AgregatPlanning (#3)

Departemen Teknik Industri FTI-ITB
TI-3122
Perencanaan dan Pengendalian Produksi

Perencanaan Agregat

Laboratorium Sistem Produksi
www.lspitb.org
2003
TI3122-Perencanaan dan Pengendalian Produksi - Minggu 3 2
Hasil Pembelajaran
Umum
Mahasiswa mampu menerapkan model matematik,
heuristik dan teknik statistik untuk menganalisis dan
merancang suatu sistem perencanaan dan pengendalian
produksi

Khusus
Memahami konsep agregasi/disagregasi serta mampu
menyusun rencana agregat dan mampu menyusun
jadwal produksi induk
Pendahuluan(1)
Tujuan Aggregate planning (AP) adalah membangkitkan
(generate) top level production plans

Basis AP adalah hasil ramalan dan target produksi. Target
produksi ditentukan oleh top level business plan yang
memperhatikan kapasitas & kapabilitas perusahaan

Analisis dilakukan dalam kelompok produk (product family)
dengan unit agregat

Melibatkan pemilihan srategi manufaktur

Peran AP adalah sebagai interface antara perusahaan/sistem
manufaktur dan pasar produknya.
Factory
Wholesaler
Retailer
End consumer
Aggregate
Planning
Company top level plans
Pendahuluan(2)
Aggregate Planning Strategies(1)
1) Capacity options
2) Demand options
3) Mixed strategies

Capacity options:
Mengubah-ubah tingkat inventory (level production)
Mengubah-ubah ukuran tenaga kerja: hiring/lay off (chase
strategy)
Mengubah-ubah production rate: over time/under time
Menggunakan part time workers
Aggregate Planning Strategies(2)
Demand options
Mempengaruhi demand: advertensi, promosi, personal selling,
discount, diskriminasi harga
Backordering

Pure strategy
Bila yang diubah-ubah hanya satu variabel

Mixed strategy
Melibatkan pengubahan beberapa variabel, misalnya bila pure
strategy tidak feasible
Controllable (decision) variable
Inventory

Production rate

Manpower

Kapasitas: over time/recruitment/layoff (tenaga kerja/work force)

Subcontract
Methods
Trial and Error (Charting/graphical methods)
Pure strategy
Mixed strategy

Mathematical (optimal) approach:
Linear Programming Model
Transportation Model

Management Coefficient Approach atau empirical approach

Simulation
Relevant cost
Hiring/layoff cost

Overtime/under time cost

Inventory carrying cost

Subcontracting incremental cost

Part time labor cost

Backorder cost

Stock out cost
Trial and Error
Diketahui demand selama 8 kuartal ke depan (hasil ramalan)

Ongkos kenaikan tingkat produksi: 100

Ongkos penurunan tingkat produksi: 150

Ongkos inventory: 50

Incremental cost for subcontracting: 80

Incremental overtime cost: 20
Kuartal Demand Kumulatif
1 220 220
2 170 390
3 400 790
4 600 1390
5 380 1770
6 200 1970
7 130 2100
8 300 2400
Demand per kuartal
0
200
400
600
800
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Kuartal
K
u
a
n
t
i
t
a
s

d
e
m
a
n
d
Forecasted Demand per kuartal
Production Adjusted Ongkos
level Inventory
*)
inventory
1 220 300 80 350 17,500
2 170 300 210 480 24,000
3 400 300 110 380 19,000
4 600 300 -190 80 4,000
5 380 300 -270 0 0
6 200 300 -170 100 5,000
7 130 300 0 270 13,500
8 300 300 0 270 13,500
Total 96,500
Kuartal Demand Inventory
Level Strategy
*)

