SOLIDWALLHOUSING:PUSHINGTHEENVELOPE

BY CHRISHOCKNELL

Submittedinpartialfulfilment oftherequirementsforthedegree BSc(Hons)QuantitySurveying LeedsMetropolitanUniversity April2010

Abstract TheUKhascommittedtoreducingcarbondioxide(CO2)emissionsby80%by2050compared to1990levels.UKhousingcurrentlyaccountsfor27%ofallUKemissionsandestimatesstate that 86% of existing housing will still be standing by 2050. Of the 22.19 million homes in England,20.2millionwouldbenefitfromcosteffectiverefurbishmentmeasurestomakethem more energy efficient and therefore reduce their CO2 emissions. However, there are 6.6 millionsolidwalldwellingsthatcannotincorporatecosteffectiveenergyefficiencymeasures. ThesearecategorisedasHardtoTreatdwellings. Theaimofthisdissertationwastoaddressthisproblemandevaluatethespecifiedsolutionof refurbishingthebuildingenvelopeandheatingsysteminordertoascertainwhetheran80% reductioninCO2emissionscanbefeasiblyandcosteffectivelyachievedinsolidwallhousing. Thestudywasbasedontworefurbishmentcasestudiesthatachievedsignificantreductionsin their carbon emissions. It involved a quantitative analysis of the energy consumption of dwellings through the use of the domestic energy model DEMScot. The energy model was utilised to substantiate the claims of the two case studies and to simulate incremental improvementstoinvestigateanoptimumpointofrefurbishment. Theworkbuildsonpreviousreportsandstudiesthatidentifyrefurbishmentasthesolution, but have not overcome the barriers to its implementation. It also considers some of the furtherbarrierstorefurbishments,suchasthecurrentlylimiteduptakerateofrefurbishment measures, the disruption caused to occupants and items other than those included in SAP analyses.Solutionswerespecifiedforeachofthesebarriers. Themainfindingswere;firstly,thecasestudiesareapplicabletootherdwellingsandwiththe utilisation of innovative materials, reductions of up to 70% in CO2 emissions are possible. Secondly, for both dwellings therewas a point where thecost to carbon saving relationship deterioratedandonlyminorcarbonsavingswereachievedforhighcosts.Thirdly,thecostof refurbishment could be reduced by developing a mass market, either by encouraging the occupants that are willing to pay or by targeting homes in fuel poverty. Finally, an amendmentofpolicyandBuildingRegulationscouldincreasethecurrentlylowuptakerateof refurbishmentmeasures,byensuringthatopportunitiestocarryoutworkaremaximisedand thatinefficientappliancesareremovedfromthemarket. Theconclusiondrawnfromthisstudywasthatsolidwallhousingcancontributesignificantly to the 80% reduction target. The evidence suggests that providing home owners accept refurbishment, reductions of up to 53% could be made for minimal costs. However, refurbishmentofsolidwallhousingmustbesupplementedbyothermeanstoachievean80% reductioninCO2emissions. Following the findings, one of the key recommendations was that an appropriate body developsamethodformaximisingvalueinrefurbishment,thereforeensuringthathighcarbon savingsaredeliveredforoptimumcosts.Furthermore,thegovernmentshouldswiftlyamend currentpolicyinordertomaximiserefurbishmentopportunitiesandfocusonencouragingthe public to acceptenergy efficiencyworks. Finally,comprehensive research should becarried out that investigates how and to what extent, solid wall housing can be supplemented by othermeansinordertodevelopanoverallstrategyfordealingwithsolidwalldwellings.
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Acknowledgements I would like to thank the many people who have assisted me during this dissertation and throughoutmystudies.Firstly,thankyoutomydissertationtutorRobertHayesforhistime andguidance.Secondly,Iamextremelygratefulforthesupportandencouragementgivento mebyJudithandSteveHocknellthroughoutmystudies.Finally,IwouldliketothankSandy Cowling for her valuable opinion and Katherine Cowling for her endless encouragement throughoutmytimeatuniversity. IwouldalsoliketoexpressmygratitudetothepeopleatUnitedHousewhoprovidedmewith theresearchdata,andtheindividualsIcontactedthroughouttheresearchthatendeavoured toassistme.
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Contents Abstract i ii iii v vi 1 1 2 5 9 9 9 12 12 19 24 24 26 28 29 31 33

Acknowledgements Contents

Listoftablesandfigures Abbreviations

Chapterone:introduction Problemspecification Literaturereview Methodology

Chaptertwo:theUKhousingstock Climatechange Dwellingemissions

Chapterthree:improvementcasestudies AubertPark MidmoorRoad

Chapterfour:DEMScot,Scotlandsdomesticenergymodel DEMScotconfiguration

DEMScotandSAPoutputsAubertPark

DEMScotandSAPoutputsMidmoorRoad Evaluationofthemodelsoutputs TheEcogenunit

Chapterfive:cost,ValueCarbonandotherlimitations
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Totalcostandvalue

33 34 36 39 40 41 43 43 44 46 46 48 49

ValueCarbonAubertPark ValueCarbonMidmoorRoad Optimumrefurbishment

Thewillingnesstopayandreducingcosts Solidwallinsulation

Occupantdisruptionandoccurringopportunities

ItemsotherthanthoseincludedintheStandardAssessmentProcedure Evaluationofkeybarriers

Chapterseven:conclusionandrecommendations Conclusion

Recommendations Bibliography

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Listoftablesandfigures Table Title 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Page 10 13 20 27 28 28 29 34 35 36 37 Page 16 35 38

AverageSAP,CO2andpercentageofEnglishhousingbyconstructiondate AubertParkimprovementmeasures MidmoorRoadimprovementmeasures

AubertParkbeforerefurbishment,SAPandDEMScotoutputs AubertParkafterrefurbishment,SAPandDEMScotoutputs

MidmoorRoadbeforerefurbishment,SAPandDEMScotoutputs MidmoorRoadafterrefurbishment,SAPandDEMScotoutputs AubertParkrefurbishmentmeasures,ValueCarbon AubertParkincrementalimprovements

MidmoorRoadrefurbishmentmeasures,ValueCarbon MidmoorRoadincrementalimprovements

Figure Title 1 2 3

CrosssectionofSpacethermAerogelinsulationboard AubertParkValueCarbonAnalysisgraph

MidmoorRoadValueCarbonAnalysisgraph

Abbreviations BRE CHP CO2 BuildingResearchEstablishment Combinedheatandpower Carbondioxide DepartmentofCommunitiesandLocalGovernment EnergySavingTrust Hardtotreat IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange KilowattHour Perannum Standardassessmentprocedure

DCLG EST HTT

IPCC kWh Pa SAP

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Chapterone:introduction Problemspecification The UK has committed to reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by 34% by 2020, and by 80%by2050comparedto1990levels(OPSI,2010).UKhousingcurrentlyaccountsfor27%of allUKemissionsanditisestimatedthat86%ofthatexistingin1996willstillbestandingby 2050(Boardman,etal.,2005).Fromthesestatistics,itisclearthattheexistinghousingstock presentsasubstantialobstacletoachievingtheUKGovernmentsemissionreductiontargets. TheEnglishHouseConditionSurvey2007(DCLG,2009)statedthatofthe22.19millionhomes in England, 20.2 million would benefit from improvement measures to make them more energy efficient. However there is a certain sector that is problematic. This is those categorised as Hard to Treat (HTT) dwellings. A HTT dwelling is defined as a dwelling that cannot incorporate token or costeffective energy efficiency measures, such as insulating currently uninsulated or poorly insulated cavity walls or lofts. Four categories of HTT dwellings have been identified by the Building Research Establishment (BRE): solid wall dwellings, dwellings that are off the gas network, dwellings with no loft space and high rise flats.OlderdwellingsaremorelikelytobeHTT,65%oftheHTTstockwasbuiltbefore1945 (BRE,2008a).Dwellingsbuiltbeforethistimearepredominantlyofsolidwallconstructionas cavitywallconstructiononlybecameincreasinglycommonafter1930(EST,2006c). Thereare9.2milliondwellingsinEnglandalonethatcanbeconsideredHTT,comprising43% ofthetotalstock(BRE,2008a).Solidwalldwellingsmakeupthebiggestproportionwith6.6 million dwellings. There is still no strategy for dealing with HTT homes and there is a clear divergenceofopinionregardingtheabilityoftheHTThousingstocktocontributetothe80% emissionreductiontarget.Recentreportssuggestthatgreatlyincreasingdemolitionlevelsof inefficient dwellings and replacing them with efficient new builds would offset the CO2 that would have been generated by these inefficient dwellings (Boardman, et al., 2005). Other reportshavesuggestedthatanationwiderefurbishmentprogrammemustbeimplemented,in theformofbuildingenveloperenovationandinapplicablecases,theinstallationofrenewable energygenerationtechnologies(Immendoerfer,etal.,2008).Theseconflictingsolutionshave resulted in disagreements between various organisations. Because of the restraints of this dissertation,thefocuswillbeonrefurbishmentofthebuildingenvelopeandheatingsystems insolidwalldwellings.Renewableenergygenerationtechnologieswillnotbeincludedasthey
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aresitespecific(Mackay,2009)andwouldrequireanextensivestudyofthegeographyand environmentofthespecifichousingsite,whichisbeyondtheremitofthisdissertation. The key to a dwelling being energy efficient is the thermal performance of the building envelope,coupledwithanefficientenergysource(GreenBuildingPress,2006).Inthecontext ofsolidwallhousing,refurbishmenttoimprovetheenergyefficiencyoftheenvelopewould taketheformofexternalorinternalwallinsulation,insulationtothegroundfloorandloft(if possible), replacement of windows and external doors and draught proofing (EST, 2006c). Thesesolutionswoulddrasticallyimprovetheenergyefficiencyofthedwellingandtherefore significantly reduce its CO2 emissions (EST, 2006c). However, they are not without their drawbacks.Insulatingasolidwallexternally,usingarenderorcladdingsystemisexpensive and alters the dwellings appearance (Immendoerfer, et al., 2008). Alternatively, internal insulation is generally cheaper than external insulation, but disrupts the occupants, reduces internalroomsizes,increasestheriskofthermalbridgesandlosesthermalmassbenefitsfrom thesolidwall(Immendoerfer,etal.,2008).Groundfloorandloftinsulationisonlyfeasiblein certainsolidwalldwellings.Replacementofwindowsand doorsisexpensivesoofferslittle payback to the home owner, and may not be possible in some areas with conservation interests.Draftproofingisgenerallycheapandeffective,butitcanbedifficulttoaccessair leakagepoints(EST,2006c).Furthermore,theestimatedinstallationcostsofthesemeasures can vary considerably, which leads to difficulty when trying to assess the costeffectiveness andfeasibilityofthesemeasures.Ifan80%reductioninCO2emissionsistobeachievedby 2050thesolidwallhousingstockmustbeaddressedandanappropriatesolutionspecified. Theaimofthisdissertationtherefore,istoevaluatetheproposedsolutionofrefurbishingthe building envelope and heating system. It will ascertain whether an 80% reduction in CO2 emissionscanbefeasiblyandcosteffectivelyachievedinsolidwallhousing. Literaturereview A sizable amount of literature has been generated in recent years regarding solid wall dwellings.Theliteraturefocusesonthreemainresearchmethodswhichhaveexaminedthe potentialofsolidwallhousingandthemeritgiventoitspreservation.Theseare:theuseof computer modelling software, case study analyses and consultations with specialists. Literaturecoveringalltheseapproacheswillbeappraisedinthisreview.

