Unemployment

Bacheloi 0f Business Auministiation
Business Economics 2
Project supervisor : Mr Zaid
By: Ms Priya Mungtah

1. Explain the historical link between inflation and unemployment.
There is an inverse relationship between inIlation and unemployment. Historically it has been
proved that when an economy is weak unemployment is high and inIlation is low. On the other
hand when unemployment is low and inIlation is high. This can be represented by the Philips
curve. The curve cuts through zero on the inIlation axis. This captures the Iact that deIlation can
happen although it will be associated with high unemployment. Philips also stated that
unemployment cannot really get too zero ant the Philips curve is steeper at very low
unemployment and Ilatter at very high unemployment.
The Twentieth century may be remembered as the century oI excess. In every area, more things
were done in the Twentieth century than in any other century in history, and in many cases, more
than in all previous centuries combined. The Twentieth century saw some oI the most
destructive wars in history, the development oI the Atomic Bomb, the beginning oI air and space
travel, the colonization and decolonization oI the Third World, the rise and Iall oI Communism,
dramatic improvements in the standard oI living, the population explosion, the rise oI the
computer, incredible advances in science and medicine, and hundreds oI historically
unprecedented changes.
The Twentieth century also produced more inIlation than any other century in history. InIlation
is nothing new. Roman rulers produced inIlation in Third Century Rome by debasing their
coins, China suIIered inIlation in the Iourteenth century when the Emperors replaced coins with
paper money, Europe and the rest oI the world suIIered inIlation when gold and silver started
Ilowing into the Old World Irom the New World in the sixteenth century, and the French and
American Revolutions destroyed currencies in each oI those countries.
The Twentieth century produced the worst inIlation in human history. Every single country in
the world suIIered worse inIlation in the Twentieth century than in any century in history.


The Nineteenth Century
Amazingly enough, the Nineteenth century was a period oI deIlation, rather than inIlation. From
the end oI the Napoleonic Wars in 1815 until the start oI World War II in 1914, there was no
inIlation in most countries, and in many cases, prices were lower in 1914 than they had been in
1815. Prices Iluctuated up and down Irom one decade to the next, but overall, prices remained
stable.
There were exceptions to this rule. The United States suIIered inIlation during the Civil War,
though the United States also went through deIlation aIter the war in order to bring the economy
back onto a gold standard. The ConIederate States suIIered high inIlation since they printed
money to pay Ior the war. The eventual collapse oI the ConIederate States made their currency
worthless.
Countries were able to minimize the amount oI inIlation they suIIered during the Nineteenth
century because currencies were tied to commodities (gold and silver) whose supply increased at
rates similar to the increase in output. Price stability in gold and silver produced price stability
Ior the world.
The Nineteenth century was a period oI bimetallism. Countries chose to back their currency with
either gold or silver. The United Kingdom was on the gold standard Irom the end oI the
Napoleonic Wars until 1914. Because the British economy grew Iaster than the supply oI gold,
prices Iell in Britain during that hundred-year period.
Other countries such as France, Russia, Austria, most oI Asia, and other countries tied their
currency to silver. Since the supply oI silver was growing Iaster than economic growth,
countries on a silver standard had higher inIlation rates than countries on the gold standard.
Nevertheless, their inIlation was modest by Twentieth century Standards.
Still, other countries such as the United States, primarily Ior political reasons, tried to balance
themselves between gold and silver by tying their currency to both metals, but in the end, gold
triumphed. By the beginning oI the Twentieth century, every major country in the world had tied
its currency to gold.


The result was a century oI price and currency stability. The value oI the US Dollar relative to
the British Pound Sterling was the same in 1914 as it had been in 1830. Because currencies were
tied to gold, Iluctuations in exchange rates were minimal, rarely moving more than one percent
above or below par.
Given this situation, nothing could have prepared the world Ior the hyperinIlations and persistent
inIlation oI the Twentieth century. The purpose oI this paper is to both document inIlation in the
Twentieth century, and to analyze what went wrong.
Why will the Twentieth century be remembered as the century oI the worst inIlation in human
history? How did the Twentieth century diIIer Irom the Nineteenth century? Which countries
suIIered the worst inIlation, and why? Which countries suIIered the least inIlation, and why?
And most importantly, will the Twenty-Iirst century be another century oI inIlation? Or will the
world enjoy a century oI price and Iinancial stability similar to what occurred during the
Nineteenth century?

