Why Global Warming is Pure Claptrap

Historical data indicates that the average global temperature is gradually trending up (page 4) but not to any extent that would cause world-wide catastrophes. In fact, we are just now recovering from the

"Little Ice Age" and are currently at a temperature that is almost exactly the average over the last 3000 years (page 4). This data also indicates that the world was considerably warmer at various times (page 5) in the past with no ill effects. Now when the term Global Warming is bandied about, people generally mean what is technically called Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW); that is to say, "Human Caused" Global Warming. The theory is that so-called greenhouse gasses form a

blanket that is relatively transparent to incoming ultraviolet radiation from the sun, but is significantly absorptive of outgoing infrared radiation caused by the earth's radiating a portion back into the atmosphere. Currently the Villain Du Jour is Carbon Dioxide, or C02, at least according to the V.N.'s IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Control) [4]. A somewhat technical discussion of this

view may be found in Johnson [3]. Johnson is an alarmist (I'm sure he would agree) who concludes that it is already too late and "life will be extinct in 140 years" no matter what we do or don't do, see (page 3) "We're All Gonna Die". is a competent physicist. He defines the concepts very well, presents some helpful data, and

However, his analyses are based upon assumptions that do not correspond Champion of the loyal

to reality: see (page 2 & 6), "Observed Reality vs IPCC Computer Models".

opposition to this view is Christopher Monckton, former science advisor to Margaret Thatcher and editor of SPPI (Science and Public Policy Institute) [7].

It's strange but the strongest advocates and adversaries of AGW agree that there is not much we can do to change AGW, if in fact it exists. Johnson [3] claims we are doomed at 390 ppm and there is nothing we can do to stop it (Kind of like the Titanic after it hit the iceberg. At least we won't have to worry about those things anymore!) Monckton [7] agrees as follows. Let us assume that everything the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Control or IPCC [4] [5]asserts is true (it isn't, but for argument's sake let's assume so). Their computer models (there are eleven of them, see page 6) predict that by the year 2100 the concentration of C02 will increase by 468 ppmfrom the current 390 ppm to 858 ppm, more than doubling. These models predict a commensurate fJ F rise in global temperature. Suppose we want to do something about this. From [1] we find that the world is currently producing 30 BT (Billion Tons) of CO2 per year or 3000 BT in a century. The concentration of C02 is currently increasing linearly at 2 ppm per year [2].

(1)

(2)

30 BT == 2 ppm == 1 yr 468ppm == 7 of of warming . Therefore to prevent x 1of we must have, = 33.4 years of Hiatus, with abatement of 1002 BT of C02.

LJzr.
2ppm

-+

All factories, cars, animals, people must shut down completely for 33.4 years. (How long can you hold your breath?)

In August 2009 Lindzen and Choi published a paper [6] on radiation data compiled over 15 years from the Earth Budget Radiation Experiment (ERBE). The Figure on (page 6) shows the results in the upper left chart, as well as the predicted results by the eleven IPCC models. The Vertical Axis is the change !'1of radiation (so-called flux) escaping from the earth over the tropics in Watts/m2 against the change!'1 in sea surface temperature oK. Notice that all the IPCC's models predict that as temperature increases, the radiation escaping should decrease. The satellite data, in fact, shows exactly the opposite! The atmosphere is controlling the system with what is termed negative feedback. This means that the system is reacting in such a way as to oppose perturbations from

equilibrium. A simple and practical example is a thermostat. When the temperature in a heated room reaches a certain upper limit the room heating is switched off so that the temperature begins to fall. When the temperature drops to a lower limit, the heating is switched on again. Provided the limits are close to each other, a steady room temperature is maintained. Now when the ERBE data is plugged into the predictive equations they fmd that even if the C02 concentration doubles in the next century, and indeed at the current rate it is increasing only from 390 ppm to 568 ppm, the global temperature will rise only 1 OFnot the 6 or 7 OFpredicted by the IPCC's eleven computer models.

While this is true is the strictest sense, it won't be from Global Warming. The bases for predictions by alarmists like C. Johnson's [3] (the complete melting of the polar ice caps by 2113 and a 246 ft rise in sea levels, etc.) are various unverified postulates. Johnson's is that the earth's equilibrium temperature is a linear function of CO2 (see [3], item 6 and see also [9]). Yet we see on (page 9) in this paper that although C02 is increasing at about 2 ppm/yr, the global temperature actually has been decreasing over the last decade. His postulate is based on one actual point in time (280ppm, 57F) , another carefully cherry picked from the Vostok Ice Dome [10] data (188ppm, 35 F) and a third point that theorizes that the earth's temperature was -4 OFwhen there supposedly was no atmosphere. To his dismay our current point in time (390ppm, 59 F) doesn't

fit his nice linear function (see the second chart on (page 8) generated by me with this point) so he blithely adds 140 years the CO2 accumulation to generate a fourth point that exactly fits his linear trend: a classic example of fudging the data.