Allsourcesexaminethecaseforrefurbishment,butthereisarangeofopinionastothebest solutions.Themajorityofreportsthatrecommendstrategiesforsolidwallhousinghaveused TheEnglishHouseConditionSurvey(DCLG,2009)asadatabase.TheEnglishHouseCondition Surveyisthelargestandmostcomprehensivedatasourcewithregardstothedemographyof theUKhousingstock;itdetailsthequantitiesandconditionofover22milliondwellings.The limitation of this data is that surveys are not conducted for every home in the country; the quantitiesarederivedfromlargesamplesurveys.Asaresult,therewillinevitablybeasmall marginoferrorinthedata. TheprimarysourcethathighlightstheinadequacyofsolidwallhousingisTheEnvironmental ChangeInstitute.Thisisdemonstratedbytheextensivereport;40%House(Boardman,etal., 2005).Thisworkdescribestransformingtheexistinghousingstockasanenormouschallenge intermsofscaleandcost,andstatesthattherearelimitstotheimprovementsabuildingcan incorporate.Asaresult,theproposedstrategytoachieve80%emissionreductionsspecifies demolishing3.2millionoftheworsthousesi.e.solidwalldwellingsandreplacingthemwith efficient new builds. Refurbishment is included in the strategy, but only for newer houses withsuperiorbuildingfabricperformance.ThereportwascarriedoutbytheEnvironmental ChangeInstituteincollaborationwithanumberofuniversitiesandwasfundedbytheTyndall Centre for Climate Change Research. The shortcomings of this report are that it does not calculatetheadditionalCO2emissionsgeneratedbydemolitionandreplacementnewbuilds, andnodetailedanalysisofthesolidwallhousingstocktoacceptrefurbishmentmeasuresis included inthe report. This is essential whenconsidering the tradeoff between demolition andrefurbishment. TheBREreport;ReducingcarbonemissionsfromtheUKhousingstock(Shorrock,etal.,2005) providesacredibleexaminationofthepotentialofsolidwallhousing.Thereportestimates the potential CO2 savings of refurbishment measures and their costeffectiveness by using energy modelling software. It also models future emission scenarios and concludes that insulative measures alone will not achieve the original UK Government target of a 60% reduction. A significant takeup of emerging technologies is also required. The report estimates future uptake rates for refurbishment measures by using historic trends. It concludesthatrefurbishmentmeasureswillrequireanunprecedenteduptakerateinorderto achieve60%.Althoughthisisaveryimportantissue,thereportdoesnotexaminethisfurther. An examination of how to increase uptake rates is essential having established such a
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significantlimitation.Aswithallfutureforecaststhereisinevitablymuchscopefordivergence andthereportacknowledgesthis.Thereportalsolacksconclusivenessbecausehighandlow capitalcostsareusedtorepresentoutrightpurchasecostsandmarginalcosts.Theresultisa largevarianceinwhatisactuallydeemedtobecosteffective Another study using energy modelling software was conducted in the report Thermal Improvement of Existing Dwellings (Clarke, et al., 2005). The report includes an extensive breakdown of the Scottish housing stock and features test studies of improvements to two solidwalldwellings.ThesoftwarewasusedtoestimatethetotalCO2reductionsforaspecific dwellingtypeandwasappliedtotherestofthathousetypeandultimatelytheentireScottish housing stock. The conclusion was that a 50% reduction in CO2 emissions and energy use would be possible. The strength of this work lies in the comprehensive analysis of the dwellingsconstruction,whichleadstoseeminglyrobustresults;providingthatthesoftware usedisaccurate.Thelimitationofthisworkisthattheenergyreductionfiguresstatedmay not necessarily translate to English houses, because of the difference in climate between ScotlandandEngland(MetOffice,2010). Thepreviousreportshavetakenanacademicperspectivewhenevaluatingrefurbishmentof thesolidwallhousingstock.Anadditionalmethodofresearchisbeneficial(Knight,Ruddock, 2008)asitwillprovideamorerobustappraisalofthepotentialofsolidwallhousing.Asan alternative to the theoretical framework used by the previous sources, Evidence on tackling Hardtotreatproperties(Roaf,etal.,2008)isofparticularuseasittacklessolidwallhousingin apracticalmanner.Itincludescasestudies,whichareofsignificantvalue,astheyrepresent actual examples of refurbishment projects as opposed to hypothetical scenarios. The case studiesinthisreportdemonstratethatsubstantialCO2savingsareavailable;however,certain improvementmeasuresareexpensivesothepaybackperiodfortheownercanbesignificant. TheworkwasproducedfortheScottishGovernmentbyHeriotWattUniversityandSISTech Ltd which is a notforprofit research institute. As with Thermal Improvement of Existing DwellingsthelimitationofthisworkisthatitwasmodelledaroundScottishhousingsoenergy consumption and therefore the associated savings may be higher than possible in English dwellings. With the exception of work produced by the Environmental Change Institute, the previous sources have demonstrated reasonable confidence in solid wall housing contributing to
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significant reductions. However, all have fallen short of 80%. The primary problem stated throughoutalltheliteratureisuncertaintyregardingthecosteffectivenessofrefurbishment measures, and subsequently the feasibility of implementing a UK wide refurbishment programme. This is further highlighted by Affordable Warmth in Hard to Heat Homes: Progress report (Pett, 2004). This report is mostly concerned with Fuel Poverty, which is predominantlycausedbyexcessiveheatingcostsbecauseofpoorperformanceofthebuilding fabricinsolidwallhomes(Pett,2004).Thereportconductsaconsultationwithawidevariety of experts and itemises the key barriers to treating solid wall homes and consequently alleviating Fuel Poverty. The most significant barriers are: the cost of solutions, lack of dedicated government funds and the awareness and disruption of homeowners and occupiers. The literature reviewed indicates that for the most part it is possible to decrease CO2 emissionsbyrefurbishingsolidwallhousing.However,themostconsistentlystatedproblems are the costeffectiveness of refurbishment measures and the feasibility of applying these measurestotheentiresolidwallhousingstock.Problemssuchasdisruptiontotheoccupants andthelackofgovernmentfundshavealsobeenspecified,althoughtoalesserextent. It is these problems that have so far dictated the role that solid wall housing can play in reducingCO2emissionsby80%,anditistheseproblemsthatwillultimatelydecidethefateof solidwallhousing.Thisdissertationwillexplorethesehighlightedissuesingreaterdepth.It will also incorporate consideration of some new and generally untested technologies that couldofferagreatsteptowardthe80%target.Itmustbenotedthatthisdissertationwillnot engageinthedemolitionversusrefurbishmentdebate;itwillaimtobuildonpreviousreports andstudiesthatidentifyrefurbishmentasthesolution,buthavenotovercomethebarriersto itsimplementation.Itwillattempttosurmountthecurrentbarriersofhighexpenseforlittle carbonsaving,andwillconsidersolutionstoincreasingtheuptakeofrefurbishmentmeasures, inordertodeterminewhatisrequiredtoachieve80%emissionreductionssotoanswerthe question;whatrolecansolidwallhousingfeasiblyplayinreducingCO2emissionsby80%? Methodology This dissertation will aim to answer the question, What role can solid wall housing feasibly playinreducingCO2emissionsby80%?Thisquestionhasbeenaddressedbydrawingfrom the theoretical frameworks of Quantity Surveying and Building Surveying. It involved a
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quantitative analysis of the energy consumption of dwellings, i.e. how refurbishment measureswouldaffecttheenergyefficiencyofdwellingsandhowthevalueofthesemeasures couldbeimprovedbyloweringcosts.Theanswertothisquestionwasinvestigatedthrougha numberofresearchmethods.Modellingwasemployedbyusinganenergymodelinorderto substantiate the claims of existing case studies, and to simulate the different contributions thatsolidwallhousingcouldmaketotheGovernmentsreductiontargets.Therewasalsoa strong element of problem solving as it was necessary to consider systematically the main barrierstoimplementingrefurbishmentofsolidwallhousingandspecifysolutionsbasedon the simulation outputs and existing secondary research in the form of academic reports, surveysandtechnicalliterature. The research starts with chapter two: the UK housing stock. This involves investigating the amountofCO2emissionsthatHTThousingcurrentlycontributesandthereductionsthatcould be achieved by the improvement measures currently considered to be costeffective. This provides a basis of comparison which is required to place solid wall housing in context with therestofthehousingstock. Chapterthree:improvementcasestudies,detailstherefurbishmentcasestudiesonwhichthe researchisbased.Thecasestudymethodisparticularlysuitedwhentestingauniquecaseor concept,soisappropriateinthiscircumstance(Yin,2003).Allthemeasuresthatwereapplied intherefurbishmentswereexaminedindividuallyinordertodeterminehowreplicablethey aretootherdwellingsofthattype.Additionally,underlyingassumptionswerespecifiedand justified. The case studies used were secondary data. The use of secondary data was appropriate, as it provided a detailed indepth analysis of the problem (Naoum, 2009). Furthermore, the data was generated and quality controlled by reliable sources; it would makesensetoutilisethisdata(Baxter,etal.,2006). The weakness of case study based research is that the results of such investigations will to some extent always be treated with a degree of circumspection because they rely on data fromasinglecase.Itmaybequestionablehowtheycanbegeneralisedtoothercases(Knight, Ruddock, 2008). Consequently the relationships demonstrated can only be discussed intellectually,asopposedtostatisticallywhenthesampleislarge(Naoum,2009).However,in ordertolimitthedegreeofcircumspectionandthereforepromoteagoodtheoreticalstarting point i.e. if solid wall housing can effectively be refurbished to achieve CO2 reductions, a
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theory can be corroborated by repeatedly testing it, and finding that it is valid for a large number of cases (Knight, Ruddock, 2008). Clearly, repeatedly renovating dwellings to establish whether they can be effectively refurbished would not be practical or financially viable. Consequently a legitimate alternative is to use simulation of a case, or concept to validatetheoreticalpredictions,whereexperimentationonthesystemunderstudywouldbe prohibitivelyexpensive(Fellows,Liu,2003). Themodelchosentosimulateandconfirmtheresultsoftherefurbishmentswasthedomestic energy model DEMScot which is introduced in chapter four DEMScot: Scotlands domestic energy model. The DEMScot model substantiates the assertion that the refurbishment measures achieved the stated reductions, which achieves objective evaluation of the data (Fellows,Liu,2003).Furthermore,usingDEMScottosimulatetherefurbishmentsprovidedan opportunitytoverifythemodelsoutputswithreality(Fellows,Liu,2003).Thiswasessential to provide confidence in the model. This chapter consists of a critique of the BREDEM methodology and details the information and parameters that were applied to the model. TheCO2reductionsstatedbytheDEMScotmodelarealsopresentedincomparisonwiththe originalstatedreductionsinordertoestablishthedifferencesthatoccur. Thecostofrefurbishingdwellingswasthenconsideredinchapterfive;cost,ValueCarbonand otherlimitations.TheDEMScotmodelwasalsoutilisedasatooltoinvestigatetheconceptof diminishing returns and an optimum level of refurbishment. This investigation was experimental and quantitative in nature. An experiment is a situation in which an independentvariableiscarefullymanipulatedbytheinvestigatorunderknown,tightlydefined and controlled conditions, with respect to a control point (Baxter, et al., 2006). The refurbishmentmeasuresweretheindependentvariableinthisscenarioandtheCO2emissions werethedependentvariable.Thecontrolpointwasthedwellingbeforerefurbishment.This methodwasthemostsuitableasaquantitativeexperimentistheonlyresearchdesignwhich caninprinciple,yieldcausalrelationships(Baxter,etal.,2006).Additionalconsiderationwas also given to reducing costs, as cost is seen as one of the most substantial barriers to the implementation of refurbishment programmes. This chapter also targets some of the additional barriers associated with refurbishment. Solutions to these barriers were sought from existing secondary research such as academic reports and surveys. Consideration of furtherbarrierswasrequiredastherearefactorsotherthancostandtechnicalitythataffects thefeasibilityofsolidwallhousingtocontributetothe80%emissionreductiontarget.
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Followingthis,thefinalchapter:conclusionbeginswithareflectionoftheevidencepresented in the previous chapters. The individual objectives of each chapter were drawn upon to provide an overall conclusion regarding the role that solid wall housing can play in the CO2 emission reduction target for 2050. The study was then completed by a collection of recommendationsthatweredeemedtobebeneficialtotheroleofsolidwallhousing.
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Chaptertwo:theUKhousingstock Climatechange In2004,theUKGovernmentschiefscientificadvisorSirDavidKingstatedthatclimatechange is the most severe problem the world faces today (King, 2004). International scientific consensusstatesthatchangestotheglobalclimatearetakingplaceprimarilybecauseofthe increasing levels of anthropogenic greenhouse gases (IPCC, 2001). Greenhouse gases are producedbyburningfossilsfuelstoproduceenergy,thesinglemostabundantgreenhousegas being CO2 (Sturges, 2006). Greenhouse gases present in the earths atmosphere absorb outgoinginfraredradiationandcauseadditionalheattoberetainedintheatmosphere.This greenhousepropertyoftheatmospherecausesthesurfaceoftheearthtobewarmerthanit would otherwise be and causes a change in the global climate (IPCC, 2001). In 2007, total energy use by the UK amounted to 229.4 million tonnes of oil equivalent. Of this energy, 93.3%wasderivedfromfossilfuels(OfficeofNationalStatistics,2010). In order to mitigate the effects of climate change, the UK Climate Change Bill aims to have reducedtotalCO2emissionsby80%in2050.Currentlytherehasnotbeenadefinitivetarget allocated specifically to domestic energy; only an approximate figure of a 15% reduction in CO2emissionsby2020forthetotalstockhasbeensuggested(DirectGov,2010).However,as housingcurrentlyaccountsfor27%ofallUKemissions,asignificantcontributiontotheoverall 80%targetmustbemadebyimprovingtheenergyperformanceofhousing. Dwellingemissions The Governments Standard Assessment Procedure (SAP) is the tool used to monitor the energy efficiency of homes. It is based on a homes energy costs per m2 of floor area for standard occupancy of a dwelling and a standard heating regime. It does not incorporate geographical location; this allows buildings to be compared with others across the UK. The energycoststakeintoaccountthecostsofspaceandwaterheating,ventilationandlighting, lesscostsavingsfromenergygenerationtechnologies.Theratingisexpressedonascaleof1 100 and is presented in a banding system of G to A for Energy Performance Ratings. A dwellingwitharatingof1(bandG)haspoorenergyefficiencyandthereforehighcostsanda dwellingwitharatingof100(bandA)representszeronetenergycostperyear.

Energyperformanceisstronglyrelatedtotheageofadwellingbecauseofthedevelopmentof theBuildingRegulations(DCLG,2010).Approximately22%ofthecurrenthousingstockwas builtpre1919;thesedwellingshaveanaverageSAPratingof40andemit9.0tonnesofCO2 a year.Thiscanbecomparedwithpost1990homeswhichhaveanaverageSAPratingof65 andemit4.5tonnesofCO2ayear,asdemonstratedintable1.

