Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Expert Perspectives and Future Scenarios for the Radio Media in 2015
Marko Ala-Fossi Brian O’Neill Helen Shaw
University of Tampere, Finland Dublin Institute of Technology, Ireland Dublin City University, Ireland
Stephen Lax Per Jauert Lars Nyre
University of Leeds, UK University of Aarhus, Denmark University of Bergen, Norway
DRACE is an academic research group that specializes in studies of radio
and audio media.
There is a widespread belief that radio must re-invent itself in the new
digital age to avoid a long term decline. If it does not go digital, it is
claimed, radio could become obsolete and lose younger audiences who
have become accustomed to a vast array of digital choices in their media
experiences.
http://www.drace.org 2
Contemporary Radio – challenges and
significant change
Convergence of technology and media platforms
through mobile communications and the Internet
New generations of radio listeners has developed
new media habits
The present situation of radio in Europe:
- tens of thousands of stations
- two hundred million listeners who spend
about three hours per day listening
The long term future and viability of radio cannot
be taken for granted.
http://www.drace.org 3
Digital Radio in Europe
Technologies, Industries and Cultures
http://www.drace.org 4
Digital Radio in Europe: Technologies,
Industries and Cultures
The aim of the book (forthcoming March 2010) is to
critically examine this process of change and re-
invention.
http://www.drace.org 6
Possible digital broadcasting
systems for radio
DVB-T Digital Video Broadcasting
[Terrestrial]
(digital TV)
DVB-H Digital Video Broadcasting
[Handheld]
(mobile TV)
…
IBOC i.e. HD Radio
A proprietory system from the US
ISDB-T
Developed in Japan, will be used also in Brazil
http://www.drace.org 7
Multiplex = a bundle of audio channels
delivered over the same frequency channel
DAB multiplex: 9 radio services
http://www.drace.org 8
Expert perspectives on the
present future of radio
Data: 43 expert interviews between
05/2005-06/2006
Ireland (3), UK (13), Denmark (6), Finland
(11) and Canada (10)
Method: Qualitative content analysis
with a grounded approach
Theoretical approach: Based on social
shaping of technology perspective and
diffusion of innovations theory
http://www.drace.org 9
How do you think people will
receive radio content in 2015?
Most respondents believed in some kind of digital
terrestrial radio in their home countries
DAB will be a strong option in the UK and Denmark,
but even there supplemented with DRM and DMB
DVB-H was popular in Finland, while Canada might
have IBOC, DAB and satellite radio
Most respondents believed that FM radio will still
remain significant both in Europe and Canada
Internet-based radio and audio services will grow,
but the idea of satellite radio was rejected in Europe
No consensus about the dominant European
way of delivering radio in 2015: on the
contrary, most believed that there will be
distinct national solutions
http://www.drace.org 10
Why the future of radio then
will be like that ->
Differences in national regulation and frequency
administration will result fragmentary situation in
Europe
Proprietary systems will not be tolerated, expensive
copyrights may prevent the use of certain systems
The existing market penetration of FM radio means
that it will be around for a while
DAB is an expensive and uneconomic system for
commercial and community stations
DAB coverage patterns do not match with the needs
of commercial and community stations
In Europe, DRM is the favorite secondary system –
also to supplement or even replace DAB
http://www.drace.org 11
What would be the content of
radio in 2015 ?
Two main trends everywhere:
Personalized / on-demand radio will grow
Higher listener sovereignty: more specialized
options, no schedules - audio where and when you
want it
More content will be produced by the audiences,
some may be non-edited
Traditional broadcast / linear radio will
remain because of its strengths
Mobility, easy access, real-time broadcasts,
localism, entertainment as well as traditional
journalistic and artistic audio programming
However, different types of content may be linked
to different platforms
http://www.drace.org 12
"Digital Diversity" 14
Multimedia, on-demand and subscription "Multimedia Market"
services are gradually becoming as
15 important as traditional broadcast audio
33
22
19
5 27
25,6% 20,9%
8
18 43
41
2 4 38
23 26 24
6 16 Content consumption
42
Radio w ill become digital by using Digital radio w ill have a dominant
different technologies in different 35 Delivery technology design: a globally used technology or a
markets. No dominant design on a 21 combination of fully complementary
global level 31 technologies
40
12 32
17
34
37,2% 20 16,3%
13 10 7
29 25 39
1
37 30 11 9
http://www.drace.org
World DMB & EBU digital radio
receiver profiles (09/2008)
http://www.drace.org 14
radio 2.0 user generated content
dialogue
i - radio
e - radio
visibility
accessibility
Radio as we know it 15
http://www.drace.org
DRM + is a promising
candidate…
http://www.drace.org 16
… but still under development !
http://www.drace.org 17
How far are we .....?
Distribution of weekly listening to the 3
digital platforms in the UK
http://www.drace.org 18
What is ahead of us ...2020?
• From flow to on demand
• From broadcasting to narrowcasting
• diversified content - “digital synergy radio”
----------------------
• From one-platform to multi-platform
• mobile media
• From one or two standards - to many
standards (multi standard radio sets)
• From passive listening to active choosing
• EPG’s: “Pandora” - www.last.fm
http://www.drace.org 19
...the future of radio is digital - but
which one - and when?
pjauert@imv.au.dk
http://www.drace.org 20