nflation in the Twentieth Century
The United Kingdom is the only country Ior which a complete Consumer Price inIlation record
is available Ior the entire Nineteenth century. Prices in the United Kingdom rose during the
Napoleonic Wars, and started to decline aIter 1813, returning to stable pre-war levels by 1822.
From 1822 until 1912, consumer prices showed no overall increase. There were periods oI
moderate inIlation and deIlation, but no overall inIlationary trend. This general pattern holds true
Ior other countries Ior which inIlation data are available.
The Twentieth century is quite another matter. Whereas the Nineteenth century went through
periods oI moderate inIlation and deIlation, the Twentieth century was a period oI general
continual inIlation, with some periods worse than others. The only times in which prices Iell
were the periods right aIter World War I and the Depression oI the 1930s. During all other
periods, prices generally rose.


The table below compares the inIlation experiences oI the United Kingdom and the
United States between 1820 and 2000, providing both the index Ior each country and the annual
inIlation rates during the 20-year and 10-year periods that are covered. Several Iacts are
immediately obvious.
First, the lack oI inIlation in the Nineteenth century is clearly visible. Even in the United
States during the 1860 to 1880 period when the Civil War occurred, the overall level oI inIlation
was lower than in most oI the post-World War II era. Second, both the United States and the
United Kingdom had similar inIlation experiences throughout the Nineteenth century. By
contrast, not only was inIlation higher in the Twentieth century in the United States and the
United Kingdom, but it was also more variable, both within and between countries. Greater
inIlation in the United Kingdom in the 1910s led to greater deIlation in the 1920s than in the
United States. The same was not true aIter the war. The United Kingdom had greater inIlation
than in the United States in every decade aIter 1960.
Table 1-nflation in the United Kingdom and United States
United Kingdom United States
Year ndex nflation ndex nflation
1820 4.87 6.22
1840 4.63 -0.25 5.74 -0.39
1860 4.73 0.11 5.84 0.09
1880 4.22 -0.54 7.55 1.46
1900 3.58 -0.76 7.45 -0.07
1910 3.77 0.53 9.31 2.50
1920 10.39 17.56 17.78 9.10


1930 6 -4.23 16.1 -0.94
1940 7.68 2.80 14.1 -1.24
1950 9.16 1.93 25 7.73
1960 12.64 3.80 29.8 1.92
1970 19.2 5.19 39.8 3.36
1980 69.9 26.41 86.3 11.68
1990 129.9 8.58 133.8 5.50
2000 172.2 3.26 174 3.00
The table can also show the merits oI using Purchasing Power Parity to analyzing inIlationary
diIIerences between countries. Whereas wholesale prices in the United States increased 14-Iold
in the Twentieth century, wholesale prices increased 53-Iold in the United Kingdom. Prices rose
3.75 times Iaster in the United Kingdom than in the United States during the Twentieth century.
This would predict that the British Pound should have depreciated Irom 4.85 Dollars to the
Pound in 1900 to 1.30 Dollars to the Pound in 2000, which is not Iar Irom the current rate oI
about 1.45 Pounds to the Dollar.
Countries that Suffered the Greatest nflation in the Twentieth century
Countries that suIIered the highest rates oI inIlation in the Twentieth century endured one or
more bouts oI hyperinIlation, went through decades oI high inIlation rates, or both. The German
economy, Ior example, almost collapsed in 1923 as a result oI hyperinIlation in which a meal
costing 1 Mark at the beginning oI World War I cost 1 trillion marks by the end oI 1923. Brazil,
on the other hand, had inIlation rates oI over 10 every year Irom 1951 to 1995, and over
1000 in some years, but never sank into hyperinIlation. The cumulative eIIect over the decades
was a complete and steady devaluation in the various currencies that Brazil issued. The country
with the worst inIlation record in the Twentieth century, Yugoslavia, suIIered both types oI


inIlation: double-digit inIlation during most oI the 1960s, all oI the 1970s and 1980s, and a
collapse into hyperinIlation in the early 1990s.
The table below lists the countries with the worst inIlation in the Twentieth century by
showing how many units oI its currency was needed to purchase the equivalent oI one 1900
United States Dollar in 2000. For example, since it took 2 Japanese Yen to purchase 1 US Dollar
in 1900, and 114 Yen in 2000, the Depreciation Factor Ior the Japanese Yen would be 57. The
equivalent amounts Ior the countries listed below are mind-boggling.

