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Institute of Management Technology, Ghaziabad BRM PROJECT

CURRENCY DERIVATIVE TRADING IN INDIA: POPULARITY QUOTIENT RESEARCH

Project Submitted By: Nikhil Gupta Saurabh Thadani Submitted To: Srikanth Konduri Prof. Gunjan Malhotra (10FN109) srikanthkonduri@live.co.uk (10FN121) nickfuture2006@gmail.com (10FN102) saurabhthadani@gmail.com

K.S.G.Tarun
Tushar Gupta Vishal Agarwal

(10DM-162) tarunkandarpa@gmail.com
(10FN115) tushtechy@gmail.com (10DM176) vishal.0703@gmail.com

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Table of Contents
ABSTRACT ............................................................................................................................... 4 KEYWORDS ............................................................................................................................. 4 INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................................... 4 Financial Markets ............................................................................................................... 4 Equity Markets ................................................................................................................... 4 Commodity markets ........................................................................................................... 4 Foreign Exchange markets ................................................................................................. 5 Currency Derivatives in India............................................................................................. 6 LITERATURE REVIEW .......................................................................................................... 7 PROS of the Research projects referred: ............................................................................ 7 CONS of the Research projects referred: ........................................................................... 7 RESEARCH GAPS ................................................................................................................... 8 RESEARCH OBJECTIVES ...................................................................................................... 8 RESEARCH QUESTIONS ....................................................................................................... 8 RESEARCH HYPOTHESIS ..................................................................................................... 8 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY............................................................................................... 9 Research Design ................................................................................................................. 9 Sources of Data ................................................................................................................... 9 Limitations ........................................................................................................................ 10 DISCUSSION AND OBSERVATION ................................................................................... 10 Percentage of respondents who have thought of currency derivatives trading as an investment option: ............................................................................................................ 10 Percentage of respondents into different asset markets: ................................................... 10 Percentage of respondents with expertise in different asset market ................................. 10 Division of `. 1000 among equity, commodity and currency derivative market: ............. 11 Percentage of respondents with each trading strategy in different asset markets: ........... 11 Percentage of respondents with their driving attributes for trading in different asset markets: ............................................................................................................................ 12 Percentage of respondents with reasons for the lack of interest in currency derivatives: 12 Percentage of respondents with the steps they think are most significant to promote currency derivatives market in India: ............................................................................... 13 Relationship between annual income and preference of asset market: ............................ 14 Crosstabulation: ................................................................................................................ 14

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CONCLUSION ........................................................................................................................ 17 RECOMMENDATIONS ......................................................................................................... 17 BIBLIOGRAPHY .................................................................................................................... 17 APPENDIX .............................................................................................................................. 18 Questionnaire used for the survey: ................................................................................... 18

List of Figures
Figure 1: Share of `.1000 across asset markets ........................................................................ 11 Figure 2: Trading strategies of respondents across asset markets ........................................... 11 Figure 3: Driving factors of asset markets as perceived by the respondents ........................... 12 Figure 4: The significance of factors leading to restrain in currency derivatives trading ....... 13 Figure 5: The importance given to boosting factors of currency derivatives trading .............. 14

List of Tables
Table 1: Case Processing Summary......................................................................................... 15 Table 2: Asset Market * Driving Factor Crosstabulation ........................................................ 15 Table 3: Chi-Square test results ............................................................................................... 16

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ABSTRACT
The currency derivatives market is the largest asset market in the world, even larger than equity and the commodity markets. However the Indian scenario is quite different. Currency derivatives market happens to be smaller than the other two in India. The daily trading volumes in this market are but a trifle when compared to that of equity market. In this research project we aim at finding the reasons as to why this market has not been able to pick up momentum in India. We find peoples perspective, thoughts and the reason they invest in different asset markets. We try to explore what restrains them from investing in these markets, specifically the currency derivatives market. We also mean to suggest steps that can be taken to boost its growth in India. So we ask the respondents to rate these steps to know how effective each one will be.

