You are on page 1of 1

HYPERTHERMIA PROBABILITY RISK ASSESSMENT - EXAMPLE

EVENT FACTORS Value A SWIMMER RATING Value B


Wind Speed (0-5 scale) 1 Body Fat Percentage (%) 14
Overcast Value (0-5 scale) 0 Age (years) 48
Air Temperature (°F) 92 Body Mass Index 25
Water Temperature (°F) 85 Resting Heart Rate 70
Humidity Level (%) 70 Average Race Heart Rate 130
Current Value (+1, 0 or -1) 1 Swim Experience (1-5 scale - see below) 5
Distance of Swim (K) 5 Mental strength (1-5 scale - see below) 5
Swim Difficulty (0-5 scale) 3 Pre-existing conditions (Yes-3, No-1) 1

eF (formula #1) 23 pR (formula #1) 28


eF (formula #2) 94.5 pR (formula #2) 68.3
Perceived Participant Value (ppV) based on formula #1 0.8 = eF ÷ pR = ppV
Perceived Participant Value (ppV) based on formula #2 1.4 = eF ÷ pR = ppV
Hyperthermia Probability Risk Assessment with a ppV between 0.8 - 1.4, the probabililty of hyperthermia is assumed to be LOW

PROBABLE PARTICIPANTS RISK (ppR)


Low probable risk of hyperthermia >3
High probable risk of hyperthermia 3-5
Dangerous probable risk of hyperthermia <5
Equation for EVENT FACTORS (eF)
eF = Wind Speed + Overcast Value + Air Temperature - Water Temperature ÷ Humidity + Current Value + Distance ÷ Difficulty of Swim
Equation for PARTICIPANT RATING (pR)
pR = (Body Fat % x BMI ÷ Age + Ave Race Heart Rate - Resting Heart Rate + Swim Experience ÷ Mental Strength) x Pre-existing Conditions

Equation for PERCEIVED PARTICIPANT VALUE (ppV) ppV = eF ÷ pR

RECOMMENDATION to Race Director, Coach, Athlete, Parent Compare ppV to ppR in order to determine relative range of risk

Copyright © 2011 by Chris Dahowski and Steven Munatones