%of %of TotalCO2 TotalCO2 housing housing emissionsforthe emissionsfor agethatis stock wholetenure thewhole HTT (million tenure(%) tonnes/pa) Pre1919 40.4 9 43 29% 22% 89% 19191944 45.5 7.2 27.8 19% 17% 47% 19451964 49.5 6.2 26.9 18% 20% 26% 19651980 52.4 5.7 27.3 19% 22% 27% 19811990 56.6 5.1 9.5 7% 9% 24% Post1990 64.7 4.5 11.3 8% 11% 19% Alltenures 49.8 6.6 145.8 100% 100% 43% Table1:AverageSAP,CO2andpercentageofEnglishhousingbyconstructiondate(DCLG,2009)(BRE,2008b)

Average SAP

AverageCO2 perdwelling (tonnes/pa)

ItisolderhousingwhichismostlikelytobeHTT.Ofthe9.2(43%oftotalstock)millionHTT homes in England, 5.91 million (65%) were built pre 1945 and a further 2.11 million (22%) were built between 1945 and 1975 (BRE, 2008a). Solid wall dwellings make up the biggest proportionwith6.6milliondwellings(31%ofthetotalstockand72%oftheHTTstock).Off the gas network dwellings make up the next biggest proportion with 2.8 million dwellings (13%ofthetotalstockand30%oftheHTTstock).Therearealsoapproximately1.8million (8% of the total stock and 19% of the HTT stock) dwellings that have more than one HTT characteristicsocanbeconsideredparticularlyproblematic(BRE,2008a).Dwellingsofsolid wallconstructionsufferfromhighfabricheatlosswhichleadstohighenergyconsumption. Ithasbeenestablishedthat20.2millionhomes(91%ofthetotalstock)inEnglandcouldhave theiremissionsreducedcosteffectivelybyrefurbishmentmeasures.Costeffectivemeasures alonewouldbenefit81%ofHTThousingandwouldleave1.7millionHTTdwellingsunableto receiveanycosteffectivereductions(BRE,2008a).Measuresthatareconsideredtobecost effective are; installation or upgrade of loft insulation, installation of cavity wall insulation, installation or upgrade of hot water cylinder insulation, upgrading central heating controls, upgradingtoaclassAcondensingboiler,upgradingstorageradiators,installationofhotwater cylinderthermostatsandreplacementofwarmairunitswheretheoriginalunitsarepre1998 (DCLG,2009).
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Thegreatestscopeforimprovementishousingbuiltbetween1919and1980.Thisisbecause ofthehighestnumbersofunfilledcavitywallsandinwhichloftinsulationtopupsandheating control upgrades still have high potential. The least scope for improvement is in the most recently built homes which already include more efficient measures in their design and constructionsoalreadyoperateatahigherlevelofperformance.HTThomes(predominantly pre1919)showrelativelymodestimprovementpotentialbecauseofthedifficultyofapplying costeffective measures. As these dwellings have very high CO2 emissions to begin with, reductions of 1.6 tonnes/year; from 9.0 to 7.4 tonnes/year are possible on average (DCLG, 2009). However, a HTT dwelling emitting 7.4 tonnes/year post refurbishment is still unacceptablegiventhatpost1990dwellingscurrentlyemit4.5tonnes/year. Ifallthecosteffectiveimprovementmeasuresdescribedpreviouslywerefullyimplemented, CO2 emissions would fall on average by 1.5 tonnes/year for every home (DCLG, 2009). This would result in an estimated total saving of 33 million tonnes of CO2; 22% of total English housing stock emissions (DCLG, 2009). The approximate cost of carrying out these improvementsis30billion(2009prices)whichequatestoanaverageexpenditureof1,500 foreachofthe20.2millionhomesthatwouldbenefit(DCLG,2009).Althougha22%reduction in emissions from housing is a considerable step towards the total overall UK reduction of 80%, it is insufficient. Reductions which are not made in housing will have to be made elsewhereinthetransport,industry,agricultureandservicesectors.Ifan80%reductionfrom thehousingsectoristobeachieved,measuresbeyondthosecurrentlyconsideredtobecost effectivemustbeimplemented.
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Chapterthree:improvementcasestudies Costeffective improvement measures alone will only achieve a 22% CO2 reduction; consequently refurbishment measures that achieve higher reductions are required. HTT dwellingsconstitute43%ofthetotalhousingstockandareresponsibleforemittingoverhalf ofUKdomesticemissions(BRE,2008b).Inordertoestablishwhatemissionreductionscanbe achievedbyrefurbishmentofthesolidwallstockandtheassociatedcost,tworefurbishment casestudieshavebeenselectedforanalysis.Theobjectiveofthischapteristoconsidereach of the refurbishment measures individually and evaluate how replicable they are to other dwellings.Anyassumptionsthathavebeenmadewillalsobeidentifiedandjustified.Both projects have utilised similar, relatively innovative materials and equipment to achieve substantialsavings. AubertPark The first solid wall refurbishment is 70a Aubert Park, Islington, London. This dwelling is a Victorian ground floor terrace flat with 13" and 9" solid brick external walls, single glazed timbersashwindowsandafloorareaof47m2.Thepropertyisnotinaconservationareabut wasnotsuitableforexternalinsulationorreplacementdoubleglazedwindows.Theproject participantswereUnitedHouseandBRE.UnitedhousecarriedouttheworksandBREwere utilisedtoindependentlyassesstheCO2reductionresultsusingSAP. BREandUnitedHousedifferintheirconclusionofthetotalCO2savingsforthisrefurbishment. ThedifferenceinCO2reductionsisbecauseofalackoftestdataforthemicroCombinedHeat and Power (CHP) unit that was newly installed, consequently BRE based their modelling aroundacondensingboilerinstead.AsaresultBREcalculatedthatCO2 reductionswere60% andUnitedHousecalculatedthattheywere70%.Inordertomaintainabsoluteneutralitythe datageneratedbyBRE,theindependentparticipantwouldpreferablybeused.However,the BRE data will not used for three reasons. Firstly, considerably robust results by the Carbon Trust relating to micro CHP test data suggests that United Houses calculations are very realistic,thisisdiscussedindepthlater.Secondly,theopportunitytoinvestigateinnovative technologyshouldbemaximisedinordertobreaknewground.Itwouldbeunproductiveto repeat conventional practices and reiterate what has already been established by past refurbishments. Thirdly, the differences between United House and BRE affect various

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calculations so results from both sources cannot be pooled, analysis is only possible if data fromonesourceisused.Consequently,theUnitedHousedatawillbeused. There was no CO2 reduction target for this refurbishment. Instead, a contractorled Value Engineeringapproachwastaken,whichfocusedonmaximisingthecarbonsavingforevery spent;thismethodhasbeengiventhenameValueCarbon.Thisinvolvedanextensivesurvey, detailed analysis of the data and careful selection of the improvement measures. Value Carbon is a suitable unit of measurement because it includes cost; therefore an element of value is incorporated. Cost is a substantial barrier to improvement measures and therefore mustbeconsidered(Pett,2004);focusingonCO2reductionsalonewouldnotprovidethis.No renewabletechnologieswereused,andtheprojectalsofeaturedsomeinnovativematerials andequipmentthatwereusedforthefirsttimeintheUK.Theimprovementmeasuresare displayedintable2.
Measures 1)Lowenergylighting 2)Draughtproofing 3)MicroCHPgasboiler 4)Doubleglazing(vacuum) 5)Insulateexternalwalls 6)Insulatefloors 7)MechanicalVentilationwithHeatRecovery(MVHR) 8)Rainwaterharvesting 9)Insulatethermalbridges
Table2:AubertParkimprovementmeasures

Eachofthemeasureslistedintable2willnowbeexpandeduponandanalysedusingtechnical literature. The aim of this is to critically assess how replicable these measures are and consider any irregularities in this project that would limit the ability of applying these measurestootherdwellings. 1)Lowenergylighting Beforerefurbishment:incandescentthroughout. Afterrefurbishment:CFLlowenergylightinginstalledthroughout.

CFL bulbs can be usedin almost all light fittings and significant savings can bemade quickly (Boardman,2007).Thisimprovementmeasureisapplicabletoalldwellings.
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2)Draughtproofing Beforerefurbishment:airtightnessof9.08m3/hr/m2. Afterrefurbishment:designairtightnessof5.0m3/hr/m2.

Fiveindividualairtightnesstestswerecarriedouttoquantifyindividualleakagepathsaround the flat. Cracks and gaps around service penetrations, windows and doors and floors were sealed. Part L1A 2006 requires that new builds have a Maximum Air Permeability of < 10 m3/hr/m2 and best practice is considered to be 3 m3/hr/m2 (EST, 2005). Existing dwellings havenorequirementbutcanreachupto25m3/hr/m2(EST,2005). Thecomprehensivedraughtproofingmeasurescarriedoutonthisflatwereveryeffective;a recent study showed that of 100 new dwellings tested for air tightness; only 3 achieved 5m3/hr/m2(EST,2005).Thelevelofairtightnesswillobviouslyvaryfromdwellingtodwelling; however,thebenefitsofdraughtproofingaresignificantacrosstoalldwellings.Energyloss due to ventilation accounts for approximately one fifth of space heating demand in older dwellings and approximately one third of space heating demand in newer well insulated dwellings(EST,2006a);agreaterproportionofenergylossoccursfromairleakageasinsulation increases (Jennings, 2006). Indicative average costs and associated CO2 savings for draught proofingtoa3bedroomsemidetacheddwellingwerestatedtobe100fora43kgCO2saving (DCLG,2006).Basedonthedatathatstatesveryfewdwellingsachievethebestpracticelevel of air tightness, and therefore have scope for significant improvement, this improvement measurewillbeconsideredtobeaseffectiveandapplicableonotherdwellings. 3)MicroCHPgasboiler Before refurbishment: Ideal Sprint F rated combination boiler (65% efficiency), programmerandroomthermostat,roomsealedfannedflue. Afterrefurbishment:BaxiEcogenmicroCHP(82%efficiency).

A micro CHP system produces both heat and electricity. This system is heat led so only produceselectricitywhentheheatingsystemisinoperation.Thiswasthefirstunittobeused commerciallyintheUKandasaresulttestdatawasnotavailableatthetimeofassessment. ThisresultedintwodifferentsetsofresultsbeingproducedbyBREandUnitedHouse.Data determining the efficiency of the Ecogen is discussed further in chapter four: DEMScot,
14

Scotlands domestic energy model. The Ecogen is wall hung and providing the system is adequatelysizedforthedwellingsheatingdemands,couldbesuccessfullyintegratedintoall dwellings(Baxi,2010a). 4)Doubleglazing(vacuum) Beforerefurbishment:singleglazedsashwindows,Uvalue4.91W/m2K Afterrefurbishment:vacuumglazingtofrontfacadeonly,averageglazingUvalue3.49 W/m2K(Uvalue1.19W/m2Kforwindowswithvacuumglazing,includingframe) Pilkington Energikare Legacy vacuum glazing is the first example of vacuum glazing that is commerciallyavailableintheUK.Theglazingwasinstalledinthetwolivingroomwindowsto thefrontofthedwelling.Sashwindowsusuallycannotaccommodatedoubleglazedunitsas the rebatesin the glazing bars are not deepenough (Taylor, 1996). Pilkington Energikare is intendedforthisapplicationasthethermalperformancecanbeimprovedwhilstmaintaining a buildings historic faade. Replacement units like these may only be unacceptable in the exceptionalcircumstanceofthebuildingbeinglisted(Taylor,1996).Itisestimatedthatthere are300,000residentialbuildingslistedasarchitecturallyimportant(Boardman,etal.,2005). Therefore, unless the dwelling is listed this measure will be applicable to all dwellings. The box frame was retained and new sashes were installed to hold the glazing. Although BRE statestheoldsashescouldhavebeenretainednoallowancewillbemadetoadjustthecost. 5)Insulateexternalwalls Before refurbishment: solid brick, 225mm and 330mm thicknesses plus internal partitionstounheatedbasement/corridor,averageUvalue1.19W/m2K After refurbishment: Spacetherm Aerogel, 37mm to internal surfaces and Sempatap flexible thermal lining magic wall paper to communal basement/corridor partition, averageUvalue0.33W/m2K

15

Figure1:CrosssectionofSpacethermAerogelinsulationboard(Balson,2009)