ighting nflation in the Twenty-first century
Will inIlation in the Twenty-Iirst century be more like the Nineteenth century or the Twentieth
century? OI course, it is impossible to predict this. Inevitably, countries that choose not to deal
with their underlying economic problems will create inIlationary problems Ior themselves. Most
countries returned to single-digit levels oI inIlation in the late 1990s, even South American and
Iormer Soviet countries, but some countries continued to inIlate. Turkey, the Congo Democratic
Republic and Angola are still suIIering high rates oI inIlation.
Nevertheless, countries do learn Irom their mistakes. Germany has made sure that it never
repeated they hyperinIlation oI the 1920s, most governments chose to control inIlation during
World War II and avoid the inIlationary Iinance oI World War I, and when the second Oil Crisis
occurred in 1979, Central Banks chose to Iight inIlation rather than succumbing to it as they had
aIter the Iirst Oil Crisis in 1973. AIter the inIlation oI the Napoleonic Wars, the United States,
United Kingdom, France and other countries made sure that paper money inIlation did not return
Ior a century. Hence, there is no reason why we cannot use the lessons oI the Twentieth century
to Iight inIlation in the Twenty-Iirst century.
istory of unemployment
BeIore the Industrial Revolution unemployment was much less oI a problem than it is now. It
existed oI course but there was not 2,88 unemployment. In an agricultural society the economy


was usually stable and it changed little Irom year to year. However Irom the 18th century the
British economy went in a cycle oI booms and slumps (or recessions). With each recession large
numbers oI people were thrown out oI work.
Unemployment in Britain
In Britain in the mid-19th century the economy boomed and unemployment was low. However
unemployment rose in the late 19th century. It is not certain how much oI the workIorce was
unemployed at that time but it was a signiIicant problem. There was also :3/07employment
when some men were not able to work a Iull week. On 13 November 1887 the unemployed held
a mass demonstration in TraIalgar Square in London. Troops were sent in to clear the square and
in the ensuing violence one man died. The event became known as Bloody Sunday.
In 1911 the government passed an act establishing sickness beneIits Ior workers. The act also
provided unemployment beneIit Ior workers in certain trades such as shipbuilding, where periods
oI unemployment were common. In 1920 unemployment was extended to most workers although
it was not extended to agricultural workers until 1936.
In Britain during the 20th century as in other Industrial countries unemployment varied. In the
years 1900-1914 the economy was stable and unemployment was quite low. However during the
1920s there was mass unemployment. For most oI the decade it hovered between 10 and 12.
Then, in the early 1930s, the economy was struck by depression. In the 1920s traditional British
industries like coal mining were already declining because oI Ioreign competition. The economic
downturn, oI course made things Iar worse. By the start oI 1933 unemployment among insured
workers was 22.8. However unemployment Iell substantially in 1933, 1934 and 1935. By
January 1936 it stood at 13.9. Unemployment continued to Iall and by 1938 it was around
10.
However in the late 1930s the North oI England remained depressed and unemployment in the
region remained very high. Traditional industries such as textiles and coal mining were severely
aIIected by the depression. Yet in the Midlands and the South oI England new industries brought


