. Typical criteria are the outage of the largest generating unit on the system, the outage of the two largest units, etc. This deterministic method is the most easily understood of any, although it does not develop the probability of the particular outages occurring, and omits the consideration of most multiple contingencies.

2. Capacity Margin Percentage - This is also a deterministic method of judging the generating system's contribution to bulk power system reliability by calculating the difference between installed capacity and the sum of peak load and losses, expressed as a percentage. This method has been one of the traditional generation reserve evaluation methods of United States utilities. Although widely understood and easily communicated, this method has deficiencies in that it

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does not rigorously reflect the way in which generation system adequacy is affected by changes in generator design, performance, size or location.

3. Energy Reserve Percentage In those few utilities where

fuel supply is a significant consideration in determining whether or not electric load can be served, a deterministic index known as an "energy reserve percentage" has evolved. In most utilities in the world, the ability to supply the demand is principally determined by the available capacity, with fuel supply being considered non-restrictive; therefore, the energy reserve percentage is not a widely used criterion. However, it may be very useful in systems which depend heavily on hydroelectric generation.

4. Contingency Plus Capacity Percentage Reserve This is a

combination of Methods 1 and 2 and is frequently used in reference to annual or monthly peak demand. It is a deterministic method having the advantages and disadvantages of the two methods it has combined.

5. Probability Methods Based on Capacity - There are several probability methods used by utilities to develop different indices of generating adequacy. The methods are all dependent upon the accuracy of the reliability data ofthe components of the system. There are four general probability methods in use:

a. Loss of Load Probability (LOLP)

b. Loss of Energy Probability (LOEP)

c. Frequency and Duration Methods

d. Monte Carlo Simulation Techniques

The unavailability of generation can have adverse effects on the reliability of power supply to the customers and can also have adverse effects on the price of power. These methods can be used to evaluate the adverse effects on reliability and on price, although it is most common for them to be applied only to the reliability effects.

The characteristics or dimensions of the adverse effects are the frequency, the duration, and the magnitude of the adverse effect, as measured by the amount of interrupted customer demand or energy. The LOLP combines two of the dimensions (frequency and duration) of the adverse effect into one index, reflecting the probability of being unable to supply the customer demand. The LOEP method combines all three dimensions ofthe adverse effect into a single index reflecting the unsatisfied energy requirements. Frequency and duration methods are designed to derive the frequency and duration of the adverse effect, without indicating the magnitude, The Monte Carlo simulation methods are techniques which also can consider the three dimensions of the adverse effect. These techniques are particularly suited to large systems. None of the above methods provides information on interruptions to specific customers unless further assumptions are made as to load shedding practices.

There are many variations of probability methods. There are differences in the representation of hourly and daily loads, in the treatment ofload forecasting uncertainty, in the treatment of non-conforming loads, immature unit forced outage rates,

multi-state unit representation, automatic or manual development of long-term maintenance schedules, seasonal capacity ratings of units and representation of interconnections with neighboring utilities.

These probability methods (5-a, b, c, d) have the disadvantage of expressing generation adequacy in terms which are not familiar to those outside of the utility industry.

B. Bulk Power Transmission Practices

Deterministic analysis probably plays a wider role in the reliability assessment of bulk power transmission than in the assessment of generation, although probabilistic methods are being introduced by some utilities and utility groups. Various transmission assessment practices are discussed briefly as follows:

Assessment

1. Deterministic Assessment Practices Deterministic analy-

sis of bulk power transmission usually begins with a simulation of transmission system performance under pre-selected severe future conditions and compares the performance against established criteria which are almost always deterministic. The experience of the transmission planners, as well as their knowledge of the specific system under study, is very important to the quality of a deterministic assessment.

This method avoids the time-consuming task of testing all mathematical possibilities by inserting the judgment of the planner. Out of all of the configurations of transmission and combinations of generators which can realistically exist, the experienced planner can select those which will disturb the system most. A quantitative measure of bulk power transmission security is not produced in these methods; but the judgment of the planner enables a ranking to be made of the risks of each particular combination of events.

Deterministic methods are well defined and are extensively used in power system transmission planning.

2. Continuity Assessment Practices - Continuity methods are defined as a general class of probability calculations used to determine the reliability of the connection between source and load. (Load is defined to be the demand and energy output of the bulk power system.) Measures of reliability developed using these methods are usually the probability of maintaining continuity, or the probability of failure to maintain continuity, or the frequency and duration of failure to maintain continuity. This method is suitable for analyzing radial transmission systems.

Continuity methods commonly used are:

a. Failure Mode and Effects Analysis This is the identifi-

cation of all scenarios which result in loss of continuity between source and load followed by a computation of the frequency and average duration of each of the scenarios to obtain an overall system failure frequency and average duration. This is the most general of the methods and can include common mode failures; however, it is only applicable where the outage events are independent. The solution entails a procedure by which equivalent system outage, frequency and duration rates are developed from

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the failure and repair rates of the system's individual components by a successive application of series-parallel formulas.

b. State Space Analysis There are complex and powerful

mathematical solutions to determine the frequency, duration and probability of a transmission network operating in each of the possible outage states that interrupt the continuity of service. The methods correctly account for conditional dependencies of the individual line outages. Some of the mathematical techniques used are Markov, Frequency Balance and Monte Carlo solutions.