Lengths of 25mm battens were fixed to the internal surfaces of all exposed walls and SpacethermAerogelinsulationboardwiththreelayersofmattingwasfixedtothebattens,a 25mmairgapwasleftbetweenbattenruns;figure1.ThiswasthefirstprojectintheUKto use this material. Spacetherm is particularly appropriate for dwellings of smaller floor size wherethereductionofinternalspacemustbeminimal.Otherinsulationtypesmayrequirea layerupto120mmthicktoachievethesamethermalperformance,thereforemakinginternal wall insulation impractical because of the loss of internal space (EST, 2006c). Internal wall insulationwouldnotbeapplicabletodwellingswherethedisruptiontooccupantsandfixtures would be too great, excessive thermal bridging would be difficult to avoid and in the exceptionalinstancethattheinteriorofthebuildingisprotectedunderalistedbuildingorder (EST, 2006c). However, these exemptions are rare and theoretically internal wall insulation couldbeappliedtothevastmajorityofdwellings(BRE,2008b).Althoughpracticallypossible in all dwellings, in reality there are other factors that limit its applicability. Further consideration to the number of applicable dwellings will be discussed in chapter five Cost, ValueCarbonandotherlimitations.BREstatesthatbecauseofalackofexperienceincutting this material, wastage and therefore cost was high, however no attempt will be made to adjustthecostforwastage,becausethequantityisnotknown.
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6)Insulatefloors Beforerefurbishment:suspendedtimberfloor,Uvalue0.72W/m2Kandconcretefloor inkitchenextension,Uvalue0.70W/m2K After refurbishment: fully insulated timber floor, Uvalue 0.45 W/m2K and no work donetoconcretefloor. Heatlossandairleakagewerereducedbysealingoffthecellarbelowthetimberfloorwhich was too small to be used as a living space. The floor boards were removed and 100mm of plaster was hacked off from the bases of the walls. A breathable airtight barrier was laid across and between the joists and lapped up the base of the walls, the voids between the joistswerethenfilledwithWarmcellfibreinsulationandthefloorboardswerereplaced.The basesofthewallswerereplasteredwiththeairtightbarriersealedintotheplaster,thenew skirtingboardswerethenlaidandgapssealed. BREcommentedthatthisimprovementmeasurewastimeconsuminganditwouldalsonotbe possibletocarryoutwhiletherewereoccupantspresentinthehousebecauseofhealthand safety reasons relating to the fibre insulation. If the cellar had allowed freer access, an alternativesolutionsuggestedbytheBREwouldbetoleavethefloorboardsintact,boardthe underside of the joists, and inject spray foam insulation between the joists. This method wouldachievecomparableairtightnesswithlessdisruption,andaconsistentfillbetweenthe joists would offer significantly higher thermal performance. If access from above were the onlyoption,analternativethatwouldbepossiblewiththeoccupantspresentwouldbetolift thefloorboards,drapeasupportnettingoverthejoistsandlayboardorrollinsulationontop ofthenetting(EST,2006c).Althoughtheairtightnesswouldbeinferior,draughtsfromthe floorboardscouldbereducedbyfixinglargeareaboardsoverthetoporreplacingthemwith moistureresistantchipboardwithgluedtongueandgroovedjoints.Asdemonstratedbythe above,suspendedtimberfloorscanbeimprovedinpracticallyallcircumstances(EST,2006c);

therefore improvement of the floors is deemed applicable in the vast majority of dwellings. 7)MechanicalHeatRecoveryVentilation(MVHR) Beforerefurbishment:twoextractfans
17

Afterrefurbishment:VentAxiaHRE350MVHRsystem(89%efficiency)

Thedesignairtightnessof5.0m3/hr/m2meantthatmechanicalventilationcouldprovideCO2 savings.TheMVHRunitwasinstalledinthekitchen,andaboxedinsectionwasaddedtothe kitchen and living room, a lowered ceiling was installed in the hallway to distribute the ductworkthroughthedwelling.BREstatedthatthesignificantamountoflabourinvolvedin installingtheunitandtheassociatedductworkmeantthatitwouldbeunfeasibletocarryout theworkwiththetenantinplace.Therewerealsoadditionalairleakagepathscreatedbythe installationoftheductworkinthekitchenthatrequiredsealing.Thismeasurewouldonlybe applicabletodwellingswhereamajorrefurbishmenttakesplacebecausethecostsarehigh andanexceptionalrateofairtightnessmustbereachedinorderforMVHRtoprovidecarbon savings(EST,2006a). 8)Rainwaterharvesting Beforerefurbishment:standardtaps,bathandWC. After refurbishment: rainwater harvesting, Twyford Galorie Flushwise 4/2.6 litre dual flushWC,Tapmagicinsertsfortaps,bathunchanged. Thewatersavingmeasuresonthisrefurbishmentwereregardedasgivingnocarbonsaving. However, all the measures installed resulted in a 24% saving in water use. Although water efficiency is a major goal in refurbishment as approximately 23% of CO2 emissions are from hotwateruse(EST,2010b),onlythetapinsertswouldreducetheconsumptionofhotwater. Consequently because of the minor reduction in CO2, this measure will not be considered whenapplyingmeasurestootherdwellings. 9)Insulatethermalbridges Before refurbishment: full assessment not undertaken, assumed Yvalue of 0.15 W/m2K. Afterrefurbishment:fullassessmentnotundertaken,retainedYvalueof0.15W/m2K.

The project scope did not allow for a detailed technical assessment of thermal bridging. Withoutdedicatedmodelling,theaffectonthermalbridgingbyimprovementmeasurescould notbeaccuratelyassessed.ConsequentlynocreditcouldbegainedinSAPasaYvalueof0.15
18

W/m2Kwasusedinbothbeforeandaftermodels.However,effortwasstillmadetoreduce bridging by targeting the party walls and bedroom windows reveals. A disadvantage of internal wall insulation is that at the junction of the party wall with the external wall, cold spotscanoccur.Internalinsulationwasreturnedalongthepartywallfromitsintersection with the external wall, therefore reducing the temperature gradient. Voids behind the window reveals were filled with mineral wool. Because of the complex nature and the detaileddatarequiredtoconductthermalbridgemodelling(Abdullatiff,2003),therewillbe noreductionsmadeintheYvaluewhenmodellingotherdwellings.Consequentlythecostof carryingoutthisworkwillnotbeincludedinotherrefurbishments. MidmoorRoad Thesecondsolidwallrefurbishmentthatachievedsubstantialsavingswas46MidmoorRoad, Balham,London.ThedwellingisaVictorian3bedroommidterracewith225mmsolidbrick walls.Itisnotinaconservationareaandhasafloorareaof99m2.Theprojectwascarried out by Family Mosaic housing association. It must be noted that SAP calculations for the dwelling before the refurbishment were not available, only SAP data was available for the dwellingaftertherefurbishment.Consequently,aSAPassessmentwascarriedoutusingthe SAPmanual(BRE,2009)andthedatathatwasavailable.Uvaluesbeforerefurbishmentfor someofthebuildingelementshavebeenassumedbasedontechnicalliterature(BRE,2001). The default ventilation rates and electrical use have been taken from the SAP manual (BRE, 2009) and the English Building Regulations (DCLG, 2010). Furthermore, an assumption has alsobeenmadeforthespecificationoftheheatingsystembeforerefurbishment. Thisisoneoftheweaknessesinstudy;theprerefurbishmentdataforMidmoorRoadshould to some extent, be treated as indicative because of the assumptions that had to be made. However,FamilyMosaicachieveda63%reductioninCO2emissionsfromarefurbishmentof anidenticaldwellingonthesameroadthefollowingmonth.Theonlydifferencebetweenthe twodwellingswasthat46Midmoorachievedalessairtightenvelope.Consequently,theCO2 savingswerelowerin46MidmoorRoadbecauseofahigherspaceheatingrequirement(EST 2006a). This dwelling is unique in that it was converted into two 1 bedroom flats several years ago; Family Mosaic converted the dwelling back to a 3 bedroom terrace in 2009. Consequently
19

therewereworksotherthantheenergyefficiencymeasuresinvolvedintheproject,suchas minordemolitionandconstructionofpartitions,andrejoiningofservices.Itmustbenoted thattheincorporationofotherworkswouldmostlikelyresultinareductioninthecostofthe energy efficiency measures (BRE, 2001). The measures aimed at improving the energy efficiencyofthedwellingaredisplayedintable3:
Measures 1)Lowenergylighting 2)Draughtproofing 3)Loftinsulation 4)MicroCHP 5)Insulateexternalwalls 6)Insulatetimberfloor 7)Insulateconcretefloor 8)MechanicalVentilationwithHeatRecovery(MVHR)
Table3:MidmoorRoadimprovementmeasures

Each of the measures listed in table 3 will be expanded upon and analysed using technical literaturetocriticallyassesshowreplicablethesemeasuresareandanyassumptionswillbe detailedandjustified. 1)Lowenergylighting Beforerefurbishment:incandescentthroughout. Afterrefurbishment:CFLlowenergylightinginstalledthroughout.

CFL bulbs can be usedin almost all light fittings and significant savings can bemade quickly (Boardman,2007).Thisimprovementmeasureisapplicabletoalldwellings. 2)Draughtproofing Beforerefurbishment:airtightnessunknown. Afterrefurbishment:airtightnessof7.5m3/hr/m2.

The draught proofing measurescarried out achieved a good level of air tightness. However the degree of improvement in not known as the air tightness before refurbishment is unknown.Theairchangerateinthisdwellingishigherthancouldhavebeenachievedastwo chimneys and open flues were left vented after refurbishment. The redundant fire places werebrickedupandthenvented;theseventscontributesignificantlytotheairchangesper
20

hour figure. The exact reason why these vents were left unsealed is unknown. However, becausethemoisturelevelsinsealedchimneysincreaserapidly,itisthereforerecommended thatventilationremainsinredundantflues(Taylor,2009).Thismayhavebeentherationale when refurbishing this dwelling, although as a result, the space heating requirement was increased because of these remaining ventilation points. As with Aubert Park, this improvementmeasurewillbeconsideredtobeaseffectivetootherdwellings. 3)Loftinsulation Beforerefurbishment:50mminsulation,Uvalue0.22W/m2Kassumed Afterrefurbishment:270mminsulation,Uvalue0.14W/m2K.

Sheetsof100mminsulationwerelaidbetweenjoistsandablanketof170mmwaslaidabove joists.Thethicknessofinsulationbeforerefurbishmentisunknown,althoughthepriceinthe bill of quantities is for 270mm. The assumption of 50mm has been made for two reasons. Firstly,housesownedbyhousingassociationssuchasFamilyMosaicaremuchmorelikelyto have costeffective measures such as loft insulation utilised (DCLG, 2009); it would be very rareforahousingassociationtoletpropertieswithnoinsulationintheloft.Secondly,theU valueofaloftwithnoinsulationis1.14W/m2K(BRE,2001);ifthisUvaluewereincludedin themodel,apreandpostrefurbishmentcomparisonwouldshowsignificantimprovementin energy consumption and, this would skew the actual CO2 savings resulting from the refurbishment.Thismeasurewouldbeapplicabletomostotherdwellingsas46%ofallmid terraces,includingbothHTTandnonHTTwouldbenefitfromadditionalloftinsulation(DCLG, 2009). Furthermore, only 6% of all solid wall houses have no loft to insulate (BRE, 2008b). Consequentlythemeasurewillbedeemedapplicabletothemajorityofotherdwellings. 4)MicroCHPgasboiler Beforerefurbishment:standardcombinationboiler(70%efficiency),assumed. Afterrefurbishment:BaxiEcogenmicroCHP(82%efficiency),assumed.

A full replacement of the hot and cold water system was carried out on this dwelling. Although the boiler present before refurbishment is unknown; an assumption of 70% efficiency has been made based on the base case for solid wall dwellings (EST, 2006c). A
21

conventional gas boiler (87.3% efficiency) with hot water storage was specified for the refurbishment as a solar panel was installed on the roof of the dwelling. As outlined previously;renewableenergygenerationtechnologyisbeyondtheremitofthisdissertation. This presents a difficult scenario as the specification of the heating system may be quite differentwithoutthesolarpanelbeingincluded.Giventhatanentireboilerreplacementwas required,anassumptionhasbeenmadethatwithoutthesolarpanelinthespecification,the mostlikelyreplacementwouldhavebeenamicroCHP.Thisassumptionhasbeenmadebased on the current refurbishment project of 84 Midmoor Road where Family Mosaic have specifiedaBaxiEcogenmicroCHP.TheEcogenunitwasnotcommerciallyavailablewhenthis refurbishment originally took place (Baxi, 2010b), Family Mosaic suggest this may be the futurepreferencefortheirrefurbishments.TheEcogencouldbeintegratedintoalldwellings (Baxi,2010a). 5)Insulateexternalwalls Beforerefurbishment:225mmsolidbrick,Uvalue2.1W/m2K After refurbishment: Kingspan Kooltherm K17 dry lining board 32.5mm, Uvalue 0.55 W/m2K BoardsofKingspanKoolthermwerefixedtointernalsurfacesofexposedwallsandchimney breasts. Kooltherm, like Spacetherm, minimises internal space intrusion due to its minimal thickness. Further consideration to the number of applicable dwellings will be discussed in chapterfive:cost,Valuecarbonandotherlimitations. 6&7)Insulatefloors Before refurbishment: suspended timber floor; Uvalue 0.72 W/m2K, and concrete floorinkitchenextension;Uvalue0.70W/m2K After refurbishment: fully insulated timber floor; Uvalue 0.20 W/m2K, new concrete slablaidoninsulation;Uvalue0.24W/m2K. Floorboardswereremovedandnettingwasdrapedoverthejoists.NewRockwoolinsulation waslaidontopofthenettingandnewchipboardflooringwaslaid.Theconcretefloorinthe kitchenextension was completely broken out, a layer of insulation was then laidand a new slabwaspoured.AswithAubertParkthesuspendedtimberfloorimprovementisconsidered
22

tobeapplicabletootherdwellings.However,theremovaloftheconcreteslabwouldonlybe possible in dwellings with an extension and cellar. Moreover, it is a considerably disruptive processandwouldmostlikelynotbepossibleiftheoccupantswerepresent(EST,2010b). 7)MVHR Beforerefurbishment:naturalventilation Afterrefurbishment:VentAxiaMVHRsystem(86%efficiency)