some prosperity and unemployment was lower. New industries included making cars and aircraIt
and electronics.
During the 1920s and 1930s a series oI 'hunger marches' were held Irom depression areas to
London. The Iirst was Irom Glasgow in 1922 but the most Iamous was the Jarrow march oI
1936. Labor MP Ellen Wilkinson led 200 shipyard workers in a march Irom Jarrow to London.
The hunger marches gained a great deal oI publicity Ior the plight oI the unemployed but they
did not succeed in their aim oI actually reducing unemployment.
The problem oI high unemployment was only really solved by the Second World War, which
started industry booming again. Unemployment remained very low in the late 1940s and the
1950s and 1960s were a long period oI prosperity.
However this ended in the mid-1970s. In 1973 there was still Iull employment in Britain (it stood
at 3). However shortly aIterwards a period oI high inIlation and high unemployment began. In
the late 1970s unemployment stood at around 5.5.
However in the years 1980-1982 Britain was gripped by recession and unemployment grew
much worse. It reached a peak in 1986 then it Iell to 1990. UnIortunately another recession
began in 1990 and unemployment rose again. However unemployment began to Iall again in
1993 and it continued to Iall till the end oI the century. UnIortunately unemployment rose again
with the recession oI 2009. In May 2010 unemployment in Britain stood at 8.
Unemployment in Germany
Meanwhile the depression oI the early 1930s was a disaster Ior Germany. While unemployment
was 1.4 million or 8.4 oI the workIorce in 1928 it rose to 4.8 million in 1931. By 1932 it was 6
million or about 33 oI the workIorce in Germany.
The Nazis managed to eliminate unemployment in Germany. Partly they did this by rearming
(even though this meant breaking the Versailles Treaty).


Hitler also built roads called autobahns across Germany and he built great public buildings such
as the Olympic Stadium Ior the 1936 Berlin Olympics. All this helped to reduce unemployment.
The 1950s and 1960s brought prosperity to West Germany and unemployment was low.
Unemployment in West Germany was higher in the 1980s and 1980s but was still signiIicantly
lower than in Britain. Germany suIIered badly in the recession oI 2009 and by January 2010 the
unemployment rate stood at 8.6. However by March 2011 the unemployment rate in Germany
had Iallen to 7.1.

2. Explain what do you understand by stagflation?
StagIlation is an economic trend in which inIlation and unemployment rise while general growth
oI the economy is slow. StagIlation is the combination oI recession with high inIlation.
StagIlation is not a state that occurs oIten because recession reduces demand Ior goods (because
people have less money to spend). Low demand usually leads to low inIlation.
It can be diIIicult to correct stagIlation, because Iocusing on one aspect oI the problem can
exacerbate other aspects. Many governments try to avoid stagIlation through Iiscal policy, by
promoting even and healthy growth and attempting to prevent inIlation. II stagIlation continues
long enough, it will trigger an economic recession and an ultimate selI-correction.
The causes oI stagIlation are widely debated. Some economists believe that excessive
government regulation, Ior example, contributes to stagIlation. Others believe that it may be
triggered by outside events, such as a sudden climb in the price oI a commodity like oil; this is
known as shock theory. Whatever the cause, stagIlation may take some hard work to correct, and
it can be diIIicult to ride out a period oI stagIlation.
In the case oI the 1970s, actions by the Federal Reserve Bank did lead to a recession, but
ultimately the economy stabilized, with the unemployment rate naturally selI-correcting while
inIlation went down. In the 1980s, several measures were used to promote economic growth,


which also helped the nation recover Irom the period oI stagIlation. Consumers may suIIer
greatly during stagIlation, as they Iind goods and services too expensive to aIIord, while they
cannot obtain jobs to pay Ior basic needs. Since the government may restrict the availability oI
loans in an attempt to combat stagIlation, consumers may have to drastically cut their budgets to
survive. Once stagIlation occurs it is diIIicult to deal with. The measures a government would
usually take to revive an economy in recession (cutting interest rates or increasing government
spending) will also increase inIlation. Under normal recessionary conditions inIlationary policies
are acceptable, but given already high inIlation, pushing inIlation still higher is itselI damaging.

3. ow can you explain the tradeoff between inflation and unemployment?
The natural rate oI unemployment depends on various Ieatures oI the labor market. Examples
include minimum-wage laws, the market power oI unions, the role oI eIIiciency wages, and the
eIIectiveness oI job search. The inIlation rate depends primarily on growth in the quantity oI
money, controlled by the Fed. The misery index, one measure oI the 'health oI the economy,
adds together the inIlation rate and unemployment rate. Society Iaces a short-run tradeoII
between unemployment and inIlation. II policymakers expand aggregate demand, they can
lower unemployment, but only at the cost oI higher inIlation. II they contract aggregate demand,
they can lower inIlation, but at the cost oI temporarily higher unemployment.
While there is not a tradeoII between inIlation and unemployment in the long-run, there IS a
short-run tradeoII. From the work oI Milton Friedman and Edmund Phelps, we know that
expectations oI Iuture inIlation plays an important role in the short-run tradeoII.

