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2004-7

No. C2004009

1644-2000

2004 7 14

No. C2004009

0106275-1599
0106275-1474
fenglu@ccer.pku.edu.cn; p_kkxx.student@sina.com

1644-2000

2004 7 14

No. C2004009

0106275-1599
0106275-1474
fenglu@ccer.pku.edu.cn; p_kkxx.student@sina.com


1
1-1
1-1-1
1-1-2
1-1-3
1-2
1-2-1
1-2-2
1-2-3
1-2-4

2
2-1
2-1-1
2-1-2
2-1-3
2-2
2-2-1
2-2-2
2-3
2-3-1
2-3-2
2-3-3

3
3-1
3-1-1
3-1-220 1935

3-1-31935-1948
3-1-41949
3-1-5
3-2
3-3

41867
4-1
4-21867-1949
4-31867
4-41867

5
1

2-11644-1910
2-21640-1910
2-31740-1910
2-41700-1800
2-51740-1910
2-61911-1937
2-71937-1949
2-81913-1936
2-91950-2000
2-101950-2000
2-1111963-68
2-11220 80
2-11320 90
4

2-121963-1999
3-11721-1910
3-21644-2000
3-3
4-111913-1937
4-121933-1949
4-21867-2000
4-31867-2000
1-1
2-118
2-2
2-3
2-4
2-5
2-6
3-1
3-21644-2000
3-3

1644-20001

350

stylized facts
1867

20 50



20 50 1988

Yeh-Chien Wang1992
1992 Lee, James
et al.1992

70
20 50
20 60 20

Bray,1994 9
13 1986 1 2

20
2

Buck,1937 34
11986
3-6

40
2001 150 2

1-1

1-1

1646-1683

1666-1696

16961740

17411910

1996

18 30
19

17421786

18001850

18621920

18721878

(1955)
2 3

18961927

18941932

19091927

18981924

19121934

19121949

19121936

19121936

1982

19121936

1982

19131942

19241934

19261942

1988

1988

1988

1926/11942/12

1933

1935
33 2627

1937

1988
1935

1946/11952/4

1928/11942/12
1947/11952/4

19311936

1937/71943/4

10

1937

1945

19131948

19491953

19631968

19751982

19791993

1987

1997

2002

1984

2002

2002
2002

119792 Yeh-Chien Wang19923


Lee, James et al.19921995
9

1992Peter C.Perdue19921995

1992

Han-sheng Chuan et al.19751976


1992

2002

Yeh-Chien Wang1992
1740-1910 170 96 25
6
4

1984
1982
2001 263 12
18201857 1955 38
31 18001850

1-1-2

4
Han-sheng Chuan etl.1975

10

1872187818961927
1929
5
1928 1949 1932 23
1948 910 4 1913 1928 3
1928 4 1937 6 1937 7 1942


1-1-3

1872187818961927 18981928
11

1949-1953
1949

1958 1 1949-53
1954~1978

70

1963196819791993
80

1987
1993 1997
2002

1-2

1-2-1

Han-sheng
Chuan et al.1975Yeh-Chien Wang19921992

12

1992

()