The afterrefurbishment air tightness of 7.5 m3/hr/m2 meant that mechanical ventilation wouldmostlikelynotprovideCO2savings(EST,2006a).SpecifyingMVHRwasapoordecision by the project team. This measure would only be applicable to dwellings where a major refurbishmenttakesplacebecausethecostsarehighandanexceptionalrateofairtightness mustbereachedinorderforMVHRtoprovidecarbonsavings(EST,2006a). Therefurbishmentmeasuresthatwereappliedtobothdwellingshavebeenreviewedinorder toestablishhowapplicabletheywouldbetoothers.Themajorityofthesemeasurescouldbe applied to all other dwellings of the same type, with the exception of the internal wall insulationinsomecircumstances,theMVHRandtheconcretefloorinsulation.Theinternal wall insulation is an essential component of these refurbishments and without it the CO2 reductions would be much lower. This presents a significant barrier which will be fully consideredinchapterfive:cost,ValueCarbonandotherlimitations.TheMVHRandconcrete floorinsulationhavealesssignificantbearingontheCO2 reductionswhichisdemonstratedin chapterfive:cost,ValueCarbonandotherlimitations.Withtheexceptionoftheabove,these refurbishmentsareveryapplicabletoothersofthattype.Thenextchapterwillmodelthese casestudiesinordertoverifythestatedCO2reductions.
23

Chapterfour:DEMScot,Scotlandsdomesticenergymodel DEMScotconfiguration Having established the applicability of the chosen case studies to other dwellings, the next step is to strengthen reliability in the case studies using DEMScot. Furthermore using the DEMScot model in comparison with SAP will give an opportunity to view where DEMScot differsinitsoutputs. Anydifferenceswillbeconsideredwhenusingthemodeltogenerate ValueCarbonscenariosinchapterfive:cost,ValueCarbonandotherlimitations. DEMScot was developed to allow the Scottish Government to see the impact of different policy interventions aimed at reducing CO2 emissions from housing (Scottish Government Social Research, 2010). The model was created in Microsoft Excel and draws heavily on research from Scottish housing, CO2 emissions and economic determinants of carbon emissions. The literature reviewed to develop the tool was extensive; 134 separate references, all produced since 1999, the majority being released during the past two years. The manual for DEMScot critiques the existing modelling tool used to determine emissions and energy use from UK dwellings: BREDEM12. The DEMScot team state there are several shortcomingsintheBREDEM12methodologywhichisusedforSAPthattheDEMScotmodel aims to address. These are: the difference in Scottish climate data, incorporating the latest fuelcostdataandaccuratefutureenergycosts,behaviouralaspectssuchaschoseninternal temperatureetc,accurateestimatesofenergyusebylighting,cookingandappliancesandthe performance of renewable technologies. The following are the shortcomings stated by DEMScotthatareofparticularrelevancetothestudyofHTTdwellings. ThefirstcritiqueisthattheBREDEMmethoddoesnotprovideaccurateandrealisticestimates ofenergyconsumption,andcarbonandotherenvironmentalemissionsfromlighting,cooking and appliances. Despite minor modifications, algorithms for hot water consumption date from the 1980s; since then overall use has been affected by changes in equipment and behaviour i.e. powershowers and dishwashers etc. Although algorithms for lighting have beenupdatedinthe2005revisionofSAP,algorithmsforelectricalappliancesinSAPalsodate from the 1980s, when the type and use of these appliances was much different i.e. low ownershipofPCs,nointernetandplasmaTVs(ScottishGovernmentSocialResearch,2010). Thisstanceissomewhatsupportedbyliteraturethatsuggestselectricityandlightingusehas risen sharply over the last 30 years, although, the same data states that this rise has been
24

partiallyoffsetbyafallinenergyusefromcooking(Shorrock,Utley,2003).Recentresearch hasshownthatSAP2005mayunderestimateoverallCO2emissionsforlightsandappliances by up to 15% (Lowe, 2007). Additionally, this point was also picked up in technical papers supportingSAP2009,whichrecommendedupdatingtheequationsforlights,appliancesand associatedgains,andwaterheating(Henderson,2009). Secondly,themethoddoesnotaccuratelymodelbadlyheatedhomesbythefuelpoori.e.HTT dwellings.BREDEMusesthetwozonemodelwithatemperaturedifferenceinthemainliving areaandtherestofthedwelling.Italsoassumesthatdwellingsareadequatelyheatedand thattheheatingsystemisadequatelysized.DEMScotstatesthattheseassumptionscanbe considerably inaccurate, and can have a significant impact on the dwellings energy consumption. In respect of the outputs from BREDEM; space heating energy use in older dwellings can be overestimated because old dwellings are often heated to a lower temperature than modern ones; a compromise between running costs and thermal comfort onthepartoftheoccupantsofolderdwellings(ScottishGovernmentSocialResearch,2010). TheDEMScotmodelhasthreecomponentsthatwereadjustedtomodeltherefurbishments:a Building stock database, a Building physics model and Factors under occupant control. The buildingstockdatabasecontainsthephysicalparametersconsideredtohavethemostimpact ontheperformanceofdwellingsi.e.dwellingage,wallconstruction,buildingform,dwelling size, heating system and the number of floors. The model also allows for specific selection and modelling of HTT dwellings. Two solid wall dwellings were added to the database for Aubert Park and Midmoor Road with all the characteristics and physical parameters of the dwellings. The building physics model contains extensive data and formulae to calculate energy consumption and emissions. The DEMScot team updated the methodologies for calculating lighting, small power, cooking and water consumption in respect of the inadequacies previously highlighted in the BREDEM model. The updated methodology accounts more realisticallyforthenumberofoccupants,behaviourandincreaseduseofpowerovertime. The building physics model also contains climate data, allowing required consumption of energy for space heating and lighting to be derived more accurately. The default mean external temperatures, annual heating degree days, monthly solar radiation and declination
25

werebasedonaveragesforEastScotland.Inordertomodeltherefurbishmentcasestudies accuratelytheclimatedatahadtobeadjusted.TheDEMScotmodelhastheoptiontoselect mean external temperatures for the Thames area, so these were selected. Annual heating degree days were adjusted to the 20 year averages for Greater London obtained from the Oxford Environmental Change Institute (Oxford Environmental Change Institute, 2010). Consideration was given to the fact that mean annual temperatures in South East England haveincreasedby0.78Cbasedon19611990and19912004averages,andannualheating degree days have decreased by 13.9% since 1961 (Perry, 2006). However, a year to year analysisofclimatedatademonstratedthattherecanbeasignificantvarianceintemperatures anddegreedays.Toavoidtherisk ofdistortedoutputsfromthemodel,datafora20year averagewaschosen. MonthlysolarradiationdataforLondonwasobtainedfromNASAsAtmosphereScienceData Centre (NASA, 2010). Monthly solar declination data for London was obtained from the US Department of Commerce, National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration: Earth System Research Laboratory (National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration, 2010). In order to evaluatetheaccuracyofthedatacollectedfortheLondonclimate,theScottishclimatedata presentintheDEMScotmodelwascomparedwiththeoutputsfortheScottishclimatefrom theabovesources.Thedatawasfoundtobeaccuratetoonedecimalplace. TheFactorsunderoccupantcontrolcomponentinvolvesmodificationstoventilationrates,hot waterandelectricityuse.Thisaccountsforlifestyleandhabitsoftheoccupiers.Themodel canalsobemanipulatedtoaccountforchangesinbehaviourasoccupantsbecomemoreor evenlessconsciousoftheirCO2emissions.Occupantsaredividedintolow,mediumandhigh users;thesplitis30%,40%and30%respectively.Thiselementwasadjustedto100%medium users;theassumptionsmadebytheScottishGovernmentformediumusebehaviourremain. DEMScotandSAPoutputsAubertPark Detailed data for the Aubert Park dwelling before refurbishment such as the construction materials,areasofthebuildingelements,Uvalues,planshapeefficiency,ventilationandair infiltrationratesandtheheatingsystemwereenteredintotheDEMScothousingdatabaseand asimulationwasrun.Theresultsofthesimulationareshownintable4.
Energyrequirements(kWhpa) SAP (BRE&UnitedHouse) 26
DEMScot (1occupant) DEMScot (2occupants)

Spaceheating* HotWater* Cooking GasconsumptionSAPitems Gasconsumptionfromallitems Appliances Cooking Lighting* Pumpsandfans* ElectricconsumptionSAPitems Electricconsumptionallitems CO2emissionsfromSAPitems(tonnespa) CO2emissionsfromallitems(tonnespa)

*SAPitems

11,912 4,310 544 16,222 16,766 1,772 310 259 196 596 455 2,537 3.80 3.34 3.80 4.32 Table4:AubertParkbeforerefurbishment,SAPandDEMScotoutputs

18,096

10,531 5,205 635 15,736 16,371 2,152 362 314 196 510 3,024 3.27 4.45

Table 4 demonstrates a definite divergence between both DEMScot outputs and SAP in gas and electric consumption. The DEMScot outputs are lower than SAP. Gas consumption is lowerby10%and13%,andelectricby14%and24%dependingonthenumberofoccupants. SAP calculations are based on standard occupancy and climate data, and regulated use of heating,hotwater,lightingandventilationsystems(DECC,2010b).AsSAPdoesnotaccount for behavioural savings, outputs can be compared across the UK. Conversely, DEMScot requires defining the number of occupants per dwelling; this dictates the amount of consumption as demonstrated by table 4. Data for Aubert Park after refurbishment were entered into the model and a simulation was run. The results of the full refurbishment are shownintable5.
Energyrequirements(kWhpa)
Spaceheating* HotWater* Cooking GasconsumptionSAPitems Gasconsumptionfromallitems Appliances Cooking Lighting* Pumpsandfans* ElectricconsumptionSAPitems Electricconsumptionallitems ElectricgeneratedbymicroCHP* CO2emissionsfromSAPitems(tonnespa) CO2emissionsfromallitems(tonnespa)

SAP (BRE) 6,710 484 n/a 1.51 27

SAP (UnitedHouse) 7,500 484 900 1.14

DEMScot (1occupants)

DEMScot (2occupants)

5,248 1,789 544 7,037 7,581 1,772 310 65 284 349 2,431 844 1.03 2.01

4,626 2,498 635 7,124 7,759 2,152 362 78 284 362 2,876 845 1.06 2.24

*SAPitemsonly **DeductedfromCO2emissions

Table5:AubertParkafterrefurbishment,SAPandDEMScotoutputs

Table 5 demonstrates that again there is a definite divergence for gas and electric consumption between both DEMScot and the United House SAP estimates. The DEMScot outputsarelowerthanSAP.Gasconsumptionislowerby6%and5%,andelectricby28%and 25%,dependingonthenumberofoccupants.Thereisalsoasignificantvariationinthegas consumptionandassociatedCO2emissionsbetweenthetwoSAPanalyses.Thisisbecauseof theBaxiEcogenCHPunit.TheEcogenisanewproductthatisnotcommerciallyavailabletill spring2010;AubertParkwasthefirstprojecttousetheunitinadwelling.Becauseofthetest datafortheEcogennotbeingavailableatthetimeoftheBRESAPanalysis,BREbasedtheir SAP calculations on a class A condensing boiler (91% efficiency) and overall CO2 reductions were calculated to be 60%. BRE stated that Baxi have since provided indicative data that suggests overall CO2 reductions could have been 70% with the micro CHP. United House included the micro CHP unit based on Baxis indicative data and consequently their calculationsproduceda70%reductioninoverallCO2.DEMScotcalculatesCO2 reductionsat 69%and68%foroneandtwooccupantsrespectively. DEMScotandSAPoutputsMidmoorRoad ThefulldetailsofMidmoorRoadwereenteredintoDEMScotandasimulationwasrun,the resultsareshownintable6.
Energyrequirements(kWhpa) Spaceheating* HotWater* Cooking GasconsumptionSAPitems Gasconsumptionfromallitems Appliances Cooking Lighting* Pumpsandfans* ElectricconsumptionSAPitems Electricconsumptionallitems CO2emissionsfromSAPitems(tonnespa) CO2emissionsfromallitems(tonnespa) *SAPitemsonly SAP 28,573 3,507 32,080 n/a 932 214 1,146 n/a 6.71 n/a DEMScot (2occupants) 26,670 3,851 631 30,521 31,152 2,964 359 437 214 651 3,974 6.20 7.71 DEMScot (3occupants) 24,974 4,676 721 29,650 30,371 3,755 410 554 214 768 4,933 6.08 7.97 DEMScot (4occupants) 23,876 5,502 811 29,378 30,189 4,546 462 671 214 885 5,893 6.07 8.34

28

Table6:MidmoorRoadbeforerefurbishment,SAPandDEMScotoutputs

SimilarlytoAubertPark,table6demonstratesadefinitedivergencebetweenbothDEMScot outputsandSAPingasandelectricconsumption.TheDEMScotoutputsarelowerthanSAP. Gasconsumptionislowerby5%to8%andelectricby43%to23%,dependingonthenumber ofoccupants.DataforMidmoorRoadaftertherefurbishmentwereenteredinDEMScotand asimulationwasrun,theresultsofthefullrefurbishmentareshownintable7.