KEYWORDS
Currency Derivatives, Over-the-Counter (OTC), Futures, Hedgers, Speculators, Arbitragers

INTRODUCTION
Financial Markets

Financial Market is the market where financial securities like stocks, bonds, commodities like valuable metals and Foreign Exchange are exchanged at efficient market prices.
Equity Markets

These markets are where shares are issued and traded, either through exchanges or over-thecounter (OTC) markets. This can further be split into two main sectors: 1. Primary market 2. Secondary market. The primary market is where new issues are first offered. Any subsequent trading takes place in the secondary market.
Commodity markets

In these markets raw or primary products are exchanged. These raw commodities are traded on regulated commodities exchanges, in which they are bought and sold in standardized contracts.

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Foreign Exchange refers to money denominated in the currency of another nation or a group of nations. Any person who exchanges money denominated in his own nations currency for money denominated in another nations currency acquires foreign exchange. The exchange rate is a price - the number of units of one nations currency that must be surrendered in order to acquire one unit of another nations currency. The foreign exchange market or forex market as it is often called is the market in which currencies are traded. Currency Trading is the worlds largest market consisting of transactions of almost trillions in daily volume and as investors learn more and become more interested, the market continues to grow rapidly. In addition to being the largest market in the world, it is also the most liquid, differentiating it from the other market.
Financial Derivatives

Derivative is a product whose value is derived from the value of one or more basic variables, called underlying. The underlying asset can be equity, index, foreign exchange (forex), commodity or any other asset. Derivative products initially emerged as hedging devices against fluctuations in commodity prices and commodity-linked derivatives remained the sole form of such products for almost three hundred years. The financial derivatives came into spotlight in post-1970 period due to growing instability in the financial markets. However, since their emergence, these products have become very popular and by 1990s, they accounted for about two-thirds of total transactions in derivative products.
Types of Derivatives

Over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives are contracts that are traded (and privately negotiated)

directly between two parties, without going through an exchange or other intermediary. Products such as swaps, forward rate agreements, and exotic options are almost always traded in this way. Exchange-traded derivative contracts (ETD) are those derivatives instruments that are traded via specialized derivatives exchanges or other exchanges. A derivatives exchange is a market where individuals trade standardized contracts that have been defined by the exchange.

Currency Derivatives

Currency futures were first created at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) in 1972. Today, CME offers 41 individual FX futures and 31 options contracts on 19 currencies, all of which trade electronically on the exchanges CME Globex platform. It is the largest regulated marketplace for FX trading. The various uses of currency derivatives are:
Hedging: It is the process of locking in the foreign exchange rate today so that the

value of inflow in Indian rupee terms is safeguarded. Presume Entity A is expecting

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a remittance for US$ 1000 on 31st March 10. It can eliminate the currency exchange fluctuation risk by selling one USD/INR August contract today.
Speculation: If a trader has a view on the direction of the market, that is, he

expects the value of rupee to appreciate or depreciate, he can sell or buy a USD/INR contract and earn a profit if the market moves in the direction that he expects it to move.
Arbitrage: Arbitrage is the strategy of taking advantage of difference in price of the

same or similar product between two or more markets. If the same or similar product is traded in say two different markets, any entity which has access to both the markets will be able to identify price differentials, if any and take advantage of the same.
Currency Derivatives in India

Derivative trading in India started in June 2001 when SEBI approved trading in Index futures contracts based on S&P CNX Nifty and BSE-30 (Sensex) index and the trading in options on individual securities commenced in July 2001. Futures contracts on individual stocks were launched in November 2001. RBI on April 20, 2007 issued comprehensive guidelines on the usage of foreign currency forwards, swaps and options in the OTC market. In August 2008, RBI and SEBI allowed selected exchanges to offer currency trading and issued guidelines for the same. Over the past year average daily volumes in currency futures have been increasing at a faster pace when compared to the equity market. Recently the United Stock Exchange of India said it began trading in currency derivatives. The exchange went live at 9 a.m. with trading in four currency pairs allowed by the Securities and Exchange Board of India, involving the U.S. dollar, the rupee, Japan's yen, the British pound and the euro. The exchange estimated that the 9.9 million contracts that it traded on the first day, worth roughly $10 billion, gave it a 52 percent share of the market for currency derivatives in India. This constituted "a new world record for any exchange on its launch day,'' the USEI claimed. The exchange is backed by 21 Indian public sector banks, including Allahabad Bank, Andhra Bank, Bank of Baroda, Bank of India, Bank of Maharashtra, Canara Bank, Central Bank of India, Corporation Bank, Dena Bank, IDBI Bank, Indian Bank, Indian Overseas Bank, Oriental Bank of Commerce, Punjab and Sind Bank, Punjab National Bank, State Bank of India, Syndicate Bank, UCO Bank, Union Bank of India, United Bank of India and Vijaya Bank. In addition to public sector banks, five private sector banks also have equity participation in USE; Axis Bank, Federal Bank, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank and J&K Bank. Other investors include Jaypee Capital, MMTC and Indian Potash as well as the Bombay Stock Exchange.

