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o 260730Z DEC 91
FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5234
INFO MOSCOW POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

CON F IDE N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MOSCOW 036772

DEPT FOR D, P, CIE, sip, NEA, EUR, EURlsov

E.O. 12356: DECL:OADR

TAGS: PGOV, PNAT, PINR, PREL, ECON, UR
SUBJECT: REACTIONS TO ALMA ATA ACCORDS:
RUSSIA, CENTRAL ASIA, MOLDOVA

1. CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT.

SUMMARY
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2. THE RUSSIAN GOVERNMENT RETURNED FROM THE ALMA ATA

SUMMIT WELL-SATISFIED WITH THE OUTCOME: IT ACHIEVED
YEL'TSIN'S MOST IMPORTANT OBJECTIVE BY ENLARGING THE
COMMONWEALTH TO INCLUDE ALMOST ALL THE FORMER SOVIET
REPUBLICS WHILE RETAINING UKRAINE -- THE MOST CRUCIAL
POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC RELATIONSHIP FOR MOSCOW. RUSSIA
ALSO EMERGES AS THE SUCESSOR STATE TO THE FORMER SOVIET
UNION IN INTERNATIONAL BODIES AND IN ULTIMATE
CUSTODIANSHIP OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS. THE CENTRAL ASIAN

UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF STATE

REVIEW AUTHORITY: ROBERT 0 HOMME UNCLASSIFIED
DATE/CASE ID: 17 SEP 2009 200802198
REPUBLICS, WHO HAVE LONG SUPPORTED THE IDEA OF UNION, UNCLASSIFIED
SEE THE COMMONWEALTH AS THE ONLY REAL ALTERNATIVE TO THE
FAILED UNION TREATY PROCESS. THE KEY ISSUES FOR THE
CENTRAL .ASIANS ARE ECONOMIC: SOME REPUBLICS
(TURKMENISTAN IN THE LEAD) WELCOME THE OPPORTUNITY TO
SELL THEIR NATURAL RESOURCES AT WORLD PRICES, WHILE
RESOURCE-POOR REPUBLICS ANTICIPATE UNCONTROLLED PRICES
WITH DREAD. THE MOLDOVAN GOVERNMENT IS HAPPY TO BE IN
THE NEW COMMONWEALTH, A POSITION IN WHICH IT HAS AT LAST
FOUND A SHARED POINT OF VIEW WITH THE BREAKAWAY
TRANS-DNIESTER AND GAGAUZ "REPUBLICS", WHICH SEE THE
COMMONWEALTH AS A MEANS OF SELF-PRESERVATION. THE
ARMENIANS ARE LINKING RATIFICATION OF THE ALMA ATA
ACCORDS WITH RECOGNITION OF THE AUTONOMY OF
NAGORNO-~AKH, OBVIOUSLY A NON-STARTER FOR
AZERBAYDZHAN (SEPTEL). THE GEORGIANS -- THE ONLY
HOLDOUTS AT ALMA ATA AMONG THE TWELVE FORMER UNION
REPUBLICS -- ARE CURRENTLY PREOCCUPIED WITH DOMESTIC
POLITICAL BLOODLETTING; THEY WILL DEAL WITH THE
COMMONWEALTH QUESTION ONCE THEY HAVE DEALT WITH EACH
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OTHER. THE KAZAKHS AND BELORUSSIANS WERE NOT AVAILABLE
FOR COMMENT. END SUMMARY.

