Analyzing The Trade Flows For Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) Arshpreet Singh*,

Rajesh Dhania*, Rohit Upasani* and Somesh K Mathur**

Abstract:
This paper attempts to investigate the bilateral trade flows between the countries of BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa by analyzing various trade flow indices namely Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), Trade Intensity, Trade Complementarity, Export Share, Market Share, Regional Orientation and Competitiveness through data collection and rigorous evaluation of the trade flow charts. The time period for which the trade indicators have been calculated is 2001-2010. The data for the calculation of these trade indices has been collected from World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS) Database and UNESCAP. A broad definition of a trade indicator is that it is an index or a ratio that can be used to describe and assess the state of trade flows and trade patterns of a particular economy or economies and can be used to monitor these flows and patterns over time or across economies/regions. BRIC still remains a non-formal group but there are tendencies for further cooperation in various fields. We are going to discuss the idea of forming BRICS as a union under a preferential trading agreement (PTA) and its implications for India. Thus, we discuss the methodology for preparing a negative list (In an international agreement, a list of those items, entities, products, etc. to which the agreement will not apply, the commitment being to apply the agreement to everything else) of trade that is the items which if imported would result in a loss in welfare for both the parties under the agreement mainly focused on India. Our analysis shows that there is a general increase in the values of almost all the indices for most of the countries in the BRICS group. This advocates the setting up of a preferential trading agreement (PTA) between the BRICS countries so that the area thrives as a major economic power in context of the rest of the world. Further, the RCA indices for various commodities lead to the creation of negative lists of trade for all the BRICS countries.

Keywords: BRICS, Revealed Comparative Advantage, Trade Intensity, Trade Complementarity, Export Share, Market Share, Regional Orientation, Competitiveness, WITS, UNESCAP, Preferential Trading Agreement

Introduction:
It has been nearly ten years since the analysts of Goldman Sachs introduced the forecast for BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) emerging markets and pointed out their potential for future economic growth. It is obvious that BRIC countries have been increasing their economic as well as geopolitical power especially after the world economic recession since their economies recovered at a much faster rate than the developed countries. Nevertheless, each of the countries aims to remain economic/political power, at least regionally, thus making it difficult to create close relations. BRIC still remains a non-formal group but there are arising tendencies for further cooperation in various fields already stimulated by three summits. BRICs rapid economic growth is based on their specialization enhanced by large ** Assistant Professor, Department of Humanities and Social Sciences, IIT Kanpur * Undergraduate Student, IIT Kanpur

endowments of factors of production with a comparative advantage which combined could spur their mutual cooperation and development. BRIC economies are considered highly integrated in global trade. Their trade with the world has increased more than five times since 1999 and their share of world trade in the past decade nearly doubled, currently being around 14%. Moreover, BRIC to BRIC annual growth rate of trade is about 32%. It is a mark of the shift in the global economic power away from the G7 economies in terms of the international trade and policies. Thus this demographic diversification would generate superior risk-adjusted returns for long-term global economy thus capturing emerging markets of Asia, Eastern Europe and Latin America.

INDIAS RISING GROWTH POTENTIAL

From a long-term perspective, the post-industrial economic decline of India (and China) is a historical aberration, driven to some extent by a lack of openness. After independence in 1947, India followed inward-looking and stateinterventionist policies that shackled the economy through regulations, and severely restricted trade and economic freedom. The result was decades of low growth. Since 2003, India has been one of the fastest-growing major economies, leading to rapid increases in per capita income, demand and integration with the global economy this is due to the structural increase in productivity (by which we mean total factor productivity, or the manner in which all inputs are combined to achieve more output) has surged. For the economy to sustain these high rates, the key underlying assumption is that the government will continue to implement growth-supportive policies. A turnaround in manufacturing productivity since 2003 has been crucial. The proximate cause is the increase in efficiency of privatesector firms in the face of growing competition. The gradual opening up of the economy introduced a competitive dynamic, which forced the private sector to restructure during the relative slowdown in growth and corporate profitability during 1997-2002. The re-allocation of land, capital and especially labour from low-productivity agriculture to high-productivity industry and services is an essential dynamic behind sustained productivity growth. Critical to sustaining growth: Financial deepening, Openness to trade, Rural-to-urban migration, Capital deepening, education and environment.

Economists use statistical data and indicators in all branches of economics. Sometimes indicators are used as leading indicators (when they have predictive power), sometimes to describe what has happened in the past (lagging indicators). Indicators are the result of using statistical data and as such are the most available, or often the only available, input for so-called evidence-based policy making. Trade indicators are used in the analysis of international or foreign trade, at the national, regional or global level. Indicators are grouped in the following categories:

Trade and economy (trade dependence index, marginal propensity to import, import penetration, export propensity, trade per capita). Trade performance (growth rate of trade (exports/imports), normalized trade balance, export/import coverage). Direction of trade (trade intensity, intra-regional trade shares, trade entropy). Sectoral structure of trade (major export category, index of export diversification, revealed comparative advantage, intra-industry trade, trade overlap, complementarity index, export similarity index, competitiveness index). Protection (average applied/bound tariffs, weighted average tariffs, dispersion of tariffs, effective rates of protection).

Review of Literature:
BRICs was coined by Jim ONeil in the global Economics Paper Building Better Global economies BRICs published on November 30, 2001 published by Goldman Sachs Inc. This shows the rise in the equity market and a combined 15% GDP of the global economy contributed by the BRICs. A work on the rise in the growth potential of India indicates a chance for Indias debt capital market. The earlier state-interventionists policies have now given way to openness with globalization leading to structural increase due to productivity growth thus increasing the world demand growth. Of greatest relevance to the data collection is the work done by Mia Mikic and John Gilbert. This is a handbook of commonly used trade indicators and indices. It lists a whole variety of trade indicators carrying varied utilities and also discusses how to calculate such indicators. It discusses the relevance of these widely used indices in the process of policy making. Another paper from Goldman Sachs titled Dreaming With BRICs: The Path to 2050 by DominicWilson and Roopa Purushothaman maps out GDP growth, income per capita and currency movements in the BRICs economies until 2050. Another paper in this regard is written by Dominic Wilson, Alex L. Kelston and Swarnali Ahmed titled 'Is this BRIC's Decade?. The last decade saw the BRICs make their mark on the global economic landscape. Over the past 10 years they have contributed over a third of world GDP growth and grown from one-sixth of the world economy to almost a quarter (in PPP terms). Looking forward to the coming decade, we expect this trend to continue and become even more pronounced. Trade adjustment study done by Veena Jha gives a broad overview of trade reforms based on an evaluation of various macroeconomic factors, these study examines the impact of trade liberalization on a number of performance indicators in the manufacturing sector, such as output, labour productivity, total factor productivity, employment and wages .

