35% $400

$376

30%
$350
$338
25%
$300
20%

$250
15%

10% $200

5%
$150

0%
-1.4% $100
-5%

-10% $50
-10%

-15% $-
Jan-48 Jan-58 Jan-68 Jan-78 Jan-88 Jan-98 Jan-08

Recession Consumer Credit Annual % Change Monthly Retail Sales Annual % Change Monthly Retail Sales ($ Billions)

1947-2009 Average homeowners equity: 65%

80% 20%
(right axis)
60%
15%
40% 43%
SP500 Operating EPS - left axis
20% 10%

0%
5%
-20% Retail Sales - right axis
0%
-40% -39%

-60% -5%
Homeowners Equity Annual % Change - right axis
-80%
-10%
-10%
-100% -101%
-12%
-120% -15%
Dec-47 Dec-52 Dec-57 Dec-62 Dec-67 Dec-72 Dec-77 Dec-82 Dec-87 Dec-92 Dec-97 Dec-02 Dec-07

Homeowners Equity SP500 Operating EPS Annual % Change Quarterly Retail Sales Annual % Change Homeowners Equity Annual % Change