TRIUMPH FOR THE RUSSIANS

3. RUSSIAN PRESIDENT BORIS YEL'TSIN CAME HOME FROM ALMA

ATA WITH ALMOST ALL THE CHRISTMAS PRESENTS HE COULD HAVE
WANTED: THE UN SECURITY COUNCIL SEAT FOR RUSSIA; A
FOUR-WAY NUCLEAR ACCORD WHICH PUTS THE LAUNCH BUTTON IN
HIS HANDS (ALTHOUGH WITH VETO POWER BY THE OTHER THREE
REPUBLICS) ; CENTRAL COMMAND OF UKRAINIAN AND BELORUSSIAN
NUCLEAR ~APONS UNTIL THEY ARE ELIMINATED; WITHDRAWAL OF
TACTICAL NUCLEAR WEAPONS FROM UKRAINE, BELARUS' AND
KAZAKHSTAN; MINIMAL ECONOMIC OBLIGATIONS TO THE POORER
CENTRAL ASIAN REPUBLICS. THE CENTRAL OBJECTIVE OF
YEL'TSIN'S POLICY WAS ACHIEVED: THE INCLUSION OF THE
MAXIMUM NUMBER OF NEW COMMONWEALTH MEMBER STATES WITHOUT
LOSING UKRAINE. THE ONLY CLOUD OVER THE MEETING FROM
RUSSIA'S VIEWPOINT WAS THE AMBIGUOUS STANCE OF
KAZAKHSTAN ON JOINING THE NPT AS A NON-NUCLEAR STATE.
THE HARD PART FOR RUSSIA LIES AHEAD, IN RECONCILING ITS
OWN AMBITIOUS REFORM PROGRAM WITH THE POLICIES OF OTHER
REPUBLICS; THE MINSK SESSION ON DECEMBER 30 WILL BE A

UNCLASSIFIED
MAJOR TEST OF THE COMMONWEALTH'S, AND RUSSIA'S, ABILITY
TO DEAL 'WITH THESE PRACTICAL COORDINATION ISSUES. UNCLASSIFIED
4. IN PUBLIC STATEMENTS YEL'TSIN, HIS FIRST DEPUTY
PRIME MINISTER GENNADIY BURBULIS AND RUSSIAN FOREIGN
MINISTER KOZYREV HAVE ALL TRUMPET TED THE FOUR-STATE
NUCLEAR PROTOCOL AS A KEY VICTORY FROM THE ALMA ATA
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TALKS. IN A PRESS CONFERENCE DECEMBER 23, BURBULIS ALSO
PLAYED UP AGREEMENT TO YEL'TSIN'S CUSTODY OF THE NUCLEAR
LAUNCH BUTTON (ALTHOUGH THE OTHER THREE NUCLEAR STATES
RETAIN VETO POWER OVER LAUNCH) -- THE FINAL IMPLEMENT OF
STATE POWER TO BE CEDED TO THE RUSSIAN PRESIDENT BY

GORBACHEV. A BURBULIS STAFFER ADMITTED PRIVATELY,

HOWEVER, THAT MANY CENTRAL ORGANIZATIONAL DECISIONS
REGARDING THE COMMONWEALTH AND DEFENSE ARRANGEMENTS WERE
CONSCIOUSLY DEFERRED UNTIL DECEMBER 30 TO ENSURE THE
ALMA AT
A SESSION DID NOT BREAK DOWN INTO SQUABBLING.
RUSSIAN PARLIAMENTARIANS HAVE YET TO COMMENT PUBLICLY ON
THE ALMA ATA ACCORDS, ALTHOUGH THE PRESIDIUM OF THE
RUSSIAN SUPREME SOVIET MET DECEMBER 23 TO DECIDE, AMONG
OTHER THINGS, WHEN, WHICH AND HOW TO BRING NEW
COMMONWEALTH DOCUMENTS UP FOR RATIFICATION.

CENTRAL ASIAN REPUBLICS

5. GOVERNMENTS OF ALL FIVE CENTRAL ASIAN REPUBLICS HAD

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o 260730Z DEC 91
FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5235
INFO MOSCOW POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

CON F IDE N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 MOSCOW 036772

DEPT FOR D, P, CIE, sip, NEA, EUR, EURlsov

E.O. 12356: DECL:OADR

TAGS: PGOV, PNAT, PINR, PREL, ECON, UR
SUBJECT: REACTIONS TO ALMA ATA ACCORDS:
RUSSIA, CENTRAL ASIA, MOLDOVA

INTENDED TO SIGN GORBACHEV'S DRAFT UNION TREATY, SO ONCE

THE MINSK COMMONWEALTH ACCORD WAS ANNOUNCED THEIR
DECISION HINGED ON EVALUATING WHETHER THIS NEW DOCUMENT
REPRESENTED A VIABLE ALTERNATIVE, OR THE ONLY
ALTERNATIVE, TO THE STALLED UNION TREATY PROCESS. THE
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FIVE GATHERED ?N ASHKHABAD WHERE THEIR MAIN DEMAND WAS
TO BE CONSIDERED EQUAL FOUNDING MEMBERS OF THE
COMMONWEALTH. THE ALMA ATA SUMMIT FULFILLED THIS DEMAND
AND THUS ASSURED WILLING CENTRAL ASIAN PARTICIPATION.