Advantages/Disadvantages The advantages and disadvantages of continuity methods are: System investigation can be limited to those cases which are required to determine the performance of the bulk power system. The data required, although perhaps not easily available, are simple. The methods are well documented and easily understood. The methods cannot adequately include component

~capability limitations and voltage restrictions and the possibility of the system becoming unstable. The method is computationally difficult to apply for dependent outage events.

3. Probabilistic Weighting Assessment Practices Some

practices include an assessment of the value of transmission reliability using probabilistic weighting methods. These adjust the classical deterministic power flow results by the probability of occurrence, cost, and magnitude of consequences. Two probabilistic methods frequently used to weight classical power flow results are cost versus risk analysis and contingency probability weighting methods.

Using probabilistic weighting methods, investigation can be limited to only those cases which are expected to affect the performance of the bulk power system. These methods can quantify the relative reliability of the bulk power transmission system for the different, predetermined system failures. These methods are easily applied for a reasonable cost. As the system becomes larger and more complex, it becomes more difficult to insure that all critical conditions are investigated. It can be difficult to address the transmission system adequately for all generation and load patterns. A quantitative overall bulk power system reliability index is not derived.

4. Stochastic Load Flow Assessment Practices - Stochastic load flow assessment recognizes the uncertainties in the demands by considering the bus loads as probability distributions in the calculation of power flow parameters. Generation is also treated in a probabilistic manner. Stochastic load flow techniques are in the early stages of development. To date, these methods have not been widely applied to contingency analysis or reliability assessment but appear to have some potential in this area. The advantage of the stochastic load flow method is that it can be adapted to the continually changing load conditions in the calculation of the probable line flows and the component's limits. The disadvantage is that the increased data requirements and more sophisticated load modeling greatly increase computing difficulty and voltages and system instability are not considered.

c. Bulk Power System Reliability Assessment Practices Analysis of the composite system including both generation and transmission applies the solutions described under the separate practices. These composite approaches include:

1. Independent Transmission and Generation Assessment - Independent transmission and generation assessment is a rrrethod of combining generation and transmission reliability indices, that are calculated separately, to form a composite indication of reliability. The failure rate and restoration rate, or probability of failure for each transmission component is required. The most common application ofthis method uses a table of the probabilities of system loss of load due to the generation effects and combines this table with one of the probability of having adequate transmission capability to deliver the generation to the load. A disadvantage of this method is that any significant variation in initial dispatch or in the transmission system configuration calls for a complete recalculation. Furthermore, these methods do not attempt to include all of the interactive effects of generation and transmission outages. This method is suitable for solving two area problems.

2. Integrated Generation and Transmission Assessment Practices Experimental integrated generation and transmission assessment methods are being developed. These are a type of composite generation and bulk power transmission reliability analyses in which the generation and transmission system are fully integrated in the calculation procedure. Data requirements and computing capability are extensive.

These methods are in a very early stage of development and are limited to those cases which are expected to affect the performance of the system. Due to the complexity and sophistication of these methods, it may be necessary to make special analyses of low probability events which can cause widespread disruption.

Considerable interest is being shown in the development of these methods by the industry.

3. Monte Carlo Assessment Practices It is possible to evaluate the reliability of a power system by using a direct simulation method such as the Monte Carlo method. If enough computing capacity is available, this method can be very accurate; however, it requires extensive data and large computing capability. If less than adequate computing capability is available, the system may fail to review some critical event because of the low probability of occurrence, even though the event results in a large system impact.

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NORTH AMERICAN ELECTRIC RELIABILITY COUNCIL

Western Systems Coordinating Council

ASCC

Alaska Systems V

Coordinating Council i? (Affiliate) '&

Coordinating Council

East Central Area Reliability Coordination Agreement

Mid-continent Area Power Pool

Mid-America Interpool Network

Electric Reliability Council of Texas

Southeastern Electric Reliability Council

Southwest Power Pool

The North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC) was formed by the electric utility industry in 1968 to promote the RELIABILITY of bulk power supply in the electric utility systems of North America. NERC consists of nine Regional Reliability Councils and one affiliate encompassing virtually all of the power systems in the United States and Canada.

Bulk power electric system reliability can be addressed by considering two basic and functional aspects of the bulk power system-adequacy and security.

ADEQUACY is the ability of the bulk power electric system to supply the aggregate electric power and energy requirements of the consumers at all times, taking into account scheduled and unscheduled outages of system components.

RELIABILITY, in a bulk power electric system, is the degree to which the performance of the elements of that system results in power being delivered to consumers within accepted standards and in the amount desired. The degree of reliability may be measured by the frequency, duration, and magnitude of adverse effects on consumer service.

SECURITY is the ability of the bulk power electric system to withstand sudden disturbances such as electric short circuits or unanticipated loss of system components.

Copyright © 1985 by North American Electric Reliability Council. All rights reserved.