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LITERATURE REVIEW
Currency derivatives volumes may outstrip equity markets soon. Average daily trading volumes in the Indian currency market have shown a significant jump; they may eventually outgrow volumes in equity derivatives. (Moneylife Personal Finance Magazine, April 28 2010) SEBI to introduce more currency derivatives products: Bhave. Chairman of the Indian securities board SEBI, C B Bhave, today said the market watchdog is planning to introduce more currency derivatives products, beginning with options, to give a wider choice to investors. (The Economic Times, April 16 2010) India raises trading limits in currency derivatives. India's capital market regulator has allowed companies to increase their exposure to the currency derivatives market by raising position limits for clients and non-bank trading members. (Reuters, March 25, 2009) India currency derivatives trade seen touching `.1 trln by FY12. Average daily trade volume in currency derivatives market in India is expected to surge to Rs 1 trillion in 2011-12 (Apr-Mar) from about `. 300 billion currently, Pramit Brahmbhatt, chief executive officer, Alpari Forex (India) said Thursday.(Sulekha.com Money, May 20 2010) Though several brokers and banks, such as State Bank of India (SBI) and Axis Bank, offer the currency trading platform, the participation of retail investors is yet to pick up. "Currently, the awareness level is extremely low and currency futures are viewed as an asset class that is meant only for banks, traders and corporations. Worldwide, retail is very active in the forex market, but a lot of education is needed in India," says Narayanasami. (Business Today, Betting on the money game, January 31,2011)

PROS of the Research projects referred:

The authors have covered the present scenario of currency derivatives in the country in great details. The authors have very realistically predicted the future road map for the growth of currency derivatives market in India. The authors has also analysed the reasons as to why the currency derivatives market has not gained momentum in India.

CONS of the Research projects referred:

The authors project report is based on the secondary data from various sources, which have been analyzed. They have not conducted a primary research. The authors have not suggested ways to promote currency derivatives in the country.

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RESEARCH GAPS
Our research project not only analyses the present scenario, but also the traders perspective and the reasons of restraint. We have also suggested ways in which trading in currency derivatives can be promoted in India which is lacking in the projects referred. The projects referred were undertaken in 2009. Since then there have been a lot of policy changes which have been covered in our project.

RESEARCH OBJECTIVES
This Research Project has been taken up to study the popularity quotient of Currency Derivatives trading in India. Specific objectives are: To know the percentage of traders already into currency derivatives trading or interested in it. To know the driving attributes of retail investors for each asset market. To know the reasons why Indian retail investors are less inclined towards currency derivatives trading. To know the factors that would be most helpful to boost currency derivative trading in India

RESEARCH QUESTIONS
We seek answers to the following questions with the help of research analysis: What are the main driving attributes for investment into currency derivatives? What are the main reasons of restraint for entering into currency derivatives trading? What changes would facilitate suitable business environment for increasing retail participation?

RESEARCH HYPOTHESIS
The retail participation in Currency Derivatives trading is very low compared to that of Commodities & Equities Most of the trading that is happening in the currency derivatives market is done by the importers/exporters to hedge their returns

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RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
The success of the analysis mostly depends on the methodology on which it is carried out. The usage of appropriate methodology automatically improves the validity of the findings.
Research Design

Exploratory research is being adopted to find out the idea behind currency derivative trading pattern & its sensitivity influencers.
Sources of Data

