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FORECASTING
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DECISION-MAKING
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ARE FORECASTS RELIABLE ?
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ADDING VALUES OF SYSTEM DYNAMICS
MODELS
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THE CASE EXAMPLE – WORLDWIDE COMMERCIAL
JET AIRCRAFT & PARTS INDUSTRY
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MORE RELIABLE FORECASTS IN DYNAMIC
MODELS
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MORE RELIABLE FORECASTS IN DYNAMIC
MODELS
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MEANS OF DETECTING CHANGES IN
INDUSTRY
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MEANS OF DEVELOPING MORE CAREFULLY
AMD ROBUST SENSITIVITIES
•Determine those
uncertainties to which
the forecast is more
sensitive – real risks
•Provide better ranges
for the “forecast” and
scenarios, given the
key uncertainties.
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DETERMINATION OF APPROPRIATE
BUFFERS AND CONTINGENCIES
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PERFORMANCE IMPROVEMENT
“FORECASTING”
In investments
In worse-better-before situations
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THANK YOU FOR
LISTENING…
ANY QUESTIONS ?
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