The paper on Trade Cooperation Indicators: Development of BRIC Bilateral Trade Flows by Tereza De Castro studies the evolution of trade intensity among BRIC within the period 1995-2009. Calculations are based on the trade intensity index as well as with a closer look at the trade complementary index. Trade in Goods and Services between the EU and the BRICs, written by Peter Havlik, Olga Pindyuk and Roman Stllinger, deals with the analysis of the global position of the EU and the BRICs in world trade (using the IMF DOT and UN COMTRADE databases) and moves subsequently to a more detailed analysis of regional (individual EU countries trade with the BRICs), commodity and industry-specific trade specialization patterns, using the Eurostat Comext database. Peter Havlik and Roman Stllinger in their paper, EUs trade with the BRICs and competitiveness challenges, analyze the external trade in goods between the EU and the BRICs. We start with the global position of the EU and the

BRICs in world trade, and move subsequently to a more detailed analysis of regional, commodity and industryspecific specialization patterns of EU-BRICs trade.

Methodology:
We have calculated some of the indicators pertaining to the regional trade between the BRICS countries i.e. Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. The measures of changing trend patterns in trade among BRIC countries are applied. Data series from 2001 to 2009 were selected for measurement of Trade indices. These trade indicators would inform us on the level of and changes in the regional pattern or direction of trade flows. Also, these indicators reflect directly or indirectly the competitive ability of a countrys or regions economic sectors or activities. The following trade indicators so as to accomplish our targets: Revealed Comparative Advantage Trade Complementarity Trade Intensity Export Share Regional Market Share Competitiveness Regional Orientation Index

Revealed Comparative Advantage Revealed comparative advantage indices (RCA) use the trade pattern to identify the sectors in which an economy has a comparative advantage, by comparing the country of interests trade profile with the world average. The RCA index is defined as the ratio of the share of a countrys total exports of the commodity of interest in the total exports and the share of world exports of the same commodity in total world exports.

Where s is the country of interest, d and w are the set of all countries in the world, i is the sector of interest, x is the commodity export flow and X is the total export flow. Trade Complementarity The complementarity index measures the degree to which the export pattern of one country matches the import pattern of another. A high degree of complementarity is assumed to indicate more favourable prospects for a successful trade arrangement. Changes over time may tell us whether the trade profiles are becoming more or less compatible. The sum of the absolute value of the difference between the import category shares and the export shares of the countries under study, divided by two. The index is converted to percentage form.

Where d is the importing country of interest, s is the exporting country of interest, w is the set of all countries in the world, i is the set of industries, x is the commodity export flow, X is the total export flow, m the commodity import flow, and M the total import flow. Trade Intensity This index tells us whether or not a region exports more (as a percentage) to a given destination than the world does on average. The trade intensity statistic is the ratio of two export shares. The numerator is the share of the destination of interest in the exports of the region under study. The denominator is the share of the destination of interest in the exports of the world as a whole.

Where s is the set of countries in the source, d is the destination, w and y represent the countries in the world, and X is the bilateral flow of total exports. Export Share The export share tells us how important a particular export partner is in terms of the overall export profile of an economy. Changes in the export share over time may indicate that the economies in question are becoming more integrated. The export share is the percentage of exports from the region under study (the source) to the region of interest (the destination) in the total exports of the source region.

Where s is the set of countries in the source, d is the set of countries in the destination, w is the set of countries in the world, and X is the bilateral total export flow. Regional Market Share The regional market share statistic tells us the relative importance of the members of a trade bloc in the intraregional trade of the bloc. It is defined as the proportion of total exports of a given member(s) of a trading bloc to other members of the bloc, in the total intra-regional exports of the bloc.

Where s is the set of source countries under study, b and d are the set of members of the trade bloc under study (the destinations), and X is the bilateral flow of export from the source to the destination.

Competitiveness Competitiveness in trade is broadly defined as the capacity of an industry to increase its share in international markets at the expense of its rivals. It is the share of total exports of a given product from the region under study in total world exports of the same product.

Where s is the country of interest, d and w are the set of all countries in the world, I is the sector of interest, and x is the commodity export flow. In words, it is the share of country ss exports of good i in the total world exports of good i. Regional Orientation The regional orientation index tells us whether exports of a particular product from the region under study to a given destination are greater than exports of the same product to other destinations. It is the ratio of the share of a countrys exports of a given product to the region of interest in total exports to the region and the share of exports of the product to other countries in total exports to other countries.

Where s is the country of interest, d is the set of countries in the regional bloc, w is the set of all countries not in the bloc, i is the sector of interest, x is the commodity export flow, and X is the total export flow.

Data Sources:
The United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database (COMTRADE), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Direction of Trade statistics, the World Trade Database (WTD) maintained by Statistics Canada, and the GTAP database from Purdue University, WITS (World Integrated Trade Solution) by the World Bank (WB), the United Nations Statistical Division (UNSD), the World Trade Organisation (WTO), the UNCTAD Handbook of Statistics, the International Trade Centre (ITC).

Data Analysis:
Analysis for RCA

Fig 1.1 Arms and ammunition

12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 RCA(Brazil) RCA(India) RCA(South Africa) RCA(China) RCA(Russia) 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0

Fig 1.2 Vehicles other than railways, tramways etc

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 RCA(Brazil) RCA(India) RCA(South Africa) RCA(China) RCA(Russia)

From Fig 1.1, we can see that RCA of Russia in arms and ammunition for the year 1999, 2000 was 9.14, 9.34 respectively but it remained low (below 1) for the years 2001-2010. South Africa has a comparative advantage over other countries but it is gradually falling. On the other hand, Brazils RCA has been constantly rising over the past four years. Fig 1.2 shows that the RCA of India has more than doubled over the last decade. As we can see, South Africa and Brazil have a visible comparative advantage over the other countries of the group. China, on the other hand, has a very low RCA index but it has an RCA index above 2.9 for the years 1998-2007 for the production of railway, tramway, locomotives and parts.