Energyrequirements(kWhpa)
Spaceheating* HotWater* Cooking GasconsumptionSAPitems Gasconsumptionfromallitems Appliances Cooking Lighting* Pumpsandfans* ElectricconsumptionSAPitems Electricconsumptionallitems ElectricgeneratedbymicroCHP* CO2emissionsfromSAPitems(tonnespa) CO2emissionsfromallitems(tonnespa)
*SAPitemsonly **Deductionfromoverallfigure

SAP
11,501 2,994 14,495 n/a 441 488 929 n/a 1739 2.22 n/a

DEMScot DEMScot DEMScot (2occupants) (3occupants) (4occupants) 10,532 9,737 9,000 2,480 3,184 3,889 631 721 811 13,012 12,921 12,889 13,643 13,642 13,700 2,964 3,755 4,546 359 410 462 109 138 168 488 488 488 597 626 656 3,920 4,791 5,664 1561 1550 1546 1.89 1.89 1.90 3.41 3.79 4.01

Table7:MidmoorRoadafterrefurbishment,SAPandDEMScotoutputs

AgainsimilarlytoAubertPark,table7demonstratesthatthereisamarkeddivergenceofgas andelectricconsumptionbetweenbothDEMScotandtheUnitedHouseSAPestimates.The DEMScotoutputsarelowerthanSAP.Gasconsumptionislowerby12%to11%,andelectric by 36% to 29%, depending on the number of occupants. SAP calculates the overall CO2 reductiontobe67%andDEMScotcalculatestheoverallreductiontobe70%and69%fortwo, threeandfouroccupantsrespectively. Evaluationofthemodelsoutputs Forbothdwellings,theDEMScotoutputsarelowerthanSAPforgasconsumption,bothbefore and after refurbishment. However the lower outputs are markedly lower before refurbishment.ThissupportstheDEMScotcommentsthatSAPoverestimatesheatinginbadly heated HTT homes owing to the effects of fuel poverty, as after refurbishment the owners
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wouldnolongersufferfuelpovertysopresumablytheirheatingrequirementswouldnotbein effectcapped.Theprimaryreasonfortheoverallloweroutputsingasconsumptionappears to be because of the climate data. DEMScots climate data was changed from the default settingsofEastScotlandtoGreaterLondoninordertomodelAubertParkandMidmoorRoad accurately.SAPsclimatedataisbasedonmeanexternaltemperaturesforalloftheUK.The meanexternaltemperatureinGreaterLondonislowerthanEastScotland(MetOffice,2010) (Scharmer, Greif, 2000), therefore the internal heating demand would be decreased (Mavrogianni,2009). Inordertotestthis,asensitivityanalysiswascarriedoutbymodellingbothcasestudieswith climatedataforEastScotland;thisisthedefaultclimatesettingforthemodel.Theresultwas that the overall percentage of CO2 reduction was the same as when the climate data for London was used. However, the space heating requirements increased so that the gas consumption was higher than in the SAP estimates. This suggests that the reason for the overall lower outputs is primarily because of the climate data being changed to Greater London. One significant difference in the modelling results concerns lighting. DEMScots estimate of electricityuseafterlowenergylightinghasbeeninstalled,issignificantlylowerthanthatof SAP.ThegreaterreductionproducedbytheDEMScotmodelissupportedbydatafromthe EnergySavingTrust,whichstatesthatlowenergylightingcansaveupto80%oftheelectricity used by standard lighting (EST, 2010a). However, the difference in electric use has a substantial impact on the average CO2 reduction; if the DEMScot lighting consumption calculation was substituted, the overall CO2 reductions in SAP for the Midmoor Road simulation would increase from 67% to 70%. With the exception of lighting, the DEMScot outputsareveryclosetoSAPs. Overall, the SAP and DEMScot simulations calculated a CO2 reduction of 68% to 70% for AubertPark,and67%to70%forMidmoorRoad.AlthoughthisdiffersfromSAPslightly,the DEMScot model was designed to account for inadequacies in the SAP methodology, so by virtueofitspurposetheoutputswoulddiffertosomeextent.Themajorcontributortothese savings is the Baxi Ecogen micro CHP. Its influence is demonstrated in the Aubert Park simulationwheretheincorporationoftheEcogenresultedinanadditional10%CO2reduction.

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TheEcogenunit Such a reduction in CO2 is significant and therefore must be examined and verified. The CarbonTrustiscurrentlyconductingoneofthemostcomprehensivefieldtrialassessmentsof microCHPsystems,withinterimresultsreleasedin2007.TheEcogenunitwasnotincludedin the trial; however the report contained two important factors relatingto the overall carbon performance of micro CHPs when compared with condensing boiler systems. Firstly, as the heatthedemandincreases,thelikelihoodofCO2savingsincreasesbecausemoreelectricityis generated.Atlowheatdemandsoflessthan6000kWhpamicroCHPsandcondensingboilers are generally indistinguishable. However, with heat demands of more than 12,000 kWh pa there is a statistical likelihood that micro CHP systems will outperform condensing boilers. ConsequentlymicroCHPunitsaremostappropriateandbeneficialforhouseswithhigherheat demands of over 20,000 kWh, such as larger houses with 3 bedrooms or more and older housesi.e.solidwallhouses.Inthiscapacitytypicalsavingsareexpectedtorangefrom5%to 10% (Carbon Trust, 2007). The BRE referred to the results of the Carbon Trusts trial and impliedthattheEcogenunitmaynotbefullyutilisedinadwellingoflowerheatdemandlike AubertPark.ThesecondfactoristhatcurrentmicroCHPunitstypicallyneedtooperatefora minimum cycle of over one hour to provide an overall CO2 saving benefit relative to a condensing boiler (Carbon Trust, 2007). If appropriate use was adopted benefits could be realised. In Aubert Parks case, the heating demand had been significantly reduced by improvement measures to the building envelope, resulting in space heating and water demand reducing dramaticallytoapproximately6000kWhpa.Inspiteofthis,theEcogenisanewproductthat claims unprecedented efficiency, and production of 1 kWh of electricity during a period of heat demand (Baxi, 2010b). Allowing for this exceptional efficiency and the new heating controlsthatwereinstalledinthedwelling,itisconceivablethattheEcogencouldbecapable of producing an increased saving relative to a condensing boiler. United House used an efficiencyfigureof82%intheircalculations.Baxinowstateanefficiencyof92%(Baxi,2010a). To provide a basis for comparison and to avoid a potentially optimistic efficiency figure, an efficiencyof82%wasusedintheDEMScotmodel. The Ecogens influence is increased further because of the carbon bonus for electricity generated and returned back to the grid. The carbon intensity for gas and electric used in
31

dwellings is 0.194 kg CO2/kWh and 0.422 kg CO2/kWh respectively. The current SAP methodology allows microgenerated electricity to displace grid emissions at 0.568 kg CO2/kWh,whilegridelectricityconsumptionhasacarbonintensityof0.422kgCO2/kWh(Cole, 2008).The0.422kgCO2/kWhfigureisbasedontheGovernmentslongtermprojectionsfor theaveragemixofgridelectricityfrom2005to2010.The0.568kgCO2/kWhfigureisbased on the 19981999 marginal mix of generating plant plus a factor to account for new build from2005to2010,assumingthatitwouldbecombinedcyclegasturbines(Bergman,etal., 2010). Because of this, the figure is contentious and has been challenged (Bergman, et al., 2010).Itislikelythatthe0.568kgCO2/kWhwillrevisedinlatereditionsofSAP(Bergman,et al.,2010) Thisisapotentialweaknessinthestudy.Becauseofthecarbonbonusforelectricityreturned to the grid, refurbishments can claim high savings. If the long term average gridmix assumptionof0.43kgCO2/kWhisusedinstead,therelativeCO2benefitsofCHPwouldreduce accordingly (Carbon Trust, 2007). The DEMScot model avoids the possibility of inflated reductionsasthecarbonintensityofCHPgeneratedandreturnedelectricityisthesameas the grid; 0.422 kg CO2/kWh, consequently the actual carbon savings generated by the DEMScot model for Aubert Park are 1.16 and 1.18 tonnes of CO2 pa for 1 and 2 occupants respectively. However, in order for a direct comparison to the SAP data, the 0.568 kg CO2/kWhfigurehasbeenusedintheDEMScotoutputsshownintables5and7. It has been confirmed that with the correct types of materials and heating systems utilised, savingsofupto70%canbemadefromtwotypesofsolidwalldwellings.Thenextchapter will consider the costs that are incurred in order to achieve savings of this magnitude. Moreover, given that up to a 70% reduction in CO2 can be made by employing all of the measuresinthesedwellings,thenextchapterwillseektoexamineatwhatreductionscanbe madebyemployingfewermeasuresandatwhatpointdoesthefinancialinvestmentofthese measuresbegintoyieldlowerreturnsintermsofcarbon.
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Chapterfive:cost,ValueCarbonandotherlimitations Thepreviouschapterhasestablishedwhatreductionsarepracticallyfeasiblefortwotypesof solid wall dwellings. The objective of this chapter is to examine the additional barriers that werehighlightedinchapter1:introduction.Itwillconsiderthebarrierofcostandinvestigate the optimal point of refurbishment. Furthermore, it will also consider some of the wider issues that affect the feasibility of solid wall housing in contributing to 80% reductions. All theseissuesmustbeexaminedinordertodeterminethetruepotentialofsolidwallhousing. Totalcostandvalue AubertParkandMidmoorRoadachievedCO2savingsintheorderof68%to70%and69%to 70% for a total capital cost of 21,190 and 18,210 respectively at 2009 prices. It must be noted that Aubert Park does not necessarily represent the average converted flat. The averageconvertedflatinEnglandproduces5.8tonnesofCO2pa,hasafloorareais66m2,and anaverageSAPratingof44(DCLG,2009).AubertParkproducedlessCO2emissionsandhada smallerfloorarea;althoughithadahigherSAPratingbeforerefurbishment,makingitharder toachievehighersavingsthanotherdwellingswithlowSAPratings(DCLG,2009).Additionally theaveragemediumtolargeterraceproduces5.8tonnesofCO2pa,hasafloorareaof94m2, andanaverageSAPratingof50.4(DCLG,2009).MidmoorRoadhadhigherCO2emissions,a larger floor area, and a lower SAP rating before refurbishment making it easier to achieve highersavingsthanotherdwellingswithhigherSAPratings(DCLG,2009) It would be improvident to adopt an allencompassing approach and presume all of these dwellingscouldachievethesamelevelofCO2reductionsforthesamecost.However,arough order of magnitude case will be presented. Of the 6.599 million solid wall dwellings in England,approximately490,000areconvertedflatsand1.094millionaremidterraces(DCLG, 2009). If all 490,000 flats and 1.094 million midterraces were refurbished to the same specificationasAubertParkand MidmoorRoad,thecostwouldbe10.4and 19.91billion respectively,whichisclearlyasubstantialsumofmoney.Therearecurrentlyasmallnumber ofmajorsourcesoffundingandloansavailabletohomeownersandoccupiers.Thetwomost significantaretheCarbonEmissionsReductionTargetscheme,whichhasavailablefundingof 1.5billion(Jenkins,2010),andtheinterestfreeUKEnergyEfficiencyHomeLoanwhichhasa totalof700millionallocatedperannum.
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The cost of refurbishing existing dwellings is seen to be one of the key barriers to home owners implementing refurbishments (Pett, 2004). In light of this it seems essential to investigatetherelationshipbetweenexpenditureandCO2savingsinordertomaximisevalue. This concept was integrated into the design phase of the Aubert Park refurbishment, and is very similar to the process of Value Engineering; the name given to this approach is Value Carbon.ValueCarbonisaunitthatillustratesthecostforeverykgofCO2saved,thelowerthe lowerthefigure,themorecosteffectivetherefurbishmentmeasureis. ValueCarbonAubertPark TheAubertParkrefurbishmentmeasuresweresimulatedindividuallyinDEMScotinorderto determinetheirseparatecarbonsavingssothataValueCarbonfigurecouldbeestablished. Theresultsarepresentedintable8.
Measures
1)Lowenergylighting 2)Draughtproofing 3)MicroCHPgasboiler 4)Insulateexternalwalls 5)Doubleglazing(vacuum) 6)Insulatefloors 7)MVHR 8)Rainwaterharvesting 9)Insulatethermalbridges

Installedcost
40 650 4,800 6,100 600 3,700 6,300 1,000 2,000

Carbonsaved (kgCO2)
70 104 1685 513 21 118 80 0 0

ValueCarbon (/kg) 0.57 6.23 2.85 11.90 28.90 31.32 78.80 n/a n/a

Table8:AubertParkrefurbishmentmeasures,ValueCarbon

Astable8shows,thereisalargevarianceinthecostandeffectivenesswitha79:1difference betweenthemostandleasteffectivemeasures.Followingthis,measuresweregroupedinto incrementalimprovementsbasedontheirValueCarbonfigureandtheeasewithwhichthey could be applied to a dwelling. Increment 1 consists of measures 1) and 2), increment 2 consistsofmeasures1)to3),increment3consistsofmeasures1)to5),increment4consists of measures 1) to 6), and increment 5 consists of all measures that had an effect on CO2 reduction. The increments were modelled as one package; the reduction in consumption is shownintable9.
Saving(kWhpa)
Spaceheating HotWater Cooking

Increment 1
385 0 0

Increment 2
1,947 2,707 0

Increment 3
4,803 2,707 0

Increment 4
5,422 2,707 0

Increment 5
5,905 2,707 0

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Appliances 0 0 0 Cooking 0 0 0 Lighting 236 236 236 Pumpsandfans 0 20 20 ElectricgeneratedbymicroCHP 0 1,318 987 Gasconsumption 385 4,654 7,510 Electricconsumption 236 216 216 ReductioninCO2(tonnespa) 0.17 1.74 2.11 Total%saving 5% 53% 65% Cost() 690 5,490 12,190 OverallCO2emissions(tonnespa) 3.09 1.53 1.16 Table9:AubertParkincrementalimprovements

0 0 236 20 902 8,129 216 2.18 67% 15,890 1.09

0 0 236 88 845 8,612 148 2.21 68% 22,190 1.05

Table 9 shows that for relatively low cost, substantial reductions in CO2 emissions can be made, a total of 1.74 tonnes of CO2 (53%) for 5,490. It also shows that there are two significant jumps in the CO2 reductions; increment 1 to 2 because of the micro CHP and increment2to3becauseofthesolidwallinsulation.Afterthesemeasureshavebeenapplied thereisseverelydiminishedcarbonsavingpotential.Thisisbetterillustratedbyfigure2.

