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Taiwan Watch

Vol.13, No.2

W
A
T
C
H

2011

2
0
1
1

Taiwan Watch

website: http://www.taiwanwatch.org.tw

2011132

Taiwan Watch

02
03

04

52

62

17

19

06

38

42
William Freudenburg
Robert GramlingDebra
Davidson

41

49

50

Peter Bosshard

Taiwan Watch Vol.13, No.2 / Summer, 2011

Contents

32%

2-3%
6

312

55The overall
situation in Fukushima remains very serious
25

Taiwan Watch Vol.13, No.2 / Summer, 2011

1953

(atom for peace)


1973

20113119

1979328

1982
1985
1990
1986426
3025

30
(IAEA)

34IAEA

31
;


CO2

Taiwan Watch Vol.13, No.2 / Summer, 2011

BBS

The International Atomic Energy AgencyIAEA


International Nuclear and Radiological Event ScaleINES1
717
1986 1
25

Pripyat River300

3
28

1530
25
Sarcophagus
4

1979
Susquehanna
RiverHarrisburg169
1978

Taiwan Watch Vol.13, No.2 / Summer, 2011

30

1977

80

15
7

15

50

20

10

5-6

20-30

100-200

3-1015,000

11

1957
1957

1999150
1950

3
11130
9.0
32
ECCS
12

23

312314
315315

3/29

320
13
2020-30
7
3,355

10
WTO
250

4010-100
0.2
20-3013
Taiwan Watch Vol.13, No.2 / Summer, 2011

14

25
9

10

1.

40

15,000

45,00025,000

16

15
20

40

10010

20
150

717

20

50

40

50

324

20

18

2.

WHO

50,000

19

414040
40

49
15,000
Taiwan Watch Vol.13, No.2 / Summer, 2011

11

20

21

3.
3a.

12

36

22

nightmare

32

23

24

3b.

12

27

25

20-30

10

4242

42

20

2,0004,000 28

26

4.

CNN

Taiwan Watch Vol.13, No.2 / Summer, 2011

13

200

200

14

29

20

750

2,000

370 31

30

250

50

20-30

32

25

1. 52011318

33

2.
http://www.taiwanwatch.org.tw/
issue/nuclear/SAVE/save026.htm
3.
2
4. Frequently Asked Chernobyl Questions, IAEA (
)
5. Safety case study: the Three Mile Island accident,
Nuclear Installation Safety Net

6. Pressurized water reactor, Wikipedia

7.

8. Three Mile Island Information and Facts, http://


pagerankstudio.com/Blog/2011/01/three-mileisland-information-and-facts; Three Mile Island: The
Financial Fallout, GAO

9.

10.

11.
Google

30

12.20110311

80

Taiwan Watch Vol.13, No.2 / Summer, 2011

15

13. MIT
http://www.techbang.com.tw/posts/5204fukushima-nuclear-power-plant-exploded-mitscholars-how-to-say-bNuclear Energy Crisis in
Japan, the New York Times, March 28, 2011
12
14.

2011320
2011330
Nownews WTO
2011328Greenpeace radiation team
pinpoints need to extend Fukushima evacuation zone,
Greenpeace, March 27, 2011; Japan upgrades nuclear
safety standards after plant disaster, Reuters, March
30, 2011
15. 2520113
24
2011328

16.-Q
A

16

17. Call to widen evacuation area around Fukushima,


Greenpeace, March 27, 2011
3
12 20
321
18.
2011318Japan: the 'nuclear
refugees' who may never go home, The Telegraph,
March 23, 2011From our radiation sampling team
in Japan, Greenpeace, March 26, 2011
19. Voices from Chernobyl: The Oral History of a
Nuclear Disaster, S. AlexievichThe Pompeii of the
Nuclear Age, Special Online International, April 17,
2006
20.20113
23
2011318Nownews
14330
Nownews 3
326
21. 3
24
1985419
314

22. 2319
23. No Nukes: How Three Mile Island was Disaster
for Media Credibility, Business & Media Institute,
March 22, 2011Three Mile Island, Pannsylvania
Highways
24.8.9chensumi
http://blog.roodo.com/chensumi/archives/15334149.
htmltorrent
http://blog.roodo.com/torrent/archives/15369273.

html
314
320
324
TVBS
25. 6 12
328
26.
315Nownews

314Nownews
3
14
322
/
325
27.316

28. 2427
29.328

328
http://
blog.roodo.com/elysii/archives/15507085.html
30.