Fig 1.3 Coffee, Tea, Mati and Spices

14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 RCA(Brazil) RCA(India) RCA(South Africa) RCA(China) RCA(Russia)

Fig 1.4 Cotton

10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 RCA(Brazil) RCA(India) RCA(South Africa) RCA(China) RCA(Russia)

As depicted by Fig 1.3, Brazils RCA has remained almost the same for this period i.e. 12. India on the other hand has witnessed a constant decline in its RCA index for the same time period from 10.1 in 2001 to 3.8 in 2009.

Fig 1.4, on the other hand conveys that India, China and Brazil all have an RCA index above 1. India has a very high revealed comparative advantage ranging between 6 and 9.

Fig 1.5 Pharmaceutical products

1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 RCA(Brazil) RCA(India) RCA(South Africa) RCA(China) RCA(Russia) 12 10 8 6 4 2 0

Fig 1.6 Pearls, precious stones, metals

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 RCA(Brazil) RCA(India) RCA(South Africa) RCA(China) RCA(Russia)

From Fig 1.5, India has a comparative advantage in the production of drugs and pharmaceutical products over the other countries in BRICS although its less than the index value of 1. From Fig 1.6, South Africa and India have a relative comparative advantage over the other countries with their RCA indices ranging between 6 and 10 over the time period ranging between 2001 and 2010.

Fig 1.7 Iron and steel

6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 RCA(Brazil) RCA(India) RCA(South Africa) RCA(China) RCA(Russia) 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0

Fig 1.8 Mineral fuels, oils and distillation products

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 RCA(Brazil) RCA(India) RCA(South Africa) RCA(China) RCA(Russia)

Fig 1.7 clearly shows that all the countries in BRICS excluding china have RCA indices above 1. South Africa enjoys a greater advantage over the others with an RCA index around 4. India has maintained an RCA index value of just above 1 for this time period.

Fig 1.8 conveys the fact that Brazil has the greatest RCA index among these countries with an index value above 5 for most of these years. India has expanded its RCA index to above 1 for the years 2006-2009.

Fig 1.9 Nuclear reactors, boilers, machinery

2 1.5

Fig 1.10 Organic chemicals

2 1.5 1

1 0.5 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 RCA(Brazil) RCA(India) RCA(South Africa) RCA(China) RCA(Russia) 0.5 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 RCA(Brazil) RCA(India) RCA(South Africa) RCA(China) RCA(Russia)

From Fig 1.9, China has the highest RCA index among the BRICS countries. It has enjoyed a constant increase in the RCA index value over the past decade. Its RCA index value has almost doubled from 0.8 in 2001 to 1.5 in 2010. Fig 1.10, on the other hand, shows that India is the only country in the group with an RCA index value above 1 and it has had gradual growth in this index value for almost all the years.

Fig 1.11 Rubber and articles thereof

1.5 1 0.5 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 RCA(Brazil) RCA(India) RCA(South Africa) RCA(China) RCA(Russia) 25 20 15 10 5 0

Fig 1.12 Sugars and sugar confectionary

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 RCA(Brazil) RCA(India) RCA(South Africa) RCA(China) RCA(Russia)

From Fig 1.11, Brazil is the only country with an RCA index above 1 but it is declining continuously over the years. While India had an index value near 1 for the years 2001-2006, it has since witnessed a decreasing trend with the index falling to 0.7 for the year 2009. On the other hand China has had a smooth increase in its RCA index value from 0.6 in 2001 to 0.9 in 2009.

From Fig 1.12, Brazil and South Africa have their RCA indices above 1 for the whole period between 2001 and 2010. Brazil has an average RCA index greater than 15 for the present time period while South Africa has an RCA index ranging between 2.3 to 4.9. Excluding the years 2004, 2005 and 2009, India has had an average RCA index around 3.

Fig 1.13 Tobacco

8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 RCA(Brazil) RCA(India) RCA(South Africa) RCA(China) RCA(Russia) 6 5 4 3 2 1 0

Fig 1.14 Toys, games, sports requisites

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 RCA(Brazil) RCA(India) RCA(South Africa) RCA(China) RCA(Russia)

Fig 1.13 suggests that Brazil, India and South Africa have their RCA indices above 1. Brazil has witnessed a gradual increase in its RCA index over the past decade. Fig 1.14 shows that China has a much higher RCA index in this category which ranges between 3.5 and 5. However, its index has been declining continuously over the past ten years. Analysis for Trade Complementarity

Fig 2.1 Brazil

45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Partner(China) Partner(Russia) Partner(India) Partner(South Africa) 15 10 5 0 40 35 30 25 20

Fig 2.2 China

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Partner(Brazil) Partner(Russia) Partner(India) Partner(South Africa)

Fig 2.1 shows that Brazil has a high degree of complementarity with China and it has seen a continuous rise in its value over the past decade. The level of complementarity of Brazil has seen an increase with all the countries as compared to the levels prevailing in 2001. While Fig 2.2 shows that China has a high trade complementarity level with Brazil. The complementarity levels for China with Brazil and India have seen a gradual rise over the years. Chinas complementarity with Russia shows a general decline from the levels in 2001 while its complementarity with South Africa has witnessed a general increase in the past few years.

Fig 2.3 India

50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Partner(Brazil) Partner(Russia) Partner(China) Partner(South Africa) 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0

Fig 2.4 Russia

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Partner(Brazil) Partner(India) Partner(China) Partner(South Africa)

Fig 2.3 shows that Indias complementarity level with China has seen a major rise in the past decade increasing from its value of 32.5 % in 2001 to 40.7 % in 2009. India had achieved a high degree of complementarity with Russia during the period between 2003 and 2006 with its value touching 46 % in 2006. Afterwards, it has seen a sharp decline in the complementarity percentage to as low as 36 % in 2009. India had previously low levels of complementarity with Brazil and South Africa but their degrees have been rising over time. On the other hand, Fig 2.4 shows that Russia has a high level of complementarity with China which has been increasing continuously over the last decade. Russia has shown a general decline in its degrees of complementarity with Brazil and South Africa over the years. Russias complementarity with India, although low, indicates a gradual rise in its level from 2001 to 2009.