50

1960

60

60 80

1-2-2

13

17

19591995
7

// Han-sheng Chuan
et al.19751976
1995

Han-sheng Chuan et
al.1975
shi
dan 18 140.6 8
1 156
6

1976
Han-sheng Chuan etl.1975
7

1959 2.3

8
Yeh-Chien Wang1992 1 1.4 140 168
14

1949
/

16441910
Yeh-Chien Wang1992
1896-1910 19111949
1950 2002

2-1
2-1-1
15

Yeh-Chien Wang1992 16381935


16381695
16961740
17411910 19111935

16441910
2-1 9

2-1 1644 1910

Yeh-Chien Wang1992

2-1-2

10
1935
900
1641-1910 195411

(shi)
1436-1449
11
1988 /2001
256 10/
10

16

573 1

1954
16
1959
15
1954 573
1

2001 256 10
2-2

2-2 1640 1910

20-30
0.821660 0.94
0.72

2-1-3

2-3 12
1740-1910

12

17

12
2-4 18 2-1

2-3 1740 1910

1995 12

2-4 1700 1800

2001 256

2-1

18

2-118

1.00

0.58

0.79

0.64

0.83

0.067

0.58

1.00

0.24

0.63

-0.24

0.061

0.79

0.24

1.00

0.79

-0.61

0.056

0.64

0.63

0.79

1.00

-0.69

0.049

0.83

-0.24

-0.61

-0.69

1.00

1 17001800 17401840
17401800
5
2
Robust SPLUS Robust
1740

2.5
2-2 0.73-0.95 2-1

2-5

1995 12

19

2-2

1.00

0.83

0.79

0.73

0.84

0.83

1.00

0.89

0.95

0.89

0.79

0.89

1.00

0.89

0.90

0.73

0.95

0.89

1.00

0.87

0.84

0.89

0.90

0.87

1.00

2-2
2-2-1

1872187818961929

19121949 19111949 20 40
1937
2-6 1911-1937 1911-19
1930 1919 30
1933 1937

2-619111937

19111935 /19361937 /
3

2-7 1911-1937 1937


1938
1848
20

2-7 19371949

19371941 /19421944 /
19451948 /1949 /
3

2-2-2

2-8

2-8 1913 1936

1982 1930 /1930


/Hsiao Liang-lin1974

3 2.7
21

13 3

14

2-3

1.00

0.93

0.59

0.45

0.03

0.08

0.93

1.00

0.65

0.47

0.14

0.05

0.59
0.45

0.65
0.47

1.00
0.55

0.55
1.00

-0.01
-0.01

0.04
0.53

0.03
0.08

0.14
0.05

-0.01
0.04

-0.01
0.53

1.00
-0.05

-0.05
1.00

2-3
20 50 70

70

2-3-1
2002 1963
196819801999
2000 1984 19751981
1975-79 1980 1
19501953
1950 1958 1950
19511953 1951-53
1 2-9

13

1957

1937 205237
14

22

2-9 (1950~2000)

1950-53 11 1955

1954196219691974

1 2.7

2-10 (1950~2000)

1950-54 11 1955

2-3-2
60

23

2002
1963196819801999 2.1113

2-11 1 1963-68

2-112 20 8 0

24

2-113 2090

80
60 2-4

2-4

63/68

1.00

0.73

0.69

0.76

0.72

0.73
0.69

1.00
0.58

0.58
1.00

0.99
0.62

0.86
0.89

0.76
0.72

0.99
0.86

0.62
0.89

1.00
0.87

0.87
1.00

80/89

1.00
0.98

0.98
1.00

0.99
0.97

0.94
0.92

0.95
0.94

0.99
0.94

0.97
0.92

1.00
0.98

0.98
1.00

0.98
0.97

0.95

0.94

0.97

1.00

0.98
90/99

25

0.78
(0.83)

0.96
(0.97)

1.00

0.91

0.96

0.94

0.95

0.91
0.96

1.00
0.85

0.85
1.00

0.92
0.95

0.89
0.98

0.94
0.95

0.92
0.89

0.95
0.98

1.00
0.98

0.98
1.00

80/99

1.00
0.92

0.92
1.00

0.96
0.86

0.94
0.92

0.95
0.89

0.96
0.94

0.86
0.92

1.00
0.95

0.95
1.00

0.98
0.98

0.95

0.89

0.98

0.98

1.00

0.93
(0.95)

0.93
(0.95)

2002
IG Ic 15

2-5

80-90 60

2-5

1963/68
1980/89

0.26
0.09

0.23
0.21

-0.20
-0.16

-0.20
-0.21

-0.21
0.00

1990/99

0.12

0.06

-0.07

-0.15

0.04

( m( xi ) m( x )) [( m( xi ) + m( x ))/2] m(xi) i

m(x)

2-3-3
2-12
2-5

( j =1 2j ) p
p

15

IG = (

p( p 1)