ValueCarbonAnalysisAubertPark
24,000 22,000 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 Increment1 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Increment3 SAPCO2 GridCO2 Increment4 Increment5

Cost()

Increment2

ReductioninCO2(%)

Figure2:AubertParkValueCarbonAnalysisgraph

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Figure2demonstratesthepaybackintermsofCO2reductionsforeachspent.Thecurveis similar to an exponential growth curve; after increment 2 the curve becomes dramatically steeper,followingincrement3thecarbonsavedisminimalandthecostishigh.TheSAPCO2 curve is based on the carbon intensity of electricity returned to the grid based on the SAP methodology of 0.568 kg CO2/kWh. The Grid CO2 is based on the carbon intensity of electricityreturnedtothegridbasedonthelongtermaveragegridmixassumptionof0.43kg CO2/kWh. Thishasbeenaddedinrespectofthecriticismithasreceivedandthelikelihood thatitwillberevisedinfutureversionsofSAP(Bergman,etal.,2010). ValueCarbonMidmoorRoad TheMidmoorRoadrefurbishmentmeasuresweresimulatedindividuallyinDEMScotinorder todeterminetheirseparatecarbonsavingssothataValueCarbonfigurecouldbeestablished. Theresultsarepresentedintable10. Measures
1)Lowenergylighting 2)Draughtproofing 3)Loftinsulation 4)MicroCHP 5)Insulateexternalwalls 6)Insulatetimberfloor 7)Insulateconcretefloor 8)MVHR Installedcost
80 310 1,050 6,000 4,300 2,050 2,100 2,400

Carbonsaved (kgCO2)
118 234 140 2,231 1,805 163 86 49

ValueCarbon (/kg) 0.68 1.32 7.50 2.69 2.38 12.56 24.49 48.51

Table10:MidmoorRoadrefurbishmentmeasures,ValueCarbon

Table 10 shows a less dramatic variance in the cost and effectiveness in comparison with Aubert Park, with a 25:1 difference between the most and least effective measures. Additionally it shows that the MVHR was detrimental to the carbon reductions. The MVHR saved energy by reducing space heating demand as a portion of the dwellings heat was recovered.However,theelectricityusedinoperatingtheventilationsystemsfansoffsetthis saving. Energy savings are only realised in airtight properties (<5m3/hr/m2 at 50Pa) where almostallventilationairpassesthroughtheheatexchanger(EST,2006a).Thisdwellinghad onlyachievedanairtightnessof7.5m3/hr/m2at50Pabecausethechimneyswerevented. Following the calculation of table 10, measures were again grouped into incremental improvements based on their Value Carbon figure and the ease with which they could be applied to a dwelling. Increment 1 consists of measures 1) and 2), increment 2 consists of
36

measures1)to4),increment3consistsifmeasures1)to5),increment4consistsofmeasures 1)to7),andincrement5isthefullupgradeandconsistsofallmeasures.Theincrementswere modelledasonepackageandthereductioninconsumptionisshownintable11.

Saving(kWh) Increment 1 Increment 2 Increment 3 Increment 4
15,200 1,494 0 0 0 416 75 1,542 16,694 341 4.26 70% 15,890 1.82 1,550 16,719 217 4.22 69% 18,210 1.86 0 0 416 199

Increment 5
15,225 1,494 0

Spaceheating 1,348 5,357 13,880 HotWater 0 1,492 1,494 Cooking 0 0 0 Appliances 0 0 0 Cooking 0 0 0 Lighting 416 416 416 Pumpsandfans 0 75 75 ElectricgeneratedbymicroCHP 2,734 1,712 Gasconsumptionsaving 1,348 6,849 15,374 Electricconsumptionsaving 416 341 341 ReductioninCO2(tonnespa) 0.44 3.03 4.10 Total%saving 7% 50% 67% Cost() 390 7,440 11,740 OverallCO2emissions(tonnespa) 5.64 3.05 1.98 Table11:MidmoorRoadincrementalimprovements

Table 11, like table 9, shows that for a relatively low cost, substantial reductions in CO2 emissions can be made, a total of 3.03 tonnes of CO2 (50%) for 7,440. It also shows that therearetwosignificantjumpsintheCO2 reductions;increment1to2becauseofthemicro CHP and increment 2 to 3 because of the solid wall insulation. After increment 3 has been applied there is a severely diminished carbon saving potential and the cost is high. This is betterillustratedbyfigure3.

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ValueCarbonAnalysisMidmoorRoad
20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 Increment3 SAPCO2 GridCO2 Increment2 Increment5 Increment4

Cost()

10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0% Increment1 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

ReductioninCO2(%)

Figure3:MidmoorRoadValueCarbonAnalysisgraph

Figure 3 demonstrates the payback in terms of CO2 reductions for each spent. Between increments 1 and 3, the curve is almost linear, following increment 3 the gradient changes radicallyandthereisverylittlecarbonsavingforarelativelyhighcost.Thedifferenceinthe gradientbetweenincrements1and3inthetwodwellingsisprimarilybecauseofcost.Aubert Park and Midmoor Road achieved 53% and 50% CO2 reductions by increment 2, and reductions of 65% and 67% by increment 3 respectively. However, by increment 2, Aubert Park and Midmoor Road had cost 5,490 and 7,440, and by increment 3 they had cost 12,190and11,740respectively.ThisdifferenceincostisbecauseMidmoorRoadincluded 1,050 of loft insulation in increment 2, and the installation of the micro CHP cost 1,200 more because of additional plumbing work. Contrast this with Aubert Park, where in increment3thesolidwallinsulationhadcost1,400moreandglazinghadbeenincludedata costof600.
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Optimumrefurbishment The data illustrates that for different dwellings with somewhat different refurbishment measure requirements, the gradient of the Value Carbon curve can vary. However, in both casestherewasacriticaltippingpointwherebyadditionalmeasureswerecostlyandprovided littlecarbonsavinginreturn.Thisinvitesthequestionofwhatmightbetheoptimumlevelof refurbishment.Thisissuehasbeengivenlittleconsiderationinpreviousreportsandstudies, perhapsbecausemostHTTrefurbishmentshaveonlyachievedreasonablebutnotexceptional reductions(EnergyEfficiencyPartnershipsforHomes,2004).Onereporthasconsideredthis conceptandspecifiescostsintheregionof6,500perdwelling(WWF,2008).However,close inspection reveals that the study relies on radical decarbonisation of the national grid to a carbon intensity less than half of the current carbon intensity (Ecotricity, 2010); this is not included in the costs. Numerous sources agree that decarbonisation of the nation grid is essential to achieve the required CO2 reductions (EST, 2006c) (Lowe, 2007), but it is not guaranteed to happen (EST, 2008). Consequently, the refurbishment measures specified in this report would only achieve a 31% reduction in CO2 emissions if the nation grid was not decarbonised(WWF,2008). With the introduction of micro CHPs and innovative insulation, there is the opportunity to achieve significant reductions in solid wall dwellings beyond what has been achieved in previous refurbishments. However, pursuing maximum reductions without considering the obviousdiminishingreturnsdemonstratedbythepreviousdatawouldnotnecessarilyprovide thebestoptionintermsofcostandCO2. Given that the cost of refurbishment measures is regarded as a substantial barrier, the opportunity cost of the finance required to refurbish dwellings must be given adequate attention. For example, Aubert Park can achieve a 53% (1.74 tonnes) CO2 reduction for 5,490,65%(2.11tonnes)for12,190and68%(2.21tonnes)for22,190.Consequently,it wouldbemorecostandcarboneffectivetorefurbish70a,70band70cAubertParktoeach achieveareductionof53%,thereforeresultingintotalreductionof5.22tonnesfor16,470, asopposedtorefurbishing70aalonetoachieveareductionof68%,thereforeresultingina totalreductionof2.21tonnesfor22,190.ThesameprinciplealsoappliestoMidmoorRoad. Thistradeoffanalysiswouldberequiredforeachindividualcase,asthediversityoftheUK stock means that there is no standard refurbishment package for a dwelling. The same
39

measures could be applied to different dwellings and achieve different CO2 reductions for differentcosts(Jenkins,2010).However,thediminishingreturnsareevidentinboththecase studiesandalmostcertainlywouldapplytootherdwellings. Thewillingnesstopayandreducingcosts Achievinghighlevelsofreductionswillrelyonimplementingmeasuresthatarenotnecessarily deemedtobecosteffective,inthattheyareunlikelytopresentaneconomicpaybackthatis attractive to the consumer (Peacock, et al., 2009) (Pett, 2004). A willingnesstopay survey conducted in 2008 found two key findings in relation to this. Firstly, 78% of home owners thoughtitwastheresponsibilityoftheGovernmentorLocalAuthoritiestopayforatleasthalf of the cost of refurbishment measures, only 17% felt that the home owner should be responsibleforpayingformostofit(Peacock,etal.,2009).Secondly,theprincipalmotivating factorforreducingtheirenergyconsumptionwasreducingtheirenergybills(Peacock,etal., 2009).Notsurprisingly,theoccupantswillingnesstopayformeasuresthemselvesincreased withthetotalhouseholdincome,thetimethattheywereintendingtostayinthatproperty, andtheperceivedassetvalueoftheirpropertiesasaresultofthemeasures.Theseresults suggest that the majority of respondents feel that climate change is a problem has been causedbythewidersocietyratherthantheindividual,andconsequentlyshouldbepaidforby asocietalagent.DeliveringsubstantialCO2reductionsinthehousingsectorisfundamentalto climate change policy, and therefore motivating homeowners to adopt responsibility for implementingenergysavingmeasuresisessential. Onewaytoaddressthisproblemwouldbemakerefurbishmentmeasuresmoreeconomic.To dothisthemarketwouldhavetobeimproved(Jenkins,2010).However,thecurrentreliance on market related solutions to achieve infiltration of newer technologies and refurbishment measuresintodwellingsislimited,asthereisaclearlackofworkingexemplarsavailable.A lackofinformationrelatingtoperformanceandreliabilityofthesemeasuresmakesitdifficult toencourageamassmarket(Jenkins,2010).Oneapproachwouldbetofocusonthewilling topaysector;householdswithsignificantdisposableincomeandambitionstoimproveenergy efficiency and therefore reduce their CO2 emissions (Geroski, 2000). This has been demonstrated with the capital cost of IT equipment (Jenkins, 2010). The reduction in the capitalcostofameasureasthenumberofunitsproducedincreases,couldresultincheaper

40

measuresforthemassmarket,andthereforeencouragehigheruptakeratesofthatmeasure (Peacock,etal.,2009). Anotherapproachwouldbetofocusonfuelpoorsocialhousing,asthiscouldprovidealarge number of exemplar refurbishments as well as reducing fuel poverty (Jenkins, 2010). This would in turn stimulate the private buyer and the manufacturers, therefore improving confidenceandreducingcapitalcosts(Jenkins,2010).Thisapproachwouldrequiresignificant subsidiestobemadeavailabletosocialhousingassociations.However,substantialreductions in the cost of carrying out the work could be made because of the economies of scale associated with bulk buying and large scale projects (Plimmer, 2008). This would provide better value for the government. Some of the wider benefits of this would be boosts in employmentandGrossDomesticProduct(WWF,2008). Solidwallinsulation The data presented in chapter three: DEMScot: Scotlands domestic energy model and numerousotherresearchreportsdemonstratethatsolidwallinsulationhasavitalroletoplay inreducingCO2emissions.However,thecurrentrateofinstallationislow(BRE,2008b).The reasonsforthisarethereductionintheusablefloorareaofdwellings(inthecaseofinternal insulation), change of external appearance of dwellings (in the case of external insulation), highcostsanddisruptiontotheoccupants(BRE,2008b).Thesebarriersmustbeovercomein ordertoincreasetheuptakeofthismeasure. Thereareavarietyofdifferentsolidwalltypesandassociatedfinishes.Thepredominantwall finishismasonrypointing(55%);theothersignificantproportionisarenderedfinish(33%).A further 10% has a mixture of both, and the remaining 2% has a non masonry natural finish (BRE, 2008b). Following this, solid wall insulation can be specified according to the type of finishandinthepresenceofotherobstacles. Intheoryexternalorinternalwallinsulationcouldbeappliedtoalmostanydwellingexceptin the instance of listed buildings. External insulation is applied in either a wet render or a claddingsystem.Itofferstheadvantageoflittledisruptiontotheoccupants,reducestherisk of thermal bridging, can improve the look of an ageing and weathered facade, and can be specified in order to solve rain penetration and frost damage (Sustainable Energy Ireland, 2005). A minor barrier is that external wall insulation may require planning consent as it
41