Fig 2.5 South Africa

45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Partner(Brazil) Partner(India) Partner(China) Partner(Russia)

Meanwhile, Fig 2.5 suggests that South Africa has a high degree of complementarity with China with its value depicting a continuous increase since 2001. We also see a continuous growth in the complementarity level of South Africa with India from 2001 to 2009. Its complementarity percentage with Brazil which touched a value of 42.3 % in 2006, has witnessed a constant fall since then. South Africas complementarity with Russia has more or less remained the same with 2006s level of 32.2 % being the exception. Analysis for Trade Intensity

Fig 3.1 Brazil

1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Partner(China) Partner(Russia) Partner(India) Partner(South Africa) 2 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0

Fig 3.2 China

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Partner(Brazil) Partner(Russia) Partner(India) Partner(South Africa)

Fig 3.1 shows that the intensity of trade with India is maximal in the BRICS nations and shows a constant increase from 2001-2010. China, Russia and South Africa have moderate intensities which do not show large variations but in the years of recession the trade intensities have increased in comparison to trade earlier.

Fig 3.2 shows a high intensity for trade with Brazil and South Africa in 2009 from a constant increase in the latter years. Russia had a high trade intensity value with China in the early years of the decade but has fallen from therein while with India the trade intensity has remained constant on an average in this decade.

Fig 3.3 India

2.5 1.8 1.6 2 1.4 1.2 1.5 1 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.2 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Partner(Brazil) Partner(Russia) Partner(China) Partner(South Africa) 0

Fig 3.4 Russia

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Partner(Brazil) Partner(India) Partner(China) Partner(South Africa)

Fig 3.3 indicates that the Trade intensity with Russia was high in the early years of the decade but that has been neutralized in years to come. The trade intensity is highest with South Africa in the BRICS nations and is now constant with China in the years of 2008-2010. However the intensity had declined in the years of recession for all the countries. Fig 3.4 suggests that the trade intensities with all the countries show a decline from 2001-2010. In the early years the trade had been maximized with India and Brazil. The trade with South Africa is almost negligible showing the averseness between the nations and wiling to explore elsewhere in the economies.

Fig 3.5 South Africa

3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Partner(Brazil) Partner(India) Partner(China) Partner(Russia)

Fig 3.5 suggests that India has maintained a High level of trade intensity with South Africa which maximized in 2006 but due to recession it shows a decline in the coming years. The intensity is steadily increasing for the case of China and we could predict an increase in the trade share of these trading partners. While the intensity is almost negligible for the case of Russia indicating that Russia explores other areas of world economy far more than the African nations. Analysis for Market Share

Fig 4.1 Brazil

2 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 MS China MS India MS Russia MS South Africa 2 0 6 4 14 12 10 8

Fig 4.2 China

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 MS Brazil MS India MS Russia MS South Africa

Fig 4.1 shows that India has shown a significant growth from almost nothing to 1.8 % from 2001 2008 but a little decline during 2008-2010. South Africa showed a significant decline in market share initially but in 2004 it also started improving its share. China had maintained an increasing growth from 0.6% to 1.3 % while Russia hardly showed any improvement. Fig 4.2 indicates that Brazil, India and South Africa show a positive increase in market share with china from 2% to 10%. However, Russia maintained a constant market share of 6% with China.

Fig 4.3 India

4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 MS Brazil MS China MS Russia MS South Africa 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0

Fig 4.4 Russia

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 MS Brazil MS china MS India MS South Africa

Fig 4.3 suggests that India has shown a great market share with South Africa which rises from 1.5 to 3.8 during 2000-2010 but in an uneven manner. Russia also increases its market share significantly in initial years but later shows a heavy decline during 2003 to 2007 probably due to recession. However, China shows a continuous improvement in market share during whole decade. Brazils market share remained almost constant but rapidly improves from 2008-2010. From Fig 4.4, we can infer that Brazil and China both had significant market share with Russia during this decade. Unfortunately, India shows a continuous decline in market share from 2% to 0.5%. South Africa had almost negligible market share with Russia during 2000-2010.

Fig 4.5 South Africa

2 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 MS Brazil MS China MS India MS Russia

From Fig 4.5, India shows a quite significant growth in market share in earlier years but later, probably due to recession, it also declines in 2006-2010. Brazil and China maintained a constant market share and stayed where they were in earlier years. Russia had almost negligible market share with South Africa during whole decade. Analysis for Export Share

Fig 5.1 Brazil

14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2000 ES South Africa ES China 2 ES India 1.5 ES Russia 1 0.5 0 2000 3 2.5

Fig 5.2 China

ES Brazil ES India ES Russia ES South Africa

2005

2010

2015

2005

2010

2015

From Fig 5.1, Brazils export share with China has also increased thrice from 4% to 12% but it has significantly increased in last 2 years. Then again, with other BRICS nations, it again remained constant. Fig 5.2 indicates that among all BRICS Nations, export share of China is highest with Brazil. But it has increased in an uneven manner. Export share with Russia, India and South Africa has remained constant during last decade.

Fig 5.3 India

14 12 10 Axis Title 8 6 4 2 0 2000 ES Russia ES South Africa 2005 2010 2015 6 4 2 0 2000 ES Brazil ES China 14 12 10 8

Fig 5.4 Russia

ES Brazil ES China ES India ES South Africa

Axis Title

2005

2010

2015

Fig 5.3 suggests that the Export Share of India in Brazil has increased more than double in the last decade. Similarly with China, it is increasing. However, unlike Brazil and China, Indias export share remained almost constant with Russia and South Africa during 2000-2010. Fig 5.4 indicates that the Export share of Russia with Brazil has been tripled rising from 4% to 12% during the time period of 2000-2010. While with India, South Africa and China, it almost remained same.

Fig 5.5 South Africa

14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2000 ES Brazil ES China ES India ES South Africa

2005

2010

2015

Fig 5.5 shows that with Brazil, its Export Share has gone up from 4% to 12%. However, it is almost constant with China, India and Russia.

Brazil TRADE COMPLEMENTARITY Brazil --------

China

India

Russia

South Africa

High TC with a continuous rise

Rise in TC as compared to values in 2001

Rise in TC as compared to values in 2001

Rise in TC as compared to values in 2001

China

High TC with a gradual rise

--------

Gradual Rise

General decline

General increase in the latter years. Low levels but have shown an increase in later years General decline

India

Low levels but have shown an increase in later years General decline

Major rise in the past decade

---------

Rise till 2006 decline later on

Russia

High TC with a gradual increase Continuous increase since 2001

Although Low shows a gradual rise Gradual Growth

---------

South Africa

Constant Fall since 2006-10

More or less remained the same.