31.3430
46
411
411

32. http://www.feitsui.gov.
tw
41

33.321

426

25

(Stochastic)(Non-Stochastic)

()()

(Sievert)
1(Sv)=1,000
(mSv)=1,000,000(Sv)

/mSv/yr/mSv/h
2

100/

100/ 1,2

1,000

5%201,000
1
?

()
Taiwan Watch Vol.13, No.2 / Summer, 2011

17


(mSv)
50-100
500
550
700
750
900
1,000
4,000
10,000

20,000

23

12

18

2.4 mSv/yr
50 mSv/yr
250 mSv/yr
350 mSv/lifetime
400 mSv/h
1,000 mSv/h

(<1
mSv/yr)7.9mSv
)

(100 mSv/yr)

6-16 Sv

23721

2 mSv/yr

World Nuclear Associationhttp://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf05.html


US Environmental Protection Agencyhttp://www.epa.gov/rpdweb00/understand/health_effects.html
http://researcher.nsc.gov.tw/public/9304699/Data/83270133471.ppt
http://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E8%A5%BF%E5%BC%97
http://wapp4.taipower.com.tw/nsis/web/images/tp_graph/p9.jpg

everystockphoto

Sovacool19072007

166

1.
Sovacool, BJ. 2008. The costs of failure: A preliminary assessment
of major energy accidents, 19072007, Energy Policy 3618021820
Taiwan Watch Vol.13, No.2 / Summer, 2011

19

1G

80
7011

20

1.02G

Diablo Canyon

0.76G

2008
AN ASSESSMENT

OF CALIFORNIAS NUCLEAR POWER

PLANTSPG&E

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Alliance for Nuclear

Responsibility

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: 5
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Diablo
Canyon

0.76g

1.

2. 95

Taiwan Watch Vol.13, No.2 / Summer, 2011

21

22

DCIS

28

2010

23

Taiwan Watch Vol.13, No.2 / Summer, 2011



24





8,448
l,6806,166

Yucca Mountain

2006
ACRO
750Bq/l100Bq/l7
9,000Bq/l90

18,303,000 pCi/L20,000pCi/
LRichland

Barnwell2008

Sellafield
20077Drigg
LLW Repository Ltd

Taiwan Watch Vol.13, No.2 / Summer, 2011

25

Dittmar
arXivThe Future of Nuclear Energy: Facts and
Fiction2013
20062020
2007
33065
50

AREVA
BahiaWHO
1985

26

International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear WarIPPNW

116984
116120
1000
944
92044

(BHP Billiton)

KakaduRanger uranium mine10

45%


0.66
2

2.

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/
2.64

PWR

4.34

PWR

3.36

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ABWR

2.45

OPR-1000

1.55

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0.66

27%

IEA, 2010, Projected Costs of Generating Electricity 2010


Edition
65%12%

3
15%

0.17

Yucca Mountain
2000

962

2.

4,500
5,000
2,200
Taiwan Watch Vol.13, No.2 / Summer, 2011

27

675

Zion Nuclear Power


Station

3.

1,800
3,600

0.34
3.

28

()

376

675

11

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5.
//

1571980
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102020
17
8123

14

14

Taiwan Watch Vol.13, No.2 / Summer, 2011

2025
201050%

6.
//

30


http://www.greenpeace.org/taiwan/zh/news/feature-stories/international-response-for-jp-nuclear-crisis/

16%20%
99108
44,827MW4,886MW
40,000MW
11%

7.

2009
33,858
44,453
30.2

2010

35,990

44,827

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35,990

39,941

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20082009122
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934.92
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31

Sovacool2008
103
19
66
38%

Jacobsen
2009

180

4. /
Taiwan Watch Vol.13, No.2 / Summer, 2011

Amory Lovins14

8
1.511
2,7002,700MW
1,700
1,7006,500MW
1,9001.8

9.

32

()

2,737

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()

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()

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Mark Cooper
Policy Challenges of Nuclear Reactor Construction: Cost Escalation
and Crowding Out

Green New Deal


WWFEcofys

2025
20252000
2025

2010
0.45

20002008

2008900
10.


/
/
()

2007

119,358,261

1.93

2.37

527.56

2008

117,067,247

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2009

109,693,882

2.46

2.68

238.58

2010

124,154,286

2.46

2.82

449.07

GDPGDP
4%2%2025
201050%

2.34%

4%
2025

5.

