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HYPOTHERMIA PROBABILITY RISK ASSESSMENT - EXAMPLE

EVENT FACTORS Value A SWIMMER RATING Value B


Wind Speed (0-5 scale) 3 Body Fat Percentage (%) 14
Overcast Value (0-5 scale) 5 Age (years) 48
Air Temperature (°F) 58 Body Mass Index 25
Water Temperature (°F) 61 Resting Heart Rate 70
Humidity Level (%) 25 Average Race Heart Rate 130
Current Value (+1, 0 or -1) 1 Swim Experience (1-5 scale - see below) 5
Distance of Swim (K) 25 Mental strength (1-5 scale - see below) 5
Swim Difficulty (0-5 scale) 3 Pre-existing conditions (Yes-3, No-1) 1
eF (formula #1) 63 pR (formula #1) 28
eF (formula #2) 72.9 pR (formula #2) 68.3
Perceived Participant Value (ppV) based on formula #1 2.3 = eF ÷ pR = ppV
Perceived Participant Value (ppV) based on formula #2 1.1 = eF ÷ pR = ppV
Hypothermia Probability Risk Assessment with a ppV between 1.1 - 2.3, the probabililty of hypothermia is assumed to be LOW
PROBABLE PARTICIPANTS RISK (ppR)
Low probable risk of hypothermia >3
Average probable risk of hypothermia 3-5
High probable risk of hypothermia <5

Equation for EVENT FACTORS (eF)


eF = Wind Speed + Overcast Value + Air Temperature - Water Temperature ÷ Humidity + Current Value + Distance ÷ Difficulty of Swim
Equation for PARTICIPANT RATING (pR)
pR = (Body Fat % x BMI ÷ Age + Ave Race Heart Rate - Resting Heart Rate + Swim Experience ÷ Mental Strength) x Pre-existing Conditions
Equation for PERCEIVED PARTICIPANT VALUE (ppV) ppV = eF ÷ pR
RECOMMENDATION to Race Director, Coach, Athlete, Parent Compare ppV to ppR in order to determine relative range of risk

Copyright © 2011 Chris Dahowski and Steven Munatones