---------

TRADE INTENSITY Brazil

Brazil --------

China Moderate Intensity which does not show large variations also in recession ----------

India Constant Increase and maximal among BRICS Nations. Constant on an average from 2001-10 ----------

Russia Moderate Intensity which does not show large variations also in recession Initially High TI now steep decline High TI earlier now neutralized -----------

South Africa Moderate Intensity which does not show large variations also in recession High TI with a steady increase Maximal among BRICS nations Almost negligible ---------

China

High TI with a steady increase Decline in the years of recession Decline

India

Russia

South Africa

Variable Intensity

Constant on average in 2008-10 Maximized in the early years now declining Steady Increase

Maximized in the early years now declining High Level TI maximized in year 2006

Almost Negligible

MARKET SHARE Brazil

Brazil -----------

China Increasing growth

India Significant increase in MS

Russia Hardly any significance

South Africa Initial decline but from 2004 it showed an increase Steady increase

China

Steady increase

-------

Steady increase

India

Russia South Africa

MS almost constant but rapid increase from 2008-10 Significant MS Maintained a constant MS

Continuous improvement in the whole decade Significant MS Maintained a constant MS

-------

Constant market share of 6% Sharp decline during 20032007 -------Almost negligible

Variable increase

Continuous decline in MS Quite significant growth in the earlier years but later declined

Almost negligible --------------

EXPORT SHARE Brazil

Brazil ------

China Significant increase in 2009-10 ----------

India Almost Invariant Almost Invariant

Russia Almost Invariant Almost Invariant

South Africa Almost Invariant Almost Invariant

China

India

Russia South Africa

Maximal among BRICS nations but increase in uneven manner More than double increase in ES Tripled in the time period Tripled in the given period

Gradual Increase Almost Invariant Almost Invariant

------

Almost Invariant Almost Invariant

Almost constant from 2000-10 ------Almost Invariant

Almost constant from 2000-10 Invariant ----------

Negative list of imports with RCA as the only parameter The mechanism used is: For a particular commodity, if the RCA is maximum for a country and is >1, then the country should not trade that particular good in this block/region and if RCA is maximum for a country but <1 then the whole block/region must export the commodity from ROW and not from internal trade.

Brazil Arms and ammunition Coffee, Tea, Mati and Spices Cotton

China Cotton

India Organic Chemicals

Russia Pharmaceutical Products Iron and steel

South Africa Pearls, precious stones, metals Iron and steel

Pharmaceutical Products Nuclear reactors, boilers etc. Toys

Coffee, Tea, Mati and Spices Iron and steel

Mineral fuels

Vehicles other than railway Pharmaceutical products Arms and ammunition

Pharmaceutical products Iron and steel Rubber and articles thereof Sugars and sugar confectionary Tobacco

Pearls, precious stones, metals Cotton Pharmaceutical products

Mineral fuels, oils, distillation products

Hypothesis:
These trade indicators when analyzed collectively would help us to predict whether a preferential trading agreement (PTA) between the BRICS countries would be beneficial for the region. This will generally lead to a net positive change in the net welfare of the country and will lead to a net gain for the region/bloc as a whole.

Conclusions:
Our analysis of all the trade indices show that there is a general increase in the values of almost all the indices for the majority of the countries in the BRICS group. This advocates the setting up of a Preferential Trade Agreement (PTA) between the BRICS countries so that the area thrives as a major economic power in context of the rest of the world. The Trade Complementarity and Trade Intensity indices show an increasing trend in the past decade for almost all the countries in the BRICS bloc with Russia being the prime exception. The Market Shares and Export Shares depict rising trends for all the BRIS nations suggesting greater trade in the region as a whole. The RCA indices for the various commodities show that Brazil has a comparative advantage over the countries in a major of the goods. This is because Brazil is abundant in a wide range of resources which is probably the major reason for its significance to the BRICS bloc. Russia has become averse to trade with the other BRICS nations in the latter years of the decade to achieve macroeconomic stability and for economic integration. Russia lays great importance to its trade with the EU (European Union) which may be the reason for its lower levels of trade with other BRICS countries. Also the trade between Russia and South Africa is negligible.

References:

Kowitt, Beth, "For Mr. BRIC, nations meeting a milestone", CNNMoney.com. , June 17, 2009 Wilson, D. and Purushothaman, R., Global Economics Paper No. 99, Dreaming with BRICs, Goldman Sachs Research Paper, October 1, 2003 ONeill, J., Global Economics Paper 134, How Solid Are the BRICs?, Goldman Sachs Research Paper, December 1, 2005 ONeill, J., BRICs and beyond, Goldman Sachs Global Economic Research, November 23, 2007 Lakshman, N., BRICS open revolt against European grip on IMF, The Hindu, May 26, 2011 Mikic, M. and Gilbert, J. Trade Statistics in Policymaking A handbook of commonly used trade indices and indicators, UNESCAP, 2009 Tereza De Castro Trade Cooperation Indicators: Development of BRIC Bilateral Trade Flows Peter Havlik, Olga Pindyuk and Roman Stllinger Trade in Goods and Services between the EU and the BRICs using the IMF DOT and UN COMTRADE databases Batra A., Khan Zeba Revealed Comparative Advantage: An analysis for India and China Working Paper No. 168 Havlik P., Stollinger R. EUs trade with the BRICs and competitiveness challenges-The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw), Austria

Appendix:
Trade Intensity Year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Year South Africa 2001 2002 2003 2004 Partner(China) 0.4828 0.5194 0.6619 0.8191 0.7858 0.8879 0.9746 1.1235 1.0457 Partner(Brazil) 1.5942 1.6882 1.4673 1.0951 1.4212 1.31 1.0102 0.9306 1.0143 Partner(Brazil) 0.9195 1.0215 1.2659 1.0753 1.0486 1.0648 1.1411 1.4304 1.8867 Partner(Brazil) 0.6695 1.3789 0.8107 0.7124 0.8112 0.5256 0.4116 0.3554 1.282 Partner(Brazil) 1.4004 1.5687 1.7357 1.7546 Partner(India) 0.4996 0.8314 0.8851 0.9429 1.1987 1.4409 1.3584 1.5273 0.8972 Partner(China) 0.8584 0.8809 0.9852 0.9792 1.0012 0.8566 1.0143 0.9152 0.7885 Partner(India) 0.5924 0.7487 0.884 1.0315 1.3017 1.1281 1.1095 0.958 0.8387 Partner(China) 0.9741 1.0458 0.8177 1.0559 0.9907 1.1608 1.3607 1.4087 1.418 Partner(China) 0.7585 0.7981 0.8016 0.8137 Partner(Russia) 0.182 0.2486 0.2601 0.2685 0.3111 0.2809 0.3346 0.3727 0.3194 Partner(India) 1.6125 1.2006 0.8399 0.531 0.406 0.3658 0.2747 0.2374 0.2951 Partner(Russia) 1.5787 1.5694 1.2629 1.063 0.9826 0.9135 0.7342 0.78 0.7896 Partner(Russia) 1.5339 1.9243 2.1936 1.4541 0.8098 0.749 0.5944 0.7132 1.1299 Partner(India) 1.4332 1.8613 1.3631 1.9212 Partner(South Africa) 0.9938 0.8863 0.7575 0.8036 0.8387 0.8904 0.847 0.7618 0.5876 Partner(South Africa) 0.0958 0.1481 0.1702 0.1555 0.0862 0.106 0.1022 0.13 0.1792 Partner(South Africa) 0.4999 0.4781 0.5745 0.5009 0.5296 0.7001 1.1106 1.0057 1.505 Partner(South Africa) 1.9401 1.943 1.2883 1.4867 2.1044 1.149 1.4548 1.9665 2.2048 Partner(Russia) 0.0113 0.0747 0.009 0.0082