2010
Taiwan Watch Vol.13, No.2 / Summer, 2011

33

2025
8,968MW2,516MW2,000MW

4,500
3,0002MW6,000MW
2,000MW2025
8,000MW

3,467MW
300MW
2025
5,000MW

34

202516,450MW
11.

2010

2025

2025
NGO

1,945

2,502

1,500

506

2,516

8,000

---

150

150

2025
2010

2025
18,850MW

75

2,000

5,000

814.5

1,400

1,400

26%2025

---

200

200

---

200

200

3,340

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URS

26%

vs.
2025
201050%

12. VS

2000

4%

4%

2%

4%

2025

20101.5

2025
2010

202520101.2 2025201026%





202516,450MW
20258,450MW

8.01%
23.2%

10GW

6. VS
Taiwan Watch Vol.13, No.2 / Summer, 2011

2025

35

11

Die Reaktor-Sicherheitskommission
G20


;

;

36


72;

1.

2.
8

72

3.
NGO

Western European Nuclear Regulators Association, WENRA

4.

http://www.aec.gov.tw/www/news/article_print.php?id=2428&seledtype=3
Anforderungskatalog fr die Sicherheitsberprfung deutscher Kernkraftwerke
http://www.bmu.de/moratorium/doc/47211.php
WENRA First proposal about European stress tests on nuclear power plants http://www.wenra.org/extra/
news/?module_instance=1&id=29
Greenpeace EU: The stress test g leaf EU summit should discuss nuclear phase out
http://www.greenpeace.org/eu-unit/Global/eu-unit/reports-briefings/2011%20publications/3/2011-3-24%20
summit%20energy%20brieng.pdf
Taiwan Watch Vol.13, No.2 / Summer, 2011

37

1
72.4%

38

38.86%...12.85%
7.43%2

35.05%28.60%
3%7

1.
()

90

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91

66.43%

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92

66.53%

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93

67.65%

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94

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95

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99

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39
2.
98

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1.10%

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0.98%

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1.92%

3.0020
2.22%

Taiwan Watch Vol.13, No.2 / Summer, 2011

4. 99

70%
20%

(
)


(%)
(%)

2074

100

1578
31
1108
400
40
496
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50%

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525

66%1
0.6992
1

Taiwan Watch Vol.13, No.2 / Summer, 2011

15~20%
30%~35%

50%

41


William Freudenburg
Robert Gramling
Debra Davidson
William L. Brown

20041221

42

could not be sure

Scientic Certainty Argumentation Method


SCAM

1930

probabilities

43

Taiwan Watch Vol.13, No.2 / Summer, 2011


IPCC
2,000
100
U.S. National Academy of SciencesBritish Royal Society

1990

2008
Seth Borenstein

44

Climate Change Science Program15


1
White House Council on Environmental Quality

Andrew Revkin

WoburnAnne Anderson
1972

1979
184
40


198115CDC
125.3
CDC
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1986
W. R. Grace89

5,000
5.312
1155
34
1012

Taiwan Watch Vol.13, No.2 / Summer, 2011

45

34
95%5%

14
1920

1950
1990

Craig Trunbo

46

1990Ames

sound science


47

Taiwan Watch Vol.13, No.2 / Summer, 2011

48

William Freudenburg
Dehlsen ProfessorRobert Gramling
Debra Davidson

20085-6SCAMming Environmmental Policy

20102

011

201011

49
20111

20114

Taiwan Watch Vol.13, No.2 / Summer, 2011


Peter Bosshard

2010929

80

50

Charles Vrsmarty
Peter McIntyre

23

Nature

4880

65
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Peter Bosshard
www.internationalrivers.org/en/blog/peter-bosshard
Taiwan Watch Vol.13, No.2 / Summer, 2011

51

52

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Taiwan Watch Vol.13, No.2 / Summer, 2011

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Taiwan Watch Vol.13, No.2 / Summer, 2011

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Taiwan Watch Vol.13, No.2 / Summer, 2011

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Taiwan Watch Vol.13, No.2 / Summer, 2011

59

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2,500

Taiwan Watch Vol.13, No.2 / Summer, 2011

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2011
Taiwan Watch Vol.13 No.2, Summer, 2011

19247841

http://www.taiwanwatch.org.tw

Emailtwwatch@ms31.hinet.net
116774105101
(02)2935-7651

(02)2935-6977

150

19992, 5, 8, 11

1170

2010

2010

50

400

19247841
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