changestheappearanceofadwelling(ImpetusConsulting,2004),althoughthisisunlikelyto applytodwellingsthatarealreadyrendered(BRE,2008b).Anotherbarriermaybeinthecase ofconvertedorpurposebuiltflats,wherealltheoccupierswouldhavetoagreetochangethe external appearance (BRE, 2008b). The primary barrier is that occupants may be averse to changesintheexternalappearanceoftheirhomes(BRE,2008b).Inordertoovercomethis, externalwallinsulationshouldbetargetedatthe45%ofdwellingsthathaverenderandnon masonry natural finishes. It can be incorporated when work to the exterior is desired or necessary,thuseliminatingthebarrierastheworkwillbecarriedoutanyway.Anyadditional costscouldbecoveredbygovernmentorlocalauthoritygrants. Internalinsulationisappliedasarigidinsulationboardorinsulationfittedbetweenstudwork. One of the barriers to internal insulation is the loss of usable floor area, which has more significanceindwellingsunder60m2(BRE,2008b).However,thiswasanissueintheAubert Parkrefurbishmentandwasmostlyovercomebyutilisingnewmaterialsthataremuchthinner than the standard application of 80mm to 120mm of insulation. These high performance materials could be subsidised by grants in order to make them more competitive in comparisonwiththestandardapplication.Themajorbarriertothismeasureistheamountof disruption to the occupants. Realistically this could only be applied when a major refurbishment takes place, or on a room by room basis when redecoration takes place (Impetus Consulting, 2004). Internal wall insulation can also be applied on a DIY basis; this improves its appeal to home owners (Sustainable Energy Ireland, 2005). Internal wall insulationlendsitselftodwellingswithmasonrypointingwheretheoccupantsareaverseto changesintheexternalappearanceoftheirdwellingandinthecaseofflatswherenotallthe occupantsareinagreementofexternalwallinsulation(BRE,2008b). Itshouldthereforebe targetedfortheother55%ofdwellingswheretheoccupantswouldresistanychangetothe externalappearanceoftheirhomes. Thisissomewhatofasimplifiedarrangement,andclearlytheapplicabilityofonemethodof wallinsulationdoesnotprecludeanother.Iftheoccupantisaversetointernaldisruption,but willforegotheundesiredchangeinexternalappearance,thenexternalwallinsulationcould bespecified.Themethodofselectioncouldbeapproachedinthemannerofaflowchartthat represents an algorithm. Under the assumption that either external or internal insulation couldbeappliedinrespectoftheprevioussolutions,6.3milliondwellingscouldbeinsulated (BRE, 2008b), excepting the 300,000 residential buildings listed as architecturally important
42

(Boardman, et al., 2005). Realistically, solid wall insulation would be best if it was incorporatedintootherworksinordertomarginalisetheproblemsstatedpreviously;thisis discussedsubsequently. Occupantdisruptionandoccurringopportunities MidmoorRoadincorporatedtheenergyefficiencymeasuresintoamajorrefurbishmentofthe wholeproperty.Thisisacommonfeatureindemonstrationrefurbishmentprojectsasboth costsanddisruptionarekepttoaminimum(Killip,2008).In200523.9billionwasspenton repair, maintenance and improvement (Department for Business Enterprise and Regulatory Reform, 2007). Work which does not incorporate energy efficiency measures represents a majormissedopportunity,asitisunlikelythatfurthersubstantialrefurbishmentworkwillnot becarriedoutforsometimeafterwards(EST,2006c). Thesenaturallyoccurringopportunitiestoincorporateenergyefficiencymeasuresneedtobe takenadvantageof;theyhavebeennamedtriggerpoints(EST,2008).Triggerpointswiththe potential to deliver CO2 savings are; moving home, building an extension, new kitchen or bathroom, loft conversion, new windows, new heating system and new flooring. These scenarios offer the following advantages; the home owner is already considering work so is receptive, workpeople may already be on site so the disruption is minimal, the cost of improvementwillbelessandthereisscopetoincorporateimprovementsthatwouldnotbe included after the work is complete (EST, 2008). In order to promote the uptake of these measures it is essential that these trigger points are maximised, this can be done by three methods.Firstly,startaprogrammeofpublicengagementtoencouragethepublictosupport technologiesandpolicy.Secondly,modifytheBuildingRegulationstoextendthecoverageof triggers for improving the energy performance of homes in the case of extensions and loft conversions. Finally, increase incentives and awareness raising activitythat targets peoples behaviour(EST,2008). ItemsotherthanthoseincludedintheStandardAssessmentProcedure Thedatapresentedinchapter3:DEMScot:Scotlandsdomesticenergymodelconfirmedthat reductionsofupto70%arepossiblefromsolidwallhousing.However,thesereductionsare basedonSAPitemsonly;thereforeemissionsfromcookingandappliancesarenotincluded. Thepastfourdecadeshaveseenanunprecedentedincreaseintheuseofelectricalappliances
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and time saving devices (EST, 2006d). Although the energy efficiencyof these products has greatly increased, this saving has been outstripped by a massive increase in demand. On average, appliances and cooking account for 21% of total emissions (DCLG, 2007). If items other than SAP items were included in the Aubert Park and Midmoor Road refurbishments, theCO2 reductionswouldbereducedto50%and52%respectivelyifafullrefurbishmentwas implemented. Although energy use for cooking has been declining (Shorrock, Utley, 2003), the increase in appliances is viewed as a serious threat to achieving the Governments CO2 reductiontargets(EST,2006d).However,applianceshaveahighturnoveranditislikelythat they will be replaced 3 to 4 times by 2050 (Boardman, et al., 2005). This presents an opportunityforsavingsasappliancesaretradedgoodsandsavingscanbeimplementedbyEU andUKpolicyinitiatives.Productswithimprovedelectricalefficiencyneedtobebroughtinto themarket;however,thisreliesonstrongpolicyfromtheEUandUK(Boardman,etal.,2005). This could be executed by the UK Government pressing for 25% of the most electrically inefficientproductstoberemovedfromthemarketevery3to5years,luxuryproductswith disproportionatelyhighenergyuse,i.e.patioheaters,shouldbesubjecttoincreasedtax(EST, 2006d).Furthermore,theBuildingRegulationscouldberevisedsothatpropertydevelopers mustinstallthemostefficientappliancesavailable(Boardman,2007). Evaluationofkeybarriers It is clear that cost is a significant barrier to the implementation of energy efficient refurbishmentmeasures.Thischapterhaspresentedthemostviablesolutionstoovercoming this barrier and encouraging the uptake of measures. However, even accounting for reductions in overall costs resulting from market forces, refurbishment measures will still comeatafee,eithertothehomeownerortheGovernmentthathastosubsidisethecost. Theattitudespresentedinthewillingtopaysurveyposeaseverethreattoachievingthe80% target.ItisobviouslyintheGovernmentsbestinteresttotransferasmuchofthecoststothe willingtopaysector.WhattheGovernmentcanorcannotaffordisbeyondtheremitofthis dissertation.However,thecostof refurbishingallsolidwallhousingisasubstantialburden fortheGovernmenttobear.Consequently,themajorUKpoliticalpartieshaveonlypledged funding for the costeffective measures stated in chapter two: the UK housing stock (BBC, 2010).

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Barriersabovethetechnicalfeasibilityandcostofrefurbishmentwillalsoaffectthepotential of solid wall housing to reduced CO2 emissions. The additional three other major barriers otherthancost(solidwallinsulation,occupantdisruptionandopportunitiesanditemsother thanSAP),havebeenaddressedandanappropriatesolutionsuggested.However,forallthe barrierstherewasnoeasyorquickfixsolutionbecausetheyallrequirereinforcementfrom government regulation and policy if they are to be surmounted. Having analysed the remaining barriers to refurbishment, the study will move onto the following chapter where conclusionsandrecommendationswillbepresented.
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Chapterseven:conclusionandrecommendations Conclusion Theaimofthisdissertationwastoevaluatetheproposedsolutionofrefurbishingthebuilding envelopeandheatingsystem,inordertodeterminewhatisrequiredtoachieve80%emission reductions so to answer the question; what role can solid wall housing feasibly play in reducingCO2emissionsby80%? The first objective was to assess the improvement measures that were applied to the two chosen dwellings individually in order to ascertain the applicability of the refurbishment packagetootherdwellingsofthattype.TheoutcomewasthatwiththeexceptionofMVHR, concrete floor insulation and the solid wall insulation in some circumstances, the refurbishmentmeasuresrepresentapackagethatcouldbeappliedtootherdwellingswithout majordisruptionandthereforecouldproducecomparableresults. The second objective was to confirm that the case studies were capable of achieving the reduction in emissions that were advocated. This was carried out by using the DEMScot modelwhichutilisedtheassumptionsandmethodologymadebytheDEMScotteamrelating to occupants behaviour and the use of lights, cooking and hot water. There were minor differencesintheresultsforAubertParkandMidmoorRoad,astheyachieveda2%lowerand a2%to3%higherreductionrespectively,incomparisontotheirSAPassessments.Theresults fromthemodellingprocesssuggestthatitistechnicallyfeasibletoachievetheclaimedlevel ofreductions,providingtheBaxiEcogencandelivertheperformanceitclaims. The third objective was to investigate the main barriers to the refurbishment of solid wall dwellings.Costisoneoftheprimaryfactorsthatlimitthefeasibilityofsolidwallhousingin achieving significant reductions. This was dealt with by exploring the possibility of less comprehensiveimprovementsandconsideringtheValueCarbonfactortherebybridgingthe disincentiveofasignificantcapitalcost.Theresultsfromthisestablishedthatthereisavery cleartippingpointwherethediminishingreturnsareacute.Consequentlypursingapathof alloutrefurbishmentwouldnotnecessarilybeaprudentuseoffundswhenconsideringthe opportunitycostofthefinanceavailable.

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Theissueofcostreductionwasalsoexploredinresponsetoanindicationthathomeowners expect the costs to be heavily subsidised by Government or a Local Authority. A possible solutionwasthatmarketforceswouldbecapableofreducingpricesandthereforeaddressing theissuesofcost.Howevereitherthewillingtopaysectorhadtobetargetedtoinitiatethis, or homes in fuel poverty could be utilised to create a mass market whilst reducing fuel poverty. The overall evidence relating to cost suggests that costs can be reduced by either specifyinglessworkthatachievesahighValueCarbonrating,orbyimprovingthemarketto makerefurbishmentmeasuresmoreeconomic. Some of the wider limitations and issues that reduce the ability of the solid wall stock to achieve CO2 reductions were also considered. For solid wall insulation the solution was to specifythetypeonthebasisoftheoriginalwallfinishorbyanalgorithmicprocess.However, the evidence shows that there is little that can be done about the disruption caused to the occupants from internal wall insulation. The only possible solution is to ensure that on occasions where there is work being carried out or the occupants are in transition, the opportunity is maximised by increasing incentives and awareness, and by making refurbishmentworkscompulsorythroughtheBuildingRegulations. Furthermore,theCO2emissionsproducedbyappliancespresentsaseriousbarriertothe80% reductiontargetastheyarenotincludedintheSAPanalyseswhichcurrentlyratestheenergy performance of dwellings. The evidence suggests that this barrier requires strong policy intervention from the UK Government to reduce the number inefficient appliances, and to ensureonlyefficientapplianceareused. Overall, the objectives have clarified the ability of solid wall housing to contribute to 80% reductions.Theyhaveaimedtoanswerthequestion;whatrolecansolidwallhousingfeasibly playinreducingCO2emissionsby80%?Itcanbeconcludedthattherolesolidwallhousing can play is certainly significant but refurbishment alone will not be enough. Considerable emissionreductionscanbeachievedbyusinginnovativematerialsandtechnology.However, homeownersneedtostartacceptingresponsibilityformakingtheirhomesenergyefficient. Refurbishmentcanbecosteffective;reductionsof50%to53%arepossibleforareasonable expense, and reductions of 65% to 67% are possible if the cost threshold is raised. Nevertheless,refurbishmentmeasuresmustbesupplementedbyothermeanstoachievethe 80%reductiontarget.
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Recommendations Giventheseconclusions,anumberofrecommendationscanbeproposedthataimtoaddress thebarrierspreviouslyhighlightedandtoadvancethisfieldofstudy.Firstly,anappropriate body such as the Carbon Trust carries out a trial on the Baxi Ecogen unit. This technology couldgreatlyassistthedeliveryofthe80%reductiontargetifitcandeliverwhatBaxiclaims. Secondly, a Value Carbon methodology should be developed by the BRE to ensure property developers, housing associations and any other persons that are involved in refurbishment, carry out work that delivers high carbon savings for the lowest cost. This would also encouragetheuptakeofrefurbishments. Thirdly, considerable progress is made regarding the attitudes of the public. This could be through awareness campaigns or by heavily incentivising refurbishment work through financial rebates. The Government needs to dismantle public resistance and progress the refurbishmentmarketfromtheresearchstagetomassadoption. Fourthly, a swift and robust amendment of policy and regulation is implemented by the UK Government. Primarily in the Building Regulations so that the opportunities to improve the energyperformanceofdwellingsisnotlostwhenrenovationandmaintenanceiscarriedout. This policy should encompass white goods and appliances to ensure that the efforts to improveenergyperformanceofthebuildingfabricandheatingsystemarenotoffsetbythe demand for electronics and appliances; this may involve working with the manufacturers themselves. Finally,havingestablishedthatrefurbishmentofsolidwall housingwillnotachievethe80% reduction target; extensive research is carried out that investigates how and to what extent solidwallhousingcanbesupplementedbyothermeanssothatanoverallstrategyfordealing withHardtotreatdwellingscanbespecified.
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