Brazil

Russia

China

India

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

1.7327 1.5384 1.6276 1.4116 1.4196

0.7521 0.8627 0.9077 0.9591 1.0568

2.0957 2.5046 2.1712 2.1721 1.9114

0.0157 0.0095 0.0061 0.0137 0.1116

Trade Complementarity Year Partner(China) 2001 32.8973 2002 30.871 2003 31.9192 Brazil 2004 33.8015 2005 34.4468 2006 35.3968 2007 36.3315 2008 38.076 2009 39.5163 Year Partner(Brazil) 2001 31.8023 2002 30.4556 2003 32.2153 China 2004 32.6807 2005 33.6105 2006 34.5206 2007 32.6887 2008 35.6993 2009 34.438 Year Partner(Brazil) 2001 31.085 2002 28.9788 2003 28.5459 India 2004 30.0829 2005 31.5816 2006 34.8956 2007 34.1124 2008 34.8423 2009 35.1724 Year Partner(Brazil) 2001 37.3274 2002 35.3808 2003 35.5521 Russia 2004 34.9892 2005 36.2309 2006 36.4685 2007 33.7476 2008 32.6104 2009 32.6223 Year Partner(Brazil) 2001 38.278

Partner(India) 27.4787 28.3523 26.8752 26.9469 28.1556 29.2046 28.3562 29.7917 31.3469 Partner(India) 26.2255 25.6119 25.1374 25.9649 26.5132 27.2962 25.8702 27.4297 27.7591 Partner(China) 32.5306 31.1566 30.8115 34.876 31.9041 33.346 36.0989 37.8932 40.6502 Partner(China) 36.1942 36.3617 38.4662 39.5368 40.7391 40.5035 42.0531 41.7331 42.1393 Partner(China) 37.4768

Partner(Russia) 27.2286 30.8339 31.0079 28.2669 27.9087 36.9739 30.1334 31.1095 29.3847 Partner(Russia) 26.2516 33.7057 27.0686 26.1534 30.7188 31.9246 23.7027 24.9479 24.4222 Partner(Russia) 36.0254 40.2582 44.9686 37.2854 42.7675 45.9616 34.0896 35.276 35.8512 Partner(India) 28.535 26.7185 27.7579 27.7111 27.8548 28.2474 27.7053 28.5519 30.9268 Partner(India) 29.1753

Partner(South Africa) 26.8732 28.6313 27.0098 24.1266 26.0303 26.0209 28.5126 28.0926 29.3739 Partner(South Africa) 24.2731 25.7204 24.1985 23.3314 23.3647 24.4783 26.3977 24.3558 25.7469 Partner(South Africa) 27.927 27.968 26.9308 29.4131 31.093 29.8845 31.2695 31.9013 32.7923 Partner(South Africa) 29.4421 31.4299 28.4951 27.301 26.7928 27.9644 25.4284 29.221 27.5738 Partner(Russia) 25.2397

South Africa

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

35.9131 36.3791 36.8232 41.2283 42.3042 37.7256 36.6313 35.6103

35.587 35.1608 37.7478 37.8053 38.9615 40.4502 41.0326 42.4349

28.2518 28.6214 29.5545 30.195 30.6312 30.9393 31.5879 34.3168

25.0738 27.6692 22.8659 24.2716 34.2492 23.5414 25.1242 25.0138

Market Share Year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 MS China 0.5077 0.4504 0.4891 0.6192 0.6335 0.7617 0.9343 1.3146 1.1749 MS Brazil 3.2634 4.1711 6.1928 5.6288 5.7665 6.0972 6.6909 8.2868 13.1971 MS Brazil 0.4897 1.0817 0.7564 0.675 0.96 0.6813 0.5962 0.5569 2.2321 MS Brazil 1.8917 2.0724 2.0494 1.715 2.4614 2.4987 2.3289 2.3507 MS India 0.5253 0.7209 0.654 0.7128 0.9664 1.2361 1.3021 1.7871 1.0081 MS India 2.1025 3.0572 4.3247 5.3996 7.1585 6.4597 6.5059 5.5504 5.8666 MS China 0.7125 0.8204 0.7629 1.0005 1.1725 1.5049 1.9713 2.2077 2.4688 MS china 1.0186 1.0813 1.376 1.5334 1.7339 1.634 2.3384 2.3119 MS Russia 0.1914 0.2156 0.1922 0.203 0.2508 0.241 0.3207 0.4361 0.3589 MS Russia 5.6034 6.4081 6.1783 5.5645 5.4039 5.231 4.3054 4.5187 5.5233 MS Russia 1.1219 1.5095 2.0466 1.3778 0.9584 0.971 0.8612 1.1178 1.9672 MS India 1.9135 1.4738 1.173 0.8316 0.7032 0.6978 0.6334 0.5998 MS South Africa 1.045 0.7686 0.5597 0.6075 0.6761 0.7638 0.8119 0.8914 0.6603 MS South Africa 1.7744 1.9523 2.8105 2.6221 2.9127 4.0089 6.5123 5.8267 10.5268 MS South Africa 1.419 1.5242 1.202 1.4087 2.4905 1.4896 2.1077 3.0819 3.8387 MS South Africa 0.1137 0.1818 0.2378 0.2435 0.1493 0.2021 0.2356 0.3285