1. The World is Really Heating Up! (Actually we have incurred 9 years of cooling, see page 8).

2. Sea Levels Are Rising Fast! (Actually sea levels rose 8 inches in the 20th Century. Average Rise over the last 10,000 years is 4 feet per century, see page 9).

3. The Polar Ice Caps Are Disappearing! (Wrong. They are actually Increasing, see page 10).

4. Hydrocarbons Are To Blame For Glacier Shortening, And It's All Our Fault! (Wrong again. That trend started before the industrial revolution, and continues at the same pace, see page 11).

5. Hydrocarbons

Must Be Controlling the Temperature,

What Else Could It Be?

(How about the Sun? See page 12).

The World Temperature

Is About Average Right Now

MedievalClimateOptimum\

2006

\
3,000- Year Average

LittleIce Age!
500

Year

Surface temperatures in the Sargasso Sea, a 2 million square mile region of the Atlantic Ocean, with time resolution of 50 to 100 years and ending in 1975, as determined by isotope ratios of marine organism remains in sediment at the bottom of the sea .. The horizontal line is the average temperature for this 3,OOO-yearperiod. The Little Ice Age and Medieval Climate Optimum were naturally occurring, extended intervals of climate departures from the mean. A value of 0.25 C, which is the change in Sargasso Sea temperature between 1975 and 2006, has been added to the 1975 data in order to provide a 2006 temperature value. Source: [2},page 1

~ Andren, E., Andren, T. and Kunzendorf, H. 2000. Holocene history of the Baltic Sea as a background for assessing records of human impact in the sediments of the Gotland Basin. The Holocene 10: 687-702. The authors analyzed the organic carbon content (more of which indicates conditions conducive to greater primary productivity) and identified and quantified siliceous microfossil assemblages (certain species of which are indicative of higher temperatures) of a sediment core retrieved in 1997 from a point in the Eastern Gotland Basin (5716.9772'N, 20007.1122'E) of the Baltic Sea. This work revealed an increase in organic carbon content that began about 1700 calendar years before present (cal. yr BP) that reached a maximum value about 900-800 cal. yr BP, "pointing to very high primary production at that time"." In addition, they found that the diatom assemblage of this high productivity event consisted of "up to 90% Pseudosolenia calcar-avis, a common marine planktonic tropical and subtropical water species which occurs seasonally in temperate waters", but which they say "cannot be found in the present Baltic Sea". Therefore, we conclude that the medieval warm period in this region - which Andren et al. assign to approximately AD 900-1300 -- was probably much warmer than in the late 20th century.

The Middle Ages were warmer than today (2): Northern Victoria Island, Nunavut, Canada
~ Fortin, M.-C. and Gajewski, K. 2010. Holocene climate change and its effect on lake ecosystem production on Northern Victoria island, Canadian Arctic. Journal of Paleolimnology 43: 219-234. Working with two replicate sediment cores extracted from the central point of Lake Wynniatt Bay 02 on Canada's Northern Victoria Island (72.29N, 109. 87W), the authors developed an 8,000-year history of the area's mean July air temperature, based upon the modem analogue technique and weighted-averaging partial least squares regression, using chironomid species assemblage data. Their graphical results show that late-Holocene temperatures peaked about 1100 years ago in both reconstructions, at values that were 1-3.8 Co warmer than the peak temperature of the current warm period.

Actual Data vs. IPCC Computer Models

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Observed Reality vs. Erroneous Computer Predictions: Scatter-plots of net flux of outgoing longwave radiation, as measured by the satellites of the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment over a 15year period (upper left panel) and as predicted by 11of the computer models relied upon by the UN (all other panels), against anomalies in global mean sea surface temperature over the period. The mismatch between reality and prediction is entirely clear. It is this astonishing graph that provides the final evidence that the UN has absurdly exaggerated the effect not only of C02 but of all greenhouse gases on global mean surface temperature. What it means: If the atmospheric C02 concentration doubles, global temperature will rise not by the 6 OFimagined by the UN's climate panel, but by a harmless 1 OF. Source: [6]Lindzen & Choi (2009).
Note: The above assertion is based upon the analysis on the bottom of page 4 in the above paper [6]. Please note that 10K = 1.8 OF. " ... resulting in ~T of 0.5 OKfor a doubling of C02."

