Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Macro‐Economic
Investment Theories
Eljaili
2006
ELJAILI@GMAIL.COM
1‐ Concept of Investment:
Investment is the flow of spending that adds to the physical stock of capital. In
include spending by both private & public sector on new capital goods that adds
to the society’s stock of capital.
2‐ Types of Investments:
Classification of investment:
1. Gross Investment: refers to the total spending of supply on new a capital
goods.
2. Replacement investment: refers to the spending on a capital goods that were
depreciate/ wear out.
3. Net Investment: Gross – Replacement Investments.
Another classification of investment:
1. Private investment: Spending on capital goods by private sector.
2. Public Investment: flow of spending on capital goods by government or
public sector.
Aggregate Investment =private + Public Investment.
Third classification of investment:
1. Fluctuation investment account for much of the movement of GDP in
business cycle. Investment is the most technical (cyclical) ran able of the
aggregate demand components.
2. Investment spending determines the rate at which the economy adds to its
stock of physical capital and thus helps determine the economy long‐run
growth and productivity performance.
4‐ The theory of investment:
a. Classical approach:
Classical economists viewed the rate of invest as the main
determinant of investment. Because interest rate is the cost of capital,
which means when a firm plan to invest or to undertake new investment
then it need to borrow or take loan to finance this investment. How ever,
before that feasibility study must be undertaken on which the expected
yield of investment will be compared with the cost of capital. Calculating
the expected yields from a new investment is not easy because yields are
spread over number of years in the future. One way of comparing the
expected yield of an investment to its initial cost is to calculate yields on
investment.
Investment Decision:
Investment decision depends on the result of comparing present
value of future yields to initial cost of certain project. If the present value
of expected yield exceeds initial cost, investment is profitable and its
possible to be undertaken otherwise it is unprofitable and it is unwisely
to be undertaken future running costs. The net return from investment
can be calculated as: NR = ∑(Rt+i – Ct+i) / (1+r)i : from i=0 to n.(Ot ≤NR).
b. Neo‐Classical approach:
c. Keynesian approach:
‐ Marginal Efficiency of capital (MEC) or internal rate of return:
The marginal efficiency of capital MEC approach to investment is
essentially formalization by Keynes in his general theory of employment,
money and interest rate for the approach taken by classical economists
before him. In simple terms it involve calculating whether its profitable
for affirm to make a certain investment but this require some means of
comparing cost of the investment with its prospective benefit (in form of
profits) in the future. Or compare initial cost outlay of a particular
investment with its future net return.
Ot ≤ ∑ (Rt+i – Ct‐i )/ (1+r)n , for i=0 to n
Where r will be marginal efficiency of capitals which can be
defined as an interest rate if it were used to discount the net return on an
investment would make that investment neither profitable nor
unprofitable and investment will be profitable if MEC ≥ r.
The MEC approach involves using the technique of discounting to
compare the initial cost outlay of a particular investment Ot, with the
present value of net return.
If scheme produce an income of $2000 per year for five years, and
the initial cost of that project is $45000, then MEC for this scheme is
calculated in the following way:
Ot = ∑ (Rt+i – Ct+i) / (1+m)n , for i=0 to n
45000= 2000/(1+m)
m = 28.5 (by using table)
Profitable if r < MEC
m > r then the project can be undertaken.
m < r then the project unprofitable.
‐ Marginal Efficiency of Investment (MEI):
One attempt to get from the MEC to the theory of investment is
the marginal efficiency of investment (MEI) analysis. This involves making
the speed of adjustment from the existing level of the capital stock to
some new level as determined by the (MEC), dependent on the behavior
of the firm which produce capital goods.
(Where O’t is the new outlay cost and m’ is the new marginal
efficiency of capital). Repeating this exercise for all different levels of
demand for capital goods (and for prices associated with them) and then
aggregating in the usual way across firm produce a revised (MEC)
schedule incorporating the variations in capital goods prices. This new
schedule is called the marginal efficiency of investment (MEI) schedule
and is steeper than the MEC schedule. Shown from the figure when
interest rate is high (low) investment demand is higher (lower) than on
the MEC because capital goods prices are lower (higher).
M
MEI
Higher investment
Lower investment
MEC
Value of the investment
‐ Different between MEC & MEI:
‐ The accelerator principles:
K*t = α Yt
It assumes that firms always adjust their capital to their output so
that the capital stock of the previous period must be in the ratio to the
output of the previous period:
Kt‐1 = α Yt‐1
Net investment is the growth in capital stock between periods:
It = K*t – Kt‐1 = α Yt – α Yt‐1 = α (Yt – Yt‐1)
It = α ΔY
Thus net investment is proportional to the growth of output,
rather than its level. Rising output brings about positive net investment
and constant output brings about zero net investment and falling output
brings about negative net investment.