Brazil

China

India

Russia

2009 Year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

South Africa

1.8749 1.4575 0.5456 MS Brazil MS China MS India MS Russia 0.7275 0.3941 0.7445 0.7912 0.4025 0.9388 1.0027 0.4631 0.7874 1.0728 0.4975 1.1747 1.1568 0.5021 1.3992 1.0614 0.5953 1.7281 1.0942 0.6102 1.4596 0.8865 0.6023 1.3642 0.8234 0.613 1.1086

0.3312 0.0059 0.0377 0.0052 0.005 0.0105 0.0066 0.0041 0.0086 0.0647

Export Share Year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Year 2001 2002 ES China 3.9162 4.5353 5.216 5.8401 6.6493 7.2753 8.043 8.2003 8.7788 12.065 ES Brazil 0.8422 0.8265 0.8585 0.9388 1.0175 1.0175 1.0326 1.1082 1.0988 1.5165 ES Brazil 0.8422 0.8265 0.8585 0.9388 1.0175 1.0175 1.0326 1.1082 1.0988 1.5165 ES Brazil 0.8422 0.8265 ES India ES Russia 0.6282 1.289 0.6826 1.3167 0.6973 1.412 0.7397 1.5981 0.8678 1.9335 0.9026 1.7602 0.9524 2.1384 1.0272 2.4657 1.2367 1.9846 2.716 ES India ES Russia 0.6282 1.289 0.6826 1.3167 0.6973 1.412 0.7397 1.5981 0.8678 1.9335 0.9026 1.7602 0.9524 2.1384 1.0272 2.4657 1.2367 1.9846 2.716 ES China ES Russia 3.9162 1.289 4.5353 1.3167 5.216 1.412 5.8401 1.5981 6.6493 1.9335 7.2753 1.7602 8.043 2.1384 8.2003 2.4657 8.7788 1.9846 12.065 2.716 ES China ES India 3.9162 0.6282 4.5353 0.6826 ES South Africa 0.3823 0.3192 0.3772 0.3969 0.4108 0.3947 0.4224 0.4242 0.394 0.5469 ES South Africa 0.3823 0.3192 0.3772 0.3969 0.4108 0.3947 0.4224 0.4242 0.394 0.5469 ES South Africa 0.3823 0.3192 0.3772 0.3969 0.4108 0.3947 0.4224 0.4242 0.394 0.5469 ES South Africa 0.3823 0.3192

Brazil

China

India

Russia

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

South Africa

0.8585 5.216 0.6973 0.3772 0.9388 5.8401 0.7397 0.3969 1.0175 6.6493 0.8678 0.4108 1.0175 7.2753 0.9026 0.3947 1.0326 8.043 0.9524 0.4224 1.1082 8.2003 1.0272 0.4242 1.0988 8.7788 1.2367 0.394 1.5165 12.065 0.5469 ES Brazil ES China ES India ES South Africa 0.8422 3.9162 0.6282 1.289 0.8265 4.5353 0.6826 1.3167 0.8585 5.216 0.6973 1.412 0.9388 5.8401 0.7397 1.5981 1.0175 6.6493 0.8678 1.9335 1.0175 7.2753 0.9026 1.7602 1.0326 8.043 0.9524 2.1384 1.1082 8.2003 1.0272 2.4657 1.0988 8.7788 1.2367 1.9846 1.5165 12.065 2.716

RCA Year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Year 2001 2002 2003 Arms and Ammunition RCA(Brazil) RCA(China) RCA(India) RCA(Russia) RCA(South Africa) 1.2161 0.0726 0.1483 0.2438 9.9738 3.8976 0.0629 0.0548 0.2802 3.7994 1.7238 0.0512 0.0714 0.2975 8.3726 1.3528 0.0478 0.0405 0.2153 8.7865 1.1834 0.0475 0.0111 0.1601 9.1201 1.4 0.0574 0.0563 0.1538 9.9689 2.1514 0.0827 0.0441 0.2058 9.4404 2.3038 0.0955 0.1066 0.1891 7.6351 2.9107 0.0703 0.1245 0.1783 6.1677 Vehicles other than railways, tramways RCA(Brazil) RCA(China) RCA(India) RCA(Russia) RCA(South Africa) 0.8197 0.1937 0.2144 0.0945 0.8702 0.7585 0.1821 0.2122 0.1408 1.0375 0.8491 0.1899 0.262 0.1143 0.9868 0.9157 0.2101 0.3123 0.1125 0.914 1.0681 0.2388 0.3502 0.092 0.9612 1.032 0.266 0.3474 0.0928 1.008 0.9391 0.2946 0.3158 0.1 0.8909 0.9136 0.3383 0.4078 0.0845 1.2303 0.7883 0.3312 0.4609 0.0776 1.3208 0.7369 0.2983 0.0449 1.1039 Coffee, tea, mati and spices RCA(Brazil) RCA(China) RCA(India) RCA(Russia) RCA(South Africa) 12.3308 1.0927 10.1076 0.042 0.6478 12.9624 0.9968 7.9978 0.0371 0.8542 11.5924 0.8486 6.7759 0.0548 0.5774

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

11.9945 12.9951 12.9141 12.2658 11.6467 11.4347 12.4185

0.8931 0.7024 0.5813 0.4879 0.4844 0.5132 0.4879

6.458 5.1667 5.2847 5.1963 5.0609 3.7764

0.0977 0.0991 0.1073 0.1215 0.1127 0.1256 0.1031

0.4778 0.315 0.3538 0.3079 0.2766 0.3453 0.2822 RCA(South Africa) 0.3084 0.3349 0.2495 0.2403 0.2406 0.1129 0.084 0.0771 0.164 0.0876 RCA(South Africa) 0.1191 0.136 0.1013 0.0959 0.0929 0.0829 0.0772 0.0856 0.0887 RCA(South Africa) 9.9738 3.7994 8.3726 8.7865 9.1201 9.9689 9.4404 7.6351 6.1677 RCA(South Africa) 4.4771 5.3478 5.6527 5.1298 4.5171 3.879