) 1/ 2 I c = ( p 1 ) p p i

26

2-12 1963 1999

2-6
1963/68

1.00

0.76

0.79

0.76

1.00

0.53

0.79

0.53

1.00

1980/99

1.00

0.93

0.84

0.93

1.00

0.88

0.84

0.88

1.00

/20 30
/1950 /

11910

2
1910 30

31933 1935
27

1948 8

4
1948 12 20

3-1-1
16
1959 3

17

18
19 20 21

22

50 601959
1319
1959
14 45

1981 12 1000 /
16

19851529 1933 1933


1935 19861959

17

18
37.31
37.48 36.66 1985
182183
19
1933
1856 50
53 8 2 6
20
1933
992

21
1927 980
1000 1985 186
22
935.3741985 184 50
2.4
28

1988 820
3-1 17211900 180 18
1000 /
1850 2000 /
19 60-70 19
1200 /

3-1 1721 1900

1994

1 23 2 24 3 25 4 26
1981 15 19
1981 18

1988 780784 1987


19 27
23

1853

24

510

25

26

1981
27
1900
29

28

60% 15%1985
1840-1856 1854-1905

19104 1914
2 7 2
1933

7.15 1914
1981
31.3% 90
35.4% 5 33.4%

1933
1981 Edwin
W.Kemmerer

1910 1914


1935 11

1942 7 1
349

1948 8

1949 6

1948
29

1985
28

29

656
30


1948 12

1950
1951
1959 1955 3
11 1998

3-1-5

3-1

3-1

1910

1988

1914 2

1985

1933 4

7.15

1
1935 11 4

11

1937 10

11

1988

1942 6 22

12

1945 9

15

1988

1945 9 28

1200

1948 8 19

1300

1998

1100

1948 12 1

11000
12000
1949

31

16 1998

1949 5

1955 3

110

1988

110

1998

11

1998

3-2

3-2

3-21644-2000

1644-1910

1911-1934

1935-411942 1-6

1942 6 -1945 8

1948 9 -1949 5

1949 6-12 19501955 3

//

1955 3

//

1945 9-12 1946-1947


1948 1-8

3-2

1 1

1
1 1
1

32

3-21644 2000

/
/

10 1.E + N 10 N
1644~1910/
1911~1934/1935~19491948/8
/1942~1944 /
1948/8~1949/5 1 300 1950~2000
/1955 11

3-3

100 100

300

33

N N
N
3-3

3-3

1644-1910

N1=1

P1*N1

2
3

1911-1934

0.72

N2= N1*0.72

P2*N2

1935-1942/5

N3= N2*1

P3*N3

4
5

1942/6-1945/8

N4= N3*2

P4*N4

1945/9-1948/8

200

N5= N4*200

P5*N5

6
7

1948/9-1949/5

300

N6= N5*300

P6*N6

1949/6-1955/3

10

N7= N6*10

P7*N7

1955/4

N8= N7*1

P8*N8

Ni i Pi i

3-3 6 1913
3-3
19 90 20 30

1948 1940 100


1949 1019 70 1960
80 90

34

3-3
4E+21
2E+21

1913=100

9E+20

hyper-inflation
(1938-1949)
340
260
180
100

1984

1964

1944

1924

1904

1884

1864

1844

1824

1804

1784

1764

1744

1724

1704

1684

1664

1644

20

Year

9E020 91020

41867

35

1867 1949

1867

1867
1867-1949
1867

1867
1904
1904
Hsiao Liang-lin1974
19 19322003 28
18671922 W.C.Wetmore 20
18731892 J.R.Raeburn 15
18711921 18741893
18741926

1920 2003

18641923 18751923
J.L.Buck1925 19101926
1932 19
18701930 1957
18751925 1963

36

1912 1913
1919 1932
1949
19371948 22 19131937
Wertheim 30 34
200320
31 19371947
7