The data is basically primary in nature, collected through a questionnaire


Primary Data

Convenience sampling was used, based on the willingness and availability of the respondents. In the survey the non-probability convenience sampling is followed The questionnaires were made to be filled online from finance industry experts, people into trading or wanting to get into trading or otherwise having knowledge about financial markets Initially began with a focus group of 5 financial service professionals extended to 150 participants. We received completed surveys from 115 respondents in all aspects. We have also referred to a couple of research papers (Anuradha Guru Forex Derivative trends, Tulsi Lingareddy Present state of Forex in India) to gain secondary data insights from the market data We have also referred to the news video clipping broadcasted on CNBC TV18, on February 14, 2011 on the topic of Currency Options, to observe the future possibilities discussed by the banking experts (RVS Sridhar, President and Head-Global Markets at Axis Bank and Ananth Narayan, MD, Regional Head FICC-South Asia of Standard Chartered Bank)

Secondary Data

Variables chosen for study

A nominal scale chosen to observe the major factors that are driving the investors to trade in the respective markets A likert scale labelled from Very Insignificant to Very Significant is chosen to know the importance given to various factors that are causing a restraint to investors from trading in currency derivatives, so that we will be able to determine the root causes and the market awareness levels of respondents An interval scale is used as a tool to determine the level of significance given to various reforms that would boost the retail participation in currency derivatives

10 | P a g e Limitations

Following are the main limitations of the study:


The behaviour of the customer while approaching them to fill the questionnaire was unpredictable. The research was conducted in a limited area. Smaller sample may not always give better results. Sample may not be true representative of the whole population. There may be error due to bias of respondent

DISCUSSION AND OBSERVATION


Following are the findings from the survey results:
Percentage of respondents who have thought of currency derivatives trading as an investment option: 28% of our respondents have actually thought of currency derivatives as

an investment option or profession. 63% havent yet thought of it, but might invest after performing sufficient research. 9% havent ever heard about currency derivatives. Thus if they can acquire the right knowledge the percentage of traders in the currency derivatives segment will rise exponentially.
Percentage of respondents into different asset markets: 75% of our respondents trade in

equity. 16% in commodity and only 9% in the currency derivatives. Thus we see that trading in currency derivatives is not very popular in India yet.
Percentage of respondents with expertise in different asset market: 20% of our

respondents feel they dont have any expertise in equity market. 38% feel they are beginners in equity markets and around the same proportion feel they have intermediate knowledge about the field. Only about 3.5% feel they are experts in equity trading. 54% of our respondents feel they dont not have any expertise in commodity market. 33% feel they are beginners in commodity markets and only 13% feel they have intermediate knowledge about the field. None of the respondents feel they are experts in commodity trading. 62% of our respondents feel they dont have any expertise in currency derivatives market. 34% feel they are beginners in currency derivatives markets and only 2.5% feel they have intermediate knowledge about the field. A mere 1.5% feel they are experts in currency derivatives trading. Thus we find that the lack of knowledge is the most dominant in case of currency derivatives.

11 | P a g e Division of `. 1000 among equity, commodity and currency derivative market:

When asked to divide a sum of `. 1000 and allocate to the 3 asset markets, the respondents allocated 62.5% to equity (refer to Figure.1), 21.65% to commodity market and a remaining mere 15.8% to currency derivatives. Thus we see that a higher
Figure 1: Share of `.1000 across asset markets

proportion of the allocated amount is invested in equity, followed by commodity and the least

in invested in currency derivatives.


Percentage of respondents with each trading strategy in different asset markets: 29.3%

of our respondents trade in the Equity market for the purpose of hedging. (Refer to Figure.2)

Figure 2: Trading strategies of respondents across asset markets

64.5% are speculators and only 6% try to earn profit by means of arbitrage. 31.8% of our respondents trade in the commodity market for the purpose of hedging. 50.6% are speculators and 17.6% try to earn profit by means of arbitrage. 39.5% feel they might trade in currency derivatives for the purpose of hedging, 42% will be speculators and just about 18.5% would try to earn profit by means of arbitrage. Thus we see that a higher number of our respondents would trade in currency derivatives for the purpose of hedging when compared to the equity market and the commodity market.