6. ONLY UZBEKISTAN MAINTAINED THAT A FINAL DECISION

COULD COME ONLY AFTER THE REPUBLIC'S DECEMBER 29
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION AND INDEPENDENCE REFERENDUM.

lJNCLASSIFIED
WHILE A SWEEPING VICTORY FOR PRESIDENT KARIMOV IS
VIRTUALLY ASSURED, THE MINORITY THAT SUPPORTS OPPOSITION
UNCLASSIFIED
CANDIDATE MOHAMMED SOLIKH HOLDS A CONTRASTING VIEW OF
THE ALMA ATA ACCORDS. SOLIKH SUPPORTS FULL INDEPENDENCE
FOR UZBEKISTAN IN THE CONTEXT OF COMPLETE SEPARATION
FROM THE UNION. THE UZBEK DEPUTY PERMREP IN MOSCOW
PREDICTS SOLIKH WILL GET A SMALL MINORITY OF THE VOTES
LESS THAN TEN PERCENT.

7 . THE CENTRAL ASIAN REPUBLICS ARE NOW LOOKING TO THE

DECEMBER 30 SESSION IN MINSK FOR CLARIFICATION OF THE
TERMS UNDER WHICH THE COMMONWEALTH WILL FUNCTION. THERE
THEY HOPE TO FLESH OUT OPERATIONAL DETAILS SIDESTEPPED
AT ALMA ATA, PARTICULARLY ECONOMIC ISSUES. MOST
CONTROVERSIAL IS THE ISSUE OF TRADE PRICING AND WHETHER
THE COMMONWEALTH WILL FUNCTION ON THE BASIS OF "WORLD
PRICES." THE RANGE OF DIVERGENT INTERESTS PROMISES SOME
HARD WRANGLING AHEAD THAT COULD THREATEN THE INITIAL
COMMONWEALTH CONSENSUS.

8. CONVERSATIONS WITH CENTRAL ASIAN PERMREPS AND THEIR

DEPUTIES IN MOSCOW REVEALED THAT WHAT KYRGYZSTAN FEARS
MOST AT MINSK IS A DECISION TO TRADE ONLY AT WORLD
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PRICES. TURKMENISTAN, ON THE OTHER HAND, WITH ITS OIL
AND GAS RESOURCES CONFIDENTLY SUPPORTS SUCH A DECISION
AND THE RELATIVE WEALTH THE SWITCH WOULD BRING. AT
MINSK, TURKMAN PRESIDENT NIYAZOV WILL ACTIVELY SUPPORT
SUCH A PROPOSITION. THE UZBEK PERMREP IS NOT PLEASED
ABOUT THE PROSPECT OF INTRODUCING WORLD PRICES, BUT
ACKNOWLEDGES THEIR INESCAPABLE REALITY. THE UZBEK
REVEALED AN "OLD-THINKING" CONCEPT OF WHAT WORLD PRICES
WOULD MEAN -- HE PROPOSED AN AVERAGE CURRENT "WORLD
PRICE" WHICH WOULD BE SET FOR EACH GOOD, AND THEN BARTER
TRADE COULD BE CONDUCTED BETWEEN REPUBLICS AT THAT
PRICE, WHICH WOULD BE FIXED FOR TWO TO THREE YEARS.