17
1946 1947
4-11 19131937 1931
30 30

4-1 1 1913 1937

1997
19221937 126 1926
192136 153 1936 1937 19221937
1913 1913
1921 1921
1913

4-12 193349 193747 1933


46 1937
194245
1941

30

34
19131937
14
2003 32
31
1920 1948

37

19371948 153 1936 1949


422 1937 1
15 19331946

1948


18671950 18671912
19131921 19221949 1912

1913

1921 1 1949 5
192136 126
1926 193748 153 1936 1949 1
5 173 1937 1 6
192249
3
2 1913100
1921 1913
1921 1913100 1921
19221949
18671949 5 1950
1867 1950 1949 6 1950
1949 6 1949 5 6
32 6
1949 5 6 1949 7
32

38

12 1950 1949 6
1949 6 1950
1950

2000
50 70

195479
80 20 33
4-2

4-21867-2000

4E+21
4e+021
3e+021
3E+21
2e+021
2E+21

hyper-inflation
(1938-1949)

1913=100

9E+20
9e+020

330
250
170

90
60

1867

1887

1907

1927

Year

1947

1967

1987

9E020 91020

33

20 1980 10
10%

39

4-2
3-3 1867 4-3

4-3 18672000

1910-1949
1876-1910

4-2

2000
881900 71 1913 2000 100
1.24 1900 1 /100 2000 1900
1.24 /100 2000 80 /100 100
65 /100

40 1947 99
1948 159

60
1960 91 1961 219 1.4
50

40

19 20
1919 30
20 60
2-8

20

70 2000 20
2003

60 70

20 70

19 20 20

41

42

1
1951-621969-74
195162
1963
1984 A.1

A.1

1950100
1951

111.2

1952

111

1953

115.3

1954

118

1955

117.8

1956

117.6

1957

120.9

1958

130.4

1959

132.1

1960

151.6

1961

545.9

1962

354.8

1963

267.7

197579 1980 1984 1975


1980 2002 1980 1984

1984/
/19842002
A.2 2002 1980
1984 1980
A.2

1984

1975

0.41

1976

0.48

1977

0.47

1978

0.41

1979

0.40

1980

0.39

196974 1968 1984


196974 A.3 a b 2002

43

1968 A2 1975
A.3

1968

aa=0.29

1950100

197.9

1969

197.7

0.9726

1970

197.7

0.9736

1971

215

1.0588

1972

232.7

1.0538

1973

245

1.0251

1974

249.5

0.9915

1975

bb=0.32

259.5

b/a 259.5/197.9 20
1969-74
1969-74
b/a/259.5/197.9

1950 1951
1950
1951 1950
1950 1.21762
1951 1950

1.

1987
1987

2.

199218
1992

3.

2003 2003

4.

2002

3022002

5.

19821982 4~5

6.

1932 1932 12
1988

7.

1945 1945

8.

1992 1992

44

9.

199518 1995 14 1

10. 19841840-1919
1984
11.

12. 1993
13. 1991

1991 6
14. 1988 1988
15. 1976
16. 1994
5 1994
17. 1935 1935
18. 2000
2000
19. 2002

19871999NO.C2002004
20. 1954 1954
21. 1988 1988 1965
22. 1985 1985
23. 1979
24. 1976
1976
25. 19791662-1722

1979 10
26. 1959

1723-35

27. 1996

1996
6
28. 1929

18 2 18
3
29. 1984
19491982
1984

45

30. 1998 1998


31. 1998
1998
32. 1985
1985
33. 19821982
34. 1986 1986
35. ()
36. 1981 1644-1937
70
37. 1976

Mid-Ching Rice Markets and Trade: An Essay in Price History


1976 8 1
38. 1997 1997
39. 1986 1986
40. 1996 1996
41. 2001 2001
42. 1955 1955
43. 1959 1959
44. 1935 2 1
45. 1982
46. 1981
47. 33 2627
48. 1933
49. 1957 1957
50. 2003
51. 1958

1958
52. 1991

1991
53. 1995 1995
54. 1937 26
55. BrayFrancesca1994The Rice Economies: Technology and Development in Asian
46

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An Economic Analysis of Supply Response for the Main Grain Crops in
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47