Fudging the Data

" .. By the year 2140, we should see the average Earth temperature finally get to Equilibrium (82F) with current carbon dioxide concentrations (390 ppmv), as shown in the following chart ..." Source{9J, C.Johnson

Nine Full Years' Global Cooling Trend at 0.7 FO(0.4 CO)/ Century

Global montbly temperature anomalies, January 2001 to April 2010 IPCC predicts warming at +2.4, +3, +3.9, +4.7, +5.3 C/century Tbe observed cooling trend is equivalent to .4 C/century 0.7 _-.::~ 0.8

For almost nine years, the trend in global temperatures has been falling. The IPCC's predicted equilibrium warming path (pink region) bears no relation to the global cooling that has been observed in the 21st century to date. Note the very sharp peak in global temperature in early 2010, caused by a strong El Nino Southern Oscillation. Source: [7]

Sea Level Continues to Rise more Slowly than the UN Predicts

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Rate = 3.2 0.4 mmfyr . Sea$onal signals remQv~d

Sea level (anomaly

in millimetres)

is rising at just 1It/century:

The average rise in sea level over the past

10,000 years was 4 feet/century.

predicted

During the 20th century it was 8 inches. As recently as 2001, the fPCC had was cut by

that sea level might rise as much as 3 ft in the 21st century. However, this maximum

more than one-third

to less than 2 feet in the fPCC's 2007 report, with a central estimate of 1ft 5 in. Marner

(2004) says sea level will rise about 8 inches in the 21st century. Mr. Justice Burton, in the UK High Court,
bluntly commented on AI Gore's predicted 20ft sea-level rise as follows: "The Armageddon scenario that he

depicts is not based on any scientific view." A fortiori, mere rodomontade. Source: [7J

James Hansen's prediction

of a 246ft sea-level rise is

Arctic summer sea-ice extent (purple) has increased in each of the past two years, and is very close to the mean for the past decade. Since there has been no statistically-significant "global warming"

since 1995, and since the decline in summer sea-ice extent has occurred only in the past five years, the decline that occurred in 2007 cannot be attributed to "global warming". A paper by NASA in 2008 attributed the 2007 summer sea-ice minimum to unusual poleward winds and currents bringing warm weather up from the tropics. A few weeks after the Arctic sea-ice minimum, there extent of Antarctic sea ice reached a 30-year maximum. The Arctic was in fact 2-3 FO warmer in the 1930s and early 1940s than it is today.

A recent paper suggesting that the Arctic is now warmer than at any time for 2000 years is based on the same defective data, and is by the same authors, as the UN's attempt to abolish the medieval warm period in its 2001 report. In fact, for most of the past 10,000 years the world - and by implication the Arctic - was appreciably warmer than it is today. One of the authors of that report had previously told a fellow-researcher, "We have to abolish the medieval warm period." However, papers by almost 800 scientists from more than 450 institutions in more than 40 countries over more than 20 years establish that the medieval warm period was real, was global, and was warmer than the present. Source: [7] from University of Illinois, 15 September 2009.

Before Hydrocarbon

Use Increase
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1700 1850 1900

Year
Average length of169 glaciers from 1700 to 2000. The principal source of melt energy is solar radiation. Variations in glacier mass and length are primarily due to temperature and precipitation. This melting trend lags the temperature increase by about 20 years, so it predates the 6-fold increase in hydrocarbon use even more than shown in the figure. Hydrocarbon use could not have caused this shortening trend.

Solar Activity and Temperature

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Year
Arctic surface air temperature compared with total solar irradiance as measured by sun spot cycle amplitude, sunspot cycle length, solar equatorial rotation rate, fraction of penumbral spots, and decay rate of the II-year sunspot cycle. Solar irradiance correlates well with Arctic temperature, while hydrocarbon use does not correlate. Source: [2J

[2]

Environmental Effects of Increased of Increased Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide by Robinson et al http://www.oism.orglpproject/s33p36.htm

[3]

Global Warming and Climate Change - The Actual Physics and Calculations by C. Johnson http://mb-soft.com/public3/globaI.html

[4]

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change OPCC) http://www.ipcc.ch/publications and data/publications

and data reports.shtml

[5]

IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007 (AR4) http://www.ipcc.ch/publications and data/ar4/wgllen/ chl0.html

[6]

On the determination of climate feedbacks from ERBE data, Richard S. Lindzen and YongSang Choi, GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 36, L1670 doi:lO.l029/2009GL039628, 2009 http://www.drroyspencer.com/Lindzen-and-Choi-GRL-2009.pdf

[7]

SPPI Monthly C02 Report, April 2010, C. Monckton Editor http://scienceandpublicpolicy .orglimages/stories/papers/originals/c02 pdf C06 Science, vol 2 Number 26, June 2003 http://www .c02science.orglarticlesN 61N26/EDIT. php

report apr 2010.

[8]

[9]

Earth's Atmosphere - Single or Multiple Layers by C. Johnson http://www.c02science.orglarticlesN61N26/EDIT.php

[10]

Ice Core Studies Prove C02 Is Not the Powerful Climate Driver Climate Alarmists Make It Out to Be, CO2 Science, Volume 6, Number 26: 25 June 2003,
http://www.co2science.org!articles!V6!N26!EDIT.php