9. TURKMENISTAN EMERGED FROM THE CURRENT POLITICAL

PROCESS AS A REGIONAL WINNER. IT WAS PRESIDENT
NIYAZOV'S INITIATIVE THAT BROUGHT THE OTHER FOUR
REPUBLICS TO THE ALMA ATA COMMONWEALTH PROCESS VIA THE
ASHKHABAD DECLARATION. ADDITIONALLY, IN ASHKHABAD THE
CENTRAL ASIAN REPUBLICS ESTABLISHED A "CONSULTATIVE
COMMITTEE OF CENTRAL ASIA AND KAZAKHSTAN" WHICH WILL BE
PERMANENTLY HOUSED IN THAT CITY (IN SOVIET AND

UNCLASSIFIED
POST-SOVIET TERMINOLOGY, KAZAKHSTAN IS NOT A CENTRAL
ASIAN REPUBLIC, ALTHOUGH INVARIABLY TREATED AS SUCH). UNCLASSIFIED
THE CONSULTATIVE COMMISSION IS TO REGULATE CENTRAL ASIAN
REGIONAL I SSUES AS TRADE, AND COULD EVEN DECIDE TO SET
UP A COMMON ECONOMIC SPACE WITHIN CENTRAL ASIA FOR
BARTER TRADE AT PRICES MORE FAVORABLE THAN WORLD
PRICES. TURKMENISTAN LOOKS CONFIDENTLY TOWARD A BRAVE
NEW WORLD OF INCREASED PROSPERITY THROUGH WORLD TRADE OF
ITS NATURAL RESOURCES, AND HAS ALREADY BEGUN
CONSTRUCTION ON A NEW RAILROAD LINK TO IRAN. THROUGH
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THESE TRANSPORT LINKS THEY HOPE TO PLAY THE ROLE OF
INTERMEDIARY BETWEEN CENTRAL ASIA AND THE OUTSIDE WORLD
IN THE NEW COMMONWEALTH.

MOLDOVAN REACTION GENERALLY POSITIVE

10. IN MO
LDOVA, REACTION TO PARTICIPATION IN THE
COMMONWEALTH HAS BEEN GENERALLY POSITIVE, IF NOT
ENTHUSIASTIC. PRESIDENT SNEGUR HIMSELF DESCRIBED THE
ACCORD AS "A GOOD BEGINNING ... AND ONLY TIME WILL SHOW
ITS VIABILITY." THERE IS OPPOSITION TO THE SIGNING
AMONG MORE NATIONALIST MOLDOVANS, ESPECIALLY THE POPULAR
FRONT, WHICH SEES MEMBERSHIP IN THE COMMONWEALTH AS
HAMPERING UNIFICATIoN WITH ROMANIA. HOWEVER, SUPPORT
FOR THE FRONT SEEMS TO BE LAGGING; A DECEMBER 23 PROTEST
RALLY IN FRONT OF THE MOLDOVAN FOREIGN MINISTRY
ATTRACTED ONLY A SMALL CROWD. TO MINIMIZE SUCH
OPPOSITION, TWO MOLDOVAN GOVERNMENT SPOKESMEN,
PRESIDENTIAL COUNSELOR NANTOI AND ION BOTNARU, AIDE TO
FOREIGN MINISTER TIU, AGREED TO APPEAR ON MOLDOVAN
TELEVISION THE EVENING OF DECEMBER 23 TO EXPLAIN THE
DETAILS OF THE ALMA ATA AGREEMENT AND ITS SIGNIFICANCE

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P-01 SCT-03 SDEL-01 SNP-01 SP-01 SSO-OO SS-01
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------------------BB43AA 260736Z 138
o 260730 Z DEC 91
FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5236
INFO MOSCOW POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

CON F IDE N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 MOSCOW 036772

DEPT FOR D, P, CIE, sip, NEA, EUR, EURlsov

E.O. 12356: DECL:OADR

TAGS: PGOV, PNAT, PINR, PREL, ECON, UR
SUBJECT: REACTIONS TO ALMA ATA ACCORDS:
RUSSIA, CENTRAL ASIA, MOLDOVA

FOR MOLDOVA. SPEAKING TO POLOFF, BOTNARU PREDICTED

THERE WOULD BE SOME OPPOSITION TO THE AGREEMENT IN THE
MOLDOVAN PARLIAMENT BUT THAT PRESIDENT SNEGUR'S FORCES
ARE MORE THAN ADEQUATE TO SECURE RATIFICATION. . WITH
UPCOMING CHRISTMAS HOLIDAYS, HE THOUGHT THE VOTE WOULD
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NOT TAKE PLACE UNTIL EARLY JANUARY.