The Iigure at right demonstrates the relationship
between the short-run Phillips Curve and inIlationary
expectations. Suppose the economy is initially at point
"A". Earlier in this chapter, you learned that a shiIt in
the AD curve will cause a movement along the short-run


Phillips Curve. An increase in the money supply, an increase in government spending or a tax cut
could all shiIt the AD curve to the right - suppose one oI these three occurs. The rightward shiIt
in AD is associated with rising output and a rising price level. The rising price level IS an
increase in the rate oI inIlation. Rising output goes along with rising employment (and Ialling
unemployment). For these reasons, the rightward shiIt in AD will cause a movement to point "B"
in this Iigure (higher inIlation and lower unemployment than point "A").

Now, according to Friedman and Phelps, the higher ACTUAL inIlation will eventually cause
EXPECTED inIlation to rise as well. The increase in EXPECTED inIlation shiIts the short-run
Phillips Curve to the right (to SR-PC2), and the economy ends up at point "C". In your textbook,
SR-PC2 was described as a "short-run Phillips Curve with high expected inIlation", while the
original curve, SR-PC1 was described as a "short-run Phillips Curve with low expected
inIlation".

The result you should take Irom the previous Iigure is that government policies attempting to
EXPAND aggregate demand are likely to cause permanently HIGHER rates oI inIlation, without
aIIecting the long-run unemployment rate. The relationship between the short-run Phillips Curve
and inIlationary expectations described by Friedman and Phelps is stated in the Iollowing
Iormula Irom your textbook.

In the previous example, when ACTUAL inIlation exceed EXPECTED inIlation (at point "B"),
unemployment was LESS THAN the natural rate. In the long-run, actual and expected inIlation
will be equal, and unemployment will equal the natural rate (and the economy will be back on
the long-run Phillips Curve).

The Long-Run Phillips Curve -


The Iigure at right depicts the long-run Phillips
Curve. Earlier, you spent a chapter studying the
natural rate of unemployment. This was deIined to
be about 6 in the long-run, and it was shown that
the economy tends to automatically return to this
level on its own. II this is true, then the long-run
Phillips Curve is quite easy to draw - it MUST be a
vertical line at 6 unemployment!

II the long-run Phillips Curve is vertical at 6, then policymakers must be able to choose any
inIlation rate they desire along this line.



4. Paradox of thrift
For determination oI equilibrium level oI income we have:
Both saving and investment are Iunctions oI income and marginal propensity to save is greater
Than the marginal propensity to invest i.e. saving Iunction will cut the investment Iunction Irom
below. Now we will examine the eIIect oI people becoming more thriIty than beIore on the equilibrium level oI
income.

The paradox
The argument is that in equilibrium, total income ( and thus demand) must equal total output, and
the total investment must equal total saving. Assuming that saving ries Iaster as a Iunction oI
income than the relationship between investment and output then an increase in the marginal
propensity to save, ceteris paribus, will move the equilibrium point at which income equals to
output and investment equals to lower values. In this Iorm it represents a prisoner`s dilemma as
saving is beneIicial to each individual but deleterious to the general population. This is a
'paradox because it runs contrary to intuition. One who does not know about the paradox oI
thriIt would Iall into Iallacy oI composition wherein one generalizes what is perceive to be true
Ior an individual within the economy to the overall population. Although exercising thriIt may be
good Ior an individual by enabling that individual to save Ior a "rainy day", it may not be
good Ior the economy as a whole.

5. Explain Gross domestic product (GDP):
The gross domestic product (GDP) or gross domestic income (GDI) is a basic measure oI a
country's overall economic perIormance. It is the market value oI all Iinal goods and services