12 | P a g e Percentage of respondents with their driving attributes for trading in different asset markets: (refer to figure.3)

Figure 3: Driving factors of asset markets as perceived by the respondents

36.6% feel that Returns is the driving attribute for trading in the equity market, while according to 22.5% volatility in the equity market is what drives investment. 27.7% think portfolio diversification is the driving attribute while 9.4% say hedging gives the edge to the equity market. 3.75% say they would trade in the equity market to get arbitrage opportunities. 24.4% feel that Returns is the driving attribute for trading in the commodity market, while according to 24.4% volatility in the commodity market is what drives investment. 24.4% think portfolio diversification is the driving attribute while 18.3% say hedging gives the edge to the commodity market. 8.5% say they would trade in the commodity market to get arbitrage opportunities. 23.2% feel that Returns is the driving attribute for trading in currency derivatives, while according to 23.5% volatility in currency derivatives is what drives investment. 17.5% think portfolio diversification is the driving attribute while 20.65% say hedging gives the edge to currency derivatives. 14.8% say they would trade in currency derivatives to get arbitrage opportunities. Thus we can see that the driving attribute for the currency market sees a high jump in hedging when compared to the equity market and the commodity market.
Percentage of respondents with reasons for the lack of interest in currency derivatives:

Looking upon the various reasons (refer to Figure.4) that could be attributed to Indian investors lesser inclination towards currency derivatives trading, about 70% of our

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respondents find that the lack of self-knowledge is a significant factor for them, whereas just 14% find it totally irrelevant.

Figure 4: The significance of factors leading to restrain in currency derivatives trading

Considering the less popularity of currency derivatives among the peers as a factor, around 65% of the sample population find it to be a significant one, whereas just 14% vote against it being a significant reason. 17% of our respondents feel that lack of government initiatives is a very significant factor, whereas just 6% feel that it is highly insignificant that government policy can decide the fate of currency derivatives market in India. Thus we can see that lack of self -knowledge is the main factor for the lack of interest among the Indian investors in the currency derivatives market.
Percentage of respondents with the steps they think are most significant to promote currency derivatives market in India: (refer to Figure.5)

34% and 37% of our respondents feel that improving investor knowledge through media broadcasts can respectively be a significant and very significant factor for boosting currency derivatives trading in India.

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Figure 5: The importance given to boosting factors of currency derivatives trading

About 43% of the respondents feel that Opportunity to trade in non-US currency futures can boost the currency derivatives market in India, whereas just 20% feel that it would be an insignificant factor. 36% choose the middle way. Relaxation of regulatory framework by SEBI gels well with 41% of the respondents, whereas 34% remain neutral for this factor. Only a minority would like to disagree. Thus we can see that steps to improve investor knowledge through media broadcast can go a long way to promote currency derivatives trading in India.
Relationship between annual income and preference of asset market: It is also seen that

with the increase in the annual salary of the respondents they begin to deviate their investments from equity towards commodity and currency derivatives.
Crosstabulation: Feeling about the Market * Driving Factor where survey is done.

Note that 78 of the 153 respondents chosen the returns (51%) as driving factor for Equity However, Only 8 of 46 respondents chosen Arbitrage (17%) for equity Are these differences between region and response likely to be due to chance? Chi-Square is being performed as a test of independence to validate the data collected Calculation of Chi Square:

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Where: O = Observed frequencies, and E = Expected frequencies

The SPSS output in Table.1 shows the number of responses received for the corresponding question in the survey Table 1: Case Processing Summary Cases Valid N Percent 524 100.0% N 0 Missing Percent .0% N 524 Total Percent 100.0%

Asset Market * Driving Factor

Table 2: Asset Market * Driving Factor Crosstabulation Table.2 below shows the difference between expected and observed values for each driving factor across different asset markets
Driving Factor Market Return Asset Market Currencies Count % within Asset Market Commodity Count % within Asset Market Equity Count % within Asset Market Total Count % within Asset Market 153 29.2% 117 22.3% 124 23.7% 84 16.0% 46 8.8% 524 100.0% 78 37.7% 41 19.8% 59 28.5% 21 10.1% 8 3.9% 207 100.0% 39 24.1% 39 24.1% 39 24.1% 30 18.5% 15 9.3% 162 100.0% 36 23.2% Volatality 37 23.9% Portfolio Diversification Hedging Arbitrage 26 16.8% 33 21.3% 23 14.8% Total 155 100.0%

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Table 3: Chi-Square test results

Value Pearson Chi-Square Likelihood Ratio Linear-by-Linear Association N of Valid Cases 34.590a 35.431 18.521 524

df 8 8 1

Asymp. Sig. (2-sided) .000 .000 .000

a. 0 cells (.0%) have expected count less than 5. The minimum expected count is 13.61.
Interpretation of chi-square

The magnitude of the chi-square value must be judged against a table of values of the chisquare distribution:

One must enter this table using the appropriate degrees of freedom: calculated according to the size of the table:

X2 degrees of freedom = df
o o o

= (rows - 1) (columns - 1) = (3 - 1) (5 - 1) = 2 x 4 = 8.

