303.

09
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( - . ..)

,
.
: , , , , .

.
[1]. , 50% ,
.
.

. [25] .

[68]. , , [9]. .
.

.
[9].

dM n
= (1 M n ) y (M n ) .
dt

(1)

141

 . 28, 2010

- ;
- ,
;
M n - , .
(1) :
M n (t ) =

y
y
)e (( y ) t ,
+ (M 0
y+
y+

(2)

M 0 = M n (0) ,
t=0.
(2),

(.1.).
( y + )

.1. =0,2; =0,1; 0=0,5

,

. - .
- -

142

..

,

.
.

:

M1 2
y
= (y + )(M 0
)e ( y ) t ;
t
y+

(3)

M 2 3
y
)e ( y )( t + t ) ,
= (y + )(M 0
y+
t

(4)

1, 2, 3 t1, t2, t3 ;
t = t 2 t1 = t 3 t 2 .
, (3) (4)
t 0 .
:

= 1 /( y + ) ;
M 2
1 = 1
;
t
M 3
2 = 2
t
1 / 2 .
t

1
t
(M 0 y)e
1

=
=e .
( t + t )

2
1
(M 0 y)e

(5)

(5)
=

t
.
ln(1 / 2 )

(6)
143

 . 28, 2010

= (y 1) / , :
t

1 2
2
= (y (y 1) / ) (M 0 y)e .
2 t

(7)

1 2
.
2t
/ 1 .

( y (y 1) / ) (M 0 y)e
(y 1) .
=
= y
t

1
( y (y 1) / )(M 0 y)e
2

(8)

(8) .
y=

1 1
.
2 1

(9)

, :
1 1
=
.
2 1

(10)

t=0
(3)
M0 =

y B1
.
y+a

(11)

.
. , , .

144

..

1. 59 i 06.02.2006.

[
]

:
http://zakon1.rada.gov.ua/cgi-bin/laws/main.cgi?nreg=z0480-06.
2. .. / .. .: , 1969. 400 .
3. .. /
.. .: , 1970. 112 .
4. ..
/ .., .. . .:
. . , 1993. 268 .
5. .. / .. ,
.. . .: , 2007. 343 .
6. .. / .. .: ,
1988. 413 .
7. ..
/ .. .: ,
1998. 300 .
8. ..
/ .. .: ,
1986. 152 .
9. .. / ..
// . : , 2010.
. 11. .112-117
..

.

, .
: , , ,
, .
A.S. Rogozin
Defining the parameters of the model process of informing the population.
We propose an approach of determining the parameters of the model to inform
the public on the basis of ideas about the stationarity of the process of informing.
Keywords: informing, process, mathematical model, analysis, parameters.

145