Initial inventory: 270
Kuartal Demand Hiring Layoff Total
1 220 0 0 0
2 170 0 7,500 7,500
3 400 23,000 0 23,000
4 600 20,000 0 20,000
5 380 0 33,000 33,000
6 200 0 27,000 27,000
7 130 0 10,500 10,500
8 300 17,000 0 17,000
Total 138,000
0
200
400
600
800
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Chase Strategy
Production Incremental
level Cost
1 220 130 90 7,200
2 170 130 40 3,200
3 400 130 270 21,600
4 600 130 470 37,600
5 380 130 250 20,000
6 200 130 70 5,600
7 130 130 0 0
8 300 130 170 13,600
Total 108,800
Kuartal Demand Subcontract
Subcontract Strategy
Regular Additional Overtime Inventory Overtime Changing
Production units needed Production cost cost work force
1 220 200 20 50 -30 -30 1,500 1,000 0 2,500
2 170 200 -30 0 -30 -60 3,000 0 0 3,000
3 400 200 200 50 150 90 0 1,000 9,000 10,000
4 600 200 400 50 350 350 0 1,000 26,000 27,000
5 380 200 180 50 130 130 0 1,000 33,000 34,000
6 200 200 0 0 0 0 0 0 19,500 19,500
7 130 200 -70 0 -70 -70 3,500 0 0 3,500
8 300 200 100 50 50 -20 1,000 1,000 0 2,000
Total 101,500
Total
Add. Units
after RT+OT
Kuartal Demand
Mixed Strategy
Linear Programming

= = = = =
+ + + + =
k
t
k
t
t t
k
t
t
k
t
t
k
t
t
I c O v R f A h P r Z
1 1 1 1 1
Min
k t m P
t t
..., 2, , 1 ; = s
Subject to
k t D O P I I
t t t t t
..., 2, , 1 ;
1
= + + =

k t n O
t t
..., 2, , 1 ; = s
k t P P A
t t t
..., 2, , 1 ; -
1
= >

k t P P R
t t t
..., 2, , 1 ; -
1
= >

0 , , , , >
t t t t t
O P I R A
P, O = jml unit yang diproduksi
pada RT dan OT
A, R = jml unit kenaikan dan
penurunan
r, v = ongkos produksi per unit
RT dan OT
h, f=
c = ongkos simpan/unit/perioda
D = ramalan demand
I = jml unit inventory
m, n = kapasitas RT dan OT
Transportation Model(1)
RT OT Subcontract
1 700 250 500 500
2 800 250 500 800
3 900 250 500 1700
4 500 250 500 900
Supply capacity
Perioda Demand
Inventory awal: 100 unit
Inventory akhir yang diinginkan: 150 unit
Ongkos RT: $100/unit
Ongkos OT: $125/unit
Ongkos SC: $150/unit
Ongkos simpan: $20/unit/perioda
Unused Available
Perioda 1 2 3 4 Capacity Capacity
Produksi Inventory awal 0 20 40 60 100
RT 100 120 140 160 40 700
OT 125 145 165 185 250
SC 150 150 150 150 500
RT - 100 120 140 40 800
OT - 125 145 165 250
SC - 150 150 150 500
RT - - 100 120 40 900
OT - - 125 145 250
SC - - 150 150 500
RT - - - 100 40 500
OT - - - 125 250
SC - - - 150 500
Demand 500 800 1700 1050 1950 6000
Perioda penjualan
1
2
3
4
Sumber
Unused Available
Perioda 1 2 3 4 Capacity Capacity
Produksi Inventory awal 100 100
RT 400 300 0 700
OT 250
SC 500
RT 800
OT 250
SC 500
RT 900
OT 250
SC 500
RT 500
OT 250
SC 500
Demand 500 800 1700 1050 1950 6000
4
Sumber
Perioda penjualan
1
2
3
Management Coefficient Model(1)
Bowman Model

Work-force
W
t
= jumlah tenaga kerja pada periode t
F
t
= jumlah demand hasil ramalan pada periode t
I
*
= tingkat inventory yang diinginkan
I
t-1
= tingkat inventory pada periode t-1
f = fungsi

W
t
= f(F
t
, I
*
, I
t-1
, W
t-1
)

Production level
P
t
= tingkat produksi pada periode t
P
t
= g(W
t
, I
*
, I
t-1
, F
t
, F
t+1
, F
t+2
,)

t t t t
F I I W W
3 1
*
2 1 1 0
) ( o o o o + + + =

manajemen koefisien = o
} )] 1 /( 1 {[ ) (
1
2
0
1
*
2 1 0 +
=

+ + + + =
t
i
t t t
F i I I W P | | | |
manajemen koefisien = |
t t t t
F I I W W 49 , 0 ) ( 02 , 0 503 , 0 49 , 1
1
*
1
+ + =

} )] 1 /( 1 {[ 095 , 0 ) ( 32 , 1 62 , 9 2 , 63
1
2
0
1
*
+
=

+ + + + =
t
i
t t t
F i I I W P
0,9322 =
0,9757 =

AgregatPlanning (#3)

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