11. FOR ONCE, THE MOLDOVAN GOVERNMENT AND

TRANS-DNIESTER AUTHORITIES ARE IN AGREEMENT, BOTH HAVING
FAVORED tv.!OLDOVAN INCLUSION IN THE COMMONWEALTH. THE
MOLDOVANS ARE PARTICULARLY INTERESTED IN THE ALMA ATA
AGREEMENT'S PROVISIONS ON THE INVIOLABILITY OF EXISTING

lJNCLASSIFIED
BORDERS, GIVEN THEIR PROBLEMS WITH THE BREAKAWAY GAGAUZ
AND TRANS-DNIESTER "REPUBLICS." FOR THEIR PART, THE UNCLASSIFIED
TRANS-DN~ESTER AND GAGAUZ LEADERSHIPS HOPE THE
COMMONWE~TH CAN PERSUADE MOLDOVA TO ACCOMMODATE THEIR
DESIRE FOR A THREE-SIDED MOLDOVAN CONFEDERATION AND ALSO
VIEW COMMONWEALTH MEMBERSHIP AS A BRAKE ON ANY MOVES
TOWARD UNIFICATION WITH ROMANIA. NONE OF THESE ISSUES
WERE ACTUALLY DISCUSSED AT ALMA ATA, ACCORDING TO
BOTNARU.

12. SIGNING THE AGREEMENT WILL HAVE LITTLE IMMEDIATE

PRACTICAL IMPACT ON MOLDOVA, ALTHOUGH THE REPUBLIC WILL
HAVE TO GIVE UP ITS EARLIER ANNOUNCED PLANS TO DEVELOP
ITS OWN CURRENCY. IN THE LONG TERM, HOWEVER, THERE ARE
SEVERAL BENEFITS FOR THE REPUBLIC LEADERSHIP. FOR
PRESIDENT SNEGUR, WHO HAS OPPOSED IMMEDIATE UNIFICATION
WITH ROMANIA BUT WHO HAS TAPDANCED AROUND THE LONG-TERM
ISSUE OF FUTURE UNIFICATION, THE ACT OF JOINING THE
COMMONWEALTH PROVIDES HIM ADDITIONAL BREATHING ROOM
BEFORE HAVING TO TAKE A DEFINITE STAND ON THAT ISSUE.
ADDITIONALLY, JOINING THE COMMONWEALTH MAY ENCOURAGE THE
WEST TO TAKE MOLDOVA'S INDEPENDENCE DECLARATION MORE
SERIOUSL Y . MOLDOVAN GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS WILL NOW
CONCENTRATE ON OBTAINING THE SAME TRAPPINGS OF
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INDEPENDENCE AS THE OTHER FORMER REPUBLICS, ARGUING THAT
THEY SHOULD BE TREATED LIKE THE OTHER COMMONWEALTH
MEMBERS. BOTNARU EMPHASIZED TO POLOFF THAT MOLDOVA WILL
NOW BE EVEN MORE STRONGLY SEEKING FULL U.S. RECOGNITION
AND UNITED NATIONS MEMBERSHIP. IN THAT CONNECTION HE
NOTED THAT PRESIDENT SNEGUR STILL WISHES TO VISIT
WASHINGTON IN MID-JANUARY (BETWEEN JANUARY 8-18,
DEPENDING ON WHEN HIGH-LEVEL APPOINTMENTS ARE POSSIBLE)
AND THAT A MEETING WITH PRESIDENT BUSH IS ESPECIALLY
IMPORTANT TO SNEGUR, AS OTHER NEWLY-ELECTED LEADERS OF
FORMER SOVIET REPUBLICS WHO VISITED WASHINGTON HAVE MET
THE PRESIDENT.

13. REACTIONS OF CAUCASIAN REPUBLICS AND UKRAINE

SEPTELS. COLLINS

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