Kettle1 Research

OFHEO NJ HPI (All Transactions), Dec 2010

(3% trend was based off of the 100 yr trend)
600
OFHEO NJ HPI would have to drop about 40% from current
levels to come in line with the 3% trend as calculted from
1985 based on the overall 100 yr RE trend, and about a 50%
500 drop from peak value to reach the 3% trend.

400

300

200

100

0
Mar-75

Jan-77

Jun-83

Mar-86

Jan-88

Jun-94

Mar-97

Jan-99

Jun-05

Mar-08

Jan-10
Oct-79

Oct-90

Oct-01
May-84
Apr-85

May-95
Apr-96

May-06
Apr-07
Nov-78

Aug-81

Nov-89

Aug-92

Nov-00

Aug-03
Feb-76

Sep-80

Jul-82

Feb-87

Sep-91

Jul-93

Feb-98

Sep-02

Jul-04

Feb-09
Dec-77

Dec-88

Dec-99
OFHEO NJ HPI 3% Trend
 100
120
140
160
180
200

20
40
60
80

0
1890
1893
1896
1899
1902
1905
1908
1911
1914
1917
1920
1923
1926
1929
1932
1935
1938
1941
1944
1947

Nominal Home Price Index

1950
1953
1956
1959
1962
1965
1968
1971
Shiller 100 yr data (US RE)

1974
1977
1980
1983
Nominal Home Price 3% Trend
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
Kettle1 Research