Cotton RCA(Brazil) RCA(China) RCA(India) RCA(Russia) 1.3725 2.682 9.4537 0.2709 1.0576 2.9678 8.4678 0.2464 1.3726 2.6766 6.8962 0.2081 1.5812 2.2532 6.6366 0.1766 1.5453 2.294 6.1169 0.1297 1.2387 2.3312 7.3693 0.1038 1.4855 2.205 8.6852 0.0851 1.5632 2.4093 8.0626 0.0514 1.7339 2.5093 5.6762 0.0466 1.3657 2.2896 0.0357 Pharmaceutical Products RCA(Brazil) RCA(China) RCA(India) RCA(Russia) 0.188 0.1255 1.0812 0.0405 0.158 0.0912 0.9454 0.0412 0.1386 0.0757 0.9532 0.0522 0.1299 0.066 0.8958 0.0337 0.1449 0.0648 0.8461 0.0287 0.1639 0.0574 0.8963 0.0273 0.1623 0.0588 0.9184 0.0296 0.1737 0.0723 0.985 0.0236 0.1898 0.0762 0.7639 0.0276 Pearl,Precious stone and metals RCA(Brazil) RCA(China) RCA(India) RCA(Russia) 0.4586 0.4486 7.9465 0.566 0.4834 0.4274 8.675 1.5521 0.3926 0.3762 8.9882 1.5016 0.3567 0.3733 8.2643 1.3482 0.3334 0.3644 8.0741 0.3496 0.3786 0.3437 6.2921 0.63 0.3579 0.309 6.0567 0.4825 0.3493 0.2662 4.9668 0.1507 0.4463 0.2454 7.2517 0.1558 Iron and Steel RCA(Brazil) RCA(China) RCA(India) RCA(Russia) 2.6851 0.4623 1.1519 3.0538 2.9968 0.3709 1.5471 3.1456 3.0089 0.3653 1.8962 2.9355 2.5805 0.7186 1.714 3.2704 2.6534 0.7286 1.5887 2.723 2.3565 0.9579 1.581 2.1885

2007 2008 2009 Year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Year

1.0842 1.3576 1.9843 1.163 1.4028 1.9017 0.5092 1.1263 2.2145 Mineral fuels, oils and distillation products RCA(Brazil) RCA(China) RCA(India) RCA(Russia) 0.4409 0.3879 0.6012 6.3776 0.6146 0.3261 0.585 6.6204 0.6126 0.2996 0.7209 6.4573 0.5024 0.2681 0.8864 6.0251 0.5321 0.2055 0.9293 5.5015 0.6213 0.1483 1.201 3.9392 0.7284 0.1506 1.4248 5.4088 0.6444 0.1516 1.2335 4.4826 0.7614 0.1447 1.1592 5.3749 Nuclear Reactors, boilers RCA(Brazil) RCA(China) RCA(India) RCA(Russia) 0.4747 0.823 0.2353 0.2165 0.4719 1.015 0.2274 0.184 0.5271 1.2697 0.2552 0.1692 0.554 1.3366 0.2639 0.1407 0.5757 1.3718 0.2825 0.1218 0.5716 1.3859 0.2942 0.1177 0.5094 1.4155 0.2975 0.1184 0.4747 1.4748 0.3328 0.1144 0.4031 1.5362 0.3083 0.1402 Organic chemicals RCA(Brazil) RCA(China) RCA(India) RCA(Russia) 0.5849 0.6481 1.3886 0.423 0.6538 0.6129 1.4226 0.3897 0.6276 0.5727 1.5022 0.3971 0.5604 0.5382 1.5203 0.4264 0.5786 0.5697 1.5839 0.3962 0.5832 0.6092 1.8103 0.3865 0.6504 0.6628 1.7535 0.4101 0.6113 0.8693 1.8526 0.355 0.6372 0.7978 1.5595 0.2891 Rubber and articles thereof RCA(Brazil) RCA(China) RCA(India) RCA(Russia) 1.3997 0.69 0.9651 0.6692 1.3819 0.6741 1.088 0.68 1.3935 0.6199 1.1203 0.6969 1.1735 0.6692 0.9862 0.6649 1.2143 0.7503 1.0108 0.6474 1.1986 0.7821 1.0066 0.6325 1.2761 0.8354 0.8446 0.6293 1.1512 0.8367 0.9508 0.6257 1.1017 0.9029 0.7142 0.6266 Sugars and sugar confectionary RCA(Brazil) RCA(China) RCA(India) RCA(Russia)

1.9648 2.0193 1.9946

3.8755 3.8097 4.4412 RCA(South Africa) 1.4496 1.526 1.1663 1.0055 0.9252 0.7724 0.9317 0.6589 0.9578 RCA(South Africa) 0.5286 0.5841 0.5321 0.5243 0.5358 0.6303 0.6515 0.6437 0.5661 RCA(South Africa) 0.5241 0.5949 0.5667 0.6186 0.6538 0.6629 0.6286 0.7331 0.665 RCA(South Africa) 0.7849 1.0045 0.932 0.853 0.7255 0.6447 0.5646 0.5669 0.5825 RCA(South Africa)

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

3.0134 0.241 4.8784 2.4928 0.2948 4.1612 2.9209 0.1943 3.3328 0.456 0.2009 2.8311 0.3375 0.1451 2.8277 2.2832 0.1684 3.077 3.659 0.2749 2.3547 4.5507 0.1562 1.7936 0.2134 0.1769 2.9166 Tobacco RCA(Brazil) RCA(China) RCA(India) RCA(Russia) RCA(South Africa) 4.7286 0.4236 1.155 0.1318 1.5674 5.0969 0.406 1.278 0.1956 1.1538 5.1544 0.3894 1.311 0.2853 0.9618 5.6093 0.3292 1.3263 0.2534 1.1418 5.5372 0.2712 1.1432 0.3541 1.3586 5.136 0.2358 1.2153 0.327 1.4372 6.5257 0.2426 1.4248 0.4031 1.221 6.5181 0.243 1.7396 0.4311 0.9295 7.1504 0.2624 1.8238 0.5564 1.4808 Toys, games, sports requisites RCA(Brazil) RCA(China) RCA(India) RCA(Russia) RCA(South Africa) 0.0672 5.0109 0.2174 0.0151 0.0766 0.0568 5.1435 0.1951 0.0154 0.0929 0.0603 4.7901 0.2172 0.0197 0.0817 0.0708 4.4456 0.2229 0.0185 0.0829 0.0583 4.3921 0.2171 0.0235 0.0847 0.0521 4.2885 0.2098 0.0319 0.0951 0.05 3.82 0.1413 0.0245 0.0781 0.0383 3.9029 0.1308 0.0288 0.0797 0.0353 3.5034 0.114 0.0307 0.1042

15.2195 14.6566 13.1179 13.5141 15.0937 18.7434 16.3908 15.3016 22.0276

0.216 0.2792 0.1878 0.1968 0.239 0.1942 0.2311 0.2515 0.2524