made within the borders oI a country in a year. It is oIten positively correlated with the std oI
living, though its use as a stand-in Ior measuring the standard oI living has come under
increasing criticism and many countries are actively exploring alternative measures to GDP Ior
that purpose. GDP can be determined in three ways, all oI which should in principle give the
same result. They are the product (or output) approach, the income approach, and the
expenditure approach. The most direct oI the three is the product approach, which sums the
outputs oI every class oI enterprise to arrive at the total. The expenditure approach works on the
principle that all oI the product must be bought by somebody, thereIore the value oI the total
product must be equal to people's total expenditures in buying things. The income approach
works on the principle that the incomes oI the productive Iactors ("producers," colloquially) must
be equal to the value oI their product, and determines GDP by Iinding the sum oI all producers'
incomes.
Example: the expenditure method:
GDP private consumption gross investment govt spending (export-import), or
In the name "Gross Domestic Product,"
"Gross" means that GDP measures production regardless oI the various uses to which that
production can be put. Production can be used Ior immediate consumption, Ior investment in
new Iixed assets or inventories, or Ior replacing depreciated Iixed assets. II depreciation oI Iixed
assets is subtracted Irom GDP, the result is called the net domestic product; it is a measure oI
how much product is available Ior consumption or adding to the nation's wealth. In the above
Iormula Ior GDP by the expenditure method, iI net investment (which is gross investment minus
depreciation) is substituted Ior gross investment, then net domestic product is obtained.
"Domestic" means that GDP measures production that takes place within the country's borders.
In the expenditure-method equation given above, the exports-minus-imports term is necessary in
order to null out expenditures on things not produced in the country (imports) and add in things
produced but not sold in the country (exports).


6. hy national income is not always a good measure of standard of living
in a country?
National income is a measure oI the total Ilow oI earnings oI the Iactor-owners through the
production oI goods & services. In a simple way, it is the total amount oI income earned by the
citizens oI a nation.
All incomes are based on production. In this sense, national income reIlects the level oI
aggregate output. The term national income carries at least 2 meaning in economics.
The total value oI the level oI aggregate output is called Gross National Product or G.N.P.
G.N.P. is a measure oI the total market value oI all Iinal goods & services currently produced by
all the citizens oI a nation within a period, usually a year.
There are a few points important here:
* It measures how much people produce.
* It counts current production only.
* It counts the level oI output with a market value.
* It relies on the market prices oI goods & services as a measure.

Uses of National ncome Statistics
Standard of Living
The per capita GNP allows us to compare the standard oI living oI diIIerent nations. In general,
a nation has a higher standard oI living iI its per capita GNP is greater than that oI another
nation.
Policy ormulation


In the compilation oI GNP statistics, the government had already gathered a lot oI inIormation oI
the economy. The government can base on these Iigures to plan and decide its policies.
nternational Comparison
By converting the local GNP Iigures into a common unit ( usually in US$ ), we can compare the
standard oI living oI diIIerent nations. It helps to show the rate oI growth or development oI
diIIerent nations.
Business Decision
The GNP Iigures can show the level oI development oI diIIerent industries and sectors oI an
economy. It helps the businessmen to plan Ior production.

Limitations of National ncome Statistics
GNP is a measure oI the overall Ilow oI goods & services, as well as to show the general welIare
oI the people.
It aims not only at the level oI .489 41 ;3 but also the 89,3/,7/ 41 ;3. It is quite correct to
show the cost oI living but there are some limitations on the GNP statistics to indicate the
standard oI living oI an economy.

Price Changes
A higher nominal GNP oI a nation may not mean that the standard oI living is better. II the
prices increase at a high rate, the real GNP may even Iall.

Voluntary Services
GNP Iigures do not include the contribution oI the voluntary agencies which raise the general
welIare, e.g. the Tung Wah group oI hospitals.
In this respect, the GNP Iigures under-estimate the level oI welIare.


The voluntary work oI housewives is also neglected by the GNP Iigures. It again under-
estimates our welIare or standard oI living.

Leisure
It is also a source oI welIare and raises our standard oI living, e.g. the welIare enjoyed with a
Chinese New Year Holiday. However, the monetary value is diIIicult to calculate.
llegal Activities
Drug traIIicking and illegal gambling are activities omitted in the value oI GNP. It is diIIicult to
determine its eIIect on the welIare oI an economy.
Undesirable Effects of Production
GNP Iigures had not considered the eIIects oI pollution, traIIic congestion on the economy.
They have lowered our standard oI living.
Problem of Comparison
Output Composition
Nations with the same GNP may have diIIerent living standard because their output composition
may be diIIerent. In general, a higher level oI consumer goods & services in the GNP indicates a
higher current level oI living standard.
Distribution of ncome & ealth
II income is obtained by a small rate oI people in a nation, the general living standard is still low
compared with a nation having a more evenly distributed income or GNP.

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