Wind Speed (0-5 scale) 3 Body Fat Percentage (%) 14 Overcast Value (0-5 scale) 5 Age (years) 48 Air Temperature (°F) 58 Body Mass Index 25 Water Temperature (°F) 61 Resting Heart Rate 70 Humidity Level (%) 25 Average Race Heart Rate 130 Current Value (+1, 0 or -1) 1 Swim Experience (1-5 scale - see below) 5 Distance of Swim (K) 25 Mental strength (1-5 scale - see below) 5 Swim Difficulty (0-5 scale) 3 Pre-existing conditions (Yes-3, No-1) 1 eF (formula #1) 63 pR (formula #1) 28 eF (formula #2) 72.9 pR (formula #2) 68.3 Perceived Participant Value (ppV) based on formula #1 2.3 = eF ÷ pR = ppV Perceived Participant Value (ppV) based on formula #2 1.1 = eF ÷ pR = ppV Hypothermia Probability Risk Assessment with a ppV between 1.1 - 2.3, the probabililty of hypothermia is assumed to be LOW PROBABLE PARTICIPANTS RISK (ppR) Low probable risk of hypothermia >3 Average probable risk of hypothermia 3-5 High probable risk of hypothermia <5
Equation for EVENT FACTORS (eF)
eF = Wind Speed + Overcast Value + Air Temperature - Water Temperature ÷ Humidity + Current Value + Distance ÷ Difficulty of Swim Equation for PARTICIPANT RATING (pR) pR = (Body Fat % x BMI ÷ Age + Ave Race Heart Rate - Resting Heart Rate + Swim Experience ÷ Mental Strength) x Pre-existing Conditions Equation for PERCEIVED PARTICIPANT VALUE (ppV) ppV = eF ÷ pR RECOMMENDATION to Race Director, Coach, Athlete, Parent Compare ppV to ppR in order to determine relative range of risk