Given the same degrees of freedom, the larger the chi-square value, the more "significant" it is.

As the significance value is 0.000, at the 95% confidence interval, it can be stated that: A chi-square as large as 34.5 (from Table.3) for 8 degrees of freedom would be expected by chance fewer than 1 time in 1000

The driving factors mentioned are significantly dependent on the basis of chosen asset markets to invest

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CONCLUSION

Only 9% of traders are already into this trading, while 63% are interested in trading after performing research

Hedging is considered as a major driving factor for trading in currency markets(21%), compared to Equity(10%) & Commodity(18%) 70% quote improving investors self-knowledge will increase the retail participation in Currency derivatives 68% feel a relaxation in the norms of SEBI in terms of lot size and percentage margins will spurt a rise in currency derivatives trading

RECOMMENDATIONS

Government should take steps to increase liquidity in the market by introducing crosscurrency pairs as well as more products and by opening doors for other players like foreign institutional investors to trade in this market Efforts have to be made to penetrate the perception of currency derivatives as an insuring instrument to reduce risk rather just as a speculative trading product Improving investor knowledge through web portals, learning documents and media broadcasts

BIBLIOGRAPHY
Derivatives in India by Asani Sarkar: www.ny.frb.org/research/economists/sarkar/derivatives_in_india.pdf Foreign exchange derivative markets in India by Invest India Economic Foundation: www.iief.com/Research/CHAP10.PDF Betting of the money game article in Business Today Jan.31,2011:http://businesstoday.intoday.in/bt/story/12653/1/high-leverage-currencyderivatives-can-benefit-you.html Currency Derivatives Segment NSE India: http://www.nse-india.com/content/circulars/cd13462.pdf

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APPENDIX
Questionnaire used for the survey:

Currency Derivatives trading in India-popularity quotient survey Kindly spare a few minutes to fill this form, be a part of real customer perception survey and support us to gain subtle insights about Currency Derivatives trading's popularity quotient among Indian retail investors.
1. * Did you ever think of currency derivatives trading as an investment option or profession? Yes No, but planning to invest after performing research Never, What's Currency Derivatives? 2. In which asset markets do you trade? (Choose all that apply, skip if you do not trade) Equity Commodity Currency Derivatives

3.

* Rate your expertise in the asset markets: (Choose one level for each market) Zero Commodity Currency Derivatives Equity

Beginner

Intermediate

Expert

4. Given Rs.1000, how would you allocate the money among these investment options? (Cummulative allocation should add up to Rs.1000) * Shares

* Currencies

* Commodities

4. 5.

What kind of trader best describes you? * (Choose the most preferred one for each market, skip if you do not trade)

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Hedger Currency Derivatives Equity Commodity 6.

Speculator

Arbitrager

Choose top 3 among the following driving attributes for each asset market: * (Fill for only those markets in which you trade) Returns Market volatility Portfolio diversification

Hedging Arbitrage

Currency Derivatives Commodity Equity 7. * Why do think Indian retail investors are less inclined towards Currency Derivatives trading? Very Insignificant Insignificant Neutral Significant Very Significant

Not enough Self-Knowledge Less popular among peers Lack of govt. initiatives

8.

* How effective would be the following factors to boost Currency Derivatives trading in India? (1-Star: Least effective, 5-Star: Highly effective)
0

Improving investor knowledge through media broadcasts


0

Opportunity to trade in non-US currency futures


0

Relaxation of regulatory framework by SEBI

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* Name

* Age Below 25 25 - 30 30 - 35 Above 35 * Present City of living

If Others, please mention your city here:

* Profession

* Average annual income

Rs.0 - Rs. 2.5 lac Rs. 2.5 lac - Rs. 5 lac Rs. 5 lac - Rs. 8 lac Rs. 8 lac - Rs. 11 lac Rs. 11 lac & above * Which brokerage service providers do you use? (Mention each name on a separate line)

E-Mail Address: * (For receiving the overall response stats and analysis after the closure of this survey)